Tue
JUL 24 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
The US Economic
debacle today
And like that, the bond vigilantes were
gone...
Chinese
stocks jumped happily celebrating China's new easing plan...
See Chart:
The Dow and S&P managed gains,
Nasdaq gave up all its GOOGL gains, and Small Caps and Trannies tumbled...
See Chart:
GOOGL's big beat prompted a bid in
all the FANG stocks and sent Nasdaq futs soaring, but while Nasdaq spoiked a
little more at the cash open, it was sold pretty much all day...
See Chart:
FANG stocks spiked above pre-NFLX
levels (on GOOGL), but faded the rest of the day...
See Chart:
Nasdaq hit an intraday record high
before tumbling back into the red...
See Chart:
Tesla stock price started
aggressively catching down to it lagging bond price (and its newly minted
CDS)...
See Chart:
The long-end outperformed the
short-end but all the moves were very marginal... the yield curve flattened
modestly...
See Chart:
The Bloomberg Dollar Index leaked
lower on the day...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-07-24_12-40-05.jpg?itok=b2o7bkT-
Finally, we thought some might be
interested to know that it now costs $2mm to insure $10mm of Tesla bonds
against default...
See Chart:
….
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[[
YES double the minimum salary, cancel students debt n cut Pharma
monopolies ]]
The big
immediate risk to US fixed income is a much bigger bear steepener in global
rates, which could lead to large outflows,
disorderly conditions and much wider credit spreads...
As BofA notes, all it took was speculation in the press that the BOJ is contemplating
policy adjustments to engineer higher
interest rates in the back end of the JGB curve (in order to aid financial
institutions), and global bond yields erupted higher (and bond futures
prices lower in Japan, Germany, and US).
See Chart:
BofA points out that it also shows that foreign central banks exert
material influence on the back end of the US rates curve (along with the Fed, the pension reallocation trade,
etc.).
[[ Rid
off Ruso-fobia & accept the fact that Russia is in much better shape than
US in front of global recession.. Rise salaries and get the people with you..
The financed “financiers” should adjust to real capitalistgame.. those who can’t
COMPETE & merge.. get out of the game ]]
…
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[[
GOOD… golazo de media
cancha.. better tan penalties ]]
Facing the
brunt of President Trump's trade war with China, which threatens some
$34 billion of US products and agriculture with duties, the White House has announced a $12 billion
"short-term" stimulus plan to help US farmers hurt by China's
"illegal" retaliatory tariffs.
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[[ This could be avoided.. n reversed. In the Middle of
1930 Econ recession FDR got re-elected .. Don’t pay attention to those
who use to get free money from the Fed n now are clapping collision. IntruduceTobin Tax to all games in Wall Street & Chicago
market.. Get the people!. Don’t feed “financiers” gluttony. To get the people
you have to flame 2 flags: A- PEACE=dismantle of
Nukes. B- Dismantle obsolete neoliberal policies.
If you don’ favor Peace and agreed with financial n political frauds of billionaires
.. then QUIT & CALL FOR NEW ELECTIONS. If
DEMs wants chaos, they will get it: make the nation impossible to elect them. As
Presid just announce new set of rules for democratic election (neither
super-packs & super-delegates. C-SPAN for polit debates & introduce 3rd
option with proportional distrib of power. Buying elections must be declared a
crime against Democ & severely penalized) Don’t submit it to debate in
Congress. Just announce it. Use FDR style to change Pol in US ]]
…
Here the art The
Fed is on Collision Course
"Is the Trump economic
boom a mirage? The data say yes, but the Fed models say no. The Fed has a long track record of sticking
to its model-based approach and missing
major turns in the U.S. economy..."
Current Fed policy will push the U.S. economy to the brink of recession later
this year. When that happens, the Fed will have to reverse course and ease
monetary policy. This will send the dollar crashing while gold and the euro
soar.
Those economic cheerleaders recite the stimulative effects
of the Trump tax cuts and point to the Atlanta Fed forecast that second-quarter
GDP will be 3.9% (as of the July 11 update).
The Atlanta Fed estimate of 3.9% is in line with forecasts
from National Economic Council head Larry Kudlow, Art Laffer (proponent of the
eponymous Laffer curve), Steve Moore and others that say Trump’s programs will
produce persistent trend growth of 3–4% or higher.
There’s one problem with the happy talk about 3–4%
growth. We’ve seen this movie before.
Chart 1
below illustrates the fact that any signs of trend growth are strictly
temporary (basically moving growth
from one quarter to another through inventory and accounting quirks) and are
quickly followed by weaker growth. In the first quarter of 2015, growth was
3.2%, but by the fourth quarter that year growth had fallen to a near-recession
level of 0.5%.
In the third quarter of 2016 growth
was 2.8%, but it fell quickly to 1.2% by the first quarter of 2017. In the
third quarter of 2017 growth was 3.2% but then returned to 2.0% by the first
quarter of 2018, about the average for the past nine years.
See Chart:
This
pattern of temporarily strong growth followed by weak growth has been
characteristic of the entire recovery that began in June 2009 and entered its
10th year last month. In fact, we’ve seen even more extreme reversals in the
recent past.
So this expansion
has been extraordinarily long — 30% longer than average — indicating that a recession should be expected sooner rather than later.
In short, growth under Trump looks a lot like growth under Obama, with
no reason to expect that to change anytime soon. In fact, the head winds caused
by the strong dollar, the trade wars and out-of-control deficit spending may
slow the economy and bring future growth down below the average of the Obama
years.
The Fed is explicitly on a path of raising interest rates by
0.25% every March, June, September and December like clockwork unless one of
three “pause” factors appears (disorderly markets, weak job creation or
disinflation).
Since none
of the pause factors are apparent now, the Fed should be expected to raise
rates in September and December 2018 and beyond.
See Chart:
My estimate, and
that of others, is that this balance sheet reduction
policy is equivalent to four 0.25% rate hikes per year on top of the four
already planned. The combined effect is the same as the Fed raising rates 2%
per year off a near-zero rate base as recently as December 2015.
Bearing in mind that monetary policy works with a
12–18-month lag, this extraordinary tightening policy in a weak economy is almost
certainly a recipe for a recession.
Why is the Fed tightening if the economy is
fundamentally weak and the probability of a recession is so high?
There are two
reasons.
The first is that the Fed is using badly flawed models including the
Phillips curve and a stochastic equilibrium macro model called FRB/US (or
“Ferbus”). These models do not
correspond to reality, but the Fed follows them anyway, which is why the Fed
has never accurately forecasted a recession in its history.
The second reason is that the Fed knows a recession will happen sooner
rather than later and is
desperate to acquire some dry powder (in the form of higher rates and a reduced
balance sheet) so it can deploy rate cuts and QE when the time comes. The
problem, of course, is that by pursuing these policies, the Fed will cause the
recession it is preparing to cure.
The single
most important factor in my analysis is that when the Fed realizes its mistake
of tightening into economic weakness, it will have to turn on a dime and shift
to an easing policy. Easing will
come first through forward guidance and pauses in the rate hike tempo, then
possibly actual rate cuts back to zero and finally reversing their balance
sheet reductions by expanding the balance sheet through QE4 if needed.
When that happens, the dollar will crash and alternative
currencies such as gold, silver and the euro will soar.
Jay Powell seems determined to continue rate
hikes on an aggressive path and possibly to accelerate the hikes. But he might
be in for a severe case of whiplash when he has to make a hard pivot to easing.
But by then, the damage will have been done.
….
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After last week's surprise crude
build, expectations were for a draw once again and API delivered with a bigger
than expected draw of 3.16mm barrels, which sent WTI/RBOB prices higher.
See Chart:
See one more chart at
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-24/wtirbob-extend-gains-after-bigger-expected-crude-draw
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
"If the economy weakens substantially or the stock market
dives, both of which may happen
given Trump's tariff policy and Fed rate hikes, it is not inconceivable
for Democrats to take the Senate."
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Funny n stupid note from the Dems… Apply this sentence to pedophile
Hillary: 1 more to be executed
"Ethel and Julius Rosenberg were executed on a basis of far less evidence than there is on
Trump"
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[[ So, is gona be worse since we’re in the path
to 2bd great depression ]]
"We’ve never seen it like
this..."
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
"Beijing
must really be worried about the macro backdrop to have engaged in this
double-barreled fiscal and monetary policy easing" - David
Rosenberg
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"We
are seeing very large z-score reversals of YTD trends across the “factor”
universe."
Here are the
details of what McElligott observed during the trading day, which he believes may have been catalyzed by the surprising
announcement of Chinese fiscal easing that
hit overnight:
The reversals in questions are many — most obviously a significant “into Value, out
of Growth” rebalancing dynamic today (chart below with proxy
factors). As such, “1Y Momentum” is
seeing its largest drawdown in a month. Joining “Value” in classic
“late-cycle” fashion is “Quality,” also sharply reversing the YTD trend.
See Chart:
I continue to
believe in the larger sense, this is due to the Fed’s
“QE to QT” impact as we transition from the late-cycle “Cyclical Melt-Up” stage
into the “Financial Conditions Tightening Tantrum” phase—and thus my
recent “downshift” view—ESPECIALLY as the
“Value” and “Quality” slant is such a “late-cycle” positioning stance.
…
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
US inside GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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RT SHOWS
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Keiser
Report Episode
1257 Max and Stacy discuss a
claim, by the IMF’s former guy in Russia, that there “will never be a
debt crisis”. In the second half, Max interviews banker, Chris
Whalen, about Trump’s trade war, tax cuts and economic policies.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am NEW FOCUS: alternat to neo-fascist regimes, breaks to
HR, Peace & support to US-terrorism
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-Los incas de Peru usaron paneles para lo mismo
y pa irrigar andenes
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Hasta
aquí. Ortega fue Rev y luego se une a Igles-retar por amor a R
A
los Hnos Cardenal si se perdonó que se arrodillen al Papa. Otro
dirigente
de la Rev Sand tuvo que salir de Nic para afirm indep ideo
Teol
de la Lib no pudo liber ideol a Nicar como si se hizo en Ch-Peru
En Nic la poli con taras
ideol del pasado sigue vigente. Si se quiere
evaluar su mand se tiene
que comp pasad y pres y comp con otrs p
En cualquier caso hoy se
tiene que respetar su mando hasta el final
No importa si se es de
ultra-der o ultra-iz. La Dem empie y Ter en El
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Expansión
de mercado con Coop auto-gestivas: lo mej del Social
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Por
María Sol Borja.. Maria, a los vecinos del Sur nos afectó que Gob de Ecuad cortase internet a J Assange. Hoy lo van a poner en manos del UK y estos en manos de la CIA. Es tortura y trato inhumano lo que le espera a J Assange. Ecuad pudo haber pedido que lo transfieran a su país y no lo hicieron.. Ahora Ecuad tendrá que compartir complic en posib crimen de lesa humanidad Es muy posible que millonarios de Pdos Dem y Rep paguen mercenarios para asesinarlo. J A es el más grande vocero de la Lib de prensa a nivel mundial. Snowden escapo. Con JA se ensañar
María Sol Borja.. Maria, a los vecinos del Sur nos afectó que Gob de Ecuad cortase internet a J Assange. Hoy lo van a poner en manos del UK y estos en manos de la CIA. Es tortura y trato inhumano lo que le espera a J Assange. Ecuad pudo haber pedido que lo transfieran a su país y no lo hicieron.. Ahora Ecuad tendrá que compartir complic en posib crimen de lesa humanidad Es muy posible que millonarios de Pdos Dem y Rep paguen mercenarios para asesinarlo. J A es el más grande vocero de la Lib de prensa a nivel mundial. Snowden escapo. Con JA se ensañar
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A este asesino de los nazis lo
volaron al tope de un edificio.
Esta es la suerte que les espera
a neo-fascistas si estala el WW3
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Asesinatos: ¿A qué precio? Global Witness
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
Trump Regime Anti-Iran Rage By Stephen Lendman Continue
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The Karma Of ‘Blowback’ By Philip Farruggio Continue
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The All-Pervasive Military/Security Complex Must
read - By Paul Craig Roberts
Continue
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When Worse Is The Enemy Of Bad By Paul Edwards Continue It happens to Hillary-Trump in Elec
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Reflections on Media Gone Russia-Wild By Paul Street Continue
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Trump - The De-Globalizer? By Peter Koenig Continue
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Noam Chomsky on Fascism, Showmanship and
Democrats’ Hypocrisy in the Trump Era
By C.J. Polychroniou Continue
By C.J. Polychroniou Continue
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What Should “We” Do about Julian Assange? By Kim Petersen Continue
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CONTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Sheldon Richman Trump
and Putin: How About Getting Rid of Your Nukes?
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Kevin Zeese Violent
Coup Fail in Nicaragua
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Focus on Trump policies & the Econ & Pol crisis he
creates
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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