JUN 1 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Nothing says buy
domestically-focused small cap US stocks like a nation under curfew due to
widespread looting, images of police precincts on fire on every media outlet,
many cities suffering "the worst social unrest since the 60s", and still facing pandemic-crisis economic lockdowns and fears
(oh, and PMI/ISM Manufacturing missing expectations and ongoing US-China trade
and politial tensions)...
See Chart:
Futures show the malarkey best
as Sunday's open was met with significant selling (riots) only to be magically bid back up and then
again on reports that China cut some US imports, only to magically bid once again. The
cash open saw weakness, but that was again magically bid higher...
See Chart:
‘Most
Shorted’ Stockss were squeezed once again...
See Chart:
FANG
Stocks rallied...
See Chart:
Bank
stocks surged out of the gate but faded late on...
See Chart:
But before you get too excited
about the rally today, Bloomberg's Cameron Crise notes that in every month
since last November the direction of the S&P 500’s return on the first trading day has been
reversed over the rest of the month. And in many cases, the reversal has been spectacular. So a 0.375% gain today bodes poorly for the month if history
repeats...
See Chart:
The B-dollar
Index fell for the fifth day in the last six, back at near 3-month lows...
See Chart:
Pushing
the B-dollar index back near 3-month lows...
See Chart:
Bonds
were sold today, especially the long-end, not helped by AMZN's huge offering...
See Chart:
Corporate
bonds were dumped at the open but HY rallied comfortably into the green (paging
The Fed?) as IG bond prices drifted lower...
See Chart:
Short-term
Fed Funds Futures shifted dovishly today, with Jan 2021 back close to implying
negative rates...
See Chart:
All
major commodities (even crude today) managed gains amid the weaker dollar...
See Chart:
Finally,
one wonders just how long this disconnect can last?
See Chart:
….
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"Business closures and social
distancing measures are expected to curtail consumer spending, while the recent
drop in energy prices is projected to severely reduce U.S. investment in the
energy sector."
In its first
official forecast incorporating the impact from the coronavirus
shutdowns, today the Congressional Budget Office said that over the 2020–2030
period, cumulative GDP will be
$15.7 trillion, or 5.3%, less in nominal dollars than what the agency projected
in January.
Putting that number in context,
the nominal GDP of the US today is $21.5 trillion, in other words over the next
decade, the Coronavirus will have wiped out almost one full year of output
potential from the US economy.
SEE CHART:
In real, or inflation-adjusted dollars, some $7.9 trillion in
economic activity over the next decade will be lost even with the trillion of
rescue funding being poured in to offset the pandemic’s impact.
Subsequently, the difference between
those projections of nominal GDP narrows from $533 billion (9.4% lower in the
latest projection) ) by the end of 2020 to $181 billion (2.2 percent lower) by
2030.
SEE CHART:
In real terms, the difference between those projections of
real GDP shrinks, to $422 billion in 2019 dollars (7.6% lower in the more
recent projection) by the end of 2020 and roughly disappears by 2030. In other words, it
will take a decade for the impact of the coronavirus to fully fade away and for
the economy to return to its pre-coronavirus normal.
The difference between the CBO's January baseline and the
nominal and real cumulative GDP projections is shown below. Curiously, while on a real basis the economy takes a decade
to revert to normal, in nominal dollars it appears the US can't ever recover
its previous trend line.
SEE CHART:
The permanent loss in output in the US economy was shown
by BofA two weeks ago when the bank laid out
the pre-covid trend growth and compared it to is base case recovery.
SEE CHART:
"Business closures and social distancing measures are
expected to curtail consumer spending, while the recent drop in energy prices
is projected to severely reduce U.S. investment in the energy sector,” said CBO
Director Phillip Swagel in a written response to an inquiry from Senator Chuck
Schumer. "Recent legislation will, in CBO’s
assessment, partially mitigate the deterioration in economic conditions."
In response, Schumer quickly pivoted the conversation to get even more government stimulus money out of the
current crisis, saying the CBO estimates emphasize the case for quick action on
another spending bill.
“In order to avoid the risk of
another Great Depression, the Senate must act with a fierce sense of urgency to
make sure that everyone in America has the income they need to feed their
families and put a roof over their heads,” Schumer said in a statement.
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/budget-office-finds-us-economy-wont-return-normal-until-2030
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I did
skip the interesting long introduction; you open the source below & read it
Here are the best and worst
performing assets in May in local currency and USD terms...
SEE CHARTS
... and here are the top and bottom
assets of 2020 to date:
SEE CHARTS:
….
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Short News on Economics
We’re now learning that the hastily
rushed through bill and the flood of people applying for benefits left the door
open for scammers and identity thieves to tap into the system and falsely claim
benefits to
the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars.
SEE CHART:
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/massive-unemployment-fraud-uncovered-washington-state-others
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And there is a good 120 ES point buffer before gamma turns
negative.
For those asking at what point does gamma turn negative,
there is a good 120 points to the downside before selling becomes
self-reinforcing, with Gamma flipping negative at a spot price of 2,938.
SEE CHARTS
….
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The risk is chasing a late-stage bear
rally & capitulating on the "this time is different narrative"
even if you don't believe. Solution is cheap asymmetry to hedge the bubble-risk
instead of submitting to it; best ideas for cheap optionality.
The risk to
the trade is a 1987-style vol crush, taking the VIX to 17 by July expiry. However,
Bowler remains skeptical that volatility in a severe fundamental shock like
today's can sustain the pace of decay seen in the highly technical 1987 crash.
SEE CHARTS:
A more
vanilla trade in the same spirit is to partially fund QQQ calls by selling TLT
puts, taking advantage of the recent drop in the QQQ/TLT vol ratio to its
2-year average (Chart 17).
SEE CHARTS:
Hedging Asian risks
The auto call market in Asia
has slowed down sharply amid the crisis. In April, only US$1.9 Bn notional of Korean autocalls were issued; down 71% from
pre-crisis (Chart 22). At the same time, index-linked Uridashi
issuance in Japan fell 81%. BofA highlights the following:
SEE CHARTS:
Continue reading at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pain-trade-clearly-how-one-bear-hedging-continued-market-meltup
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"There remains a high risk that any recovery will be
frustratingly slow..."
ISM Manufacturing showed
a similar picture - with a modest rebound but disappointingly missing expectations (up
from 41.5 to 43.1, but less than the 43.8 exp)
SEE Chart:
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-manufacturing-soft-survey-data-disappoints-modest-rebound
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
The remarks come hours after berating governors for taking a
“weak” approach to ending the violence and shortly after reports of
the possible
use of The Insurrection Act...
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“I hereby declare, officially, my support for
ANTIFA,”
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"You Have To Arrest People"
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Hundreds
of thousands declaring themselves
in allegiance with Anarcho-communists...
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THE
LOGIC OF THIS MOV: WHERE IT GOES?
Hugo
Adan
June 1, 2020
One more death and Trump is
politically out of ELECT-race.. REV will follow its course. Is my hypothesis derived from:
Get ready for some fireworks...
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….
REFERENDUMS demanding
resignation of Local-State authorities supporting Trump, is coming.
REFEREMDUMS demanding Trump
resignation will follow.
Even with Supreme Court complicity
.. his chances for Legitimate power are gone.. KILLING DISARMED PEOPLE WILL NOT BE ACCEPTED.. FASCISM has not space in the US.
Not more lies regarding the
brutal kill of George Floyd… he didn’t die from a simple asphyxia.. publish his
autopsy from independent doctors. Don’t
take the Nation for a fool, call a spade.. spade. Show respect to our nation.
Military ‘solution’ is not solution,
but the total re-organization of the policy will be welcome.. many of them are
involved in civilians death.
I saw a Video with the brother of
George shaking hands and hugs with a police.. that is very POSITIVE.. it means that blacks are in favor of PEACE but they want JUSTICE
FIRST.
Elections are coming and we don’t have a 3rd
option to go beyond the corrupted duopoly system… OUR NATION WON’T VOTE LESSER EVIL ANYMORE.. they
will prefer ABSTENTION.
IF the 2/3 of the
national electorate don’t come to vote, the
winner will not have legitimacy and not chances of governability with SOCIAL
PEACE.
Worse even if the winner don’t
get more than 50% of the total national electorate.
Easy way to solve the problem:
ALLOW A 3RD OPTION: THE
NATIONAL FRONT FOR SOCIALISM. This
will rid of too much abstention and will
create more chances for legitimacy and
governability with SOCIAL PEACE.
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... the
lockdowns are causing
“exponentially growing negative health consequences” for millions
of Americans...
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"I’m
not saying flu is like COVID-19, I’m just simply saying that the burden of death of flu is like
COVID. Especially when we correct for the fact that people who die from COVID-19 are older
on average than people who died from flu..."
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...this is
dry tinder which can burst into
flames at any moment... All it took was a spark... Who will benefit from this chaos?
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They are
now charged with causing damage by fire and explosives to a police vehicle. If
convicted, each of them faces up
to 20 years behind bars. There is amandatory minimum sentence of 5 years...
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI ORG:
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
Trump
invoca la Ley de Insurrección de 1807 para desplegar militares https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/355180-trump-invoca-ley-insurreccion-1807
La muerte
de George Floyd "fue un homicidio causado por asfixia https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/355150-autopsia-determinar-muerte-george-floyd-homicidio-asfixia-cuello
UNICEF
confirma 5 muertes a causa del nuevo brote de ébola en el Congo https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/355173-unicef-cinco-muertes-nuevo-brote-ebola-congo
RU: US
pierde el derecho a opinar sobre derechos humanos después del crimen racial https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/355124-eeuu-pierde-derecho-hacer-comentarios-cualquiera-derechos-humanos
El
movimiento ANTIFA está detrás de la
violencia en las protestas en el país https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/355141-departamento-justicia-eeuu-evidencia-antifa-violencia-protestas
Soros-Gates
acusan a China y la "amenaza" del comunismo para dominar el mundo: https://actualidad.rt.com/opinion/cecilia-gonzalez/355133-soros-china-amenaza-comunismo-derecha-relato-pandemia
Trump
ordenó iniciar el proceso para eliminar el trato especial a Hong Kong https://actualidad.rt.com/video/355050-trump-ordeno-proceso-eliminar-hongkong
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
- Real Looting Of
America CNN Won’t Show You By Chris
Hedges -J Dore
- Grim Future: Restored
Neoliberalism or Hybrid Neofascism? By Pepe Escobar
- Why does police
authority exist? By James Rothenberg
- USA plan: militarized
control of population By Manlio
Dinucci
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CROSS
TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
US officials are looking for someone
to blame for the violence. But the countries that routinely receive harsh
criticism from Washington for their handling of protests are pointing out the
hypocrisy. RT America’s Rachel Blevins discusses the details. RT America’s
Faran Fronczak gives us the latest outside of the White House. Reporter Ashlee
Banks joins In Question with live updates from Minneapolis.
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Is the United States hell-bent on
self-destruction? A pandemic, a dramatic economic downturn, and now massive
civil unrest all point to decline. Could this have been avoided? Also,
targeting Hong Kong – watching the neoliberal-forced-regime-change playbook in
real time.
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
- “America’s
Moment of Reckoning”: Cornel West Says Nationwide Uprising Is Sign of “Empire
Imploding”
- “America
Has Looted Black People. We Learned It from You” Says Women’s March Activist
Tamika Mallory
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