martes, 31 de marzo de 2020

Mar 31 ND SIT EC y POL



Mar 31  ND   SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


Sufri un sabotaje en el fechaje de mis envíos al Journal: alguien no quiere mis envíos
Los dos anteriores mensajes enviados pertenecen al dia 30 de Marzo
El Journal de hoy corresponde al dia 31. El anterior dice 31 pero es del dia 30.
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ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

It's Official...
Mad World Remix of Mobi VIDEO:

Here's a chart that no one suspected would happen (most of all not the media and the democrats)... as stocks crashed by record amounts in March, President Trump's approval rating has soared to the highest of his presidency...
See Chart:

So how bad was Q1?
Q1 was the world's biggest quarterly capitalization loss (in bonds and stocks) ever...
See Chart:
Quarterly Capitalization Change of Global Stocks & Bonds

With bonds adding a modest $1.1 trillion while stocks lost a record-smashing 19.6 trillion...
See Chart:

This was The Dow's worst Q1 ever...
See Chart:

...and worst overall quarter since Q4 1987...
See Chart:
Dow Quarterly Performance (%)

This was The S&P's worst Q1 since 1938 (and worst overall quarter since Q4 2008) and March was worst month for S&P since Oct 2008.
See Chart:

Additionally, stocks suffered the first back-to-back-to-back monthly losses since Oct 2016.
30Y Yields fell in all three months in Q1. This is the biggest Q1 crash in 30Y Yields since 1986 (and biggest quarterly decline in yields since Q3 2011). 2Y Yields plunged 136bps in Q1 (down 6 quarters in a row) - the biggest yield drop since Q1 2008.
See Chart:

This is the 6th straight quarter of gains for gold (and up 12 of the last 14 Q1s)
See Chart:
Gold Q1 Performance (%)

Oil prices plunged all three months in Q1. Q1's 66% crash in WTI is the worst quarter ever (worse than the 60% oil glut crash in Q1 1986).
See Chart:

But apart from that, Q1 was awesome!!
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The Russell 2000 is the biggest (major) index loser in Q1 (down around 31%) and the Nasdaq the relative winner...
See Chart:

So much for the month-/quarter-end rebalancing flows?
See Chart:
Nasdaq vs UST 10Y Yield

The Virus-Fear Trade - long food, short leisure - has started to deteriorate again this week suggesting all is not well...
See Chart:

Bank stocks suffered their second worst quarter ever, crashing 41% (Q1 2009 was -44%) with Citi and Wells Fargo worst...
See Chart:

VIX quarterly change. Q1 also saw the biggest quarterly spike in VIX ever...
See Chart:

And realized volatility in stocks has only been higher during the Black Mondays in 1987 and 1929...
See Chart:

Credit markets collapsed at a record pace in Q1 with IG taking the brunt (relatively speaking) until The Fed bailed them out...
See Chart:

High Yield was ugly though...
See Chart:

Bond yields collapsed in Q1 led by the short-end (2Y -135bps, 30Y -105bps)...
See Chart:

2Y Yields are once again back below The Fed Funds rate (even after the massive cuts this quarter)...  good graft
See Chart:

he Dollar surged in Q1 (its biggest quarter since Q4 2016)
While oil stole all the headlines in Q1 with its record-breaking crash, gold managed solid gains..
While some (heavier) crudes actually traded with negative prices in Q1 (Wyoming Asphalt Sour), WTI traded down to a $19 handle at its lows... for now...
See Chart:
WTE Crude

Finally, what happens next? Who knows? But Nomura's Charlie McElligott has run the historical seasonals and this is what the 'odds' say

Global index performance for the next 4 weeks, the outperformers are in Eurostoxx 
See Tables

However, the question is - do we replay 2008 after this bounce?
See Chart:

Remember, it's about the fun-durr-mentals again..  very bad
See  Chart:

And top-down macro is even worse...
See Chart:

As The Feds favorites (and only) tool seems to have stopped working...
See Chart:
Fed Balance Sheet  vs. S&P
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

The guidelines are going to call for people to shelter in place until the end of April...possibly even longer...
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We are not at war. Sailors do not need to die. If we do not act now, we are failing to properly take care of our most trusted asset — our Sailors.”
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Illinois pols have constantly over promised pension benefits, passed unbalanced budgets and hiked spending, all of which have left the state with a chronic bill backlog...
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Most Americans are blaming “hoarders”for the current mess, but it is actuallymuch more complicated than that...
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Subir los precios y bajar la demanda no es solución.. agravaría el problema
A variable import fee on United States imported oil or products with a floor price of $50.00 will set the U. S. price and hence the world price at $50.00. This would provide a stabilizing effect on the U. S. oil industry...
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Es la recesión, no el CV. Recess is natural in neolib Sys n is global because this Sys is G

“The whole world is turned upside down right now.”
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All booms come with their bust & if this affect key sector of the world Econ  like: A-wrong State investment (weapons & wars instead of health, salaries & jobs ). B- wrong sources of energy (still fosil  fuels) .. C-wrong uses of huge over accumulated Capital & D : evil-corrupt regimes in big countries. The rest you name it...all that affect the reproduction of neoliberal  system.. then we have a global recession like in 1929-36.. The current one could last more & be more devastated if we added WW3, that is in US-PENTA & NATO plans.. The 40,000 NATO troops to borders of RU-Chi  show this risk. Evil US generals want to use the stupid  arsenal we’ve accumulated in the destruction of RU-Chi will . They respond with similar ferocity to the heart of US and NATO power. Result: MAD. Effect: nuclear infestation at global level with new pandemias & huge ecological disaster due to global rotation-dislocation & new-worse climate changes. The nuclear WW3 could be the end of human history.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

NOTAS desde la cárcel: La discriminación del saber   C  León
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ALAI  ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

Avión militar ruso con ayuda médica contra el coronavirus parte hacia EE.UU.   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/348385-avion-militar-ruso-ayuda-medica-covid-eeuu
Slavoj Zizek: "El CV nos obliga a elegir entre el comunismo global o la ley de la jungla" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/348318-slavoj-zizek-coronavirus-comunismo-jungla
Trump: el US enfrentará "dos semanas muy, muy dolorosas" por el brote de  CV   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/348365-trump-eeuu-semanas-dolorosas-coronavirus
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

-Get Ready for World Money  By James Rickards
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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