JUN 16 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
We're seeing more positive news out of California...
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
The Fed has backed itself not into a
corner but to the edge of a
precipice
Though the Federal
Reserve never stated its Grand Bargain explicitly, their actions have spoken
louder than their predictably self-serving, obfuscatory public pronouncements
We're
taking away your low-risk, high-yield investments by slashing interest rates to
near-zero, but we're giving you endless asset bubbles as a new way to notch
reliable gains.
The Everything Bubble includes: stocks,
housing, commercial real estate, corporate debt, junk bonds, CDOs, CLOs,
bankrupt companies, phantom companies, etc. The Fed
inflated all these assets bubbles as a "can't lose" proposition for
yield-starved institutions that can't survive on
low-risk 1% Treasury yields.
These
institutions include: public union
pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, wealth management entities,
hedge funds, banks and 401K retirement fund managers.
Asset
bubbles are not a substitute for Treasury bonds and AA-rated
corporate/municipal debt for one reason: RISK.
But: risk cannot be made to
disappear, it can only be transferred to others.
Asset bubbles are intrinsically unstable and therefore risky. All bubbles pop, period, and whoever
is holding the bag as the bubble pops will suffer catastrophic losses.
The Fed lowered rates
to bring demand forward and lower the cost of additional
borrowing by households, companies and governments. The goal : to stave off recession and encourage speculative
gambles in housing and stocks that would generate the wealth effect to further stimulate imprudent borrowing
and spending.
The Fed screamed; buy it now while
rates are near-zero. (Buying what you would have
bought next year. Right now means: bringing demand forward.)
The problem
with bringing demand forward is eventually there's no demand or credit left to buy more stuff because all the demand was brought into the present and only the most marginal borrowers (and those
who refuse to borrow more no matter how low rates go) are
left.
Goosing
stocks to ever-higher valuations even as revenues and earnings stagnate or
collapse reaches the same end-game: by the
time stock valuations have completely lost touch with reality (in March
2000 and again now in February - June 2020), the delusionally euphoric belief
that stocks will continue to loft ever higher because the Fed has our
back is only credible to the last few greater fools. Once the pool of greater fools is drained,
stocks crash.
The same can be said
of corporate DEBT,
which has reached unprecedented levels around 50% of GDP.
….
Continue
reading at:
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A press-release study showing a
cheap steroid as a 'miracle cure' for COVID were enough to trump soaring COVID
case counts in several US states, Beijing locking down 7 regions and shutting
all schools, North Korea literally blowing up relations with South Korea, and
China and India tensions escalating dramatically.
TO 'V' OR NOT TO 'V', YOU DECIDE...
See Chart:
US Retail & Food service Sales Total vs. US Industrial Production
The stock market loves it?...
Off
yesterday's lows, Small Caps are up 10%...
See Chart:
Just
wait for earnings to catch up... (in say 2023?)
See Chart:
Dow vs
Dow Consensus 12m Fwd EPS
Another
short-squeeze at the open...
See Chart:
“Most
Shorted” Stocks
But
while stocks roared higher, bond yields barely flinched...
See Chart:
UST 10Y
Yield
Gold
was also bid...(not exactly a signal for the all-clear stocks gave)...
See Chart:
The
B-dollar Index rallied after the better
than expected data...
See Chart:
Oil
prices jumped back above $38 on all the "good" news (ahead of
tonight's API inventory data)...
See Chart:
Finally,
after yesterday's panic-bid in corporate debt after The Fed's nothing-burger
statement, things opened up and traded weaker all day today...
See Chart:
High Yield
Corporate Bond ETF vs. Investment Grade
Corp Bond ETF
Some
context for the stock market's rebound vs the bond market's excitement at the
prospects for a 'V'...
See Chart:
Nasdaq vs. 10 Y Yield
….
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... the
rebound "unfolded slower than
we anticipated... We do not believe we will reach 2019 freight activity
levels until 2021 (at the
earliest)..."
SEE CHART:
….
SOURCE
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
Pat created his own phantom
& fight with his delusion by using words he ignore: Marx
Liberals
will fight for the right of Marxist
radicals to burn the American flag to show their hatred of it
but cannot tolerate working folks
flying the battle flag of the Confederacy to show their love of
it...
….
No.. he is not
puppeteer.. that is an art. His delusion is ridiculous, just stupidity
====
El ladrón cree que
todos son de su misma condición. Creen en su libertad de mentir y R
Bolton has a "very strong criminal problem"
….
Lo que más odia el ladrón y el mentiroso es la
libertad de Prensa Press Freedom Esta los expone. Pacto? creo que T y B se hacen
propaganda. Compraré el libro.
====
La mafia siciliana admira la del US y están a la espera. No son locos pero enloquecen al
What we can count on is that power-hungry politicians and
bureaucrats will continue to throw their weight around...
Pezzonovante is a colorful Sicilian term famously used in
the script for The Godfather. It basically means “big shot” [Godfather was the
best mafia-movie]
Por esto dije que los sicilianos no son locos
pero ya enloquecen el Mercado. Es cierto: son los medianos y pequeños empresarios los que enloquecen el Mdo y si la
REV prospera, ellos serán una de sus fuerzas.
En el art de
Charles Hugh Smith (arriba) se
explica brevemente la dinámica de los mercados neoliberales basado en bubbles
& pops. En la parte Economia de mi journal diario hay mucho más data
Economica que la estoy resumiento para el Capitluo “La debacle Economica del US” de mi libro “Perspectivas del Socialismo en
America”
En ese art de C H Smith se dijo: “Asset bubbles are
intrinsically unstable and therefore risky. All bubbles pop,
period, and whoever is holding the bag as the bubble
pops will suffer catastrophic losses.”.
Es lo que esta ocurriendo en el US: acaba de
suicidarse uno de los empresarios (especuladores) who was holding the bag.
Pero hay otros mafiosos diestros en el arte de
enriquecerse aun con la muerte de los infestados por la reciente pandemia. Y si
hay ‘mafiosos sicilianos’ a la espera ,
estos tendrán que seguir esperando.
“America para los americanos”, lo dice la ley de las grandes Corp USA.
Ahora si : abra el art de arriba "STOCKS ONLY GO UP" &
THE RISE OF THE PEZZONOVANTE y trate de dar respuesta a la
pregunta: How
crazy have markets become lately?
….
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How scared are
they of these markets
that
they have to intervene at every down turn?
Small caps drop over
15% in 4 days only to rally over 10% in less than 24 hours. A rally was not a
surprise after such a steep and fast drop. What probably shouldn’t have been a
surprise, but still ended up being one was how quickly the Fed felt pressured
to announce the immediate implementation of its corporate bond program (which
was announced a couple of months ago) but now they actually implemented it with
effect today. The timing is obvious. They can’t,
won’t tolerate any market downside, so scared they are of losing control of the
asset bubble they have created.
Which begs the
question: How scared are they of these markets
that they have to intervene at every down turn?
The amounts of money
thrown at this entire construct is obscene. What took hundreds of billions
during the financial crisis is now taking thousands of billions, commonly known
as trillions. The lengths and depths of their
interventions indirectly into equity markets by directly buying high yield and
now corporate bonds is a perversion of the financial system. No red line
shall remain uncrossed. Along with monetizing Treasury debt the Fed is now in
effect the nation’s piggy bank:
But it’s not just the
Fed. Yesterday’s announcement was apparently not enough as the Trump administration suddenly tossed a trillion dollar
infrastructure plan sound bite on top of the liquidity fire.
What a
circus. Not a stable market.. the
extremes getting ever more extremes continues to hold true.
I want to highlight a
few larger points that lead me to the conclusion that these markets are really
just circling the drain, repeating the same pattern over and over again in the
past few years.
Take this
simple chart of the S&P 500 and the $VIX below and let me give you my
perspective of what’s been going on here:
See Chart:
$PX S&P
large Cap Index
The larger trend: Vast prices ranges and increasing volatility while growth
remains entirely absent from the equation and nothing but liquidity driven
multiple expansion is the market’s upside price discovery path.
The 2017 rally
topping in January 2018 was driven by free money in the form of tax cuts. The
promise was for 4%-5% GDP growth to come. No such growth ever came. There was a
one quarter spike in GDP growth and that was it. Why?
Because much of the money went into buybacks and financial engineering and not
into capital investment with the expectation of coming growth. That’s
what boosted stock prices in 2018 (before reality sunk in).
No, reality
is this: Corporate tax cuts have done exactly squat for economic growth,
nothing. Corporate tax receipts plummeted and real GDP growth stayed on its
meager path:
See Chart:
FRED
GDP
couldn’t even reach the 2015 peak of this cycle. But there was another $1.5
trillion down the drain.
The Fed tried to use
the backwind of the tax cuts to try to normalize its balance sheet. Autopilot
roll-off they called it. It failed miserably and market dropped nearly 20% into
Q4 2018 before the Fed was forced to flip flop.
So 4%-5%
GDP growth didn’t materialize.
‘Not QE’
the Fed called it. A lie. Markets
took it to be QE and ran market valuations to the highest ever: 157% market cap
to GDP. No worries they said, there will be 5% to 8% earnings growth in 2020,
and that will justify the valuations.
In the
olden days future growth came about because the system was allowed to cleans
itself and new business models sprung to fruition from the ashes. Inefficient
businesses went bust, new businesses were formed. Corporate debt was reduced.
That’s called a cleansing and new innovation.
But that’s not what’s
happening here. The opposite is happening. Debt is
exploding and by next year US debt to GDP will be perhaps as 135%-140% and corporate debt north of 50% debt to GDP:
See Chart:
FRED: Non financial Corporate Business vs Federal Debt
This is what we call A ZOMBIFIED ECONOMY
See Chart:
US: Rising
share of Comp with debt servicing costs that are higher th –profits
It’s a spiral out of control that is masking what is really going on:
The structural economy is circling the drain and zombifying the economy will
only clog it up with dire consequences to come, consequences for now as markets
are still busy chasing every liquidity headline.
….
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Short News on
US Econ
“Oil markets move in waves of fear and greed, and after greed has
enjoyed a long joy ride, fear has started sprouting again.”
====
Here is Irony but in US History is a FACT: It happens with FDR &
will happen again
"...in the short run, it grows ever harder not to buy stocks.
In the long run, this will look like a mistake."
….
It won’t be a Marxist radical change, but a socialist one with Coops
& State running the best health, education
& house for all. It won’t be the FED
but People’s Revolution organized
by Labor, middle size entrepreneurs
+ big Capital involve in Production (not speculation) they will create
the new America. The FED (or coalition of FEDs if decentralized from the current one) will serve the PUBLIC
NEED not the voracity OF PRIVATE GREED (from
billionaires). This new system will not be result of electoral frauds like the
one in process. It will be the result of REFEREMDUMS with
people in Action as it is starting now
on. The illegitimate Govt born in NOV will fall (we will demand 50% + 1 of the
total National electorate to recognize the new Gvt. Their lack of legitimacy =
poor gobernability and high social conflicts. It will fall: bye bye duopolico
system. The 3rd option party will create context for homeostasis & reconciliation. At the beginning we will
give them 20% of political power (don’t matter how votes they get in public
elections). The winner has to get 50% of votes & the 2nd party 30%
of power(doesn’t matter how many votes they in formal elections). This proposal
is now debated. Meanwhile we will not
participate in NOV Election. We favor ABSTENTION. People-REV
will win!!
====
The order
bans chokeholds and calls for
a federal
database of police misconduct...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Solidarity among dependent
countries are forging their steel with hits & fire in return
Last month's successful offload
involving 5 Iranian tankers was a test run setting up for more...
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Despite
the expectations of storm-related drop in inventories, crude stocks unexpectedly rose last week...
US crude inventories
are expected to have fallen last week amid weather-related Gulf of Mexico
production losses and a drop in imports.
API
·
Crude +3.857mm (-3.5mm exp)
·
Cushing
-3.289mm
·
Gasoline +4.267mm (-2.2mm exp)
·
Distillates
+919k (+3.1mm exp)
Despite
the expectations of storm-related drop in inventories, crude stocks unexpectedly rose last week. This is also
the 11th straight week of distillates builds...
SEE CHART:
The lifting of some lockdown
restrictions is primarily impacting gasoline consumption, not industrial
diesel demand yet.
WTI hovered just above $38 ahead of the data, but dropped back below it after the surprise build...
SEE CHART:
….
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
-South Korean Military Warns Pyongyang Will
Pay if it Takes Real Military Action as Tensions Escalate
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
ALAI NET ORG
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INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-
Trump & Fox… Peddling Fake News for
Military Coup By Finian
Cunningham
-
Edward Bernays & Why The System Needs
Your Compliance By Mac Slavo
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VOLTAIRE
NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
Syrian and Russian troops have
resumed their strikes against jihadist groups in Idlieb
In response, Al Qaeda assembled under
its umbrella five distinct groups known as Fathboutou ("Be
firm"). They have a contingent of 30,000 fighters; receive funding and
weapons from NATO; and have appointed a joint command structure, as follows:
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CROSS
TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
Max and Stacy discuss the conspiracy
theorists now promising the world will end on the 21st of June. In light of
stock market investors going euphoric for bankrupt, soon to be dead companies,
could this set a new parabolic rally in motion? Max talks to James Turk
of Goldmoney.com about the end of the “exorbitant
privilege.” Is it here? Yale economist Stephen Roach sees the collapse of
the dollar, so could hyperinflation happen?
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis
that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO
allies
- The
“Digital Billionaires”, the Militarization of Law Enforcement, the Surveillance
State By John Steppling
- Curious
Coincidence: The Birth of Donald Trump and the Struggle to Abolish Nuclear
Weapons By Thomas Gaulkin,
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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