APR
21 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
US n GEO-POL NEWS
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
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RT SHOWS
ICYMI with
Polly Boiko Syria – West's humanitarian missiles are ready
to intervene
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to
break with Empire:
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n
chances of WW3
The U.S. Role in the Destruction of Syria By David Ray Griffin Continue
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Damascus - WMD Rumors Prepare For New U.S.
Attack By Moon O Alabama Continue
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Criminal Referral of Comey, Clinton et al: By
Ray McGovern Continue
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars: its profiteers US-NATO
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
"80%
of S&P 500 firms are in their buyback blackout windows, which means that
volatility will likely remain elevated during the next several weeks."
See Chart:
Furthermore, as noted before, the Goldman buyback desk
reported recently that it has witnessed a substantial acceleration in client
activity YTD (+62% year/year), having recently
experienced its most active day in history. In specific terms, S&P 500 buyback authorizations YTD have
totaled $205 billion, representing a 48% jump vs. the same point in 2017.
See Chart
…
See more charts at this source
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"It seems that many car buyers are still quite optimistic about how much debt they'll
be able to afford. We'll see how much
longer that optimism lasts. "
See Chart:
Easy
Money to the Rescue
Fortunately for auto makers, lenders can still offer them
cheap money to entice potential buyers with cheap financing — and auto
dealers have been using cheap loans to juice auto sales for years. Gabrielle
Coppola at Bloomberg this month noted, though, that the era of 0% auto loans may
be coming to an end — at least for now.
See chart:
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"...whatever you might think about the consequences of
skyrocketing government debt, you
should consider that it might be rocketing at a much steeper trajectory than
you’re being told..."
Building
a More Realistic Debt Outlook
With all of that in mind, I would say we can build a more
realistic debt outlook by
- starting
with the AS,
- adding
a moderate recession during the ten-year forecast period, and
- putting
$100 billion in annual unexpected spending back into the projection.
As noted above, the AS shows federal debt held by the public
reaching 105% of GDP in 2028. Now let’s add the moderate recession by tweaking
the unemployment rate. Here’s a picture showing what might happen to the
unemployment rate if the economy dips into recession in 2020–21 and then
recovers and expands from 2022 through 2028:
See Chart:
And here
are ten-year averages for the CBO projection versus the with-recession scenario (note that the 1950s and 1960s troughs were depressed by
conscription during the Korean and Vietnam wars, which makes them largely
irrelevant as a guide to current times):
See Chart:
Essentially, by drawing from all of
the CBO’s published research, we can remove the dream economy from its debt
scenario and replace it with an economy that better matches the real world. If we then also accept that 2018’s $100
billion in unexpected spending represents a normal amount, we get the following
“alternative” alternative scenario:
See Chart:
CONCLUSIONS
Judging by what you
read and hear in the mainstream media, the CBO is an absolute authority on all
things government debt. It’s independent, nonpartisan and full of
experts on economics and budgeting. When it tells us debt will reach 96% of GDP
in ten years time, as in the baseline scenario that dominates media coverage,
that’s a figure we can rely on.
But in
fact, reality doesn’t match the reputation. Sure, the CBO’s experts
know the ins and outs of governmental budgeting, and they’re almost certainly
good people (I’m not calling them idiots and liars). But they’re human, they’re
beholden to other humans, they work in an institution created by humans, and
all of that means they operate under constraints and biases:
- They
face fierce political pressure from a Congress that wants to be seen as
fiscally responsible even though it’s anything but;
- they
face equally fierce peer pressure from trained economists who insist on
head-in-the-sand forecasting methods;
- they
have to abide by governing statutes that invite a variety of lawmaking
shenanigans; and
- they’re
surely reluctant to be the bearers of bad news—for reputation and
advancement, it’s better to be idealistic and then explain later what you
got wrong.
So whatever you might think about the consequences
of skyrocketing government debt, you should consider that it might be rocketing
at a much steeper trajectory than you’re being told.
…
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-21/worse-you-think-8-reality-checks-last-weeks-cbo-report
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Unfortunately this ART is blocked.. but I manage to extract
some notes to get a sense of it. The message is:
sustainable development is an impossible with the current neoliberal
economy. One move further and we will
overcook the meal and nobody will it. If happens, it will be vomited.
THE GROWTH
CYCLE HAS PEAKED...
The Federal Reserve of Atlanta's GDPNow measure, which gives
a forecast of Q1 2018's expected GDP, is currently
coming in at 2.0%, down from the much more vigorous 5.4% growth predicted as
recently as early February:
See Chart:
Evolution of the Atlanta
FED-GDP now
and
The chart that clearly shows that,
since then, we've been in an era of diminishing returns in exchanging debt for
growth:
See Chart:
Something broke at the Economy since 2008
Both and more charts at the source below:
The
Bigger Predicament
Specifically, our destiny is in the hands of the Laws of
Thermodynamics. Without a surfeit of new, plentiful,
BTU-dense and affordable energy sources (which we simply don't see on the
horizon), economic growth cannot be sustained.
…
In Part 2: Energy Is The
Non-Negotiable Element Defining Our Future, we re-publish this report in full, which is even more relevant and
important to heed today then when Chris wrote it eight years ago -- as our economy specifically, and humanity
in general, are totally unprepared for a future of even slightly less energy.
Everything is tuned
to grow exponentially. There is no "plan B".
….
….
My opinion THERE IS
“PLAN B” :
PEOPLE’S
REBELION TO FACE CURRENT ECO-POL CHAOS:
By Hugo
Adan April 21 2018
Our Economy is miss-investing our resources in WMD &
WARS.. This system only benefit few profiteers of the neoliberal economy. We need to re-invest our
resources toward a sustainable development. We’re close to accomplish this
objectivet.. the political context and
the Econ stagnation .. say so.
There is a division
inside the apparatus that control the Govt - the so called “deep state”- the anti-war sector is getting up.. And the dominant investor
sector –those associated with MIC (Milit Ind Comp ) are receiving tough critics
from investors associated to direct Economic Production: all QEs and money from
big bankers are being wasted to recycle the same garbage system. In the bottom,
the distress of working classes and the students without clear future in the
current market are becoming more and more radical every day.
We need a cup-d-etat –a soft one- a one that
connect mass rebellion with top leaders.. and we need it before Nov Election.
This implies re-directing the mass -rebellion of the masses against the current
global chaos (PEACE vs WARs) and the immediate change of the electoral system.
No more super-packs and NO more super-delegates, could be the start to ignite the new protest on streets.
Investing in
Election should be considered a crime against Democracy and this implies stop feeding the corporate
media and their stuff with millions donated by
billionaires. The political debates should be run by C-Span, the free
media supported by all states.
The duopoly system (Dems n Reps ) are financed by the
oligarchy to serve their interest (via frauds). We need to change this system,
if the leaders of both parties do not accept it, we should boycott election of NOV by calling for ABSTENTION.
This rebellion can
create context for a 3rd
option or for a multi-party system.. We suggest that all parties who get
2% of signatures of the total electorate
in every State district should be
allow to register as new party and those who obtain 5% of the votes , should
get a State representation.
While the National
rebellion demanding new electoral rules
start the destruction of the duopoly system .. a People’s Front will
emerge across America against Dems n Reps parties. The People’s Front will
re-define the new structure of State Govts to liquidate the parasitic Washington FED.
A quasi
parliamentary Democracy will be
installed with multiple autonomous FEDS. The big bankers and Corp of billionaires may try to implement
their secession plan,, but they will be indicted by the People Front for the
economic chaos and damage caused to
sustainable development
A new right and
left political forces will emerge. The
quasi- parliamentary Democracy suggested by the People Front will defeat them..
This is in short a
plan for a coup-d-etat toward a proportional representation in the power
system. The new system will be a mix of Parlamentary Democrcy
and Executive power. The leaders, time-table, tasks and resources will
be constructed in the dynamic of this rebellion.
THIS project has
nothing to do with the RU Bolshevik Rev, nor the Mao’s Rev in China. This is
inspired by the experience of FDR in the 1930. There will be several New Deals across the Nation toward one single
objective: to implement a real new democracy in America. There will be also New
Glass-Steagal-Acts in different States
to stop the predatoy legacy of
speculative investors and their parasitic monopolies against middle &
WORKING –classes. The Tobin tax will be imposed on all those parasitic
billonaries. IF they don’t accepted they
will be indicted for the damage caused to our Economy and our Nation, and they
may be expropriated, if they resist.
We also take the
experience from Latin Am: In Peru the Presid Velasco Alvarado created Peasant
Federations to support his “anti-oligachical Agrarian Reform”. It was a great
reform but ignored the peasant communities. After Velasco was assassinated by a
rightist general, the community peasants took the Federacion and made real
cooperatives. The lesson: we do not have
to destroy org created to serve the
oligarchy. We have to control them and give it the right direction. The same
happen in Nicaragua and other countries in Central America. In all of them it
wasn’t necessary a People Front to articulate peasants to fight with central
power. The articulat was done by
Theology of liberation. I did belong to this Org & help peasants to take
control of Velasco Federation. Theology of Liberation is an underground
Christian Org run by nuns & lower
clergy. Reagan administration named them “communists” and order to kill them, several nuns and the
Bishop Romero were killed. Even though the Peasant succeeded and the Rev is
still on in Nicaragua.
The same can be
done here in America, we do not have to destroy the GOP nor Dems party . But we
have to depart from zero because we do not have organized cells as community
peasant have and neither a People’s Front to articulate all the cells. So we
have to create first cells inside both parties with a minimum of 3 persons by
cell. Three persons with enough will and clarity to shake the sea, the earth inside
both parties (Dems & GOPs). The
mission is to destroy the duopoly party system and the objective is to create a
real new democracy System in America.The strategy to mobilize people is to
change the rules of current electoral
system. Our demand contain five points:
1-
Not to
superpaks and super-delegates. They are the source of cronyism or corruption
2-
Set 2%
of signatures from the total electorate in a district to register a new party
3-
Set 5%
of the valid votes in elections to get proportional power in a new State System
4-
Desing
a frame to mix Parlamentarism with Executive power to change State Constit
5-
Not more
manufacture of WMD nor wars: deal with superpower SN to dismantle nukes
America have human resources,
technology and creativity to put forward this rebellion in favor of NEW
DEMOCRACY in our country.
WE WILL
WIN.. VENCEREMOS!
…
…
This art was based
on the reading of the article:
Open:
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"H1
was supposed to be fine – like last year; IG was supposed to keep outperforming
HY; Is this a succession of unhappy coincidences or something deeper?"
See Chart:
See more charts at the source below
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US POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
The report
states that this lost generation had a
positive net wealth of $9,000 in 2013, but since, the accumulation of debt has turned
America’s future leaders into the walking dead...
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As more people flee California, cities
like Boise are seeing an influx of wealthy residents as economic opportunities
in the region soar...
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Angrier and
angrier and angrier...
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“We’re calling on WikiLeaks, Russia, and Trump campaign officials to join the Democratic Party in our efforts to
spend the next several years prioritizing endless fucking discussions
about potential election interference and what that means for
democracy..."
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..
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