domingo, 15 de marzo de 2020

ND MAR 15 20 SIT EC y POL



ND  MAR 15  20  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
 
ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

"While we are not assuming an Italy-style national shutdown in the US, the experience of countries like Italy, Spain and France offers some indications of the impact that extreme local-level quarantines could have."
The chief economist Jan Hatzius, at Goldman said that it expects US economic activity
"to contract sharply in the remainder of March and throughout April as virus fears lead consumers and businesses to continue to cut back on spending such as travel, entertainment, and restaurant meals. Emerging supply chain disruptions and the recent tightening in financial conditions will likely add to the growth hit."

As a result, the bank is now expecting Q2 GDP to crater -5%, down from its prior forecast of 0%, and the biggest quarterly GDP contraction since the peak of the financial crisis when GDP cratered by 8.4%.
See Chart:
US GDP:  Goldman Q2 GDP Forecast

Even with monetary and fiscal policy turning sharply further toward stimulus—we expect a 100bp rate cut on Wednesday and a fiscal impulse of 1-2% of GDP—these shutdowns and rising public anxiety about the virus are likely to
lead to a sharp deterioration in economic activity in the rest of March and throughout April.
Exhibit 1 provides illustrative estimates of how large the GDP impact of these consumption cutbacks could be at their peak in the worst-affected areas. The bottom of the exhibit shows our assumptions about the peak magnitude of cutbacks—for example, we assume an 80% decline in spending on sports and entertainment and a 50% decline in hotel and restaurant spending. We have scaled up some of our earlier estimates based on preliminary signals from US cutbacks to date and from the experiences of other economies that went through large outbreaks earlier this year. The bars in the exhibit multiply these assumed cutbacks by the GDP share of each category to estimate the impact on the level of GDP.
See Chart:

In short, while Goldman has no idea if and how the V-shaped recovery will take place, it is certain it will, and it now sees Q3 GDP surging +3%, up from +1%, and even higher, or +4% in Q4, from +2¼%, with further strong gains in early 2021.
See Chart:

One shudders to think what the real GDP will be at the end of the year, when Goldman's V-shaped recovery never materializes, and instead the far more probably L-shaped "recovery" emerges.
….
----
----


... where it goes from there is anyone's guess.

Friday's record 2000 Dow point surge will likely be cut in half if the spread bettors at IG  are correct in indicating that the Dow is set to open about 1,000 points lower.
See Chart at:

Two caveats: One This level is just indicative based on a handful of traders in a market vacuum, and ignores all the positional reflexivity and negative gamma that will emerge violently on the scene one futures do open for trading, where a crash as big as this will likely drag futures even lower... or not. The truth is nobody knows what happens next as the market has never before found itself in such a place.
Two: even if futs open about 4% lower, where they go from there will depend on the Fed. IF, as BofA expects, the Fed announced a Commercial Paper facility, watch out above, as futures soar limit up as the dollar funding crisis is set aside for the time being. On the other hand, IF the Fed does nothing and disappoints "whisper" expectations of a late Sunday intervention, then all bets are off.
The rest of this art is blocked at 7:46 pm
….
----
----

And there it is.
Jerome Powell did not disappoint and moments ago the Fed announced a barrage of emergency measures which included:
  • Welcome back ZIRP: Fed cuts rates by 100bps to 0-25bps from 1.00 -1.25bps. This is in addition to the 50bps rate cut on March 3, which means that in just under two weeks the Fed has cut rates by 150bps to zero.
  • Fed officially launches QE5 (no more "Non-QE" bullshit), consisting of "at least" $500BN in Treasury purchases and $200 billion in MBS.
  • Boosting intraday liquidity: The Fed announces Measures related to the discount window, intraday credit, bank capital and liquidity buffers, reserve requirements, and—in coordination with other central banks—the U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements
  • Reserve requirements cut to zero: The Fed cuts reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective on March 26.
  • Coordinated swap lines: The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank announced a coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements. The pricing on the dollar liquidity swap arrangements is cut by 25 basis points, so the new rate will be the US dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 25 basis points.
READ MORE at:
----
----
LOS BILLONARIOS PIDEN MAS

With the Fed firing its biggest bazooka ever, the market has to restore full normalcy for the Fed's action not to be in vain, and so far it has failed to do so.
See Chart:
That said, we will get a better sense of what traders are thinking when futures reopen in a few minutes, where anything less than a surge higher could be catastrophic for the Fed.
….
----
----
SHORT NEWS ON ECONOMICS:
Powell better explain why the market's reaction is wrong or else...
====
The party is over.
====
Last week the world got a dollar margin call, one which according to JPM is now $12 trillion, 60% of US GDP, and roughly double where it was during the financial crisis.
====
The current environment has some elements of both prior episodes raising the possibility that the decline in economic activity in upcoming quarters could rival the large declines that occurred in 1980 and 2008.
====

US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

The former Vice President will need to remain calm and focused after several recent gaffes...
 Biden’ telling a Detroit autoworker leader that he's "full of shit" for criticizing him over his plans for the Second Amendment, caused questions about  his mental fitness to be president.
Debate:  Watch live!:
….
----
----
"The billionaire class is 'up there' because they are standing on our backs pinning us down..."
             Income inequality is roaring...
See Chart:
Share of income captured by the top 1%

Wealth concentration is extreme to say the least...
See Chart:
Wealth share of the top 10% of individual at world level

 According to Pew Research's latest survey, when asked about the impact of billionaires on the country, nearly four-in-ten adults under age 30 (39%) say the fact that some have fortunes of a billion dollars or more is a bad thing...
See Chart:
Young adult liberal Dems are likely to say Billonaires’re ‘bad thing’ for the US

with 50% of young Democrats saying:
See Chart:
 Half of under -30 Dems saying billonaries are bad for the country

Finally, one quick question - where were all these under-30s when Bernie needed them the most in the Primaries?  
….
[ With counting of votes in new states + recounting votes in CA  we know that Sanders is leading the process although there was FRAUD AGAINST HIM.  In FACT: THE WHOLE PROCESS  was fraudulent since we allow billonares Corp & figures like Bloomberg to FINANCE parties & buy votes. Now Biden is in trouble because Sanders is gona run as independent candidate. Bye Bye duopoly-mafia system in American Elections ]
….
----
----
Is US a huge PRISON? Inside cities people can’t move b-cause virus in means of transpor
Will Trump & Pence announce INTER-STATE TRAVEL BAN?
====
Between Google & Trump many PEOPLE would TRUST GOOGLE.. NOT TRUMP
"Watch for their apology, it won’t happen."
….
Many people QT: when Trump is gona cut internet.. when happens WW3 is on
====
For the rich the CV is scam designed to cover U-NATO WW3 plan Agst RU. The rich don’t trust Trump, PENTA nor NATO. They mock on them & it stand to reason.
"It’s a terror of starving to death is what it looks like."
….
RELATED from yesterday report:
                Said the PENTA and NATO officials
“Defender Europe 2020” – 40,000 participants from 17 NATO countries (and Georgia).. [ they are ready to initiate WW3.. that is the true ]
….
SO, When Sanders start leading the counting of votes recently.. they come with the story-tell that we have to cancel elections because of Corona Virus. This pandemic is used to cover US-NATO attack on RU. Since Trump-Penta afraid of immediate RU retaliation they are canceling Sports, schools, etc. Read the article above COVIT-19 & NATO’ WW3 walk hand on hand. Or the original Doct 'DEFENDER EUROPE 2020' CANNOT BE CANCELLED DUE TO COVID-19
====
The Fed has a very big problem on its hands.
Something is very wrong by simply waiting an additional three days until the March 18 FOMC, but that it can do nothing more to fix the underlying problem...
See Chart:
Emini S&P Futures

In short, with the ES plunging limit down, this has been an absolutely catastrophic response to the Fed's bazooka; expect negative interest rates across the curve momentarily.
As FX strategist Viraj Patel puts it, "the Fed has thrown a kitchen sink of policy measures that should in theory weaken the US dollar. Problem is the global backdrop due to Covid-19 isn't conducive to putting money to work in other countries/FX. Fed making US risky assets relatively more attractive may support $USD"
See Charts: Twit
….
----
----
De Blasio also said the city now has 329 cases and 5 deaths from the virus, after reporting the city's first death yesterday...
====
Hypocrisy: Big Corp, billonaires & Banks buying election not only hit Sanders, Ilham too
"Payments to the firm in the 2019-2020 cycle for Omar’s reelection campaign comprised 40 percent of total campaign expenses..."
….
When Sanders start winning the vote counting .. they start cancelling election
====
Idiocies in time of crisis: Cuomo propose to infest US with Military to cope with C-virus
"We believe the use of active duty Army Corps personnel would not violate federal law because this is a national disaster. Doing so still won’t provide enough intensive care beds, but it is our best hope." [  Best hope or worse stupidity ]
====

US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

The decision to go-ahead with NATO’s biggest-ever war games in Europe at a time of heightened fears over the coronavirus sure raises questions about the military alliance’s stated purpose of maintaining security...
NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg has said the Defender-Europe 20 exercises will not be cancelled due to the flu-like disease which has now spread to every country in the European Union causing hundreds of deaths so far.
See Chart:
What is  “Defender Europe 20?”

In all, 37,000 troops are involved in the Defender-Europe 20 war games, the biggest contingency since the end of the Cold War nearly three decades ago. The U.S. is sending 20,000 personnel. Most of those troops will return to bases located in at least 20 American states. Thus, the risk factor of spreading the disease across Europe and the U.S. is significantly increased by the NATO events.
….
----
----
...the beginning of the real political balkanization that’s coming to the European Union over the next few years.
====

SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

----
----

NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

RT EN ESPAÑOL

Arg Presid cierra fronteras, y suspende eventos públicos y clases para frenar el  covid-19 https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/346217-argentina-anunciar-medidas-combatir-propagacion-covid-19
Maduro declara una cuarentena colectiva en siete estados de Ven  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/346223-maduro-declara-cuarentena-colectiva-siete-estados
Chile: Vizcarra declara estado de emergencia nacional y cierre de fronteras de Perú por el CV  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/346233-martin-vizcarra-declara-emergencia-nacional-peru
US:  Fed reduce tasas de interés a cero en respuesta a la pandemia de coronavirus   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/346221-fed-reducir-tasas-interes-cero-coronavirus
Crecen casos de tos y fiebre pero no es gripal: ¿se está pasando por alto el covid-19 en US?  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/346193-crecer-tos-fiebre-gripa-eeuu-coronavirus-pasar-desapercibido
El científico que el 2015 advirtió sobre el nuevo coronavirus busca cura y evalúa actual brote  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/346202-cientifico-coronavirus-buscar-cura-evaluar-brote
El UK aislará obligatoriamente a todos los mayores de 70 años un máximo de 4 meses https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/346171-reino-unido-aislar-obligatoriamente-mayores-70-anos
Candidato a la Presidencia de Bolivia por el MAS, Luis Arce, lidera en intención de voto  https://actualidad.rt.com/video/346235-luis-arce-lidera-intencion-voto-bolivia-encuesta
Joe Biden y Bernie Sanders debatirán sin espectadores en el US https://actualidad.rt.com/video/346204-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-debatir
----
----

GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

----
===

No hay comentarios:

Publicar un comentario