Mon JUL 16 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
"There’s going to be a
train wreck here. Which train will go off which track is unclear,
but something will. And we’re
all going to feel it."
Off the
Tracks
Talking about global debt requires that we consider almost
incomprehensibly large numbers. Our minds can’t process their enormity. How
much is a trillion dollars, really? But understanding this peril forces us to
try.
Earlier in this series, I shared a 2015 McKinsey chart that
summed up global debt totals. They pegged it at $199 trillion as of Q2 2014.
Note that the debt grew faster than global GDP. Everything I see suggests it
will go higher at an ever-increasing rate.
See Chart:
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
Last month, McKinsey published a very useful online tool
for visualizing
global debt, based on Q2 2017 data. It shows a total of $169T, which is
less than McKinsey said in 2014. Is debt shrinking? No. The new tool excludes
the Financial debt category, which was $45T three years earlier. A separate
Institute for International Finance report said financial debt was $59T at the
end of 2017. These aren’t quite comparable numbers, but in the (very big)
ballpark range we can estimate total debt was somewhere between $225T (per
McKinsey) and $238T (per IIF) in mid-2017. (IIF’s latest update last week says
it is now $247T).
See Chart: Dynamics of Debt
On the other hand,
governments also have massive “unfunded liabilities” that don’t show in the
numbers above. So, they aren’t in a great position, either.
Bottom line: There’s going to be a train wreck
here. Which train will go off which track is unclear, but something will.
And we’re all going to feel it.
Woes to
Come
We went on to talk about the insanity of yield-hungry investors practically throwing cash at
borrowers while demanding little in return. I also showed how this is
not simply a junk-rated company problem, since almost half of investment-grade
companies are rated BBB and could easily slip to junk status in a downturn.
See Chart:
Growing
Leverage
The week after we turned to Europe in The
Italian Trigger. Unfortunately, Italy isn’t Europe’s only problem.
The big Kahuna is Germany, which spent years offering generous vendor financing
to the rest of the continent to entice the purchase of German goods. The result: a giant trade surplus for Germany and giant,
unpayable debts for those who bought German goods.
The next installment, Debt
Clock Ticking, was a bit philosophical. I talked about debt letting
you bring the future into the present, buying things you couldn’t afford if you
had to pay for them now. But the entire world went into debt for the equivalent
of tropical vacations and, having now enjoyed them, realizes it must pay the
bill. The resources to do so do not yet exist. So, in
the time-honored tradition of lenders everywhere, we extend and pretend. But
with our ability to pretend almost gone, we’re heading to the Great Reset.
See Chart:
Pension
Problems
The last three letters in the series got personal for many
readers as I talked about pension debt. In The
Pension Train Has No Seat Belts, we looked at the demographic challenge
facing US pension funds, mainly state and local government plans but also some
private ones. We are asking a shrinking group of
working-age people to support a growing number of retirees and that’s just not
going to work.
See Chart:
Source: Peter G. Peterson Foundation
The
promises employers made to workers are a kind of debt. They’re the borrowers, workers are
the lenders… and unlike in 2008, this time it will be lenders who get hurt the
most. A new report by the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) shows
the unfunded liabilities of state and local pension plans jumped $433 billion
in the last year to more than $6 trillion. That is
nearly $50,000 for every household in America
That’s not
all. The federal government also has liabilities for civil service and military
pensions, veteran benefits, some defaulted private pensions via PBGC, and
open-ended guarantees to entities like FDIC, Fannie Mae, and more.
The budget outlook is horrible even without all that, too.
The Congressional Budget Office thinks federal debt will be 200% of GDP by
2048, and that by 2041 it will take all federal tax revenue
just to support Social Security, the various health care programs and pay
interest. That’s before defense or anything else the government does. And
that’s assuming relatively high growth and NO recessions and a rising stock
market forever as we ride off into the sunset.
There
really are only two ways to solve this problem: massive taxes on someone, or a
debt liquidation of some kind. And remember, if you are getting a retirement
pension fund and/or healthcare, your benefits are part of that “debt
liquidation.” Both will be painful. We have pulled forward our spending and
must eventually pay for it. The time is coming. Please don’t shoot the
messenger.
Let’s summarize. Global debt
is over $225 trillion. By the beginning of the next decade it could be over
$300 trillion. Global government unfunded liabilities are easily in the
$100-trillion range today and could easily double by the end of the next
decade. Debt service, pensions, and healthcare will take 20-25% of GDP in many
countries (more in some of Europe).
Your mileage may and will vary by country. In some, there
will be inflation and in others, deflation. We will be thinking the unthinkable
and choosing policies that seem insane to even mention today. But then, think
about what Japan is doing. And the ECB. Add in automation and the loss of
hundreds of millions of jobs in the OECD countries. Then think about what will
happen in the emerging economies.
But at the
same time, imagine all the new companies being built and fortunes made. The
opportunities. The situation, as Doug Casey once quipped, “Is hopeless, but not
serious.” Not yet. Not for you and me.
….
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"Yet again we have fooled
ourselves into thinking that the good times will just continue to keep
on rolling, and once again our society
will be in for a very rude awakening when the inevitable crash finally arrives."
[[ This is one of the
progressive REP who may be part of the REVOL DEMOCRATIC FRONT ]]
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" The reality is the
majority of individuals are ill-prepared for an impact event to occur. This
is particularly the case in late-stage bull market cycles where complacency
runs high."
- Part I – “Buy & Hold” Can Be Hazardous To Your Wealth
- Part II – Why Crashes Matter & The Saving Problem
- Part III – Valuations & Forward Returns
- Part IV – The Math Of Loss
- Part V – Choosing The Right Portfolio Benchmark
- Part VI – Should You Invest Like Warren Buffett?
…
The
Problem Of Psychology
During this series so far we have primarily discussed the
more mechanical issues surrounding “investing myths” over the
duration of an individuals investing “life-span.”
Individuals are often told:
“There
has never been a 10 or 20-year period in the market with negative returns.”
As we showed
previously, such is not exactly correct once you account for
inflation.
See Charts:
While “buying and holding” an index will indeed create a positive return over a
long enough holding period, such does not equate to achieving financial
success. But even if “investing your way to wealth” worked
as advertised, then why are the
vast majority of Americans so poorly equipped for retirement?
Every three years, the Federal
Reserve conducts a study of American finances which exposes the lack of
financial wealth for the bottom 90% of households. (Read: The
Bottom 90% & The Failure Of Prosperity)
See Chart:
So, what happened?
- Why aren’t those 401k balances brimming over with wealth?
- Why aren’t those personal E*Trade and Schwab accounts bursting at the seams?
- Why are so many people over the age of 60 still working?
While we previously covered the impact of market cycles, the
importance of limiting losses, the role of starting valuations, and the proper
way to think about benchmarking your portfolio, the two biggest factors which
lead to chronic investor underperformance over time are:
- Lack of capital to invest, and;
- Psychological behaviors
Psychological factors account for
fully 50% of investor shortfalls in the investing process. It is also difficult
to “invest” when the majority of Americans have an inability
to “save.”
See Chart:
Continue reading & don’t forget
this conclusion:
CONCLUSION
In the end, we are just human. Despite the best of our
intentions, it is nearly impossible for an individual to be devoid of the
emotional biases that inevitably lead to poor investment decision making over
time. This is why all great
investors have strict investment disciplines that they follow to reduce the
impact of human emotions.
Take a step back from the media, and Wall Street commentary,
for a moment and make an honest assessment of the financial markets today. Are
valuations at levels that have previously lead to higher rates of future
returns? Are interest rates rising or falling? Are individuals currently
assessing the “possibilities” or the “probabilities” in
the markets?
As individuals, we invest our hard earned “savings” into
a “speculative”environment where we are “betting” on
a future outcome. The reality is the majority of individuals are ill-prepared for an impact
event to occur. This is particularly the case in late-stage
bull market cycles where complacency runs high.
The discussion of why “this
time is not like the last time” is largely irrelevant. Whatever
gains investors garner in the first-half of an investment cycle by chasing
the “bullish thesis” will be almost
entirely wiped out during the second-half. Of course, this is the sad history
of individual investors in the financial markets
…
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
"Where are our military folks?"
[[
They were invited to the finals in Football World Cup .. and they will
come pro-Putin ]]
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So.. now we have the other
truth: RU didn’t stole election to Hillary.. they instead support her
"It might have been legal, the contribution itself
but the way the money was
earned was illegal"
[[ Illegal? Which one is more.. this one or the one gave to
her by Saudis? or is illegal to gave
money to a lady accused of pedophilia by a CIA agent?.. What is or not legal in
a corrupt Elec? It is a FACT the buying of elections
by Big Corp & it is a Fact also the
existence of Super Packs ]]
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[A]bsent, at least so far, is either an
obvious political phenom like former President Barack Obama or an
establishment-backed juggernaut in the mold of Hillary Clinton.
….
1- E Warren must run to Presid &
B Sanders to the VP to finish burying the rotten cadaver of Hillary. We need a
woman in the front of Geo-politics and Geo-Economics. They are leading the Rev
now.
2- They must run as independents: Dems & Rep are
obsolete sewers of US oligarchy. R-Dem is the 3rd option and the
building of a FRONT for Revolution Democratic must be the priority work
now.
3- We should not put the horses
behind the car. We should discuss first a New electoral system with
proportional representations among 3 options: the corrupted Dems-Reps vs the
R-Dem (Rev Democ). The Progressive sector of Rep may join the FRONT for Revolution Democratic . No super-pack, no super delegates
not buying in any way. Political debates must use CSPAN to avoid buying
Election.
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"... the enforcement of the FAST Act shows that you’re not even really a citizen. You’re just
renting your citizenship from the government."
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
Which one? BOTH of them. IMF is an instr of big Bankers & Anarch because no
clear Strat & Tact
"...fragile states such as
Haiti are extremely vulnerable to destabilization whenever they’re
pressed into so-called 'structural
reforms' by the IMF..."
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"...Trump's press performance in Helsinki rises to & exceeds the threshold of 'high crimes and
misdemeanors'..."
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Could be
resettled in several countries including Canada, the UK, and Germany
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
US inside GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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RELATED 1
RELATED 2
This was for me the most intelligence presentation of Trump
on geo-politics. Y hope consist next day
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Not only him.. Sen Charles Schumer did it too & worse
was Ben Susse.. pro-WW3. His naked anti RU
phobia show not evidence at all in his argumts.. These Dems are real
neo-fascist supporting Hillary
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am NEW FOCUS: alternat to neo-fascist regimes, breaks to
HR, Peace & support to US-terrorism
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Es la alianza de
neo-fascistas. La que viene: Frente pa Rev
Dem unira a Prog de ambos Pdos
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Para
el desmontaje nuclear con RU, Trump tendría
a afectar grandes corp del complejo Milit-Indust aliados al Pentag y Nato (son
los que lucran fabricando armas y guerras). Dudo que pueda y quiera hacerlo.
Tendria que org al sector anti WW3 de grandes empresarios (están divididos)
pero la mayoría desconfia de él (pero es posible). Tendria además que tener un
aparato de seguridad como la CIA
para frenar al FBI (es también posible). Tendría además que tomar control directo de sectores claves de las FFAA (la
aviación y la marina). Pero su actitud conciliadora con RU puede deberse al
real avance que los RU y Chinos han logrado a nivel bélico, Y puede por tanto ser
solo una táctica de espera para el mejor momento del ataque a RU y China. El
impeachment contra Trump está en camino (Hillary esta detrás de eso y hay
fuerte inversión contra Trump) pero eso ya ocurrió antes con Bill Clinton y este para salirdel lio interno bombardeo
Yugoslavia y Clinton rescato el poder interno. Esta vez puede ocurrir lo mismo.
Trump puede lanzar la guerra mundial (bombardear IRAN y Sirria, lo que ya
empezo a hacerlo su aliado Israel) . Es posible que RU ya dio armas nucleares a
Irán y que juntos borren del mapa a Israel y Saudis.. Si no lo hizo, RU tendría
que bombardear Israel, y si Trump responde RU tendría que bombardear
directamente el US y hasta su rendición.
Lo que también está pensando hacer el Penta y NATO. Quien lance el 1er strike
va a ser respondido de inmediato. Habríamos asi ingresado al WW3 que ya se sabe
no tiene vencedores sino solo destrucción, genocidios y polución total del
mundo.. Trump sabe que esto podría ocurrir y por esto estaría dilatando hasta
estar seguro de destruir RU y China. Por
esto no creo en lo que se ha dicho al público en este mitin. Lo único cierto es
que quien va perdiendo internamente el lio es Trump. Necesita dar un golpe mediático
y sobre todo ajustarle las clavijas a la oposición conservadora de Dems y Reps
con sus propios militantes que si los tiene, y sobre todo purgar de su Gbno a
tipos como Rosenstein . Apoyamos la postura de Trump en el debate de Helsinki
con Putin pero solo porque queremos evitar el WW3 y por la misma razón estamos
totalmente en contra de los fascistas dentro del Partido Democrata. Mi
propuesta es org la 3ra opción, el frente antiguerra (WW3) y org la Revolucion democrática que apunte hacia nuevo
tipo de elecciones y hacia un nuevo sistema de poder. Tendremos que adaptar el
ejemplo dejado por Roosevelt (FDR) en 1935. SI SE PUEDE!
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Entrevista "El Mundial fue una oportunidad
para que la gente conozca lo amigables y educados que son los rusos"
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INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
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Peace Talk Between Nuclear Superpowers
Offends America’s Assholes And Morons
By Caitlin Johnstone Continue
By Caitlin Johnstone Continue
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Clinging to Collusion: Why Evidence Will
Probably Never Be Produced in the Indictments of ‘Russian Agents’ By Joe Lauria Continue
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NATO Vassal States Suffering Stockholm
Syndrome By Robert Billyard Continue
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Summitgate and the Campaign vs. ‘Peace’ By Stephen F. Cohen Continue
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Trump Should Fire Rosenstein Immediately By Paul Craig Roberts
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Palestine Lost By Sheldon Richman Continue
Una paso
atrás para dar 2 adelante. Los PALS deben salir ya para facilitar ataque
anti-zionista
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
US
Message to Assad: “We Will Pull Out of Al-Tanf and the North If Iran Withdraws
From Syria” By
Elijah J. Magnier,
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Focus on Trump policies & the Econ & Pol crisis he
creates
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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