JUN 22 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Stocks fell Friday on the heels of various virus
headlines and Apple's decision to re-close some stores. Things have got worse in terms of cases and
hospitalizations over the weekend (but the median age
of positive tests is plummeting as test volumes soar)...
See Chart :
WHO's director general Tedros Adhanom said: "The pandemic
is still accelerating... We know that the pandemic is much more than a
health crisis, it is an economic crisis, a social crisis and in many countries
a political crisis... Its effects will be felt for decades to come."
...but this time stocks are bid...
See Chart
Nasdaq Composite is up 7 days in a row - its longest
streak since Dec 2019 - a new record closing high. However, today's rally
merely filled the gap from a week ago and was unable to breakout...
See Chart:
FAANGM is now at a stunning 24% share of S&P
market cap...
See Charts:
It's different this time.
It's worse, much much worse.
It's worse, much much worse.
Since the open on Friday, something has changed -
Gold and bonds are bid as stocks are lower...
See Chart:
Gold , Dow & 10Y Yield
Notably, THE VIRUS FEAR TRADE (long food,
short leisure) surged up to its highest since May...
See Chart:
Treasury yields ended the day higher after pushing
lower overnight to one-week lows..
See Chart:
Bonds and stocks remain entirely decoupled...
See Chart:
Nasdaq vs 10Y
Yield
The B-Dollar Index fell & reversed all gains from Thursday and Friday...
See Chart:
Spot Gold topped $1760 today - within $2 of May's
multi-year highs...
See Chart:
And finally, as if you needed another example, Bloomberg notes that stocks worldwide are in the midst of an “epic
divergence” from the economic-policy outlook
See Chart:
Global stock-bond yield gap
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In Economics: Does US depend on China?
It seems both depend on each other
“It’s over,”
...just kidding!
The U.S. remains engaged with China over the phase one trade deal signed last January and according to
trade negotiator Bob Lighthizer the
deal is going well.President Trump has made similar comments just
recently."
The response has instant spike in
stocks..
SEE CHART:
US: It is over vs. just kidding!
And yuan...
SEE CHART:
This follows various threats of US-China decoupling from the
White House, and also an increasing anti-dollar rhetoric from Chinese
officials.
Futures are getting hammered...
SEE CHART:
And Yuan collapsed.
Gold is bid.
And UST bond 10 Y Yields plunged...
Trump will not be pleased at the market drop - but then
again, that's Powell's problem now! The question is why now? Which makes us
wonder if the Trump admin realizes 'we, the people'
need a non-domestic enemy to focus on and distract from the unrest at home.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-yuan-plunge-after-navarro-says-china-trade-deal-over
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For the financial markets, the period
since late February has been a watershed - a genuinely epic sequence of action
and reaction.
By Tony Pasquariello, global head of HF Sales at Goldman
This sequence wasn’t
constructed to represent a cohesive theme or directional bias, but I think we
can agree on the following: this period has been
epochal. we’re passing the early chapters. and, perhaps most
importantly, the interplay between the financial markets and policy has been
truly enormous and without precedent; the undeniable fact that government has
been an overwhelming force in markets is shot through the list below:
….
Read the 17 observations in the
SOURCE at the end
….
Finally, these were some of the more striking charts from
H1’20:
18. for better or for worse, this clearly illustrates the top heavy nature of S&P
500 returns YTD (credit to Cole
Hunter, GIR)
SEE CHART:
19. despite an absence of available yield, we live in a world
of record inflows to money market
funds (link).
I find it a little interesting that we’re seeing a tentative inflection lower here:
SEE CHART:
Equity vs BONDS vs Money Market
20. an updated chart of the y/y % change in US money supply (credit William Marshall in GIR. your interpretation of
this chart may hinge on whether you’re a first or second derivative kind of
person:
SEE CHART:
Money Stocks : M2
21. yes, there’s been some significant rotation of late in
things like leaders vs laggards. for example, you
can see there was some recent retracement in names were hit hard by the health
crisis (see white line below, which is a ratio vs S&P). that
said, note that the stocks most leveraged to the stay-at-home theme continue to outpace most
everything else in the market (blue line):
SEE CHART:
G 393 : COVID PAIRS
22. last but not least, through thick and thin, the big S&P bull trend line
still holds:
SEE CHART:
SPX
INDEX: Compare Actions
….
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The Deep State is destructive, but it’s great for the people in
it. And, like
any living organism, its prime directive is: Survive!
CHECK THESE SUBTITLES
The
State
The Deep State
Who Is
Part of the Deep State?
The American Deep
State is a real, but informal, structure that has arisen to not just profit
from, but control, the State.
These are what you might call the running dogs.
The Deep State is
destructive, but it’s great for the people in it.
Is it a
conspiracy, headed by a man stroking a white cat? I think not
CONCLUSION
The American Deep
State rotates around the Washington Beltway. It imports America’s wealth as tax
revenue. A lot of that wealth is consumed there by useless mouths. And then, it
exports things that reinforce the Deep State, including wars, fiat currency,
and destructive policies. This is unsustainable
simply because nothing of value comes out of the city.
….
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With gold pushing up to multi-year
highs (as the dollar begins to sink), many are asking: where to from
here?
….
USD vs FIAT & USD vs
GOLD
SEE CHART
Goldman believes inflation
will need to move above the Fed’s 2% target and this move to be met with a
muted policy response.
Historically, gold’s relationship with inflation is non-linear. Gold does not display a strong correlation
with inflation while the latter is moderate but becomes strongly correlated
when inflation gets above a certain threshold. Gold also tends to go up
moderately in deflationary environments.
In fact,
we find that what matters most is
the deviation of inflation from its trend, rather than its absolute level (see
Exhibit 11 and Exhibit 12).
SEE CHARTS:
Additionally, Goldman finds that gold is a useful addition to any portfolio
in periods of high inflation.
Specifically,
we looked at gold and equity’s performance over previous inflationary
environments. We divide the inflationary regimes by looking at deviation of YoY
inflation rates vs. its 10 year rolling average.
SEE CHART:
Gold tends
to outperform equities in environments where inflation go above trend
We find
that gold tends to outperform equities in high inflation regimes as well as in
deflationary environments, whereas equities do better when inflation is
moderate.
There is another
shoe that needs to drop – a breakdown in the US dollar. Several people in the
mainstream have warned about this in recent weeks. Yale
economist Stephen Roach’s warned that “the era of the US dollar’s ‘exorbitant
privilege’ as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end.” Meanwhile, Guggenheim
Investments Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd said that
while “there are no signs the world is questioning the value of the US dollar”
right now, it’s clear that the greenback is “slowly losing market share as the
world’s reserve currency.”
….
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"We
are now returning to an OW stance, up from N. We believe that recent Cyclical
rotation is ending."
Today, it's
JPMorgan's turn.
First, some
background: with just over a week to go until the end of the 2nd quarter, the
Dow is on track for its largest quarterly gain since Q1 1987, the S&P 500
since Q4 1998, and the Nasdaq since Q4 2001. According to Goldman, "we’ve just seen the strongest rally out of a
bear market since ... 1932."
According to
JPMorgan's equity strategist Mislav Mateja the recent
Cyclical rotation is ending, noting that "we called for a tactical
rotation into Cyclicals and Value style on 18th of May, but believe the trade
is largely done, and have recently advised to close it." Matejka also
notes "that US Value/Momentum baskets appear not
to be making gains anymore" and adds that "value will struggle to
sustainably rebound as long as bond yields do not confirm the rotation"
SEE CHART:
US value
vs Momentum baskets ytd
Said otherwise, just
like Goldman did with European stocks, so JPM's prop
desk has now accumulated a large enough inventory of US stocks, and only after
the biggest stock market rally since the Great Depression, and after the Nasdaq
rose for 7 days in a row - its longest streak since the late 2019 meltup - and
up 18 of 21 days, is JPM telling its clients to buy all those US stocks, and
especially FAAMGs that it has to sell. Luckily for JPM, there are more than
enough Robinhooders who will gladly eat up everything it has to sell.
….
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
We have
reached a moment in history when
all of the cycles are ending, all of the bubbles are bursting, and we
are going to experience the consequences
of all the very foolish decisions that we have been making for
decades...
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The lower number is 'a welcome piece of evidence,' he
says...
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Is Rick Wilson's cooler next?
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A house
that is divided will surely fall, and the future of America looks extremely bleak if we continue down
this path..
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The moment we've all been waiting for...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
WW3
& SICKNESS OF PARANOIAC-XENOPHOBIC MILITARISM
Hugo
Adan
6/22/20
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RELATED:
"Such things have already
happened to many Russian businesses and financial institutions. We have to make
preparations early – real preparations, not just psychological
preparations..."
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Iran's naval chief emphasized forces regularly
operate beyond Iranian waters
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
Nixon-Trump vs. the Strategy of Tension By Pepe Escobar
Trump warns Senate Republicans to stay loyal By Kathryn K
Beginning of the end for the Fed’s dollar? By Alasdair Macleod
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VOLTAIRE
NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
Reshaping the Greater Middle
East
by
Thierry Meyssan
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Rediseño del Gran Medio Oriente
por Thierry Meyssan
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CROSS
TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
Max and Stacy discuss the latest data
from the US Federal Reserve, which proves that the Fed itself creates some of
the inequality causing unrest across the world, as more and more money-printing
begets more and more unrest. In the second half, Max talks to investor Michael
Pento of PentoPort.com about the state
of the Fed’s balance sheet and whether or not he agrees with Yale economist
Stephen Roach, who forecasts a dollar collapse.
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
‘Orgy
of Wealth’ Continues as US Billionaires Grew $584 Billion Richer Over Last 3
Months While 45 Million Lost Their Jobs By Jake Johnson
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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