martes, 31 de marzo de 2020

MAR 31 ND SIT EC y POL



MAR 31  ND   SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Pareciera que la Economía funciona, pero las apariencias engañan

Amid an ever-escalating guess at the size of pension fund re-allocations funds (latest we saw was $150 billion) into month-end, both bonds and stocks were bid early on today, but as the day wore on, bonds weakened as stocks gained (driven by record IG issuance-driven rate-locks)...
See Chart:
Nasdaq  vs 10Y Yield

But while some are rebalancing into stocks, the scramble for cash among average Americans has almost never been more panicky...
See Chart:
US Currency Circulation week after week change

Just as notably, crude oil prices crashed to multi-decade lows today, completely decoupling from stocks (correlation crashed).
See Chart:

The question is - how long will the bounce last? If it's month-end, then 2008 is still in play...
See Chart:

Maybe it's better not to play... con las apariencias
And most of all, some context shows that today's ramp merely unwinds the carnage from the last 30 minutes of Friday... (note this was a 1300 points rally off overnight lows)
See Chart:

S&P and Nasdaq managed to erase that late-day plunge...(Note the Dow ended perfectly unch from Friday highs)
See Chart:

Breadth was very weak with declining volume dominating advancing volume for most of the day...
See Chart:

The Dow pushed back above the Dec 2008 lows today...
See Chart:
S&P 500 down

US IG credit has dramatically outperformed Europe since The Fed promise to start buying...  pero nadie cree en promesas
See Chart:

Treasuries were bid overnight but selling pressure accelerated as the US day session wore on (month-end rebalance and record IG issuance-driven rate-locks U.S. companies borrowed a record $109 billion, which was met with $550 billion of demand, in what one dealer called a “food fight” for new bonds, according to Bloomberg)
See Chart:
La linea verde indica que estamos de caida

Intraday, 10Y Yields fell back to a 59bps handle before the US session sell-off..
See Chart:
UST 10 Y Yield

Mission Accomplished for The Fed as Agency MBS dislocations have corrected...
See Chart:  Dawn

The B-Dollar Index managed little gains today (the first in 5 days and best in 7 days)...
See Chart
La caida es obvia, los little gains no la compensan

Commodities were all lower today led by crude's carnage...

WTI broke down to $19.27 at its lows (before bouncing back above $20.00 on the settle)...
See Chart:
Huele a massacre:  Lazaro se levanta.. pero el muerto siguió muriendo

And finally, as the oil market struggles with an unprecedented hit to demand caused by the coronavirus, its main measure of supply and demand is screaming that a historic glut is emerging.
See Chart
Hay supply pero solo para los de arriba

As Bloomberg details, Brent crude futures for May are now trading at an incredible $13.30 a barrel discount to November prices, a deeper and more bearish super-contango than the market saw even in the depths of the 2008-09 global financial crisis. 

Consultants say that, as things currently stand, the world is just a few months from running out of places to stash crude.
And we note that the 'Virus Fear'-trade started to pick up again today..
See Chart:
‘Virus Fear’ Trade :  SE promete liquidez para todos.. pero hay temor y poca fe
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The cyclically adjusted primary fiscal deficit to rise to 14% of GDP in 2020 (assuming stimulus of US$2.0 trillion) compared with 7% of GDP in 2009 – the highest level since the 1930s. The headline fiscal deficit will rise to around 18% of GDP in 2020.

The headline fiscal deficit will rise to around 18% of GDP in 2020.
See Chart:
US: Headline Fiscal Balance  (% of GDP)

With the help of this extraordinary policy action, and assuming an April/May Covid-19 peak, we expect the global economy to be on the mend from 3Q20 onwards.
See Chart:
Global Real GDP growth, %Y
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"Don’t look now but you’ve been screwed again... They will run patriotic commercials, while sticking a red white and blue dildo up your ass..."
 Those in charge never let a crisis go to waste. 9/11 was used to pass the Patriot Act and initiate nineteen years of declared and undeclared wars in the Middle East to create chaos, empower Israel, and abscond with the oil of sovereign countries.
The 2008/2009 crisis, created by the Fed and their Wall Street banker proprietors, was used by the powers that be to abscond with trillions in national wealth, while further enslaving senior citizens in poverty and forcing the working middle class further into debt servitude. Bernanke, Yellen, Geithner and a myriad of other banker flunkies have been richly rewarded for their traitorous actions by their Wall Street brethren, with tens of millions in compensation for their duty and honor to the cabal.
The men who created the 2008/2009 global financial collapse through their mortgage fraud scheme, used fear and panic in the markets to force the feckless pathetic bought off congress apparatchiks to pass TARP and dozens of other ridiculous “bailout bankers” schemes to provide a façade of recovery. There was never a recovery. The unpayable debt was papered over with trillions more of unpayable debt, until something snapped in September 2019.
 The first half of this twenty year, or so, Fourth Turning was ushered in by the 2008/2009 financial collapse and the subsequent disastrous solutions implemented by the ruling class in order to preserve their wealth, power and control. The taxpayer bailout of Wall Street should have been called NO BANKER LEFT BEHIND. 
The masses have been indoctrinated through government schools and propagandized by the captured corporate media to such an extent, they have been convinced abnormality and pillaging by the ruling class are both normal and acceptable. The world added $90 trillion of debt between 2000 and 2008, over a 100% increase. Bernanke, Yellen, Powell and their other central bank co-conspirators said hold my beer and added another $90 trillion since the first debt created crisis. 
 The Himalayan mountain of debt now stands at $253 trillion, or 322% of global GDP. Rogoff and Reinhart proved countries whose debt surpass 90% of GDP always proceed towards crisis and currency debasement.
See Chart:
GLOBAL DEBT HITS A RECORD HIGH
 Our very own CDC “experts” tell us the country has already experienced 38 to 54 million flu infections since October, with a half million hospitalizations, and at least 24,000 deaths, so why weren’t our hospitals overwhelmed? I know this is a serious virus, but the scare tactics being utilized by our overseers, corrupt politicians and their corporate media propaganda outlets is beyond excessive, and reveals a far more nefarious purpose.
See Charts:
About the CV and Health situation of Americans  
 Did we need to purposely create a global depression in order to defeat this virus? Will the benefits outweigh the cost? Is this health crisis being used by the monied interest swine to again gorge themselves at the taxpayer trough, robbing the public, while persuading them it’s for their advantage? The “conspiracy theorists” among us, who have been proven correct time after time over the last decade, know the answers to these questions:  
This is a controlled demolition by the powers that be as cover for their fraud, criminal schemes, and looting of the national treasure.
See Graphic:
Recovery!!  … FOR US!
“To rob the public, we must first deceive it. The trick consists in persuading the public that the theft is for its advantage; and by this means inducing it to accept, in exchange for its property, services which are fictitious, and often worse.”
 – Frederic Bastiat
 Only in a suicide cult, which our country has become, would the majority support and cheer for a corporate lobbyist written $2.2 trillion 873-page windfall to bankers, connected mega-corporations, and every special interest imaginable.  
 This doesn’t even account for the $4 trillion of secret payoffs and behind the scenes shenanigans of the Federal Reserve, as they do their part to support their banker owners once again. And just to make sure none of their despicable acts will see the light of day, the ruling class slipped in little clause titled:
SEC. 4009. TEMPORARY GOVERNMENT IN THE SUNSHINE ACT RELIEF. 
 We’ve shirked responsibility for our own lives by believing the very same people who didn’t see the crisis coming, weren’t prepared, and have failed miserably to centrally control the situation. We’ve given them the power over our lives and we are being led towards the slaughterhouse. It was our choice. We let fear overcome reason and courage. 
NATION OF SHEEP..  RULED BY WOLVES.. OWNED BY PIGS
Burning Platform
And to:
Nueva Democracia:  https://nd-hugoadan.blogspot.com/
Hugo Adan Zegarra: 314 Ophelia St. Pittsburgh PA 15213
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SHORT ECONOMIC NEWS
"This change has been made to ensure the Desk has sufficient time to obtain all bids from eligible counterparties on quarter end in light of remote working arrangements of eligible counterparties" 
The chart below demonstrates the collapse in TSY submissions to the Fed's repo operations ever since QE Unlimited was launched, which also meant that instead of parking their bonds at the Fed for up to 3 turbulent months, with an avalanche of new debt coming down the pipe, Dealers could just sell them to the Fed instead.  SEE CHART:
"Why on Earth you would tie something up for three months in repo with the Fed buying," .. "I think people are getting wise to the fact that an absolute tsunami of global sovereign debt issuance is on its way. Best to sell it all to the fed NOW probably."
Meanwhile, instead of worrying about the repo - which thanks to Unlimited QE is now irrelevant - the Fed shoudl be much more focused on what is going on with uptake of its reverse repo operation.. SEE CHART:
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The memo said suspending rebalancing
during extreme periods of volatility is prudent.
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The energy sector has lost extraordinarily $1.15trn in market value this year as oil prices have plunged to almost unimaginable levels...
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Hay especuladores que retiraron su sobre acumulación de capital del Mercado financiero interno  (sea por alta volatitidad y en espera de un mejor momento ..que no llego,  o sea por el CV tambien  los afecto) En realidad, los super-billonarios no fueron afectados ni por el CV ni por la dinámica Keynesiana. De este sistema recibieron los bailouts y los QEs, ellos prefirieron dormir sobre sus billones que invertirlos  para aligerar la explosiva  desigualdad  que crearon. 
Dos economistas dijeron que la recession es el momento preciso para liquidarlos, de lo contrario son ellos quienes liquidarían a Trump. Hayes indico que es la recesión lo que permite liquidarlos, es lo único positivo de una recesión. 
Fue lo que Keynes sugirió a FDR y este lo hizo, les confisco no solo su oro, a algunos evasores de impuestos les confisco su Capital acumulado en bancos del pais.
 Krugman dijo que el daño de estos super billonarios fue desmontar la dinámica del spending que sugirió Keynes ( el spending the labor o consumidor de pueblo, el spending del inversor productivo y el del mismo Estado, a estos spending Keynes le llamo ‘agregated demand’) Y la demanda agregada es la clave del crecimiento económico, y es lo que da fueza al GDP. 
La unica razón por la que Trump no los liquidaría es porque él es cómplice o parte de ese Fraude.   
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

The silver lining is that this next crisis could finally demolish the Keynesian welfare-warfare state and the fiat money system...
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DoD leaders "worried adversaries could exploit such information, especially if the data showed the outbreak impacted U.S. nuclear forces or other critical units."
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Despite an observable urge for the regulatory agencies to crush the culture of vitamins and erase their history, it’s leaking out into the mainstream that intravenous (IV) vitamin C in high doses is effectiveagainst COVID-19...
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"I hope it works"...
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The Treasury has taken decisive action and is literally flooding the market with T-Bills to satisfy the market's panicked need for cash-equivalent paper.
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"It could never happen again..."
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"You do not matter. The imperial statedoesn’t care about you. Oligarchs don’t care about you. Mega corporations don’t care about you..."
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Congratulations America, you were just bought by a group of anonymous bankers with your own elected politicians making it possible.
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...here's where the $2 trillion will be spent...
See Chart:

Broadly speaking, there are five components to the COVID-19 stimulus bill:
See Chart:
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As we wait for scientists to develop a vaccine for COVID-19, there is another, more readily available tool at our disposal. Social distancing is the first line of defense for containing an infectious disease...  See Chart
Theoretical Potential
Using a summation formula makes it possible to estimate the number of new infections over a 30 day period, across three scenarios.  See Chart
The results, for a community of 30,000 people and an epidemic with R=2.5, are charted below. We can define the final illness attack rate as the share of people from an at risk population who ultimately catch the disease.  See Chart
Results showed that when no action was taken, 65% of the population contracted the disease. However, if a combination of all four distancing measures were implemented instead, the attack rates were:
45% (distancing begins after a 4 week delay)
21% (distancing begins after a 3 week delay)
7% (distancing begins after a 2 week delay)
SOURCE: 
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They're going to need to ramp up production of these drugs...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

Human beings fear what they do not understand and that fear causes them to behave in irrational and destructive ways. The current Covid-19 pandemic is a perfect example of that...
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TIT for TAT: Trump accused China of causing CV and now comes the boomerang
"Do you think the Americans came to Wuhan to buy soy sauce?"
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Rather, obnoxiously, I would suggest, you give some consideration to thepossibility that there is no reasonable side to the Saudis - not as it would pertain to our interests...
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"Brazil cannot stop or we'll turn into Venezuela..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

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ALAI ORG

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EL RESTO PARA MAÑANA
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