jueves, 19 de marzo de 2020

ND MAR 19 20 SIT EC y POL



ND  MAR 19  20  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

 ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

WHATEVER THE FED IS DOING :"IT'S NOT WORKING!"
Global stock and bond markets have seen $25 trillion of 'paper' wealth erased in the last month, wiping out all the gains from the Dec 2018 crash lows....
See Chart:

Global bonds are actually still up around $5 trillion while global stocks have lost around $5 trillion since the Dec 2018 lows, and a lot of those losses come from the US markets where the median stock is now down 50% from its highs...(because the Value Line index below is based on a geometric average the daily change is closest to the median stock price change)
See Chart:
Value Line Geometric Composite Index ‘Median’ stock index  (-50% in 2019)

As Washington signs and promises more and more bailouts and helicopter money drops, USA sovereign risk is starting to get a little spooked...
See Chart:
USA Sovereign  5 Y CDS

Systemic risk remains extremely elevated...
See Chart:
Implied S&P Correlation ‘Systemic Risk Indicator’

Which makes sense when the world's largest banks are seeing their credit risk explode like it did ahead of the Lehman crisis...
See Chart:

And despite the endless liquidity from global central banks and polititicians, financial conditions are tightening at their fastest rate ever...
See Chart:
US Financial Conditions:  Easier  vs. Tighter

And the real 'fear' trade is now at its most extreme since the peak of the Lehman crisis...
See Chart:
Covit -19  Fear Trade:  ‘Long Foot,  Short Leissure’

B-Dollar Index: Policy Fail - The Dollar rallied for the 8th straight day, soaring to a new record high despite The Fed opening unlimited FX Swap Lines...
See Chart:

This is the largest 8-day rally in the DXY Dollar Index... ever! Greater even than when Soros broke The Bank of England in Sept 1992...
See Chart:
8 dy Change in DXY DOLLAR INDEX vs.  Black Wednesday Sept 1992

But The Fed will "never give in"...
Since the COVID-19 Malrarkey began, Chinese stocks remain the leaders (down only 12%), while Europe is the laggard...
See Chart:

US equity markets soared today (thanks to the biggest short-squeeze in 7 years), but failed to erase yesterday's gains... (NOTE Nasdaq just tagged unch from Tuesday and then rolled over - algo-tom-foolery)..
On the week, it's still a shit-show with The Dow worst, down 13%...
Today saw "Most Shorted" stocks soar 8% - the biggest short-squeeze since August 2013...
See Chart:
“Most Shorted” Stocks

VIX fell notably today, testing below 70 ahead of tomorrow's Quad-Witch option expiry...
See Chart:

Meanwhile, Boeing credit risk continues to soar (as questions rise about whether they should be bailed out or not)...
And Ford suspended its dividend and withdrew its guidance sending its credit risk soaring...
Credit markets were not buying what stocks were selling today...
See Chart:

Treasury yields were mixed with the long-end higher and rest of the modestly lower (despite a huge range)... (10Y yields briefly dipped below 1.00% today)
UST 30y Yield Another late-day purge in yields pushed 30Y to end higher on the day...
See Chart:

Munis-Bond  were massacred today - 10Y yield spiking 47bps!! (MUNI-BOND OUTFLOW ALMOST THREE TIMES PREVIOUS RECORD)
See Chart:
Muni 10 Y Yield

EUR-USD  tumbled today to 3 year lows today in biggest loss since Jan 2001 (bigger than Jun 2016 Brexit vote loss)
See Chart:
EUR-USD

Today's commodity markets were dominate by oil's biggest rally ever...however, given the carnage in crude, WTI is still down 20% on the week...
See Chart:

Oil and the dollar both rallied together late on...
See Chart:
World Trade Index Crude  vs. Dollar index (inv)

Finally, as Bloomberg notes, anyone referring to the past month’s plunge in U.S. stocks as a crash has history on their side. The S&P 500 Index’s volatility for the 10 trading days ended Wednesday was 122%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
See Chart:

Only two periods have produced higher readings: the aftermath of the 1929 Black Tuesday crash and the 1987 Black Monday crash. The volatility gauge climbed more than 17-fold from Feb. 19, when the S&P 500’s latest bull market ended, through Wednesday.
The FRA-OIS spread spiked once again today signaling major tensions in the liquidity markets remain...
See Chart:
3m FRA-OIS SPREAD

And global basis swaps spiked again (led by JPY) as the dollar shortage worsened today...
See Chart:
Global Basis Swap  vs.  Dollar shortage
In other words - WHATEVER THE FED IS DOING - "IT'S NOT WORKING!"
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Given the potential harm caused by the divergence between stimulus and economic fundamentals, it would be short-sighted and irresponsibly pragmatic to count out the prospect of inflation...
See Chart:
US Budget deficit and Unemployment

The springboard for that scenario was a pragmatic policy designed to solve an immediate problem with no regard for the future. Monetary policy that suppressed interest rates and fiscal policy that took advantage of artificially low interest rates to accumulate debt at a relatively low cost went against the American public best interests. The public could not conceive that government “of, by and for the people” would act in such a short-sighted and self-serving manner.
See Chart:
US Treasury 10Y Yield
See more charts at:
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The aggressive selling has added to market volatility as bids continue to back up as natural buyers disappear.
See Charts:
Fig 2: The S&P500 is stuck in a negative feedback loop: lead to aggressive selling
Fig 3: CTAs has been aggressively buying treasuries even if Yield = Zero
Needless to say, volatility across asset classes remains elevated as a result of the sharp virus-driven moves, albeit from a very low base. We fully expect market volatility to remain elevated in this environment and as systematic market flows shift into and out of asset classes.
CTA funds as investors became disillusioned with the strategy after years of poor performance, a fact we highlighted in an earlier note “CTA and Managed Futures primer”. 
See Chart:
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The deleveraging process currently under way by top-down investors such as global macro hedge funds and risk-parity funds is having an impact on bottom-up strategies, and is thus spawning a vicious cycle of further portfolio adjustments.
This increase in cross-asset correlation introduces two problems. The first is adecline in portfolio diversification effectsSpecifically, as the volatility of each asset class increases, as is the case at present, balanced funds and risk-parity funds get pushed into gamma short strategies because of decreased leverage and increased proxy hedging stemming from a growing amount of portfolio risk. This kind of gamma short operation tends to exacerbate transactions in one direction.
See Charts:

The second is a tendency for the interdependency of individual investment strategies to rise. For example, hedge fund strategies that were originally independent have begun to exhibit greater linkage.
See Chart
Specifically, the performance of top-down strategies by CTAs, global macro hedge funds, and risk-parity funds has tended to worsen when cross-asset correlation is high. 
In other words, the deleveraging process currently under way by top-down investors such as global macro hedge funds and risk-parity funds is having an impact on bottom-up strategies, and we think portfolio adjustments at hedge funds on the whole are thus spawning a vicious cycle of further portfolio adjustments.
See Charts:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

Investors don’t trust Trump:
IT WAS ANOTHER BOMBASTIC PRESS CONFERENCE
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That was their CONCLUSSION
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Another distrust on Trump.. [also simulated by manipulation of the title-art ]
"What’s happening has not happened in our lifetime before.
What we have is acrisis..."
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Trump is loosing and loosing votes for 2020 election. I don’t  think he can win Sanders If he run as Indep-candid with a party-front with socialist & Progresiv
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Unfortunately, some of our politicians
are apparently thinking about the unthinkable...
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That title pre-assumes the attack of US-Penta-NATO  (40,000 soldiers already displayed) as soon as the vaccine for CV is finally reached (I guess China already got it) and the US-Germany are close to get it. BUT the CV can still infect most of our soldiers.. and with seek soldiers there is NO chance of victory in WW3. World War 3 is the only valid assumption to restrict Civil Liberties beyond the levels we have today (Trump got control of main big Media). Since there is not other valid argument for the cut.. neither WW3 nor Civil Lib-Cut will happen. IF WW3 happens, MAD will prevail & huge world attack to US Embassies & US Companies will happen, inside US the Econ & Polit chaos will be also huge.
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"The shortage of dollar liquidity is not because banks are afraid of each other, BUT BECAUSE THEY ARE WORRIED ABOUT THEIR CLIENTS."
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That is true.. during the Mexican crisis  (3-4 decades ago) lo 1ro que el pueblo hambriento asalto fueron los Bancos y cuando no pudieron entrar los quemarom con molotov.. aquí en el US también podría ocurrir lo mismo y peor porque el pueblo está mejor armado. Desarmarlos es imposible, it will be sign of internal war. In crisis period: everybody will need arms to defend their life.
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“Everybody has lost their minds...”
LISTEN HIS VIDEO AT:
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Sven Henrich said The structural bull market did not end in 2020. No Sir, it ended in the fall of 2018 and I can prove it. Nice charts & comments. Open it
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"We have community acquired transmission in 23 counties..."
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The most DEM the STATE… the least protected by the FED: Nasty trumpism?
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Helicopter money has become an assumption at this point; however, the ability of businesses to stay viable during the shutdown is even more relevant...
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..this is not the time to be questioning anything the corporate media and the authorities tell us. This is a time to pull together, turn our minds off, and follow orders
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

HERE CAN START WW3. AQUI PUEDE EMPEZAR EL WW3
"We have a lot of power over the situation. We are trying to find some kind of a medium ground," Trump said.
....
RELATED:
"We will not be bullied..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
FEM:  Paternidad & Igualdad   PADRES  Patricia Merino
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ALAI ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

Más de 2.200 casos y 22 fallecidos: el CV, presente en toda América Latina y el Caribe https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/346784-cifras-coronavirus-america-latina-excepto-haiti
Bank of America asegura que la recesión ya ha llegado a EE.UU.   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/346748-bank-america-recesion-eeuu
Hubei, epicentro del coronavirus, celebra su segundo día libre de contagios   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/346856-hubei-segundo-dia-sin-nuevos-casos
Ministerio ruso de Salud: La incidencia de coronavirus puede volverse estacional   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/346818-incidencia-coronavirus-puede-volverse-estacional
Venezuela activa  puente aéreo permanente con China para combatir el coronavirus https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/346793-venezuela-anuncia-puente-aereo-china-coronavirus
Los casos de coronavirus en EE.UU. superan los 10.000, el doble en sólo dos días   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/346777-coronavirus-eeuu-superan-doble-dos-dias
El coronavirus afecta a la vida política de América Latina   https://actualidad.rt.com/video/346849-coronavirus-afecta-vida-politica-america-latina
Cuba ayuda a otros países a frenar el covid-19 con el envío de brigadas médicas  https://actualidad.rt.com/video/346753-cuba-ayuda-paises-frenar-coronavirus-medicos
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

All Truth Has Three Stages  Must Read - By Larry Romanoff
CV: They Knew, And Didn’t Tell Us  By Rod Dreher
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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