SAT
JULY 28 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
"We’re
perhaps reaching an inflection point, and the question becomes how big can
these companies grow."
[[
More money from the thin air can
recycle the fake economy.. but.. what if we’re lying? ]]
Armed with that information alone, one would think that the
S&P has soared in the 2 or so weeks since the banks kicked off Q2 earnings
season. Only that's not the case, and as the chart below shows, the S&P has barely budged
in the time half the S&P has reported record earnings.
See Chart:
How come? The answer is
simple - tech names, and specifically investor disappointment with outlooks
beyond the current quarter, or as Bloomberg puts it, "investors are asking
too much." Consider the following:
- Netflix plunged even though its net income rose 600%.
- Facebook just suffered the biggest drop in the history of US stocks, wiping out nearly $150BN in value, even though its revenue grew 42%.
- Intel tumbled nearly 10%, wiping out $20 billion wiped from its value, even as it beat all estimates.
- Twitter dropped more than 20% its biggest crash since 2014, despite beating on the top and bottom line.
While there are more examples, the message is simple: merely
beating estimates is no longer enough. While all but one of the 36 tech firms that have
reported results exceeded analyst estimates, over the next five
days their stocks were down an average 3.5%. That
compares with a gain of 0.9 percent for all S&P 500 stocks, according to
Bloomberg calculations..
See Chart:
Perhaps the biggest driver behind investor disappointment is
that so far at least, tech names have generally failed to impress in their
pivot from staggering growth to a more mature phase, with "new
responsibilities and expectations."
But.. Some may counter that much of the upside was already
priced in: after all recall that just four
tech stocks, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Netflix,
were responsible for 84% of the upside in the market in the first half of 2018.
See exhibit below:
Meanwhile, with speculation that the next recession is at
most 18 months away, traders are concerned that there
is little chance these companies will have the required runway to reach their
full potential: consider that at 19x forecast earnings, techs are
trading at a 10% premium to the S&P 500: the widest since 2009.
Worse, this premium is no longer
warranted. In fact, Q3 will mark the first time since 2014 that growth in technology earnings
will trail the rest of the market:
"computer and software makers will boost profits by 18 percent between
July and September, compared with 21 percent in the S&P 500."
See Chart:
But the worst news for investors is that for techs the period of unprecedented earnings growth-driven
outperformance is almost over: starting this quarter, tech profit growth will be in line with the
market over the next two years, if not slower - a major change from the last 15
quarters, when their rate of expansions exceeded the S&P 500’s by an
average 6.5%. Which, for a global stock market that
has only outperformed
thanks to tech...
See Chart:
.. IS THE WORST POSSIBLE NEWS.
….
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Steal the gold of RU-Chi? We can’t have such opium dream ..Too
late: it is on ISR bunkers.. if they touched they blow
their whole State-Nation.. Ru-Ch don’t need to blow US stealers over there.
RELATED 1
"It is hard to see any
policy alternative, other than just letting the whole system crash. Therefore, we can expect quantitative easing
to return with a vengeance, not only to recapitalise the banks, but to cover
escalating government deficits."
…
RELATED 2
“Let’s put it this way, everyone taking a vacation:
they can’t be without their devices.”
Before the shit
really hit the fan this week as Techs crashed, CFTC
data (reported as of Tuesday close) showed speculators piling increasingly into the
most-crowded trades as if nothing will ever change.
The two
most extreme positioning situations are in Gold and US Treasuries as there has never been more hedge fund shorts in the precious metal
- and it is accelerating dramatically...
See Chart:
And never been more aggregate speculative short positions across the Treasury
complex in history...
See Chart:
Specifically, 10Y Treasury shorts
are exploding higher.
See Chart:
Additionally, as China's offshore
Yuan collapses, traders are adding
to their net long USDollar positions - but for now, the dollar
refuses to follow their positioning...
See Chart:
And finally, specs added further to their renewed belief
in the old 'sell vol' trade being back...
See Chart:
As if February never happened.
Despite the fact that we are heading
into the market's most seasonally volatile time of year...
See Chart:
Additionally, Goldman
has warned that depleted
liquidity makes the market prone to crises.
“You have a lot of geopolitical events that
could happen this summer,” said Barbara Reinhard, head of asset allocation at the $227
billion AUM Voya Asset Management.
“August ones are particularly alarming --
that’s when volumes are thin and people are on vacation.”
Risk-off sentiment could rapidly
snowball alongside the specter of higher borrowing costs. Investors may
struggle to offload positions, from corporate bonds to emerging-market assets, in the second-lowest equity volume month of the year,
as Reinhard concluded:
“Let’s put it this way, everyone taking a
vacation: they can’t be without their devices.”
…
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
"This could be the very
beginning of a turning point." - Robert Shiller
And as the following chart of FHFA
home prices, the recent home price plateau is starting to turn lower:
See Chart:
See more charts at:
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"Yet many farmers don’t
want Trump’s solution. They don’t want to be put
on welfare. They know that nothing saps a man’s industry and ingenuity like getting things for free
at the expense of others..."
READ this
This week, for example, President Trump unveiled a novel
solution to a consequence of his trade tariff policies. Zero
Hedge offers the particulars:
“Facing the brunt of President Trump’s trade war with China,
which threatens some $34 billion of US products and agriculture with
duties, the White House has announced a $12 billion ‘short-term’ stimulus plan
to help US farmers hurt by China’s ‘illegal’ retaliatory tariffs. The
package, as expected, will consist of direct payments, food purchases and trade
development – under a program already authorized under the Commodity Credit
Corp act, which means Congressional approval is not required. Further
details on the program will come by Labor Day, according to USDA Secretary
Sonny Perdue and top officials.”
Remember, these trade tariff policies are a solution to the perceived
trade deficit problem. Of course, the massive trade deficit is a
consequence of fiat money, and the unlimited issuance of debt that fiat money
allows. Fiat money is the government’s solution to the rigor and
discipline of a gold standard. With each iteration of solutions to
solutions, the effects, which are not immediately seen,
become greater.
Since April, the
yuan has fallen by almost 8 percent against the dollar.
Is this merely a coincidence? Or is it Xi’s solution to Trump’s trade
war?
See Chart:
Certainly, the answers will be revealed in good time. Regardless, Trump’s and Xi’s solutions, which
include mud wrestling between friends, promise to deliver all the makings of a
major economic fiasco.
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
“I have near zero
optimism because I think it is going to be very messy... it’sgoing to be a historic catastrophe." See
Charts
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The future of the Swedish population isbleak...
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"If the EU fails to define itself for a world that is fundamentally different from
that of ten years ago, it probably
will not survive as a meaningful institution..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
US inside GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
RUSSIAN AIR FORCE IN SYRIA DESTROYS UAV
LAUNCHED FROM TERRITORY CONTROLLED BY TERRORISTS This was expected and it will become
worse
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Key strategic arms won’t be revealed.. they are not stupid
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Just do the best to return him to his country.. Cut the
chances of sending him to US.
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am NEW FOCUS: alternat to neo-fascist regimes, breaks to
HR, Peace & support to US-terrorism
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La única solución es girar a la izquierda, emprender nuevo ciclo REVOL
mediante reformas políticas radicales que empoderan a la clase trabajadora, al
campesinado, a las mujeres y a los pueblos originarios, y restablecer un Estado
laico, democrático, socialista y popular
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RT reporta Estados “Unidos” con Familias rotas?
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CONTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Nozomi
Hayase Why
Americans Must Defend the Freedom of Julian Assange
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Michael
Hudson – Sh-Peries ARG’s
New $50 Billion IMF Loan is Designed to Replay Its 2001 Crisis
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Paul
Fitzgerald - Elizabeth Gould The
Grand Illusion of Imperial Power
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Manuel
E. Yepe Trump
and the Military-Industrial Complex
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John W. Whitehead Trump
is a Tool of the Deep State Not a Victim
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Yves
Engler The
Fairy Tale About Capitalism
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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