jueves, 5 de marzo de 2020

ND MAR 5 20 SIT EC y POL



ND  MAR 5  20  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

 ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

WORLD RECESSION OFFICIALLY DECLARED:

So much for the 'Biden Bounce'. Watching the markets today  - as The Dow plunged 1000 points, Treasury yields collapsed to record lows, credit markets imploded, and demands for more Fed intervention exploded - has one veteran trader remarking, "this is becoming a super-puke."
It seems the stock market is 'stuffed' with Fed intervention and 'just one waffer-thin mint' more may spark the total destruction of markets.
The market is in panic mode - demanding over 50bps more rate-cuts in March as stocks collapse...
See Chart:
March FED rate change-Priced-in  by Market

Credit spreads are exploding wider (decompressing 9 of the last 11 days - the biggest blowout since June 2013) - now at their widest since 2016...
See Chart:
US HY Corporate Bond  OAS

Sending an ugly message to stocks...
See Chart:
S&P  vs. US HY Corporate Bond  OAS (inv)

10Y Treasury yields plunged to new record lows...
See Chart:

And gold (safe-haven) was aggressively bid...
In fact, since The Fed enacted an emergency 50bps rate-cut, Gold is soaring as the dollar and stocks faded...
See Chart:

And before we dive into some of the details, this made us laugh - China - the epicenter of the collapse in global supply chains - has seen its stock market MIRACULOUSLY soar back to pre-Covid-19 levels... as Europe and US crash...
See Chart:

Amid all this chaos, Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P are still up 2-3% on the week, Small Caps and Trannies are red though...
See Chart:

Dow tumbled back below 26k and then the battle began for the algos...
See Chart:

Another 1000-point day for the Dow - just how crazy is this vol? It's the most extreme since the very peak of Europe's debt crisis...
See Chart:

Bank stocks entered a bear market today, tumbling to their weakest since Jan 2019...
See Chart:
S&P  Bank Index

Global Systemically Important Banks are collapsing...
See Chart:

The Big US Banks were clubbed like baby seals...
See Chart:

The VIX term structure is its most inverted since Lehman...
See Chart:

While stocks feel like they have plunged, they have a long way to go to catch up to bonds' reality...
See Chart:

Treasury yields crashed today down 10-15bps across the curve with the long-end outperforming...
See Chart:

The B-Dollar slipped back to post-Powell-cut lows - this is the lowest for the dollar since January...
See Chart:

WTI plunged back to a $45 handle after OPEC+ talks did not seem to go well (damn you Putin!)...
See Chart:

Finally, with a h/t to John Lohman, the Coronavirus Fear Index is exploding..."Long panic-buying food, short travel and entertainment"
See Chart:
"Probably nothing!"  [considering what is coming ]
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"Our model indicates that, in such a scenario, there’s room for further short-term losses..."
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...we are witnessing something that has not been seen in several generations. It is an event far more destructive than the Great Depression with market implications beyond what happened in 2008...
I think it’s important to note that when manipulation does occur, it is almost always to suppress prices, not to rally them. Why is that? Well, this is where we can only speculate, but there are a number of reasons why international banks and central banks would want to keep metals prices under control.
For example, precious metals act as investment competition against equities as well as currencies. Suppressed metals prices push investors into other assets like stocks or the dollar, giving a temporary boost to flailing markets.
Continue reading at:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

"We have shown that a woman can stand up, hold her ground, and stay true to herself – no matter what."
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E-Warren es sin duda la mejor candidata de Sanders a VP . Ahora en las primarias los votos para ambos se unen para derrotar a Trump y Biden. Ahora si la VICTORIA  de SANDERS es segura. Y aun si los billonarios quieren sacarlos del Pdo Democrata con sus fraudes, Sanders y Warren ganan si lideran un Pdo independiente.
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THE PAST 30 YEARS OF FALSE PROSPERITY IS OVER...
 Ten malefic trends will dominate national life during the long night of reckoning which lies ahead.
  1. The spectacular failure of Keynesian central banking;
  2. A prolonged, painful reversal of the three-decade long hyper-inflation of financial asset prices that has resulted in the Everything Bubble;
  3. The violent implosion of America’s fiscal accounts;
  4. An intensified central bank war on savers, fixed income retirees and holders of cash;
  5.  Peak Debt-induced suffocation of domestic economic growth;
  6. Ferocious global economic headwinds arising from the demise of the Red Ponzi;
  7. An outbreak of unprecedented partisan acrimony rendering Washington completely dysfunctional and imperiling America’s very constitutional foundation;
  8. The lapse of Imperial Washington into belligerence, retreat and failure all around the planet;
  9. The Baby Boom retirement tsunami, which will cause entitlement spending to soar and generational conflict to erupt like never before; and
  10. A virulent outbreak of class warfare and redistributionist political conflict unprecedented in American history owing to a stagnating economic pie.
Moreover, there is a powerful reason to keep abreast of these Turbulent Ten trends.
Needless to say, these forms of crisis and financial engineering redistribute financial wealth to the top 1% and 10% of households. The latter own 40% and 85% of the stock, respectively, and they have gained mightily since Greenspan initiated the present era of Keynesian central banking in the late 1980s.
See Chart:
The Wealthiest  American Own an increasingly share of the Wealth

At the end of the day, the relentless and ever deepening financial recession—especially during the decade since the financial crisis— has generated precious little gain in national output and jobs beyond what capitalism does on its own.
For example, manufacturing production is still 2% below pre-crisis levels of November 2007. And total industrial production has crept just 4% higher over 12 years.
See Chart:
Moreover, even the huge one-time inflation of financial asset prices on Wall Street didn’t embody sustainable real wealth because it was primarily based on multiple expansion, not earnings growth.
Exactly 31-years ago in early 1989, for instance, the S&P 500 index stood at 295 where it represented 12X earnings of $25 per share.
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And that will pave the way for the Turbulent Twenties, and for the unfolding of all the hateful factors listed above.
See Chart:
FRED Assets : Total assets (less elimination from consolidation). Wed level
Shaded area indicates US recessions
Continue reading ..  FINAL WORDS:
Donald just flat-out doesn’t care and he’s taking the GOP with him into fiscal fantasy-land.”
It is only a matter of time before the impending collision shatters the faux prosperity and wanton complacency that prevails on both Wall Street and in Washington.
Still, it is not too late to get prepared.
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As people across the country frantically attempt to get prepared for the possibility of quarantines and illness during the Covid-19 outbreak, store shelves across the country are getting stripped bare...
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RELATED 1:
We now have a market that is very sensitive to natural supply/demand dynamics.
All is not well and the cost of trading has risen sharply. Widening bid/offer spreads and increased impact of trading is related to a reluctance of market markers to offer or bid for meaningful sizes (less HFT participation is likely related). As a result, we now have a market that is very sensitive to natural supply/demand dynamics.
See Charts:
See other interesting charts at:
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RELATED 2:
“Holy cow, if the Fed is taking EMERGENCY action, things must be even worse than we thought...”
On October 19, 1987, the US stock market suffered the worst crash in its more than 200 year history, dropping more than 23% in a matter of hours.
In October 20th, the Federal Reserve announced that they would do whatever it takes to support the economy.  And ten days later they cut interest rates by 0.5%. 
Yesterday the Federal Reserve did the same thing. Stock markets worldwide have been jittery lately due to Corona Virus fears, so the Federal Reserve stepped in and cut interest rates by 0.5%.
There are many things that are remarkable about this:
First, the Fed already has a regularly scheduled meeting coming up in two weeks on March 17th. But apparently they thought the situation was so severe that they held an emergency meeting yesterday and hastily voted to cut interest rates by 0.5%.
Today’s stock market turmoil is nowhere near as bad as it was in 1987.Sure, the market is down around 10% over the past two weeks.
2nd. Ironically, this interest rate cut caused investors to panic even more. After the Fed made its announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted another 800 points.

But as of yesterday morning, the Fed’s benchmark interest was just 1.75%. So a 0.5% cut is pretty huge. Do the math– they cut interest rates by nearly a third, down to 1.25%.
See Chart:

This gives them VERY little room to cut rates further when the US economy enters RECESSION, virtually guaranteeing that interest rates in the Land of the Free will go negative.  [ I guess Trump did it because the whole world is in recession Now ]
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MY OPINION
The purpose of cutting rate now is to facilitate money creation and circulation. This new currency can be borrow to reactivate the Econ where is needed. Esto si puede facilitar un boom artificial as expanding companies can hire labor. Pero puede tambien generar un ’bust’ si la demanda reactivada (capacidad de compra) se basó en la suba de precios por caída del USD  o por inflación. Si esto ocurre tenemos una demanda artificial no basada en el ahorro sino en dinero prestado (deuda) y eso si podría generar una crisis mayor en el corto plazo, si el mercado del contexto mundial así lo determina.  
Hugo Adan No soy economista pero tuve que tomar 2 cursos como parte de mi formación como sociólogo en Perú y uno de ellos fue justo sobre Keynesian Economy. Mi especialidad en Sociologia es “Systems Theory” lo que use (en un equipo de 10 en la Univ de Pitt) para formular reformas educativas que el Banco Mundial vendía a los Saudis y paises opulentos del entorno Musulman.  
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La corrupta burocracia syndical in the US… Dem or REP? .. they are similar
Prosecutors claimed Jones used union funds to finance "trips, liquor and other luxuries" despite presenting himself as a labor leader and man of the people...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

Perhaps it'll last barely longer than the recent hyped US-Taliban peace deal
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Divorced from reality...
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"no, it's not 'just like the flu, bro!"
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
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ALAI ORG
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RT EN ESPAÑOL

Assad: Si los USAnos  y los turcos no dejan Siria tras las negociaciones, usaremos la fuerza  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/345076-assad-estadounidenses-turcos-dejan-siria
Alto el fuego, patrullas conjuntas y corredor de seguridad: acuerdan Putin y Erdogan https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/345074-putin-erdogan-moscu-soluciones-idlib
Trump propondrá a Rusia y China un nuevo acuerdo de control de armas   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/345089-trump-iniciativa-control-armas-rusia-china
Un misionero brasileño es condenado por dar un arma de fuego a indígenas  https://actualidad.rt.com/video/345101-indigenas-denuncian-trato-injusto-gestion-bolsonaro
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

- Democraticide  By Paul Edwards
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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