JUN
30 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
With the
"smart" money exiting the stock market in droves, yield curves
collapsing, and continued extreme speculative positioning, the possibility of a
crash is rising. Here are the cheapest way to hedge against a market shock.
With the "smart" money (as defined by Don Hays)
exiting the stock market in droves, yield curves
collapsing (now with extra help from a "Twisting"
ECB), extreme speculative positioning in bonds, and
a dramatically diverging economic reality from market narratives, the
possibility of a crash - Fed triggered or not - is rising. Do 'they'
know something the "dumb money" does not?
See Chart:
And with everyone still the same
side of the rates boat...
See Chart:
... while Bank
of America is warning that the current market feels ominously similar
to that right before the 1998 Asia Crisis and LTCM blow up...
See Chart:
... the question is - what's the cheapest way to hedge against a
crash scenario?
Bank of America's Jason Galazidis has some answers for
traders looking for some protection. The screen below
shows that the hedges, ranked by the average, which are most underpricing historical drawdowns are Gold
calls, EUR 10y receivers and TLT (US 20y+ Treasury) calls:
See Chart:
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“...it is doubtful if
electricity will ever be [widely] used” because it was too expensive to
generate... - 1879
See Chart:
The 10% surge is a notable outlier
after weeks of constant downward pressure, but we note it's already fading
modestly along with the rest of cryptos.
See Chart:
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Wall Street
is no different from any other American industry. Growth and success will
belong to the disruptors rather than incumbents...
Read this :
There are
many causes for this downward slide, and each carries a well-worn
narrative. A few standouts:
- Declining asset management fees: Passive investing has seriously dented the popularity of active management, which has admittedly struggled to consistently outperform in the last 20 years of equity market volatility.
- Lower sell side research margins: Wall Street analysts were hurt by Reg FD and AC, which seriously limited their ability to get a non-public (but once legal) investment edge and deliver that to clients for a premium price.
- Lower hedge fund profitability: Low barriers to entry allowed too many hedge fund startups, compressing fees for even truly talented managers.
- Lower equity trading profits: Decimalization, market fragmentation, higher technology costs and long stretches of central bank-driven volatility suppression have killed desk profitability.
Now,
equities are an optimist’s game, and there’s no shortage of hopeful narratives
that argue we’re at a bottom for many of these trends. The Fed is cutting back on its
balance sheet, so volatility will return and lift trading profitability. The
next bear market will see investors come back to active management. Asset allocators are more selective now, so the best hedge
funds will regain pricing power.
We prefer
to consider the decline of the US equity business writ large (both buyside and
sellside) through a different lens: long term US equity returns. These,
after all, are what pay for the money management, trading, and research
services Wall Street has to offer. It is a lot easier to justify higher fees if
returns are strong. And essentially impossible to pass along most costs when
they are not.
Here are
the trailing 20-year compounded average returns for the S&P 500 every 5
years since 1980, underlying data courtesy of NYU Professor Aswath Damodaran:
- 1980: 8.3% 20-year trailing nominal returns
- 1985: 8.6%
- 1990: 11.1%
- 1995: 14.5%
- 2000: 15.5%
- 2005: 11.9%
- 2010: 9.1%
- 2015: 8.1%
- 2017: 7.1%
This data
puts trends in the health of the US equity business in a different light than
the narratives we outlined earlier. Equity
owners – the ones that actually pay for services like money management,
research and trading – have scaled their expenses based on their realized
returns.
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"On what plane of reality is it possible thattwo of the world’s most morally bankrupt
corporations, Bayer and Monsanto, can be permitted to join
forces to control about
one-quarter of the world’s food supply. "
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
"To qualify for
low-income housing in San Francisco County or the nearby San Mateo
and Marin counties, a four-person householdcan make as much as $117,400 a year."
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"The meeting that the
Deep State strived to make impossible with fabricated 'Russiagate'
assertions and an orchestrated 'investigation' by Mueller has now been set in place by no less than
Deep State neocon operative John Bolton. "
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"There’s
nothing like a wounded animal."
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US-WW ISSUES (World & War): M-East .. plus
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
On Sunday,
Mexico will be the latest domino to fall to the global anti-establishment wave,
and will elect its first "leftist populist" president in a generation
with potentially far-reaching consequences for the country’s economy, trade,
crime fighting and US relations.
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"There is no way North Korea will
ever give up its nuclear weapons - ever..."
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The
Pentagon is evaluating the costs
of transferring or withdrawing troops from Germany, where the United
States has its biggest contingent outside the country, The Washington Post
reported on Friday, but the White House denied.
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"We ultimately think that
the PBoC will safeguard the 6.70 level in USD/CNY, as it would otherwise
risk spurring another round of massive capital outflows as was seen after the
devaluation in the autumn of 2016..."
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"The decisions taken
by the United States on this issue are not binding for us. Of
course, we will follow the United Nations on its decision. Other than
this, we will only follow our own
national interests."
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"Just
spoke to King Salman of Saudi Arabia and ... I am asking that Saudi Arabia
increase oil production, maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels, to make up the
difference...Prices to high! He has agreed"
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
US inside GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..News
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to
break with Empire:
PAL Razan, enfermera voluntaria asesinada
por los sionistas
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USA Pence paseó por América Latina su
prepotencia imperial
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-utopía? Transformac socio-ecológ
de Am Lat Vivianne Ventura
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Ecuad -Kintto Lucas: 2 temas busca
imponer USA: Ados milit y Comer libre "
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Keiser Report "El dólar ya no es tan
importante"
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars: its profiteers US-NATO
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..
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