martes, 31 de julio de 2018

TUES JULY 31 18 SIT EC y POL



TUES  JULY 31  18  SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Econ debacle in the US: Crude and Yield Curve Collapse

This seemed to sum up the month rather well...
July high- (and low-) lights
·         China CHINEXT down for 4th straight month to lowest since Jan 2015
·         Shanghai Composite best month since Jan 2018
·         DAX best month since Sept 2017
·         Trannies best month since Nov 2016 (US election)
·         Dow, S&P's best month since January 2018
·         Small Caps up for 5th month in a row
·         Nasdaq up for 4th month in a row
·         FANG Stocks worst month since Nov 2016 (US election)
·         TWTR worst month...ever
·         FB worst month since Aug 2012
·         NFLX worst month since Jan 2016
·         TSLA worst month since March
·         UST Yield Curve flattened for 5th straight month to Aug 2007 flats
·         The Dollar Index fell on the month - first drop in 4 months
·         Offshore Yuan dumped for 4th straight month to 13-month lows
·         Emerging Market FX had first monthly gain since Jan 2018
·         Bitcoin's best month since April
·         Gold fell for the 4th month in a row (lowest monthly close since Jan 2017)
·         Copper's worst month since Dec 2016
·         WTI Crude's worst month since July 2016
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China stocks were mixed for the month with CHINEXT (China 'Nasdaq') worst..
See Chart:


All major European indices green for July...
See Chart:


US: Semiconductor stocks continue to be a bright spot in an earnings season that has taken its toll on technology investors.
KLA-Tencor Corp. led the group higher Tuesday, climbing as much as 15 percent for the biggest gain in almost three years, after its fourth-quarter results topped the highest expectations. The report echoed a theme of strong demand just days after heavyweights like Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Xilinx Inc. crushed expectations.
See Chart:


The strength in chip stocks has been magnified as tech investors slammed the sell button for tech darlings in the FANG bloc. The megacap group has stumbled through a rocky earnings season that pushed the FANG Index down 9.3 percent over a three-day slump following Facebook Inc.’s record meltdown. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 1.9 percent Thursday, defying the Facebook-led rout, and added another 1.3 percent on Tuesday.
Value stocks outperformed growth for the first month since March
SEE Chart:


Global bond prices fell on the month thanks to BoJ rumors (but barely bounced back on BoJ non-news)...
See Chart:


The Yield curve flattened for the 5th month in a row (and 14th of last 16) to its lowest monthly close since Aug 07...
See Chart:


All eyes were on The BoJ last night  - who disappointed - sending the yield curve tumbling back to pre-rumor levels (and for now, bank stocks haven't caught all the way down)...
See Chart:


The Dollar had its first monthly drop in 4 months.
See Chart:


Notably, Yuan spiked today after headlines implied some potential progress on the US-China trade waR...
See Chart:


And the Dollar also spiked at the same time...
See Chart:


Emerging Markets FX managed its first monthly gain since January
See Chart:


Despite Dollar weakness, commodities lower across the board in July with Crude down most since July 2016...
See Chart:
See all charts in this source:
In my view
1-The TRADE WAR IS HITTING BOTH THE US AND CHINA
Fact 1.1 US selling-buying of stocks were magnified artificially to recycle USD, the fact is that Value stocks outperformed growth for the first month since March  see chart above
See Also: The Dollar had its first monthly drop in 4 months.. see above chart  above:

F 1.2. China case: See chart:  China stocks were mixed for the month with CHINEXT (China 'Nasdaq') worst..
F1.3. US case:  The Yield curve flattened for the 5th month in a row (and 14th of last 16) to its lowest monthly close since Aug 07...see chart above

2- When furious lions fight like cannibals.. those who don’t fight get benefits:
See chart: All major European indices green for July...

3- When China-US get PEACE in trade war  both benefit
See Notably, Yuan spiked today after headlines implied some potential progress on the US-China trade waR... see chart above
See Also: And the Dollar also spiked at the same time...

4- However, the GODS of the poor celebrate the cannibal fight and bless the poor
See   On the month of July, the Mexican Peso was the strongest against the dollar  see graph:  https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-07-31_8-00-40_0.jpg?itok=p-iBituz   Real Gods, IF exist, are sided with the poor.

My final observation:
Africans use to SAY  “ cuando los elefantes pelean, quien sufre es el grass: los de abajo sufren. En el TRADE-WAR de hoy ocurre lo inverso: son los “inversionistas de arriba” los que más pierden y es el imperio mayor el que también pierde más.  Y no solo ellos pierden,  también la gran iglesia cristiana pierde adeptos. El GOD BLESS AMERICA va quedando obsoleto  por bendecir dictaduras. Si no lo creen, pregúntele al Papa y su bendición a la dictad ARG del plan Condor, after Allende kill in Chile.
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WORLD RECESSION IS ON.. Stop supporting fake “financiers”.. pay attent to middle & work-class.. Rememb: during 1930’ Rec.. COOPS & worker unions save Educ. In school not closed: alivio a crisis


"We can dress up the wider flexibility of the yield-curve control policy, but it is really mostly just more of the same."
See Chart:


[ One more chart: check similarit with US ] The Bank of Japan disappointed last night as East Coast traders had to wait for the longest time since 2016 for Kuroda to do practically nothing, creating an unwind of last week's anxiety-driven spike in bond yields.
See Chart:

[ La caída del US va a ser igual o peor, JA solo siguió nuestro ejemplo y cayo 1ro. Cuando el mal es de todos, se requiere solidarid.. no celebrar la caída de otros ni culparlos de efectos mundiales que todo el West creo, inclusión aparte la de  Russia and China.  It is Time to stop  Neoliberal Economy. The rich who got the money (QEs) is egoistic, narcissist & insane.. We have to stop their gluttony. They deserve Tobin Tax to save middle product Com  & Working  classes  .. otherwise all Politica Gob & their democ will fall one by one. We can see this instability starting now.. AVOID THE WORSE! At least, our  RU-Chi & Iran phobias is getting off. Mr Presid Trump: Give them a good hit and bye-bye to hillarian war mongers. And go Moscow to get a deal to save d World and then go to China and Iran too. So far. You Mr. Presid Trump did THE BEST by hitting Koch brothers. YOU ARE REAL PRESID NOW.  Hugo Adan ]
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WHAT ARE FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS TELLING THEIR CLIENTS ABOUT "INVESTING FOR THE LONG RUN"?  Stupid news  .. but anyway .. the charts has some value
"Achieving 'growth' among an indefinitely shrinking pie is a fools errand which will only have progressively worse consequences."
See Chart: High Income Country Population 1959-2050

See more charts related at:
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"The next large QT-weekly reduction ironically enough is happening in an action-packed week, where on 1 Aug the Fed’s UST holdings will decline by $24bn."
See Chart:

See other interesting Charts at
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Use of this financial instrument has ballooned. No one knows to what extent because there’s no disclosure. But it was a “key contributor” to the sudden collapse of outsourcing giant Carillion...

READ THIS:
As regulators and stiffed creditors were poking through the debris of collapsed outsourcing giant Carillion – once employing 43,000 people worldwide – they found that the UK company had hidden much of its debts. And Fitch Ratings warned that this “technique” – a “debt loophole” – may be “widespread” in the US and Europe.

Carillion provided services to governments. It didn’t manufacture anything, didn’t have a lot of assets, and didn’t have a lot of debt – at least not disclosed on its books. Net debt on its balance sheet amounted to £219 million. But Fitch estimates that it had an additional financial debt of £400 million to £500 million.

This debt was hidden by a “technique commonly referred to as reverse factoring, Fitch says. And it was a key contributor to Carillion’s liquidation.”

But this was financial debt owed to banks – not trade accounts payable.
Any disclosure?
Cash obtained via reverse factoring is particularly fragile because when this company gets into financial distress, the bank simple cancels the reverse factoring program, and the company will have to come up with funding to pay down its accounts payable to the terms agreed to with suppliers.

To use our example above, the buyer would have to come up with $66.7 million to pay down its payables from 180 days to 60 days – and this would happen as the buyer is already under financial stress, just when it can no longer borrow money at survivable rates. This is how reverse factoring increases the likelihood of a sudden default and Carillion-style collapse.

“Sectors that are large users of reverse factoring include consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, chemicals, retail, and aerospace,” Fitch says.

GM, Fiat Chrysler, and Ford all got ugly in unison, in one day, something we haven’t seen since the Financial Crisis. Read…  Carmageddon in Detroit  
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"... there can be no denying that so far, I am wrong and the yield curve keeps going down faster than the plate of drinks at the end of David Hasselhoff’s table after a taping of Britain’s Got Talent."

Yet there can be no denying that so far, I am wrong and the yield curve keeps going down faster than the plate of drinks at the end of David Hasselhoff’s table after a taping of Britain’s Got Talent.
See Chart:


Much to my surprise, there were more people googling “yield curve” in 2005 than today. Would have never guessed that.

My take? All the “real” bond traders will become even more frustrated in the coming months as yield curve talk continues to dominate the airwaves. Watch for even more “yield-curve-disaster-in-the-making” articles.

Markets never set up so neatly
Let’s have a look at why so many seem obsessed with watching the yield curve. During the past three recessions, the 2-10 year US Treasury yield spread went negative about a year before the onset of the economic slowdown.
See Chart:


I admit it - I’m a yield curve apologist
One of my favourite fixed-income strategists is Janney’s Guy LeBas. Lately I have been having a good laugh at Guy’s labeling of pundits as “yield-curve-apologists.” If I may paraphrase his argument, Guy believes the world’s largest market’s collective wisdom is the best signal out there and for those that somehow find a way to convince themselves they know better than the market are arrogant beyond belief. Yeah, I get it. We all know the most expensive four words in the history of investing

Guy has little time for the central banking academic sect who warn the yield curve might no longer be a reliable economic signal, ironically, due to the quantitative easing programs central banks themselves instituted. From the FT:
See picture with BERNAKE warning


But what if the Fed is influencing the yield curve in another way?

As I have mentioned before, I believe the exponentially growing amount of sovereign debt and government’s willingness to inflate it away will eventually cause the yield curve to hit all-time wides.I find it perplexing that often those market participants most worried about the growing government debt are the very same ones advocating owning long-dated “supposedly safesovereign bondsThe more debt that is created, I believe the more likely it will be inflated away.

Falling natural level of interest
This R* or the natural level of interest has been falling for quite some time.
See Chart:

Yet what I am even more sure of is that at major turning points in market cycles, old paradigms die hard. Did the bond market would kill inflation? Not a chance. Even when he cranked short-term rates, markets assumed inflation would continue rising aggressively. So where was the “collective wisdom” of that market reaction?

My suspicion is that the yield curve will get increasingly more volatile as we progress through this next change from a dis-inflationary to inflationary environment.
Now I have to run. LeBas wants to scold me on twitter for my idiocy of joining the #yieldcurveapologists…
               
Bernanke favorite quote
Madness is rare in individuals
But in groups, parties Nations and ages
It is the rule  Friedrich Nietzsche
Read the full article at:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist  duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s  full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo

If true.. the BEST move of Trump .. Koch Brothers have kill many farmers in US & envormt too

"Their network is highly overrated, I have beaten them at every turn. They want to protect their companies outside the U.S. from being taxed, I’m for America First & the American Worker - a puppet for no one."
[[Koch Brothers have damaged US Econ more than trade-war so far.. they deserved T-policy]]
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"This is a pretty strong reminder of how low governments will sink when they become financially desperate..."
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"Our research has found virtually no public safety rationale for the ongoing arrest and prosecution of marijuana smoking"

[[ La marihuana no crea adicción ni daña el cerebro de nadie.. El adictivo le es agregado y no solo eso, tambien se le agrega el veneno llamado crack (pasta básica) para darle fuerza a la marih criada en las terrazas de una casa.. La marih orgánica solo estimula los sentidos al max.. Yo fume el moño rojo de la selva amazónica cercana al Cusco y Machu Pichu desde entonces lo use para ir a conciertos y mirar exposiciones de arte. Y lo vendí tambien a los turistas que visitan Machu Pichu, para eso vienen (luego los lleve a Quillabamba, el paraíso de los turistas). La marihuana debe ser criada bajo el Sol, es cuando le nace la flor roja en el top. Un pitillo de 2-3 hojas vasta para volar por 2 o 3 horas y su efecto no es inmediato ni crashing. Uno lo puede fumar en casa e ir luego al concierto o al museo de arte. La Marih NO es un alucinógeno, no altera los sentidos, se puede manejar carro con ella, aunque no es recomendable hacerlo. El alucinógeno que fuman los chamanes viene de la corteza del “palo santo” un árbol lleno de hormigas al que hay que saberlo tajear. Ese “Te” si altera los sentidos, pero no mata a nadie tampoco. Lo bebí cuando un Chaman de la aldea Ashaninka le rescato el alma que se le fue a mi amigo cuando ayudo a entrar logs a la cabaña por temor al lluvion que venía. Sin darse cuenta levanto una culebra no venenosa que se protegia dentro esos logs. En la noche mi amigo no podía dormir.. se despertaba gritando CULEBRA. Tuvimos que llamar al Chaman que nos hizo danzar con él para rescatarle el alma. Fue entonces que bebi el alucinógeno. A mi amigo le dio otra bebida que lo dejo dormido como bebe mientras nosotros danzábamos a su alrededor.  Masticar la hoja de coca tampoco mata a nadie, restaura energía y mata el hambre, para eso la mastican o chakchan los quechuas y nativos. Su sabor no es agradable pero hoy se vende en NY el mate o te de coca, que es muy popular en Cusco y en todo Latino América.  Ese mate elimina el mal sabor del masticado y tiene efecto diría lejano a la coca que se mastica; efecto cercano, dicen los enamorados. Pero para el amor yo prefiero el “te” de un ichu llamado * que es el alimento favorito de las alpacas y es además el ingrediente básico del *. Su efecto es también suave como la marihuana y sin sabor alguno. Se de 1 COL que se hizo millonario en Francia vendiendo moño rojo, así como la empresa Pfizer lo logró con el *.  La marih estimula el amor y si es de selva: eleva el placer hedonista. Los que le agregan crack son los que asesinan los beneficios de marih y los que matan neuronas de gente desinformada ]]
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P&G unveiled that the cost of Pampers will go up by an average of 4%; Other paper staples, such as Bounty, Charmin and Puffs will see 5% price increases on average.
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“It’s a constitutional right to bear arms and when you are asking the court to deprive somebody of that right we need to make sure we are making good decisions, right decisions and the circumstances warrant it...”
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo

Contradiction in Washington: Trump, Pompeo at odds over preconditions for talks with Iran

SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
US  inside  GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


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Too bad.. este no leyo el art de Bernanke above.. los QEs son el nicho donde ira la Econ USA
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SIGAR: Trump Strategy to Exploit Afghan Minerals Fails  después de los bomb-USA.. imposible
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Se debe negoc 1ro con RU, luego Chi y luego Iran .. No ponerse la botas 1ro y luego las medias
Es lo que hace el US.. la estrategia con Iran la negocio ya con Israel.. Lo inverso huele “stinky” 
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Trump: Iran May Speak With US 'Pretty Soon'  Iran  MUST speak.. huele a orden. Is May a bluff?
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El ex-asesor de Trump devino millonario.. Se acercan las elecciones.. todo fraude vale?
RELATED:
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Que contradictoria es la política de Trump.. será cierto que todo es “false flag”?  Veremos..
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Son estos lo que tienen el Gob de Trump bajo la guillotina? Como se la puede colocar a ellos?
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RT SHOWS

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Keiser Report   Episode 1260  When so many rich people think the apocalypse is coming and they are preparing for it with doomsday shelters, Jeff Bezos is  gaining $275 million per day
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am NEW FOCUS: alternat to neo-fascist regimes, breaks to HR, Peace & support to US-terrorism 


                Ahed Tamimi: la furia de la libertad  Leandro Albani
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ECON    Irán en el ruedo económico   Hedelberto López
                 Paradojas del trabajo digital y las utopías de Marx  Ignacio Muro
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Áfric      colonialis francés: De la isla virgen al intent de cirugía social  Saïd B
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FEM       Justicia Patriarcal (II):  Venganza judicial  Lidia Falcón
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                Juliana Morell, la catalana que se doctoró a los 14 años  Dani D
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                -Las colillas, primera fuente de basura mundial  Buen titulo
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ALC        Guatem: defender derech en un Estado criminal Ollantay Itzamná
                -Leyes y amenazas cercan libertad de expres en Hondur Thelma M
                -Corrupc en Peru síntoma de degrad de la clase dominante  RG
                ARG: miliitarizar seguridad int: El gato con botas   H Verbitsky
                ARG: -Los parecidos entre Trump y Macri  Roberto Silva
                BRA: mortalid infant aumenta por 1ra vez desde 1990 Andrés Alsina

                Chile:
MOV FEM se potencia mientras Iglesia Catól se desmorona LL
                Chile: Hijo de "Tati":  Las caras de La Moneda  Nelson Aquiles
                COL: -¿Repite Uribe la saga de Fujimori?  Horacio Duque
                Cuba: -El proceso de refor de la Constitución en Cuba  Mylai Burgos
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USA       -Ridículos, amén de ignorantes   Rodolfo Bueno
                --El recurso del terror: dar alas a los racistas  Ilka Oliva 
                --"Money, money, money"  Jorge Majfud
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                Colombia Uribe y la Inocencia que va del Honor al Horror  MHRD           
                USA: La criminalización de niños migrantes  Guillermo Castillo  
                US-UE: Trump descarta a Europa como aliado  Manuel E. Yepe  
                US, Am Lat y Bolivia: Recursos Natur, libre merc y mar LF GG
                China-US La disputa ideológica por la hegem global  Rdo Orozco 
                Uruguay Derechas contra los derechos  Nicolás Centurión
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CONTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics


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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


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DEMOCRACY NOW
Focus on Trump policies & the Econ & Pol crisis he creates


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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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