viernes, 6 de abril de 2018

APR 6 18 SIT EC y POL P2



APR  6 18  SIT EC y POL  P2
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ

LA CAIDA  THE CRUSH ..  IS WW3 THE NEXT HIT?

ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

LA CAIDA: From Govt inefficiency to criminal negligence : WW3
TRUMP SAYS 'WE'VE ALREADY LOST THE TRADE WAR' (Reuters) 
So.. what is next in his evil mind?
Read this:
TRUMP SAYS 'WE'VE ALREADY LOST THE TRADE WAR'
Reuters Staff:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday the United States has already lost any trade war, as he defended his proposed tariffs against Chinese goods, saying the move might cause “A LITTLE PAIN”   but the United States will be better off in the long run.

“We’ve already lost the trade war. We don’t have a trade war, we’ve lost the trade war,” Trump said in a radio interview with New York radio show, 77 WABC’s “Bernie & Sid.”

“I’m not saying there won’t be a little pain, but the market has gone up 40 percent, 42 percent so we might lose a little bit of it. But we’re going to have a much stronger country WHEN WE’RE FINISHED.

“So we may take a hit and you know what, ultimately we’re going to be much stronger for it,” Trump said.

Reporting by Doina Chiacu
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CARNAGE CONFIRMED

For the first time since July, the global macro data surprise index has turned negative...
See chart:
CITI global Macro Surprise Index

It was quite a week with massive swings pushing realized volatility to its highest since 2011...
See Chart:
Dow Realized vol

Futures show the equity market swings best as many out of cash session hours
See Chart:

But the cash markets all ended red on the week...
See Chart:

As Gluskin-Sheff's David Rosenberg notes, barely over 3 months into the year and already no fewer than 22 sessions with intra-day moves in the Dow of 400+ points. We had 1 all of last year. The only other time in the past have we seen so many 400 point moves bunched into such a short period -- Oct 2008 to Jan 2009.
The Dow retraced 61.8% Fib of its Wednesday panic-bid... then rebounded back to 50%...
See Chart:

All the FANGMAN stocks ended red on the week...

10Y yields dropped back below 2.80% once again...
See Chart:

Despite weakness today, the dollar index ended the week “higher”...
See Chart:

Crude tumbled on the week as Copper and PMs largely trod water...
See Chart:

Finally, don't forget, there was a Black Friday before Black Monday...
See Chart:


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[[ What type of HIT?  Econ crash or start WW3?  We’re not ready for any of them. The only option is the make a Deal with China-RU.. otherwise WE DON’T HAVE GOVT. Stop lies & criminal negligence ]]

"I’m not saying there won’t be a little pain so we might lose a little of it... we may take a hit, but you know what, ultimately we’re going to be much stronger for it."
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MUST READ: 
[[ Ignorance is not strength .. is irresponsible negligence. If Pres-VP unable to make a Deal with RU-China: resign and call new elections immediately. Meanwhile the Sup Court must set a transit Govt ]]

"We are fully able to inflict as same losses on the US as those on China. The US will have to repay whatever loss and harm it has caused on China with huge economic and political cost... [Americans] must choose whether to support Trump's unscrupulous move or to hold the president accountable."

Not even Kudlow's chalk-strip-suit-wearing smile can save the market this time...
See Chart:

Most Americans have their life linked with China-US trade.
As the tensions escalate, we want to expand the trade war to all Americans so that they have to choose whether to support Trump's unscrupulous move or to hold the president accountable.
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So much for the record 1 million full- and part-time jobs added in February.
SEE Chart:

And a longer-term perspective.
See Chart:
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RELATED:

With strong wage taking place, which sectors were responsible? Not surprisingly, it was all of the high paying jobs while minimum wage industries barely contributed.
See Chart:
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The other story:

The whisper number of big payrolls miss was right, with only 103K jobs added in March, after an upward revised 326K in March. However, virtually all of the miss was due to bad weather as 159K were "unable to work due to bad weather."?
See Chart:
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We Chinese won’t pick fights, but if someone picks a fight, we’ll resolutely meet them head-on. We Chinese always take things seriously; we’ll act as we say."

In the new normal world where The Dow spike 1000 points on no volume following headlines about the worst trade war since the great depression, it should not be surprising that the first reaction following escalating headlines from China is a vertical panic-buying attempt by the machines...
Wrong chart .. but it goes as shown

The post-payrolls disappointment dip was followed by a panic-bid as China's commerce ministry threatens immediate and very detailed retaliation to Trump's $100 billion tariff proposal and said that "under these conditions, the two sides cannot conduct any negotiations."
See Chart:
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The last time offshore yuan was this strongrelative to the US Dollar, China devalued its currency, sending a ripple of broken carry-trades through the financial markets and raising volatility everywhere.
In the 12 hours or so since President Trump announced plans for $100 billion in additional tariffs on China, offshore yuan has tumbled 300 pips...
SEE CHART:
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"There has indeed been a redistribution of wealth in America since the turn of the century. Unfortunately, it has been in the wrong direction as the U.S. has created its own class of royalty and serfdom..."

It is an interesting thing.
Throughout the last four decades there is a direct link between the actions of the Federal Reserve and the eventual economic and market outcomes due to changes in monetary policy. In every case, that outcome has been negative.
See Chart:

While the talking points of the economy being as “strong as an ox” is certainly “media friendly,” The yield curve, as shown below, is telling a different story. While the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury rates has not fallen into negative territory as of yet, they are certainly headed in that direction.
See Chart:
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"They can no longer pretend that they’re not doing the same things as South American banana republics. It’s a pure ‘we just print money to finance government spending,’ which is going to explode..."

After rallying on Friday, stocks tanked, dropping over 450 points. In fact, it was the worst first day of the second quarter since the Great Depression.

According to Schiff’s blog, Schiff Gold, most analysts blamed the plunge on the escalating trade war, but Peter Schiff sees it quite a bit differently. He said it was just another bad day in a bear market. In fact, he said the market could have rallied because the Chinese response wasn’t as bad as it could have been. But when you’re in a bear market, all news is bad news.

The bottom line is Schiff thinks the economy is going to tank (although he isn’t sure how soon that will occur) and the stock market is going to continue its bear runBut the Fed is not going to be able to come to the rescue this time around because of inflation. IF IT DOES TRY TO LAUNCH MORE QE TO BAIL OUT THE STOCK MARKET, IT WILL COMPLETELY TANK THE DOLLAR.

The NATIONAL DEBT IS AN OFTEN OVERLOOKED ASPECT OF THE ECONOMY, but in truth, it will play a big role in an economic collapse and Schiff is sounding the alarms.
And maybe that - among other things - is why STOCKS COLLAPSED BACK DOWN THE LAST TWO DAYS...
SEE CHART:
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SINCE FAILING SYSTEMS ARE INCAPABLE OF STRUCTURAL REFORM, 
COLLAPSE IS THE ONLY WAY FORWARD.

Systems fail for a wide range of reasons, but I'd like to focus on two that are easy to understand but hard to pin down.
1. Systems are accretions of structures and modifications laid down over time.Each layer adds complexity which is viewed at the time as a solution.

In the set of incentives, the "solution" is alwayswe need more money. If only we had another $1 million, $1 billion or $1 trillion, we could fix what's broken.
But increasing the budget can't fix what's broken because it doesn't address the underlying sources of systemic failure.
Those benefiting from the status quo will fight tooth and nail to retain their jobs and benefits, and so deep reform is essentially impossible, as the insiders and constituencies of each layer resist any reform that might diminish their security/income.

As a result, new layers rarely replaces previous layers; the system becomes more and more inefficient and costly as every new layer must find work-arounds and kludgy fixes to function with the legacy layers.  Eventually, the system becomes unaffordable and/or too ineffective to fulfill its mission.

2. The organization is incapable of instituting deep reforms due to organizational sclerosis and leadership who only wants to hear "good news." Organizational sclerosis isn't just the result of insiders clinging to their job; the structure itself has lost the feedback loops and accountability needed to radically restructure a failing organization.

Since failing systems are incapable of structural reform, collapse is the only way forward. Unfortunately collapse doesn't guarantee success; if the rot is deep enough, the wherewithal to assemble a new and more sustainable system may be lacking.
TWO charts of system failure:
CHART 1:
Federal Govt; consumer credits; students loan; Assets, level

CHART 2:
The fruit of Financialization: Income Inequality
Of related interest:
The System Has Failed (February 22, 2016)
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POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist  duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s  full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo

Against Const: Do they fear People Rebelion? Why? .. Recession shock or WW3.. or both

Residents of a town in Illinois were just handed down an unconstitutional decree from their local government, they now have 60 days to give up their guns or be fined up to $1000 per day...
[[ Whatever the cause of Illinois  unlawful move .. people won’t give up guns .. they will hide it. Why  Because registered guns are tiny portion of total amount of guns. So the move will be ineffective ]]
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MORE NEWS
  • China’s Running Out of U.S. Imports to Target (BBG)
  • After Targeting U.S. Farms, China Can Strike America's Shale (BBG)
  • Jobless Rate Expected to Fall to 4% for First Time Since 2000 (WSJ)
  • Trump says 'we've already lost the trade war' (Reuters)
  • Former South Korea Leader Park Sentenced to 24 Years in Jail (BBG)
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo

RELATED:
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I don’t even know how to comment on this. It’s some sort of the theater of absurd. You couldn’t have come up with better fake story?”
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[[ If this sanct plan to divide Rusians.. it won’t work .. RU is more united than ever.. QE to Oleg?  ]]

The US Treasury Department has announced sanctions against seven Russian oligarchs and 17 top Russian government officials as well as 14 entities including private and state-owned firms.
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan


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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars:  its profiteers US-NATO

US goes from trade War to WW3.. this escalation is real

As Beijing flexes its naval war muscle in a South China Sea "show of force", the US is preparing for a naval drill of its ownwith the Pentagon deploying an unprecedented three carrier battle groups to the region.
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3


Russophobia in the New Cold War   By Stephen F. Cohen
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered ..


RELATED 1:
Skripal's Niece Alleges UK 'Must Have Something to Hide' After Being Denied Visa  https://sputniknews.com/europe/201804061063291689-sergei-skripal-niece-no-visa-uk/ 
RELATED 2
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[[ T. is almost gone .. Pence wants to be next President.. Dream on .. both of them must be out ]]
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RELATED 1:
RELATED 2:
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IT was an abuse of infant in Geo-Pol.. that wasn’t fair :  PUTIN playing chess and POTUS checkers
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to break with Empire: 


Or Me   --La aniquilación de Yemen   Antonio Turiel
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FEM       -- Las feministas   Rosa Cobo
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BRA        Lula: Espartaco de Bra. El desafío de los esclavos  Martín Granovsky
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PAL        - Un día de protesta en Gaza  Rana Shubair
                - Los sionistas y el pueblo palestino de Gaza?  Ramón Pedregal
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Liter       - -La mala hierba    Miguel Casado
                - ¿Por qué los buenos nunca ganan?  Íñigo Errejón
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ECOL      - -Fukushima, siete años  Keiko N. y Miguel Muñiz
                - El siniestro legado de las grandes represas  Gustavo Castro
                - -Agua: todo lo que se ignora, se desprecia  Marta Arenas y G D
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ECON    - Financiación de Desarrollo Sostenible  17 Objetivos   S G V
                - Pilar E:  "Estamos cambiando valor del agua por dinero" Fátima
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ALC        - Banco Santander orquestó la quiebra de Puerto Rico  Y Álvarez
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Cuba      - -Los fraseólogos revolucionarios  Alina B. López
                - -Hollywood y  la mafia terro rt-anticubana en Miami Arthur G
                - Resolviendo el “entuerto monetario” en Cuba  Pedro Monreal
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                En Brasil la ignominia tiene nombre  LM Arce  Terrorismo estatal?
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"LAS SANCIONES USA. VAN DIRIGIDAS CONTRA EL PUEBLO RUSO"  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/267730-sanciones-eeuu-dirigidas-rusia
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..


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