ND MAR
26 20
SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
"You
have enormous buyers of debt meeting massive coordinated fiscal stimulus by
governments across the globe. For bond investors, you’re caught between a rock
and a hard place."
With the Fed buying $622 billion in Treasury and MBS, a staggering 2.9% of US GDP, in just the past five days...
See Chart:
Fed Treasury/ MBS Purchases since
restart of QE
... any debate what to call the
current phase of the Fed's asset monetization - "NOT NOT-QE", QE4, QE5,
or just QEternity - can be laid to rest: because
what the Fed is doing is simply Helicopter money, as it unleashes
an unprecedented debt - and deficit -
monetization program, one which is there to
ensure that the trillions in new debt the US Treasury has to issue in the
coming year to pay for the $2 (or is that $6) trillion stimulus package find a
buyer, which with foreign central banks suddenly
dumping US Treasuries...
See Chart:
Foreign Central Bank TSY sales
2-weeks cumulative % change
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/foreign%20cb%20sales%202%20week_0.jpg?itok=xTa0oO_Q
... would otherwise be quite problematic, even if it means the Fed's balance sheet is going to hit $6 trillion
in a few days.
The problem, at least for traders, is that this new regime
is something they have never encountered before, because during prior instances
of QE, Treasuries were a safe asset. Now, however, with fears that helicopter
money will unleash a tsunami of so much debt not even the Fed will be able to
contain it resulting in hyperinflation, everything is in flux, especially when
it comes to triangulating pricing on the all important 10Y and 30Y Treasury.
And as the now infamous "Money Printer go Brrr"
meme captures so well, underlying the uncertainty is the risk that trillions
of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus, and even more trillions in debt,
"could create an eventual inflation shock that
will trigger losses for bondholders."
See Chart:
FED Debt Held by the Public
Needless to say, traders are shocked as for the first time
in over a decade, they actually have to think:
"I’ve never, ever, ever seen anything like this before," Nader
Naeimi, head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital Investors, told Bloomberg.
"You have enormous buyers of debt
meeting massive coordinated fiscal stimulus by governments across the globe. For bond investors, you’re caught between a rock and a hard place."
And while equity investors may be confident that in the long run, hyperinflation results in positive real returns
if one sticks with stocks, the Weimar case showed that that is not the
case. But that is a topic for another day. For now we
will focus on bond traders, who are finding the current money tsunami
unlike anything they have seen before.
Indeed, while past quantitative easing programs have led to
similar concerns, this
emergency response is different because it’s playing out in weeks rather
than months and limits on QE bond purchases have quickly been scrapped.
Any hope that the Fed will ease back on the Brrring printer was dashed when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday the
central bank will maintain its efforts "aggressively and
forthrightly" saying in an interview on NBC’s “Today” show that the Fed will not "run out of
ammunition" after promising unlimited bond purchases.
The irony: the more securities the
Fed soaks up, be they Treasuries, MBS, Corporate bonds, ETFs or stocks, the worse the liquidity will get, as the BOJ
is finding out the hard way, as virtually nobody wants to sell their
bonds to the central bank.
Another irony: normally the prospect
of a multi-trillion-dollar government spending surge globally ought to
send borrowing costs soaring. But central bank purchases are now reshaping
rates markets - emulating the Bank of Japan’s yield-curve control policy
starting in 2016 - and quashing these latest volatility spikes.
In effect, the Fed's takeover of
bond markets (and soon all capital markets), means that any signaling function
fixed income securities have historically conveyed, is now gone, probably for
ever.
Additionally, when looking
further out, Bloomberg notes that money managers need to reassess another
assumption that’s become widely held in recent years:
that inflation is dead. Van Steenweghen says he’s interested in inflation-linked bonds, though timing a foray into
that market is “tricky.”
Naeimi also said he
expects that the coordination by central banks and governments will spike inflation at some stage. “It all adds to the
volatility of holding bonds,” he said. But for the time being, he’s
range-trading Australian bonds -- buying when 10-year
yields hit 1.5%, and selling at 0.6%.
That's right: government bonds have become a daytrader's
darling. Whatever can possibly go wrong.
But the biggest fear - one we
have warned about since 2009 - is that helicopter
money, which was always the inevitable outcome of QE, will lead to
hyperinflation, and the collapse of both the US Dollar, and the fiat system, of
which it is the reserve currency. Bloomberg agrees:
Many market veterans agree that faster
inflation may return in a recovery awash with stimulus that central banks and
governments may find tough to withdraw. A reassessment of consumer-price
expectations would be a major setback for expensive
risk-free bonds, especially those with the longest maturities, which
are most vulnerable to inflation eroding their value over time.
Of course, at the moment that’s hard to envisage, with
market-implied inflation barely at 1% over the next decade, but as noted
above, at a certain point the bond market no longer produces any signal, just
central bank noise, especially when, as Bloomberg puts
it, "central bank balance sheets are set to explode further into unchartered territory."
Quick note to the Bloomberg editors: it is
"uncharted", although you will have plenty of opportunity to
learn this in the coming months.
Mark Holman: “Will government bonds play the
same role in your portfolio going forward as they have in the past?” he said. “To me the answer is no they don’t -- I’d rather own cash.”
Other investors agree that cash is
the only solution, which is why T-Bills - widely seen as cash equivalents - are now trading with negative yields for 3 months and over.
See Chart:
US Treasury Bill-Yield s
Yet others rush into the safety of gold... if they can find it. At least check, physical gold was
trading with a 10% premium to paper gold and rising fast.
Ultimately, as Bloomberg
concludes, investors will have to find their bearings "in a crisis without recent historical parallel."
.. [ The PEOPLE’ SOCIALIST FRONT TOO ]
….
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LOS EFECTOS
DE LA INYECCION NO DIERON LOS RESULTADOS ESPERADOS
One would think that on the day the US reported 3.3 million (!) initial jobless
claims, more than 5 times the weekly peak hit during the financial crisis, AND
A 30-SIGMA
EVENT... The Weekly jobless claims by Len
Kiefer:
See Chart:
Initial Jobless Claims: Thousands seasonally adjusted It is Mobil-Twit so open:
... one which presages not a recession but an economic
depression, stocks would be lower.
One would be wrong, because as Virus
Fears abate...
See Chart:
‘Virus Fear’ Trade (Long food-Short Leisure)
Meanwhile, the Fed's wanton
monetization of debt, aka 'helicopter money'...
See Chart:
FED Treasury MBS Purchases since
restart of QE
... has triggered growing concerns
about USA's sovereign status, with the US default probability suddenly a hot
topic again.
See Chart:
USA 5 Y Sovereign CDS
But for the 3rd day in a row, the cash market open in the US
sparked another buying-panic (as
it seems the "$850 billion buyer" in month-end rebalancing is in the
market)
... while the month-end pension
rebalance suddenly appeared in the last 10 minutes of trading, sending
the ES up by 40 points in literally one trade after it emerged that the Market on Close
imbalance was $7 billion!
See Chart:
7 BN Market on Clos Imbalnace
And so, after the furious rally of
the past three days, and coupled with the last 10 minute Market On Close surge,
the S&P is now back in a bull market, surging just over 20% from its Friday
lows!
See Chart:
Bull Market!
Yet as Morgan
Stanley warned, despite the majestic gains in
stocks, breadth remains disappointing......
See Chart:
S&P 500 vs
‘Breadth -% of Components >50 DMA
.. and the rally has seen virtually
no confirmation as INTRADAY HIGHS FAIL TO HOLD.
See Chart:
Both IG and HY credit was bid again
today...
See Chart:
More concerning is that Treasury
yields, once again, refused to play along with stocks' exuberance...
See Chart:
Nasdaq vs 10Y Yield
The easing in Treasury conditions
has helped send the Treasury VIX tumbling even as equity VIX remains elevated.
See Chart:
VIX
vs Treasury VIX
The B-dollar index plunged today
(the 3rd day in a row lower after 10 days straight up)...
See Chart:
This is the biggest 3-day drop since
March 2009...
See Chart:
WTI tumbled back to a $22 handle as
EIA forecast an even bigger than expected tumble in global demand...
See Chart:
FINALLY, what will
the next bubble The Fed will inflate to rescue the world be?
See Chart:
Because the "everything
bubble" is done...
See Chart:
….
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BRIEF NEWS ON US ECONOMICS
This is an
increase of $1.3 trillion in two weeks (6% of GDP), which was the amount the
Fed monetized during all of
QE1 in response to the financial crisis
====
Last night, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed a $2 trillion “Phase III”
emergency aid package to help America
recover from the coronavirus lockdown. Previous phases provided funds for
testing and paid family leave.
====
“...the replacement of the dollar could happen almost overnight.”
====
"The sudden impact of this emergency is requiring us to take many severe and regrettable actions..."
====
“The dollar’s surge will renew calls for a shift from a dollar-centric global financial system...”
====
For all those who had been foolishly
chasing this late cycle melt-up and thought money printing and
stock prices were positively correlated to infinity,welcome to the real world...
S&P 500 vs. FED Balance Sheet:
US Corporate debt ETF Flows :
US Total MARKET CAP vs GDP:
====
what we are now witnessing is completely
unprecedented.
History of US Unemployment (%)
====
….
US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
This is a blatant case of corporate socialism . The asymmetry (moral hazard) can be expressed as
follows: heads
for the bankers, tails and taxpay losesfor the labor. Furthermore, this
does not count the policy of quantitative easing that went to inflate asset values
and increased inequality by benefiting the super rich. Remember that bailouts
come with printed money, which effectively deflate the wages of the middle
class in relation to asset values such as ultra-luxury apartments in New York
City.
====
...some parts of the country
may be able to back off the social distancing guidelines that are
being stressed heavily in places like NY City. See MAP:
Confirmed CV cases in The US
====
Two futures lie before us...
Most vitally, the activist (and to some degree policymaker) appetite for a complete
moratorium on worldwide US sanctions (which, until now, have rarely raised any
meaningful public ire) is particularly encouraging.
In the midst of the current pandemic, twin-track
arguments for relief range (quite effectively) from
ethical clamors for mercy – consider it a form of Love in the Time of Cholera Corona – to
‘tactical self- interest’ [ of Big Corp profiting from wars abroad ]
====
“Solo el
WW3 nos salvara” dice el PENTA y otros amantes y ‘profiteers’ del WW3
"If
this nears a large disaster like Hurricane Katrina, there is a flood coming."
…
In less than a month the tsunami of
vaccine Agst CV will inundate the US market. We hope the “price competition”
will be free & help for the poor
will be available. Then we will have the end of profiteers of Corona
Virus. BUT we
will have to avoid the other pandemic: WW3 that
will be much worse than CV.
====
Millions
for the poor? Preferible creer en los
cantos de sirena que enfrento Odiseo
...and Republicans added $50 million to the
total.
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Guarda energia para el reclamo nacional contra el Gob que robara este dinero
====
El aire
libre y la limpieza personal es lo que mejor previene el CV, dice NY.
In the
belly of America's deadly outbreak epicenter, still plenty of deniers & defiers but also those simply
forced to make it into work...
….
NY people
stand to reason: if they don’t have money to buy ventilators or pay
workers for total clean of the house/Apart.. then the park free-air is the
solut. The Gov want people to be
isolated & in total fear of CV so they can be easily manipulated into “the
sacrifice with honor for WW3” . This forced suicide of people in WW3 is a plan
already in process. Penta-NATO have 50
Th soldiers in the borders of RU-China.. they want to take control of oil &
gold they have. They cover this tactic with the story-tell of “pacific –war-
drills. When the NY people choose Parks-free-air they
destroy isolat-fear n pro-war NATO plans.
====
Don’t pay attention to ILL-mayor of Chicago.. Prepare a Referemdum
to put him down
"You
have to readjust your thinking. Be smart."
….
Is ‘smart: to take advantage de the
NAC GUARD (the army) to lock down-people, isolated and contaminated with fear
and then even kill if they go to parks with their neighbors? If one person is kill by the Army.. This stupid mayor may be killed
too. Avoid this n prepare REFERENDUM to depose
him
===
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
There’s more road
left for central banks,
but there’s no denying it
will be bumpy...
====
Could
stocks send some of their short squeeze over to oil?
It sure
could use some help.
====
….
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
====
ALAI ORG
====
RT
EN ESPAÑOL
US : el país con más casos diagnosticados del
coronavirus en el mundo https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/347743-eeuu-convierte-pais-mas-casos-coronavirus
Macron advierte riesgo de que "muera la zona
Schengen" debido al CV https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/347746-macron-advertir-riesgo-muerte-zona-schengen-coronavirus
Fiscalía VEN inicia proceso a Guaidó y Clíver Alcalá
por intento de golpe de Estado https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/347729-fiscalia-venezolana-abre-investigacion-guaido
Trump - Xi Jinping sobre el CV: "Estamos
trabajando juntos " https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/347779-trump-conversar-xi-jinping-covid19-trabajando-juntos
Encuentran en qué etapa el coronavirus puede ser más
infeccioso https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/347768-coronavirus-infeccioso-primera-semana-sintomas
Médicos chinos investig efectos del CV en el sistema
reproductivo masculino https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/347733-medicos-wuhan-estudio-impacto-coronavirus-hormonas-masculinas
Embajador US en Londres acusa a China de convertir
el CV en amenaza global https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/347710-embajador-eeuu-londres-acusar-china-coronavirus-amenaza-global Hay que despedir a ese xenófobo imbécil
¿Por qué mueren más hombres que mujeres por
coronavirus? https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/347742-mueren-hombres-mujeres-coronavirus
El coronavirus causa estragos en las zonas
dependientes del turismo en EE.UU. https://actualidad.rt.com/video/347688-coronavirus-causa-estragos-zonas-dependientes-turismo
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
A Brady Bond solution for America’s Economic
Crisis and Unpayable Corp Debt*
By Michael Hudson and Paul Craig Roberts
By Michael Hudson and Paul Craig Roberts
Nouriel Roubini warns there's a risk of a
'Greater Depression' as coronavirus spreads By Julia La Roche
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
- Bernie
Sanders Fights for Laid-off Worker Protections in $2 Trillion Stimulus with
Corporate Bailout
===
….
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