JUN 25 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
"This isn't confined to a
handful of states anymore...It's going to be difficult now to get this under
control."
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
TRUMP
CAN WIN RE-ELECTION : piece of cake to him, BUT
Most Presidents not convicted
in Court won re-election.
Hugo
Adan. 6/25/20
That is Why I said Trump can
win re-election, if the Supreme-Court allowed.
FDR won the 3rd
consecutive election, he wasn’t convicted but Supreme Court but his 3rd
victory was nullified for extra-legal
micro & macro reasons. FDR accepted such decision.
My comments are based
on:
In
the relentlessly circular world of
MMT, government is the source of all finance and in effect all wealth...
….
....
Economy
& Politis don’t move in closed circles, they move in spiral & toward a better
way of political system. That is called “development” or progressive
move.
What happen with FDR
is that Law prohibited a 3rd round . Even when he win the election,
the Supreme Court canceled his election for
extra “legal reason” though the internal ¯o-political reason were most important
factors to nullify results (the opposition accused FDR of being communist).
BUT the main reason was the bomb to JAPAN and the
chances of Stalin to respond (they were about to produce a nuke-bomb).
The Supreme Court
used this ‘legal reason’ to nullify the
third victory of FDR and new round of elections were set.
Trump is
going the 2nd round (re-election) and there not real legal charges on him.
Trump was help by Mrs Pelosi’s fake impeachment.
Besides, comparing
the US with other world nations affected
by the pandemia and Economic crisis, Trump accept that US is not good but is not in horrible situation compared to big west nations.
Now he can simply
use the machine to print USD and target
key sectors of the National electorate. He may start with the young people who
finished University studies and have big debts. So, with a decree of ZERO
DEBT he will get many, many new votes for him.
The same with other
sectors of the population (his advisors may’ve working on other isues).
Some political
scientist can create an index with the 8 requisites for real democracy in
America [.Source? How much you pay?..] to give science base for new opinion POLLS , now manipulated by the billionaires supporting Biden.
If so, in less
than a month Trump can change the direction of votes among those who decided to go to the
ballot-box. That will assure his victory.
In short: if well guided,Trump can easily win his
re-election.. piece of cake. Politic Scientist
can do this Index need & in 15 days he can get it for no
less than $2 mill USD.
Presidential-Election
depends on money.. on right inversion. So, business is business, the political
scientist will say... and he will pay it.
See this way his
victory will be piece of cake.
Now Trump is 17 point behind Biden but with
the ZERO DEBT ++ they will be tie at the end of
July and at the end of Aug Trump will be
5 points ahead and so on.
In the
coming debate with Biden,.. Trump is expected to continue his attacks on Libya’
issue: the stolen GOLD from Gadhafi ‘ Nation.
Plus his complicity in the assimilation of 4 members of
Benghazi US Embassy and the PACT with Saudis to create ISIS, the Saudi terrorist group to destroyed Syria.
There are of course many other felonies in which the VP Biden was involved.
Trump has
already started this campaign and he need to present clear evidences during the Public Debates
Coming. There are other
felonies committed by VP Biden when he was in power. Trump may show No mercy with Biden , and he will wins. Piece of cake to him.
....
BUT
There are two factors that will decree his failure: First the war with China & 2nd the war with VEN & IRAN. China & RU are allies & are in much better economic and political situation than the US with Trump regime. Our Economy is really in horrible situation and Biden can get the data to confront Trump on this issue. Trump political cohesion inside his party REPs is going down. His misuses of the military (crimes against blacks) proved his inefficiency as Govt and total lack of minimal ethics (mobilize the military for his personal political interest) revealed no sense of moral. He lost not only the black electorate but also the young whites and there is not way to rescue them, even if he decree the ZERO DEBT.
With this internal division of the nation no way to confront an external war with China (even if the Senate & House approve this war) the chances to get national cohesion for war are weak and US-military division will start once this war with China-RU is delared. This will be WW3 with nukes & millions of casualties in both sides. No winner is expected, MAD will prevail.
Many pandemias will decimate the rest of global population not in war. Many US embassies & US companies at global level will be bombed by civilian brigades. We are not ready for WW3. It was a very stupid act to send 3 destroyers to foreign waters.
Simple solution to this chaos: bring the 3 destroyers back to US and asap. Trump has to stop also his threats to VEN & IRAN. There is not context for WW3, much less for fascistic dictatorship.
….
….
Let’s
go back to:
Modern monetary theory (MMT)
has a new champion, and a new bible. Stephanie Kelton, economics professor at SUNY Stony Brook, is
the author of The
Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People's Economy.
Professor Kelton was an advisor to the Bernie Sanders presidential campaigns,
and her ideas increasingly find purchase with left progressives.
Kelton's essential argument, first
advanced by MMT guru Warren Mosler in the 1990s, is quite simple:
federal spending is unconstrained by revenue. Taxes
function only to regulate demand and hence inflation; federal borrowing
functions only to regulate interest rates. Sovereign government
treasuries can create and spend as much money as they like to stimulate growth,
especially when the economy is underperforming. If inflation spikes, taxes can
be imposed to take money out of the economy.
Thus the only constraints on unlimited government
spending are political.
THREE QUICK POINTS:
MMT is not modern.
MMT is not monetary.
MMT is not a theory.
In the relentlessly circular world of MMT, government is the source of
all finance and in effect all wealth. Taxpayers don't fund
government, because after all government first provides the "tokens"
(currency) taxpayers need to pay their IRS bills! Government funds taxpayers,
which is broadly speaking what the American left really believes. It's a
version of Obama's "You didn't build that" rewritten into policy.
But let’s not kid
ourselves: the US federal government already finances its operations of MMT.
The promise of something for nothing will
never lose its luster. MMT should be
viewed as a form of political propaganda rather than any kind of real economics
or public policy. And like all propaganda, it must be fought with
appeals to reality. MMT,
where deficits don't matter, is an unreal place.
----
Read the full article at:
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In states like Arizona, Texas,
Oklahoma, and South Carolina, where the virus is spreading rapidly, JPM's
spending tracker is starting to slow.
Two weeks ago, in the immediate aftermath of renewed fears
that various sunbelt states are seeing growing coronavirus infections, we
showed that restaurant booking as measured by
Opentable seated diners posted its biggest daily drop on its path to gradual
recovery since the lockdowns were imposed in March.
SEE CHART:
Since then there was a modest
stabilization in the trend, until another sharp drop took place on Monday amid
new concerns of rising cases in states such as Texas, Arizona, Florida and
California.
SEE CHART:
That said, two one-day drops in the closely watched
restaurant index hardly is confirmation that the economy is starting to
shutdown again. While that may be true, according to JPMorgan's tracker of
spending on the bank's own debit and credit card, the bank said today that it
can now detect a relative slowdown in spending growth in recent weeks in states
where the virus has begun to spread again, even if differences across states
are fairly subtle so far.
However, in states like Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma, and South Carolina,
where the virus is spreading rapidly, the tracker is up by less than
4%-pts. Still, total spending has
been increasing even in these
places thus far.
places thus far.
Elsewhere in the data, JPM notes that recent rebounds in spending in states like
New York have been concentrated among Millennial
and Gen Z cardholders and in card-present spending, suggesting that younger
generations are leading the way in returning to normal offline life.
SEE CHART:
Chase Consumer Card spending by State
and card presence
SEE CHART:
….
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----
Meanwhile the Fed is buying around
$350MM in corporate bonds/ETFs every single day.
….
After three months of record gains, which saw an increase of
$3 trillion to $7.2 trillion, the Fed's balance sheet
has posted its second consecutive weekly decline since the start of the corona
crisis according to the latest H.4.1
statement.
SEE CHART:
Meanwhile, with the S&P500
closely tracking the Fed's balance sheet in the past three months, which has
served as the primary factor behind the rebound in the market, the latest
weekly drop coincides with the period of heightened volatility in the past
three weeks.
SEE CHART:
The shrinkage comes at a time when
the Fed's monthly liquidity injection has been tapered
to approximately $120 billion, which suggests that
while the balance sheet is likely to resume growing in the next week, it will
be at a more gradual pace.
SEE CHART:
Finally, those keeping track of how
much corporate bonds the Fed has bought, the latest total for the Fed's
Corporate Credit Facilities LLC which includes purchases
of both ETFs and corporate bonds, the Fed disclosed that as of June 25, there
was $8.3 billion in book value of holdings (the Fed does not break out how many
actual bonds it has bought vs ETFs), and increase of $1.7 billion from the $6.6
billion a week prior. Which means that the Fed is now buying around $350MM in
corporate bonds and/or ETFs every single day.
SEE CHART:
….
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..big banks will be required to suspend share buybacks and cap dividend
payments at their current level for the third quarter of this year.
BANK STOCKS ARE NOT HAPPY...
SEE CHART:
Wells Fargo and BofA are the worst
hit after hours...
SEE Chart:
Discover, Capital One, Barclays, and
Amex face the biggest loan losses...
SEE CHART:
Credit Suisse is the most exposed to
losses from Commercial Real Estate...
SEE Chart:
The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday released the results of
its stress tests for 2020 and additional sensitivity analyses that the Board
conducted in light of the coronavirus event.
"The banking system has been a source of strength during this
crisis," Vice
Chair Randal K. Quarles said, "and the results of our sensitivity analyses
show that our banks can remain
strong in the face of even the harshest shocks."
Full Results below:
2020-dfast-results-20200625 by Zerohedge on Scribd
….
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
"Take a full glass of
coronavirus, shake in a shot of riots and another of this defund police notion,
and everything goes crazy."
====
Once you
allow your economy to become dependent on extremes of debt, leverage, inequality, legalized looting,monopoly,
pay-to-play politics and speculative asset bubbles, a depression is inevitable.
Once you
allow your economy to become dependent on extremes of debt, leverage,
inequality, legalized looting, monopoly, pay-to-play politics and
speculative asset bubbles, a depression is inevitable. The only question is "when," and
that's been answered, though nobody wants to hear it: 2020 and beyond.
It didn't
have to end this way. If our leadership
/ Power Elites had acted to reduce all these painfully obvious speculative
extremes, dependencies and fragilities and made even modest efforts to limit It didn't have to end this way. If
our leadership / Power Elites had acted to reduce all these painfully obvious
speculative extremes, dependencies and fragilities and made even modest efforts
to limit the exploitation of predatory parasites that
generated unprecedented inequality and corruption over the past 12 years, the
economy would have been much less brittle / fragile..
SEE CHART:
Unfortunately, the pandemic chart I
composed on February 2, 2020 is still playing out, increasing uncertainty.
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/exponential-virus2-20%20%281%29_0.png?itok=PyxbaULJ
What's the
price of systemic fragility and uncertainty? I
fear it will be steeper than we're prepared to pay.
….
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After
yesterday's chaotic headlines, today was far calmer - despite similar headlines
- making for one of the lowest
range days of the year, until...
See Chart:
Until a huge
buy program hit at 1530ET...(no news catalyst)
See Chart:
NYSE
TICK
Sparking
a dramatic short-squeeze...
See Chart:
Lifting
everything ahead of tonight's stress test. Four major buying moves in today's
actions but the late-day one is the most notable for its total lack of
reason...TOTAL PANIC BID!!!!
See Chart:
Yes, small caps rallied 1.5% in
the last hour of the day on nothing but bad news from a virus perspective and
no news on anything else. 9th positive day in the last 10 for Nasdaq.
This seems to sum things up
rather well.
The big
banks all jumped nicely at the open on the Volcker Rule easings (ahead of
tonight's stress test results)...
See Chart:
Notably
financials outperformed (driving Small Caps) despite a flattening in the yield
curve...
See Chart:
And
derivatives are implying a cut
next and then a flat dividend yield from banks for the next 12
months
See Chart:
Bonds
were barely alive today with the long-end very marginally lower in yield...
See Chart:
The
B-Dollar Index ended marginally higher, but slipped late on back into the red
on the week...
Oil
prices rebounded today but WTI was unable to get back to the $40 Maginot Line...
See Chart:
But
gold ended the day marginally lower, but appears to be coiling for a move...
See Chart:
And finally, sometimes you just gotta know when to fold 'em... Warren Buffett is going through “the
worst patch” of his investing career, Jim Bianco, president
and founder of Bianco Research LLC, wrote Wednesday in a Twitter post.
As
Bloomberg notes, Bianco cited a total-return ratio, including dividends,
between Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and the S&P 500 Index.
See Chart:
The ratio closed Tuesday at its
lowest level since November 2001 after dropping 23% from this year’s high, set
March 16, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The current reading was
first reached in 1995, as cited by Bianco, who wrote
that “Berkshire has turned into a
mediocracy” for the past 25 years.
….
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
What’s going on now is a mockery – or an intentional shift in programming.
Both SAFE and the PBOC report that foreign
assets have been stable; in terms of the monetary base of the latter, suspiciously stable...
PBOC was involved
because of its own balance sheet figures. Each month SAFE would first report
lower levels of foreign “reserves” which then got confirmed by the PBOC’s
balance sheet lines, a central bank system which begins
and often ends at the number for forex.
SEE CHART:
What’s going on now is a mockery – or an intentional shift in programming. Both SAFE and the PBOC
report that foreign assets have
been stable; in terms of the monetary base of the latter, suspiciously stable. I mean,
hardly any variation month to month, a trend that’s gone on so long now it’s
really year to year.
But what,
exactly, is going on isn’t showing up anywhere. Not even on the one or two lines where in the past
we could link them to hypothetical backdoor activities (the ubiquitous and
useful “other”).
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ABOOK-June-2020-PBOC-BS-Other-CNY.png?itok=ew7Ff2ZS
The
ticking clocks became too noticeable and obvious? I think so; as did the decline in visible “reserves”
which created the opposite effect of what was intended, amplifying negative
monetary pressures market-wide (the nightmare scenario). The PBOC, unlike Western Economists, may just have found out
that following the orthodox textbook where these things (the basics
like money and dollars) are concerned will get your economy killed.
Reserves aren’t insurance against a dollar shortage, they are
confirmation you’re the big target. Maybe better not to so blatantly advertise
your dollar struggle?
Purposefully or not,
a straight line isn’t expansion, either. And that still means the same thing in
China: very little room for monetary growth. In what to me looks like more Xi
vs. Li, currency growth has been bumped up for COVID-19 and the shutdown
depression; bank reserves have not.
Quality
growth in the real economy as opposed to quantity growth led by flooding banks.
See Chart:
Bank of
China Balance Sheet 1
Bank of
China Balance Sheet 2
Even the Chinese
yuan has become far more stable despite the rash of nasty economic indications
and even more uncertainty about what the PBOC might or might not do about it.
In other words, forget what is happening in China, the yuan is all about the
“dollar” in the purest financial sense.
Especially when there are, curiously, no more muddy footprints at all.
….
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
ALAI NET ORG:
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INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-Orlov: Pandemic, Economic Collapse, &
Military Conflict By G & Empire
-Pompeo's UN Move Against Iran Will Fail By Moon Of Alabama
-Stop treating Israel as a state above the law
and end annexation By Saeb Erekat
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CROSS
TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
As the cultural war rages unabated,
the billionaire class is only getting wealthier. Their wealth has skyrocketed
20 percent, or $584 billion, since the start of the pandemic/lockdown. How will
this fact shape the coming economic recovery? And, is a permanent underclass the
new normal? CrossTalking with
Richard Wolff & Todd Horwitz.
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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