miércoles, 24 de junio de 2020

JUN 23 ND SIT EC y POL



JUN 23 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

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ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Quite a day...
  • Navarro dump - US-China trade deal "is over"
  • Trump pump - US-China trade deal "fully in tact"
  • Kudlow pump - "absolutely, definitely" no second lockdown due to virus
  • Fauci slump - "disturbing surge" in infections
  • Fauci pump - "promising" vaccine is imminent
Which of course ended with Nasdaq higher (for 8th straight day - longest streak since Dec - and up 19 of the last 22 days)...NOTE how the Nasdaq was instantly bid and Small Caps dumped at the cash open...
See Chart:

The last time FANGs were this overbought, it did not end well...
See Chart:

Despite equity gains, bonds were also bid in the belly of the curve...

See Chart:

Gold was bid most of the day
Pushing to its highest since 2012...
See Chart:

The B-dollar Index chopped up and down on the various headlines but ended lower on the day...
See Chart:

Big roundtrip in WTI today ahead of tonight's inventory data...
See Chart:

Finally, the S&P 500 trades at 22x next 12m consensus EPS and Tech at 25x...
See Chart:

Bonds ain't buying it...
See Chat:
Nasdaq   VS  10y Yield

And gold's starting to flash red...
See Chart:
USD vs FIAT  vs USD vs GOLD

And in case you wondered, since the start of May, the S&P 500 is up 250 points during the overnight session and down 23 points during the day session...
See Chart:
S&P500  Absolute Performance since May
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...even if COVID-19 disappeared today,
the economy isn’t going back to “normal.”
CHECK THESE SUBTITLES:
Past Speculative Frenzies
Is the present frenzy in recession different?
The optimists tell us that there is no frenzy.
The Pandemic Exposes the Bubbles
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COVID-19 may have spread from China, but the COVID currency shock looks like it will be made in America...
sudden stop – long associated with capital flight out of emerging markets – often exposes deep-rooted structural problems that can impair economic recovery.
No country can afford to squander its saving potential – ultimately, the seed-corn of long-term economic growth. That’s true even of the United States, where the laws of economics have often been ignored under the guise of “American exceptionalism.”
Thanks to the US dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” as the world’s dominant reserve currency, this borrowing is normally funded on extremely attractive terms, largely absent any interest-rate or exchange-rate concessions that might otherwise be needed to compensate foreign investors for risk.
America is leading the charge into protectionism, deglobalization, and decoupling. Its share of world foreign-exchange reserves has fallen from a little over 70% in 2000 to a little less than 60% today. Its COVID-19 containment has been an abysmal failure. And its history of systemic racism and police violence has sparked a transformative wave of civil unrest. 
Against this background, especially when compared with other major economies, it seems reasonable to conclude that hyperextended saving and current-account imbalances will finally have actionable consequences for the dollar and/or US interest rates.
To the extent that the inflation response lags, and the Federal Reserve maintains its extraordinarily accommodative monetary-policy stance, the bulk of the concession should occur through the currency rather than interest rates. Hence,I foresee a 35% drop in the broad dollar index over the next 2-3 years.
[ZH: Is that what gold is pricing?]
SEE CHART:
USD vs. Fiat & USD vs Gold
Shocking as that sounds, such a seemingly outsize drop in the dollar is not without historical precedent. The dollar’s real effective exchange rate fell by 33% between 1970 and 1978, by 33% from 1985 to 1988, and by 28% over the 2002-11 interval. COVID-19 may have spread from China [ Xenophobia?]  but the COVID currency shock looks like it will be made in America.
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

COVID may be "less deadly" than originally thought and there may have been as many as 8.7 million cases during the last three weeks of March, versus roughly the 100,000 that were reported...
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A new study out of Penn State indicates that Covid-19 may have spread much faster in the U.S. than first originally thought - and therefore is likely less deadly than originally thought. 
The initial rate of cases was likely undercounted due to testing issues, asymptomatic cases and some cases with alternative symptoms, according to many epidemiologists. 
The study "estimated the detection rate of symptomatic COVID-19 cases using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s influenza-like illnesses (ILI) surveillance data over a three week period in March 2020."
SEE CHARTS

The study estimated that at least 9% of the state of New York's population was infected by the end of March. The state found a 13.9% infection rate after antibody testing 3,000 residents. 
SEE CHARTS

The study emphasizes that the spread of the virus may be a far better focus than its death rate. It also concludes that the virus could have been here in the states and working to infect earlier - and quicker - than anticipated. 
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No noose is good noose...
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Polluting the environment plus insane intentions
"A more recent test with AF-6 was carried out on Apr. 2, 2020..." 
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Well-intentioned BLM supporters are getting had. The majority of those either using the BLM phrase or supporting the organization are being used on behalf of a violent, chaotic insurrection...
“You can’t make an omelet without breaking eggs I n George Orwell’s day — the 1930s — that’s what supporters of violent, Marxist revolution often said in justification. [ Violence from the top creates violence from the bottom ]
Orwell, the author of Nineteen Eighty-Four, had a simple response: “Where’s the omelet?”  [ Purpose: keeping ruling power vs. Radical Change ]
An honest look at the omelet offered by Black Lives Matter is long overdue, particularly for BLM Chicago.
What do they want? Do its supporters and apologists know?
Where’s their omelet?
One thing BLM says should be universally accepted, though for different reasons. “Silence is violence,” they say.
Indeed it is.
If the two-thirds of Americans who believe all lives matter continue to remain silent,expect more violence from many causes.
·         Racism will surge thanks to passions deliberately inflamed by identity politics.
·         Poverty will soar as businesses flee Chicago and other big cities.
·         Shrunken budgets and emptied prisons will overload police departments.
·         The Ferguson effect will embolden thugs, initially, but bad apples in the police will later respond with a vengeance.
·         And trained Marxists will pursue their dream of VIOLENT INSURRECTION.
THERE’S YOUR OMELET.
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It’s been decades since anyone took conflicts of interest seriously
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One more threat to  make the polluted environment worse
...gas resources around the world will see development delays, with the construction of planned regasification facilities also at risk. Coal may benefit as a result.
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A CHANCE FOR A 3RD OPTION to DEFEAT ABSENTISM
Hugo Adan
6/23/20
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US coronavirus cases climbed just 1.1% on Tuesday, less than yesterday
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

A peaceful exit from power is that we want from Trump. But it is a threat if said by T
Biden campaign seized on the statements, to which Trump responded:"I would only meet with Maduro to discuss one thing: a peaceful exit from power!"
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It is an insulting threat that carries implicit the attack of National sovereignty of the State-Nation of Venezuela.  For respect to himself & his country, Maduro should not accept such conversation.  Just get ready to respond any attack from the US with the support of RU and China. It is the conversa Maduro  needs asap Besides: VEN oil is not in sale. Then: Maduro conversation with Trump must be declared: CANCELED. 
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"This is a big..." 
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

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ALAI NET ORG
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

-China Right on Nukes  By Finian Cunningham
- Victoria Nuland Alert  By Philip Giraldi
- Cancelling America   By Paul Craig Roberts
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VOLTAIRE NET ORG   https://www.voltairenet.org/en

News in Brief
When Italy was hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, she called out for help but the European Union failed to respond. For its part, Germany callously banned the export of masks.
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It is fair to say many of the protesters on the streets of the US want social justice. Nominally speaking, their message is a positive one. It’s how that message is translated into concrete political demands that’s the problem. And what happens if you don’t agree with those political demands?
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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