viernes, 6 de marzo de 2020

ND MAR 6 20 SIT EC y POL



ND  MAR 6  20  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

There will be blood!

The global equity market cap collapsed by a record $9tn - or two-thirds of China's GDP - in 9 days, while global; sovereign 10-year bond yields crashed below 1.00% for the first time ever...
See Chart:

Even the veteran-ist of veteran traders were shocked by this week's moves...
“Panic moved up a few notches from already extremely high levels,” said one trader today,
"I thought last Friday was the blow off top and then a few times this week before today but now its beyond belief,” he said, noting the rally in 30-yr to all- time lows.

The flip from Extreme-est Greed to Extreme-est Fear was unprecedented..
See Chart:
Fear & Greed Index

But the real shock was from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, who admitted central banks are losing their credibility rapidly: "Many central banks have consistently missed their stated inflation targets to the low side for many years... Critically, the central bank has to be able to actually deliver the required." Which means...
"Credibility of central banks, instead of improving over time based on the achievement of stated goals, seems to be eroding instead."

That's quite an admission but 100% correct and this week's carnage after an emergency 50bps rate-cut did nothing to calm fears is a perfect example...
See Chart:
FED Emergency 50bps Cut

And despite a huge resurgence in the Fed's balance sheet, stocks were not playing along at all...
See Chart:
FED Balance Sheet  with S&P down

Today was quite a day across every asset class. We gathered some of the most shocking market move headlines of the day for some perspective:

  • GLOBAL CONFIRMED CORONAVIRUS CASES SURPASS 100,000
  • EUROPE DEBT RISK GAUGE EXTENDS RISE TO HIGHEST SINCE JUNE 2016
  • GERMANY'S 10-YEAR BOND YIELD FALLS TO RECORD LOW
  • GERMANY'S 30-YEAR BOND YIELDS FALL TO ALL-TIME LOW
  • EUROPE SENIOR FINANCIAL DEBT-RISK JUMPS MOST SINCE 2018
  • JPMORGAN EMBIG DIVERSIFIED SOVEREIGN SPREAD RISES ABOVE 400 BPS
  • EMERGING-MARKET USD SOV.-BOND PREMIUM JUMPS MOST SINCE 2011
  • U.S. TREASURY 5-YEAR YIELD FALLS BELOW 0.50%
  • U.S. 30-YEAR YIELD FELL AS MUCH AS 30BP ON INTRADAY BASIS
  • U.S. 30-YEAR YIELD SET FOR BIGGEST ONE-DAY DROP SINCE 2009
  • U.S. CREDIT MARKET FEAR GAUGE SURGES MOST SINCE AT LEAST 2011
  • VIX'S 3-WEEK CHANGE IS BIGGEST EVER - BIGGER THAN LEHMAN
  • WTI CRUDE FUTURES DOWN 10.% - BIGGEST FALL SINCE 2014

FOR SOME CONTEXT the recent bond market collapse has never, ever happened before...

If you can tell from my tone, this troubles me, so I went back and looked into this, we have never had a 50% change in 10y yield levels in either direction over a 2-wk window. We have had larger rallies (yup in 4Q08) but nothing comes close to cutting rates in half this fast...
See Chart:

And as The Fed cut rates, the 30Y Yield chased it down, along with the rest of the curve...
See Chart:

As Nomura's Charlie McElligott details, panic moves in US Rates as Duration / Convexity goes “offer-less,” with 10Y yields hitting a fresh record low of 0.6932%, multiple “limit-UP” halts in UST Ultra bond futures and 30Y UST yields crashing down -22bps at the extremes (5s30s was flatter by -14bps at one point) in an investor climate that is fixated on “imminent global recession” via pandemic “lock-down”-NYT piece stating that over 2700 people have quarantined themselves in New York City, while new cases in S Korea frighteningly re-accelerate

This obviously has the look of a Rates “convexity-event” (forced hedging / buying at the highs from mortgage investors, insurance companies and those who are “short options”—i.e. all the Vol dealer desks selling low-strike receivers for the past few years, or the market makers short those 350k ED$ “Par Calls” for Jun expiry!)...

...but this is also a simple function of OIS markets now pricing-in a full ADDITIONAL 50bps rate cut on March 18th from the Fed already, as well as the obvious dynamic where “Rates are your everything hedge” from cross-asset investors (i.e. Equity L/S investors buying ED$ upside).
See Chart:
FED Rate-change Price-in for March.. 50bps Cut

Today was also the biggest single-day jump in the Ultra Bond Future ever...which prompted fears of a major macro fund blowing up.
See Chart:
Ultra Long Bond Future 1-day Change

China is still massively outperforming US and Europe since the start of the Covid-19 crisis...
See Chart:

Today's US equity market carnage sent all the majors into the red for the week, but the last 30 minutes saw the machines work ultra-hard to get the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq green...
See Chart:

Somebody do something!
See Chart:

So are we due for a bounce now?
See Chart:
Nasdaq Current  vs. Nasdaq Y2K

US Banks have now crashed over 27% from their early Jan highs...
See Chart:
S&P Banks Index  =  Trump elected down  [Cayo en su propia trampa?]

The biggest US banks have been bloodbath'd...
See Chart:

But, more worryingly, Global Systemically Important Banks stocks have crashed to their lowest since 2016...
See Chart:
Global Sistematically Important Banks downs = [Neoliber Econ arrived to its end]

While energy stocks were already getting clubbed like baby seals, the last two weeks have seen them collapse 22%.[ time to trash fosil-fuel energy  & move t electric cars ]
See Chart:
S&P Energy Sector [ down ]

VIX topped 54 intraday for the first time since 2009...[ but this one will kill a system]
See Chart:

Tree weeks absolute change in VIX  [ and the worse is coming soon ]
See Chart:

The VIX term structure is in massive backwardation...
See Chart:

The VIX Term structure hasn't been this inverted since Lehman...
See Chart:

Credit markets were a bloodbath this week, with both HY and IG blowing out in US and EU...
See Chart: 

US Treasury yields collapse this week was nothing short of stunning with the entire curve down 40-50bps!!
See Chart:

UST 10Y Yields crashed to a stunning 65bps overnight...
See Chart:

The yield curve flattened drastically,,,
See Chart:

The Dollar Index fell for the 2nd straight week (down 6 of the last 7 weeks)...
See Chart:

The dollar has been gaining against the rest of its fiat peers, but crashing relative to hard money...
See Chart:

Finally, there's this... 
STORES ARE OUT OF STOCK
HOW TO SOLVE THIS RECESSION?

Hugo Adan  Friday March 6, 2020 

Based on: 

The SOLUTION:  CONFISCATION of GOLD
Franklin Delano Roosevelt : FDR did’ it:
HE CONFISCATE all GOLD from BILLONAIRES on April 5-33

READ THIS DECREE:

The Democrat FDR got a strong base for USD by confiscating billonaires

Can we do it again? 
OF COURSE WE CAN
ALL THAT NEED IS a SOCIALIST REGIME

THAT IS WHY WE NEED TO SUPPORT
BERNIE SANDERS for PRESIDENT
AND ELIZABETH WARREN as VP

VENCEREMOS!!
WE WILL WIN!!
Sing it strong in Streets
….
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BRIEF NEWS ON ECONOMICS:

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"...mortgage rates are lower than I thought we'd ever see..."
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There are many different ways that COVID-19 is going to affect the world. To quote the CDC “The disruption of daily life might be severe.”
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"wanna say they were the 4th largest market maker in chicago"
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"precautionary measure"  to limit the transmission of the virus in the US.
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POMPEO BLAMES CHINA FOR US OUTBREAK  PENTA LABS in China? +pillos que pompe
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


"Two accused sexual predators should not be deciding whether or not women have access to healthcare in this country."
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"Theft of government property, wire fraud, aggravated identity theft, and conspiracy to defraud the United States."
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El virus que nacio en labs del PENTA muta contra ellos. Ni los virus los aman
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                El hijastro de Bloomberd esta enfermito..su dinero no sirvió para nada
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CV used as war-weapon against IRAN .. even d title of Art below express such mood
Right title should be:

Influential pressure group tied to Saudis, John Bolton & the Israeli lobby trying to ensure no medical aid gets in as Covid-19 death toll mounts...
....
This level of inhumanity  will of course be rejected by international community & rational-honest Americans. We are not a Nation of monstrous;  billionaires  and rulers are.. That is why we gona take them out of power either peacefully or via Revolution. There will be blood if they insist in fraud to  block socialists.
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When the economy contracts, or deflation looms, I wouldn’t be surprised if central banks either hand out cash financed by new money creation (helicopter money) or directly devalue their currencies against gold as they did in the 1930s.
….
“To Boost” means ‘intentionally’ or ‘directly devaluating ‘ our currency against gold. That is not real assumption .. Why?.. 1st because our currency is not base  on gold since 1971. 2nd Because the price of gold follows the market law of “offert” vs “demand.  If the demand goes up, the owners of gold rise the price up.. and the ones who benefit from this trade are the sellers of gold.  RU now is selling gold as never before. 3rd. In 1930’ recession there was not such devaluation of USD against gold. FDR (the best Presid  of US) didn’t do so  and he ruled the worse time of depression: 1933 to 1945. At that time there was a high demand for gold, the price of gold was up & our USD became strong (US  financed  the reconstruction of the world after WW3). Since we have gold now, the best we can do is restore the gold-base for our USD.  
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


"This migratory pressure is organized," French FM Le Drian said, "It is organized by President Erdogan's regime as a form of blackmail against the European Union."
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Erdogan is also about to discover that there has been a hardening of attitudes among European leadersabout dealing with unwanted migrantssince the Turkish leader last used his blackmail tactics five years ago...
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"The global scale and speed of the current educational disruption is unparalleled and, if prolonged, could threaten the right to education."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

Libres L: Exploraciones anticapitalistas Descargar
                : Redes para la comprensión de la política  Descargar
                : Existir en la No-Existencia. Sujetos femeninos  Descargar
                : Semiótica y discursos de la descolonización   Descargar
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ALAI ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

CV impacto en la economía global? Tres economistas explican POSIBLES escenarios https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/345171-impactar-coronavirus-economia-escenarios

HAY 1 AVISO VERDE QUE NO DEJA TRABAJAR SI SIGUE CANCELARE ESTA FUENTE
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

Kathleen Wallace  Super Tuesday? 
Bruce Hartford  CRISES 4
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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