martes, 10 de marzo de 2020

ND MAR 9 20 SIT EC y POL



ND  MAR 9  20  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

 ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

BLACK MONDAY... PART TWO  :  ABSOLUTE CARNAGE
At its lows today, this was the market's biggest down day since 1987 (by the close the biggest since Oct 2018)!
See Chart:
DOW daily % Change

In a reflection of the total loss of faith policymakers notes that:
This is the only day in the history of S&P 500 futures that they gapped down more than -5% and didn't close above the open.

Did the 11-year-long, almost unstoppable bull run that started on March 9, 2009, just end on March 9, 2020?
See Chart:
S&P 500

Here’s another stat for the record books. Total U.S. Trading volume, on a 10-day moving average basis, is now higher than during the meltdown in 2008. Volume is another whopper today, over 17 billion shares.
See Chart:
NYSE Volume

Thanks to the market perceiving President Trump's response as remaining one of "denial" of the scale of the problem, and concerns that any fiscal stimulus will be underwhelming, things were already anxious as markets opened Sunday night. But the situation was worsened considerably as both Russia and Saudi Arabia stood poised to flood the market with cheap crude (supply) in an all-out price war just as the coronavirus is spurring the first contraction in demand since 2009.
“The situation we are witnessing today seems to have no equal in oil market history,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
“A combination of a massive supply overhang and a significant demand shock at the same time.”

Oil futures fell by about one-third in New York and London on Monday, the biggest drop since the Gulf War in 1991, before pulling back to a 20% decline.
See Chart:
WTI Crude

Crashing below $30!
See Chart:

Crashing that affects US HY Energy sector of BOND PRICES...
See Chart:

US markets were a bloodbath from Sunday night future open (ETFs showed things were uglier than the 5% limit down in futs) and stocks were unable to show any real resilience...
See Chart:
Futues 5% limit down  vs  SPY: Cash 7% Circuit breaker

Early selling pressure today - judged by NYSE's advance-decline line - was at its strongest since the DotCom collapse... 
See Chart:

Extreme Fear has reached its extreme-east level...
See Chart:
Fear and Greed Index

The shrill cry from the asset-gatherers and commission-rakers - "TURN THE BUY-THE-DIP MACHINES BACK ON!!!!"
Chinese stocks - somewhat uncharacteristically - tumbled overnight... finally..
European stock markets just suffered their worst decline since Lehman... Oct 2008

Europe is now down over 22.5% - a bear market - from highs just 3 weeks ago...
See Chart:
Stocks Euro 600

The selling was absolutely across the board... Down
See Chart:

And US markets were an ever bigger bloodbath... The Dow dropped 2019 points!!! Worst day for stocks since Oct 2008
See Chart:

Russell 2000 entered a bear market today (down 23.5% from January highs), dropping most since Lehman
And DOW Transports have erased all of the post-Trump election gains...
See Chart:

US Banks were crushed today...
See Chart:
S&P  Bank Index  vs Trump’ chances of being re-elected
The big banks are down a stunning 30-40% in the last 3 weeks

The Energy sector suffered its biggest loss ever, crashing over 18% on the day...
See Chart:

And VIX's term structure is the most inverted since Lehman...
See Chart:
VIX Term Structure

Today's crash in Treasury yields was the biggest since Nov 2008
And it was   the biggest yield drop in history...
See Chart:
UST 30Y Yield

The entire Treasury curve is now below Fed Funds...
See Chart:
Que podría hacer Trump para evitar que este cadáver se pudra y estalle en REV? Nada. pero si ocurre 1 milagro temporal Trump nos corona con el hell WW3: q es peor q el CV No hay nada que puedan hacer contra la Recess los que la crearon y lucraron con ella.
...
Amid all this carnage, the dollar ended only modestly lower...
See Chart:
B- Dollar Index
Once again OIL'S DROP today coincided with DOLLAR WEAKNESS and in fact, as Bloomberg detailedthe relationship between oil and dollar has turned on its head: THE LOWER THE CRUDE PRICES ARE, THE WEAKER THE U.S. CURRENCY.
[Por esto propuse ayer regresar al USD con base en oro y confiscarlo de pillonarios que poseen dentro y fuera del Pais. Fue lo que hizo FDR, a lo que hay que sumar el Plan Soc]  
See Chart:
Correlation between Oil  and Dollar

Since the turn of the century, the two have typically had a negative correlation. A strong dollar has meant weak oil prices and vice versa, partly because oil is priced in dollars. Granted, the relationship hasn’t been stable in recent years, but a positive correlation has been rare.
There could be several explanations:
  • For one, lower oil prices add deflation pressure and lower the bar for the Fed to ease monetary policies.
  • Second, with the U.S. a net energy exporter now, weaker oil prices reduce investment in the shale industry.
  • Third, oil prices signal weak global demand, causing unwinding of carry-trade positions funded by the euro.

And finally, we wonder - HAS RAY DALIO LOST HIS TOUCH?  [ Of course NO ]
See Charts:
1: “If you holding cash you’re going to feel  pretty stupid”
2: “Cash is trush” [La soluc no es covertir el cash en gold.. es lo que quieren los Bill que todos se sumen a su festin para seguir siendo pillonarrios.Invertamos el cash en copos]

And don't forget it's also the anniversary of 1933's Banking Crisis Holiday
Read message below

And in case you're wondering. The 2K analog is holding very well... implying we should get a decent bounce here before the finally catastrophic collapse...
See Chart
Nasdaq now  vs. Nasdaq Y2K

The market is now demanding 3 rate-cuts at or before the next Fed meeting (on March 18th)...
See Chart:
Rate-changed Prices-In by Market for March 2020
….
En estos dos últimos Charts vimos posibles medidas que podría implementar Trump para salvar su régimen y su re-elección.  Es fácil empujar una carreta que ya no tiene ruedas porque vamos de bajada… y eso solo nos lleva al precipicio. Es lo que hacían nuestros antepasados: empujaban los mamuts hacia el precipicio y allí tenían comida para rato.  Pero esta es una medida solo temporal. Despues de Marzo Trump va tener que impulsar el WW3 contra RU y China y aliados. No tiene otra manera de sostener el USD en un mercado mundial que ya no controla el USA. Con el WW3 Trump  puede salvar la expansion del sistema neoliberal por algunos días y meses, pero no hay ni la mínima seguridad de victoria final. A menos que se quiera hacer una guerra mundial por etapas. Destruir Siria y entregar el control del oil a sus aliados seria la 1ra. Pero tampoco esto garantiza que se evite una reacción mundial contra las empresas y embajadas del US y sus aliados en el mundo entero. La guerra  inicial no habría terminado de consumarse en una región y otras nuevas guerras estarían ya en camino.
There is one more chart al final:  And US financial conditions are their tightest since 2009”. Es cierto, la economía USA está muy débil como para embarcarnos en una guerra mundial.. pero como hay otros Arts mejores art al respecto, lo obviamos.
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"Everything is on the table, we're willing to do more," and "We can meet at any time and move at any time in this situation"
See Chart:
Market is pricing in extremely low long-term rates

The logic is to clear the table of monetary policy so that the focus can shift to fiscal policy – which is likely to be more effective. Any fiscal measures are likely to involve some government spending in order to help steady employment. If this analysis is correct, measures will include a heavy dose of temporary tax reductions to improve cash flow and enable private-sector firms and households to stay current on debt servicing. Meanwhile, "the Fed’s contribution would be to enable the government to increase its debt burden on as favourable terms as possible."
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SHORT NEWS ON ECONOMICS:
It’s once sentiment is hit that attention quickly turns toward the pace of consumption – this will ultimately be the origin of any recession in the US.
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Dow -350 in early Asia trading, down 20.7% from highs...
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The collapse in bond yields, exacerbated by the crash in oil prices, marks an end to the era of trust in central banks...
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Interesting subtitles & charts like this: 1-Leverage (US Debt per share) vs. US Corp Credit risk (OAS). 2-WHAT NEXT? : High-Yield Bond Spreads Have a Long Way to Expand.3-Investment-Grade Bond Spreads Are Poised to Widen.
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"The worst-case scenario for the market is that dollar liquidity shortages start to emerge, putting leveraged borrowers in jeopardy." Subtitles: 1-sudden blow out in the notorious FRA/OIS spread. 2-  Market Liquidity And Short Interest Are At All Time Lows")....3-FRA/OIS: soared to its highest level since 2011.  4-record surge in volatility. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE Index
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WTF!
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In a world without the contrarian beacon that was Dennis Gartman, the head of the world's largest hedge fund has valiantly stepped in to take his place.
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We’re faced with the most critical time since the financial crisis.
This supposed to happen by tomorrow:  1: VIX hit 90 at the Lehman crisis peak...2-equity market uncertainty has caught up with global economic uncertainty. 3-What’s the $VIX really saying here?  4- The risk:  some funds are getting wiped out and over-leverage and unpreparedness and fear among retail investors will cause the calm passive investing trend to turn into ‘get me out at all cost’ panic selling
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This surge in selling pressure creates a “liquidity vacuum”...justa “sampling” of what will happen to the markets when the next bear market begins...
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The president also said he that he plans to announce “very dramatic” actions to support the economy at a press conference on Tuesday...
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

"We are temporarily banning advertisements and commerce listings that sell medical face masks..."
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It was initially a PENTA (2 scientist proved) , since it mutates become global virus

despite virtually every other virus being referred to by its geographical origin
….
Of course is racist  to call COVID 19 a “wuhan virus”: that is xenophic stupidity
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"Wikimedia has itself amassed a fortune of more than $160 million... donated in large part not by lazy students, but by major US corporations and influential foundations."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

-'Not Their Fault': Trump Announces Economic Stimulus to Mitigate Impact of Coronavirus  Trump announced new economic stimuli, including payroll tax cuts and loans to small businesses, amid the economic turmoil caused by the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

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ALA ORG
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

The One-Choice Election    By Chris Hedges
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

John Stauber   Coronavirus is Good for You
Peter Harrison  Industrialized Misery
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GLOBAL RESEARCH

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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