jueves, 2 de abril de 2020

APR 1 ND SIT EC y POL



APR 1  ND   SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

TODAY’S REFINANCE RATE: 2.66 APR
 Calculate Payment:
15 Year fixed                     2.38%                    2.66% April         >
30 Year Fixed                     2.75%                    2.96% April         >
5/1 ARM                              3.00%                    3.23%  April        >
$225,000 (5/1 Arm)          $949/Mon           323% April          >
$350,000 (5/1 Arm)          $1,476/Mon      318% April          >
SOURCE:  Lending Tree..  https://www.zerohedge.com/
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ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
FOOLED!
Virus-fear is back...
See Chart:
Virus fear trade

But the day started off ugly with a huge sell program:  the NYSE TICK
...the biggest negative TICK since Aug 13th 2018...
See Chart:
NYSE TICK index (Up tick less Down tick)

Small Caps led the blood bathery with a near 7% collapse today (limit-down) but all the major US indices were ugly (note the weak open, bounce into EU close, then selling fir the rest of the day...
See Chart:

Today was the worst start to a quarter since 1932... as The Great Depression was hotting up...
See Table:

The Dow lost 21k; S&P dropped below 2,500; and Russell 2000 broke back below 1,100... erasing over 50% of the dead-cat-bounce from last week...
See Chart:

It appears the short-squeeze ammo has run out again...
See Chart:
“Most Shorted”  Stocks

FANG stocks were slammed, as the opening and closing bid ramps from last week have disappeared...
See Chart:

Bank stocks continued yesterday's losses...
See Chart:

Most worrisome today was the crash in Mortgage REITs - despite weak markets and tumbling yields... systemic issues?
See Chart:

Will stocks catch-down to bond yields now that the rebalance flows are done?
See Chart:
Nasdaq  vs 10Y Yield

Treasury yields were all lower today as the rate-locks from record issuance lift (led by the long-end: 30Y -6bps, 2Y -1.5bps)...
See Chart:

The B-Dollar Index rebounded from yesterday's weakness...
See Chart:

Oil prices turmoiled around today but ended higher after plunging back below $20 again
See Chart:

Finally, we note that Republicans have retaken the lead (albeit very marginally) in the prediction markets for the November election... Reps 51%  , Dems 50%
See Chart:

And amid all the ongoing calls for more and more rounds of fiscal stimulus and helicopter money, USA sovereign/deval risk is starting to rise rapidly...
See Chart:
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“This is the kind of program that
 in ordinary times would take a year to get started.
Regarding State help to face CV.. the effects of the $2 trillion stimulus package? After all it could take weeks to process checks and get loans out, and yet April remains essentially "cancelled".
“Without something we wouldn’t be able to keep our employees,” another business owner with just five employees said“My biggest goal is to keep them and of course make sure there’s a business for them to come back and work for.”
Congress' $2 trillion includes $349 billion  to rescue small firms through the Payroll Protection Program.. When they will get? Ask one journalist. 
“Speed is the operative word”. .. to Small business  “This is the kind of program that in ordinary times would take a year to get started.”
Small businesses were responsible for more than 90% of the net job loss:
See MAP:
Net job loss attributed to small business

The owner of small business told Bloomberg:
“I’m not a big government-subsidy guy by nature, but right now, that’s our lifeline.”
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SOURCE:
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SHORT NEWS ON ECONOMICS
Bottom-line, U.S. shale appears to be on an unavoidable rapid decline
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"Liquidity conditions in Treasury markets have deteriorated rapidly, and financial institutions are receiving significant inflows of customer deposits along with increased reserve levels."  See Chart:
Dealers would be forced to pledge more Treasurys to the Fed in exchange for reserves. Instead... crickets: not only have Dealers virtually stopped parking Treasuries at either the overnight or term repo facility... See Chart:
.. but today saw the second "no bid" repo operation everas not a single Treasury or MBS was pledged to the Fed in return for cash.  See Graph
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Treasurys held in custody at the Fed on behalf of foreign central banks, sovereigns and reserve managers dropped by a record $109 billion - the biggest monthly drop in history - and the Fed panicked...  See Chart
Treasurys held in custody at the Fed on behalf of foreign central banks, sovereigns and reserve managers dropped by a record $109 billion - the biggest monthly drop in history.
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What the world is now encountering is the perfect storm...
LOCKDOWN WILL BE DEVASTATING
and devastating collapse which will lead to a decline in real terms of most assets like stocks, property and debt by more than 90%.
The Dow is an example:  See Chart
UNLIMITED MONEY PRINTING HAS STARTED
Fed has cut rates to zero and already expanded its balance sheet by $700 billion to $5.5 trillion since September 2019. Another $2 trillion have been committed but that is just the start. Just to remind ourselves, during the 2006-9 crisis the Fed’s balance sheet only grew by $1.2 trillion to $2 trillion in 2009. We will most likely see the balance sheet grow by $ trillions in the next few weeks.  See Chart:
In 1757 France lost a war against Prussia. The French king Louis XV had a mistress called Mme de Pompadour. When France lost the war she said to the king: “Après nous le déluge” – After us d deluge, meaning that the loss of the war would mean chaos and destruction for France. And it did of course as 30 years later the French REV took place.
[  It will happen to US if we declare  WW3 ]  Continue reading: SOURCE:
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"...nobody actually knows how bad it’s going to get..."
Scott Rechler, chief executive officer at RXR Realty said: 
“If tenants stop paying rent, then at some point landlords can’t pay utilities. The municipalities don’t get their property taxes or mortgages aren’t paid and the banks get a spike in defaulting loans.” 
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Asking for the world’s depositors:  What happens if there is a global pandemic that results not in a severe global recession, but an outright depression. Which, as a reminder, is what Goldman's latest forecast for at least Q2 is, when the bank expects GDP will plunge to -34%...
And even deeper through ….  See Chart:
... And what if the unemployment rate soars to 15%.
See Chart:
Our bottom-up estimate: near 12pp increase in Unemployment Rate
Not only is the stock index of GSIBs, or global systematically-IMPORTANT BANKS TUMBLING...  See Chart:
Global important Banks Stock Index
... as global broker counterparty risk soars... See Chart
But most ominously, 1 Year CDS on the US have been on a tear lately, suggesting US default odds - it appears the CDS market is not a fan of that MMT idiocy that a currency issuer can't default - are surging  See Chart
And while we are confident that others will soon start asking questions about whether this is also a financial crisis in addition to an profit and economic one, one thing we don't know is whether US CDS are surging because of that... or because of the US response to the crisis which will see US debt exploding by $2-3 trillion this year alone with the Fed's balance sheet doubling to $9 trillion and over.
In other words, is the CDS market starting to sniff out the beginning of the end - the moment when the US dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency?
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Given we don’t have data for the whole month and that the lockdown measures were after the survey, it is likely that job cuts surpassed the previous record of February 2009, at minus 174,000.
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"We're going to have the worst bear market in my lifetime,"
 in the next year or two...
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To quantify the impact of CV on local businesses across the U.S., the data science team at Womply is conducting ongoing, daily data analysis of transaction trends year-over-year at 400,000 local businesses across the country, including 48,000 restaurants, 10,000 grocery stores, 4,600 bars, 64,000 retail shops, and 6,400 lodging businesses. You can view that ongoing analysis HERE.
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A shadow-shadow panic might be other type of player beyond the visible depositories is hit hardest by liquidity problems. It’ll still be another big funding squeeze... maybe whole countries at the brink.
Hey NYSE, real GLOBAL DOLLAR SHORTAGE isn't even here yet.https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/03/30/no-dollars-and-no-sense-eighty-argentinas/ …  See more Charts:
Otavio (Tavi) Costa 
Stocks never bottomed near peak consumer confidence.   See Chart
Peter Schiff
Claims he has $6 trillion to put into the economy, and that it will do a lot of good. If governments can create wealth and prosperity by simply printing money and spending it, why have so many governments destroyed their economies doing just that?
Oscar Quintero:
This will be the end of the USD currency unfortunately. Our country (Venezuela) just did that, see how it went. Our "safe" asset is USD, so it'll end up harming a bunch of people. Gold and $BTC is the way to go ..
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

The whole reason the world is the way it is right now is because people have been manipulated by the media-controlling class into accepting an absolutely insane status quo as normal...
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The technical term is "Human Remains Pouches"...
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"The agency is working with manufacturers to assess their supplies..."
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RELATED:
The New York Times and Washington Post
aren't going to enjoy reporting this
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Let’s see if miraculous Trump is right. I hope such drug is not marihuana..
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A lot has changed in Americans' expectations for - and experience of - the crisis in a very short period of time...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

FALSE FLAG?  It smell xenophobia  Rememb: nothing in official press should be trust
What took you guys so long?
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This Qt stand to reason: most big news –includg lies- comes from the Presid  & via twits.. Why  this take too long? Maybe because is a PENTA false-flag : the assumed inventor of CV & other bio-chem weapons in their labs since WW1. Check WORLD NEWS channels . (Channel 13.3 and  Channel # 3 in world News)
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WW3  could start in the war with IRAN & will affect the oil business worldwide. RU in
Commander-in-Chief says US troops in Iraq
 under threat of imminent attack...
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SO, the pretext for ww3 could be the killing of US troops in Iraq (CV infested ?) 
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
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ALAI ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

"Aceptémoslo, el estilo de vida que conocíamos nunca volverá"  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/348307-mundo-despues-coronavirus-estilo-vida-nunca
China encuentra anticuerpos "eficaces" contra el nuevo coronavirus   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/348430-china-anticuerpos-eficaces-coronavirus
La inteligencia artificial predicen el agravamiento en los pacientes con covid-19 https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/348478-inteligencia-artificial-dar-signos-agravacion-covid
Armada del US evacúa a 1.000 militares del portavion nuclear con casos de CV a bordo https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/348517-armada-eeuu-evacua-militares-portaviones-coronavirus
Piñera anuncia 'flexibilizarel seguro de desempleo por la pand CV: ¿en qué consiste? https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/348458-pinera-flexibilizacion-seguro-desempleo-coronavirus 
La crisis del coronavirus podría llevarnos a un nuevo orden mundial   https://actualidad.rt.com/video/348471-experto-crisis-coronavirus-nuevo-orden-mundial
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

- Virginia Goes Zionist  By Philip Giraldi
- A light in the Darkness  By Paul Craig Roberts  Democracy  is dead
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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