viernes, 13 de marzo de 2020

ND MAR 13 20 SIT EC y POL



ND MAR 13  20  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
 
ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Today saw the biggest spike in US equities since October 2008 after an avalanche of intervention in the last 24 hours across the world and extended by 1600 Dow points as Trump unveiled his stimulus/testing plan...
See Chart:

The last time the market rallied this much was 10/28/2008 - the day TARP was announced...
See Chart:

HOWEVER, THE S&P FELL 35% FURTHER AFTER THAT TARP BOUNCE...
See Chart:
S&P 500  Last day the Market rallied as much as today

But, overall, the market just suffered its fastest, most aggressive collapse into a bear market... ever...
See Chart:

But even more ominously, the broadest measure of the US equity market - The NYSE Composite Index - has collapsed below the 2007 highs (despite trillions in added liquidity)...
See Chart:

US equity markets ended the week on a stronger note, big gains overnight (limit up in futures), a plunge at the cash open, only to rebound when rumors hit that the President would declare a National Emergency (implicitly some fiscal largesse) and when he announced his plans, the market went vertical... this was the best day for stocks since 10/28/08...
See Chart:

This was the market's worst week since Oct 2008, but Small Caps' 20% crash this week is the worst since 1987 (Small Caps' 3-week plunge of 30% is the worst ever)
See Chart:

Banks were battered (but bounced today)...
See Chart:

VIX surged higher this week at an unprecedented pace, closing near record highs...
See Chart:

Investment Grade credit crashed this week - by our record this is the biggest weekly spread decompression in history...
See Chart:

As Risk-Parity Funds saw the biggest deleveraging losses in history...
See Chart:

Bonds suffered a total bloodbath this week - despite the collapse in stocks, with the end of day seeing a melt-up in rates...
30Y yields exploded higher this week after Sunday night's crash to record lows. Today saw 30Y spike to 1.79% intraday before tumbling back to 1.39% on the Fed's emergency QE today...

After collapsing to 69bps on Sunday night/Monday morning, this week's blowout on yields is the biggest ever...

But most worryingly, the Bond ETF world really started to break as massive, unprecedented discounts occurred in Treasury, Muni, and HY Credit ETFs exposing the illiquidity of the underlying assets...
See Chart:

Before we leave bond land, we note that CMBX crashed back towards its lows
See Chart:

And the market is now demanding practically 1 full percentage point cut in rates next week by The Fed...
See Chart:

The B-Dollar was massively bid this week as it appears key safe-haven flows - and liquidity demands - sparked a 'sell-everything-else' trade worldwide... (3 days this week were the biggest daily gains in the dollar since Nov 2016)
See Chart:

The surge in the dollar this week did not help but commodities were clubbed like baby seals as it seemed someone was mass liquidating everything in a scramble for cash...
See Chart:

This was WTI's worst week since Dec 2008 (and biggest 3-week drop ever)...
See Chart:

Finally, this was the worst weekly loss for a 'diversified' book of bonds and stocks since Lehman...
See Chart:

And, if you're wondering where this ends, it's simple - below 2,000 for the S&P 500... as the last five years of equity market gains have been total delusion...
See Chart:

And if you thought The Fed's Trillion-dollar-plus care-package helped... it didn't! FRA-OIS spreads continued to blow out, strongly suggesting massive dollar shortages and/or fear of systemic bank credit risks
See Chart:
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"I’ve never seen that before, the inability to trade a U.S. Treasury."
On the first day of this week, which would soon mutate into the worst week for capital markets since the 2008 financial crisis, we warned that markets are about to go full tilt for the simple reason that "there is no liquidity", something we first highlighted at the start of the month when we pointed out "Two More Problems For The Bulls: Market Liquidity And Short Interest Are At All Time Lows."
Why our constant focus on liquidity? Because as Goldman explained on Thursday, "liquidity and volatility are interconnected, creating a self-reinforcing loop, and as a result liquidity conditions have been an important contributor to the velocity of recent S&P 500 moves."  Typically the conventional metric of liquidity representing the dollar-amount of SPX E-mini futures available to trade electronically on the typically 25-cent wide market, has - as Goldman put it - "started to lose meaning as fewer and fewer market participants are quoting one-tick-wide markets for the futures at all."
See Chart:

As Goldman further explained, as volatility spiked, electronic futures liquidity has fallen to the point where there has been a median of just 10 contracts, representing $1.5mm notional, on the bid and ask of E-mini futures screens over the past week (compared with a median of 120 contracts, representing $18mm notional, in 2019)… The key takeaway of diminished liquidity, however measured, is that individual trades can move markets more than they otherwise would have, leading to higher volatility.
See Chart:
Frequency of SPX E-mini quotes being widen than 25cents I higher than in Dec2018

A key reason for the latest drop in liquidity has, curiously, been the concurrent drop in trading volumes: SPX future and option volumes were materially lower over the past week than they had been in the initial days of this market downturn (although they were still high relative to normal periods).
See Chart:
Despite having even higher volatility the last week has had lower index trading volume

Continue reading up to you get this conclusion:
Finally, adding insult to injury, volatility - both for stocks and bonds - continues to surge. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, which measures price swings in Treasuries, and the VIX both jumped to the highest levels since the financial crisis.
See Chart:
"We are at the stage where central banks need to provide exceptional liquidity into the market to make sure that basic markets can function."
“The Fed just cutting rates again at this stage is really not the right medicine,” Li said."'The Treasury market is broken -- with it being very illiquid. There’s very wide spreads between on- and off-the-run spreads," and other signs of dislocation.
Let's just hope Jerome Powell, who first diagnosed the real problem with the US capital markets back in 2012, knows how to fix them.
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"The plunge in US equities pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm.... we can say with confidence that we are witnessing a history-making market disaster in real-time."
See CHART:
DJIA WEEKLY RETURNS SINCE 1900 (Z SCORES)

Setting aside legitimate quibbles over the statistical significance of this, we can say with confidence that we are witnessing a history-making market disaster in real-time.

US stock market sentiment has also seen a jarringly swift collapse, as equity sentiment has now gone beyond the low point marked during the 2015 renminbi shock. In little more than the blink of an eye, the situation has come to look like the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis all over again.
See Chart: 
Nomura US Equitty sentiment index (since 2008)

Continue reading the best description of our Economic collapse before arriving to  this conclusion:
CTAs have turned short on DJIA futures. Because of the rapid pace of the Dow's drop, CTAs have been able to build sufficient short positions. As they had already preferred short positions with the DJIA below 28,000, CTAs look likely to build short positions rapidly at current share price levels.
 See Chart
CTAs have already tuned short on DJIA Futures
It may be, then, that the market has only just begun staring into the abyss.
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SHORT NEWS on ECONOMICS:
Never forget that there’s a fool on every corner and a sucker born every minute.Avoid being one of them when at all possible...
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Even as stocks surge, the interbank funding market is approaching a state of total paralysis. Unless this is fixed, and soon, total systemic collapse may follow.
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This week’s unprecedented moves are more about investors responding to the biggest VaR shock since the Lehman crisis.
See Chart:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

Legislation would allow carriers to arrive in US unimpeded...
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US-World ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

The COVID-19 crisis has struck the economic ‘machine’ in several placesat the same time...
See Chart:
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Siding with CCP propaganda?
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Iraqi officials outraged over Thursday airstrikes on Iran-backed militias, citingnational troops killed and wounded
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
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ALAI ORG
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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