JAN 4 16 SIT EC y POL
1-EL CRASH DE LA
ECONOMIA CHINA y sus EFECTOS A NIVEL MUNDIAL.
Por Hugo Adan
[ El crash de China es
del 7%, que fue el ritmo al que estuvieron creciendo. Hoy están en zero y han
decidido esperar la respuesta de la administración Obama para decidir su nueva
política Econ. Aun estando en zero, la economía de China está en mejor posición
que otras Ec grandes del mundo, entre ellas la de Europa y grandes miembros del
BRICs (Brasil y ARG), para enfrentar la posibilidad de una depresión mundial
similar a la de 1930. Las tres opciones de la Administracion Obama son : A- regresar al punto zero del interest rate. B-
dejar como esta la tasa de intereses y de inflación (lo que aventura el riesgo
de severa deflación y otro crash) mientras el empresariado se divide más (caso
JP Morgan y Bank of America mas muchos bancos estatales). C- Subir la tasa de
intereses y decretar la muerte o suicidio del empresariado especulador (el
vulture capital) y la caída final de las economías emergentes que no podrían pagar
la deuda externa ni continuar con el dólar. Lo que significa que la opción C
seria de muy corta duración, menos de un año, lo suficiente para los funerales
de la mafia especuladora. Luego tendrían que regresar al punto zero interest
rate y una tasa de crecimiento zero, que es donde está hoy China. Si el US opta
por B y C China podría hacer caer la economía occidental y decretar el crash
mundial en el que solo ellos y los rusos, mas India, quedarían bien parados en
lo inmediato. Esta es la situación actual, bien resumida en el punto 1 – 2 -3
del summary de zerohedge lo que adjunto en la parte final de economía (abajo).
Quiero subrayar además una sospecha. Si Ms Yellen opta por B y C hay el riesgo
de que el empresariado descontento -JPMorgan y Bank o America mas otros bancos menores en diversos Estados-
se embarquen en la aventura GOLPE DE ESTADO desde el deep-state, o de que
apoyen la supuesta “insurreccion armada de Oregon” sobre todo si se produce una
masacre, que es lo que al parecer ya lo están intentando con la prensa corp.]
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2- IS
2016 THE YEAR OF THE DOLLAR COLLAPSE?. by
Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/2016 OPEN THIS FILE.
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ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS
China
Day 1: Monumental Destruction. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/2016.
The main lessons from today is that market shocks can be
quite quick, when they suddenly unravel. There is no need for markets to
follow an observable pattern (therefore casting an omen just for you). Recall
as well that this is just "day 1"! There are 20 additional
dramatic trading days ahead this month, where anything can precipitously take
place.
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The
Tragicomedy Of Self-Defeating Monetary Policy. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/2016
The Fed, along with government, needs to properly incent
productivity. The Fed should start this arduous task by removing excessive
stimulus which will take the speculative fervor out of markets and allow asset
bubbles to deflate.
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After
Tumbling At Open, Chinese Stocks Erase All Losses. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/16
“Update: It's a miracle..."Someone" stepped
in and bid the entire Chinese market higher off its huge opening gap down...”
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IS
2016 THE YEAR OF THE DOLLAR COLLAPSE?.
by
Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/2016 OPEN THIS FILE.
"In America, the idea is that if you work hard
and play by the rules, you’ll be rewarded with a good life for yourself and a
better chance for your children.” That’s what America used to stand
for, and indeed much of the Western world. Freedom. Truth. Hard work and fair
play. Building a better life. But those ideals have all but faded now, displaced
by a new normal of war, debt, government surveillance, freedom-killing
bureaucracy, and a monetary policy that decimates responsible, hard-working
people for the benefit of a tiny elite.
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MANIPULATING OFICIAL
ECON DATA:
US
Government Discovers 10 Years Of "Processing Errors" In Construction
Spending Data Slamming GDP. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/2016
Earlier today the US Census released its latest, November, construction
spending data, which not only missed expectations of a 0.6% rebound, but
tumbled -0.4%, the most since June of 2014, while all the recent data had been
mysteriously revised lower. And then the source of the mystery was revealed,
because in the fine print the government made a rare admission: all the
construction spending data for the past 10 years had been "erroneous."
[ hay una distancia
grande entre mentiras piadosas (evitar el pánico) y mentiras despiadadas
(impedir que el pueblo sea informado correctamente para prevenir o evitar efectos
de la recesión. Read this also: Are
Governments Running Out of Candy?
.]
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The
Best Leading Indicator For Recession Is Flashing Red, JPMorgan Warns. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/2016: JPMorgan notes
that in fact the three best leading indicators for recession are: Credit
spreads, yield curve shape, and profit margins. Unfortunately for The Fed
and its congregation, JPM warns credit spreads are not giving a positive
signal.
…
Read this also: The Fed's New
Mandate. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/2016: Because our macroeconomic policies have false
targets and actually incentivize short term strategies the Fed has directly led
us off of an economic cliff. Now that the Fed has boxed itself out of any
further action, the market is at the peril of a collapsing,
breadwinner-job-less and debt ridden economy and so prepare yourself for the
largest market ‘correction’ the world has ever faced.
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Angola's
Currency Collapses To Record Low As "Hyperinflation Monster" Looms
Over AfricaSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016. Mas signos de depresión mundial..
y la respuesta correcta de Africa.
Just
two weeks ago we warned of the looming "hyperinflation monster" in
Africa with the continent appearing to be running out of dollars as some of
Africa’s largest economies, including Nigeria,
Angola, Ethiopia and Mozambique, are restricting access to the greenback to
protect dwindling reserves.
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There’s really one supreme element of this story that you
must keep in view at all times: a society (i.e. an economy + a polity = a political
economy) based on debt that will never be paid back
is certain to crack up.
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“The reckless herd has been in control for the last few
years, but their recklessness is going to get them slaughtered. Corporate
profits are plunging. Labor participation continues to fall. A global recession
is in progress. The strong U.S. dollar is crushing exports and profits of
international corporations. Real household income remains stagnant, while
healthcare, rent, home prices, education, and a myriad of other daily living
expenses relentlessly rises. The world is a powder keg, with tensions rising
ever higher in the Middle East, Ukraine, Europe, and China. The lessons
of history scream for caution at this moment in time, not recklessness. 2016
will be a year of reckoning for the reckless herd.”
[ Excelente descripción del contexto mundial. .. El sistema
neoliberal se va a la merda.]
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Byron
Wien's Reveals Top 10 Predictions: Expects Stocks To Decline After Predicting
15% Rise In 2015. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/2016
"The United States equity market has a down year.
Stocks suffer from weak earnings, margin pressure (higher wages and no pricing
power) and a price- earnings ratio contraction. Investors keeping large cash
balances because of global instability is another reason for the disappointing
performance."
..
..
[ Si los grandes
“inversores” dicen que el capitalism no funciona.. debe ser cierto .]
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European
Stocks Suffer Worst Start To Year Ever. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/16
[ Sin duda estamos en visperas de una
nueva depresión EC mundial como la de 1930.]
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Frontrunning:
January 4. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/2016 - 07:37
- China stocks tank, triggers circuit breaker (Reuters)
- Stocks Slump Across Europe and Asia Following Shanghai's 7% Crash (BBG)
- China Halts Stock Trading After 7% Rout Triggers Circuit Breaker (BBG)
- Iran says Riyadh thrives on tension after relations cut (Reuters)
- Saudis and Bahrain Face Off With Iran in Worst Clash Since 1980s (BBG)
- Syrian rebel group backs Saudi move to cut ties with Iran (Reuters)
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SUMMARY: EL EFECTO CRASH IN CHINA.
...
1- Happy
New Year: Global Stocks Crash After China Is Halted Limit Down In Worst Start
To Year In History. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/2016 “It all started
off relatively well: oil and US equity futures were buoyant on hopes Iran and
Saudi Arabia would break out in a bloody conflict any minute boosting the net
worth of shareholders of the military industrial complex, and then, out of
nowhere, like a depressed China in a bull shop, the "mainland"
crashed the party and it all well south very, very quickly...”
...
2-China
Halts Stock Trading For Day After Entire Market Crashes. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/2016. “Following the initial halt in CSI-300 Futures at the
5% limit down level, the afternoon session opened to more carnage and amid the
worst 'first day of the year' in at least 15 years, Chinese stocks collapsed further to a 7% crash.
At 1334 local time, stock trading was halted for the rest of the day across
all exchanges (at least two hours early). Dow futures are now down over 150
points from NYE close, Gold and Treasuries are bid, and offshore Yuan has
plunged most since the August devaluation.
...
[ Si estuvo creciendo
al 7% y el crash es del 7% china esta en el punto zero, no minus zero como lo
estan Europa y el resto del BRICs que tiene menos -5 below. China espera saber que va a decidir
la administración Obama (el hike-rate creo problemas de inversión y producción y
solo les queda tres cosas, o regresar al punto zero interest rate, dejar las
cosas como están, y/o subir la tasa de intereses y dividir mas al empresariado USA,
con el riesgo de que el sector perjudicado JPMorgan y Bank o America mas otros
bancos menores atisen un golpe de Estado o una insurrección armada interna como
al parecer lo estarían intentando con la prensa corporativa.]
3- Dow
Futures Dump 300 Points From New Year's Eve Highs As China Crashes.
Submitted by Tyler Durden
on 01/03/2016: With China closing the morning session limit down (and Yuan
collapsing), US equity futures are extending their losses (even though
crude futures are holding some of their gains). The initial knee-jerk jump as
crude rose on Saudi tensions has been entirely erased and Dow Futures are now
down 300 points from New Year's Eve highs... Happy New Year.
...
[ Una cosa es cierta: la
devaluación del yuan les permite a los Chinos exportar y sobrevivir dentro del
área asiática .. hay en China sobre-producción y tienen que des-hacerse de ella.
.. Podrían incluso cancelar ventas al imperio (subirían
muchos precios en América) y rechazar su inversión en dólares, pero si aceptarla
en yuanes, lo que aceleraría la caída de las grandes economía de occidente.]
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What
Really Happened In 2015, And What Is Coming In 2016.... S-by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/2016
“.. what did happen? A global financial crisis
began during the second half of 2015 threatens to greatly accelerate as we
enter 2016. This is what the early stages of a financial crisis look
like, and the worst is yet to come.”
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Industrial
Recession Now Inevitable As Manufacturing ISM Worst In Six Years. Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016
Following China's disappointing drop in Manufacturing
PMI overnight,.. The ISM Manufacturing crashed to 48.2 (deep in contraction)
- the weakest level since June 2009, with employment bumping along at its
lowest level since September 2009 and imports (reflecting domestic demand
perhaps) crashed to levels only seen twice in 20 years.
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POLITICS
2016
Theme #1: The Loss Of Great Power Leverage. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016
A number of systemic, structural forces are
intersecting in 2016. One is the decline of Great Power leverage. [ El imperio en descomposicion es una realidad que no admite discussion.]
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This Is A
Very Troubling Chart Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016. The chart
below, showing the total number of monthly FBI
Firearm background checks - a direct proxy for gun purchases in the U.S.,
needs no commentary.
Here is the same data, on a
monthly basis to avoid the seasonal noise. No matter how one looks at it
though, the 3.3 million background checks in December was a record high.
As of this moment Smith and
Wesson is trading at an all time high.
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Playing
The Government’s Game: When It Comes To Violence, We All Lose. Submitted
by Tyler Durden
on 01/04/2016
It doesn’t matter what the issue is, these are the
building blocks of a political powder keg. Much like the heated protests
that arose after the police shootings in Ferguson and Baltimore, there’s a
subtext to the Oregon incident that must not be ignored, and it is simply this:
America is a pressure cooker with no steam valve, and things are about to
blow. Now all that remains is a spark, and it need not be a very big
one, to set the whole powder keg aflame.
…
THIS IS A NICE ANSWER to the above art: Montel
Williams Calls For "Shoot To Kill" In Oregon Showdown; Militiamen
Respond They Are "Ready To Fight"
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This
Just Became The Most Important Map In Geopolitics. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/2016
‘”T the following map from Goldman which does a nice job of
delineating the Sunni-Shiite split in the Mid-East.”
How are the different branches of Islam represented in
politics? In some countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the rulers adhere to the
same branch of Islam as the majority of their citizens. However, this is not
always the case. Despite being predominantly Shiite, Iraqis lived under Sunni
rulers for much of history, including under the Ottoman Empire and the Ba’thist
regime of Saddam Hussein. (Ba’thists are members of the Arab Socialist Ba’th
Party, a political party founded in Syria in the 1940s on platforms of Arab
nationalism and anti- colonialism. In Iraq, the Ba’thists governed from 1958
until the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.) The Iraqi Ba’thist regime was
secular in name but reserved political influence for the Sunni elite. In a
break from its long history of Sunni political dominance, Iraq is currently
ruled by a Shiite-majority government centered in Baghdad. Conversely, in Sunni-majority
Syria, members of the Shiite Alawite sect have controlled the government since
1970.
What is the composition of Sunnis and Shiites in the
Muslim world today? Sunnis make up the majority of Muslims worldwide – an
estimated 85-90%. Sunnis comprise 85% or more of the Muslim populations in
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates, and 70-85% in
Kuwait, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Shiites comprise the majority in Bahrain,
Iraq, and Azerbaijan (all 60-65% Shiite), as well as in Iran (90-95%), home of
the largest Shiite population. Although the Middle East and North Africa region
is overwhelmingly Muslim (93%), it is home to only around 20% of Muslims
worldwide. The majority – over 60% – lives in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Gun
Stocks Soar Ahead Of Obama's Gun-Control Executive-Action Tomorrow. Submitted
by Tyler Durden
on 01/04/2016
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Oil
Companies Shun South Chinese Sea As Geopolitical Tensions Rise. S- by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/16
[ US vs. China.. los
quates de Mx describen bien este lio: “Ganas de joder en el mundo entero, no
les falta a los hueros.. quiza no recuerdan que cuando China envió tropas a
Viet Nam los hueros tuvieron que salir
con la cola bajo el culo .. el día en que China mande tropas al país donde
están jodiendo… adiós a la enchilada USAna.. ] Es cierto.. que carajo hacemos nosotros en el
Asia mayor?
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Montel
Williams Calls For "Shoot To Kill" In Oregon Showdown; Militiamen
Respond They Are "Ready To Fight" . Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 01/04/2016
[ Este título
describe bien la paranoia esquizofrénica y suicida de los americanos .. No hay
guerra que ganar fuera y queremos matar a nuestra propia gente.. A esto apunta
el atizar el conflicto en Oregon. Alli no hay ninguna rebelión armada..
cualquier ranchero en américa lleva consigo armas y botas y eso no significa
que estén en rebelión. El “occupy” fue y es un Mov social pacifista en America.
La de los rancheros de Oregon es también un Mov pacifista de protesta contra la
decisión controversial de una corte que ya los inculpo de falso ranson y que
ahora les quiere prolongar la sentencia.. Se especula sobre propósitos ocultos
(políticos) en esta aventura: el usarlos como nueva víctima en la política de Obama de cortar la
venta de armas al interior del país. .. Ya antes crearon actos terroristas para
esto y no les funcionó .. America va a
estallar si cometen otra atrocidad como la que ya ocurrio en Waco, Texas,
también con demócratas en el poder (los Clinton) .. Lo que vino un año después
–justo en el aniversario de la masacre en Waco y como respuesta al terrorismo
de Estado .. fue el terrorismo de los de abajo.. y eso es lo que podría volver
a ocurrir si se comete similar atrocidad… Este es un problema creado por la media
corporativa, los de la presstitude.. y que se puede resolver por una corte
superior o por la Corte Suprema.. no usando actos de terrorismo. Es lo que hay que
evitar. ]
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Midle East CRISIS
..
[ Invaden Libano y
quieren que los aplaudan. Los psicópatas
Israelís no pueden con su genio, el día que se maten entre ellos.. no se debe
culpar a las armas. ]
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Saudi
Default, Devaluation Odds Spike As Mid-East Careens Into Chaos. Submitted
by Tyler Durden
on 01/04/2016
“..the kingdom have blown out to
six-year wides while the implied odds of the riyal peg finally breaking are hitting
new record highs.”
..
[ El petro-dolar esta
llegando a su final .. El IMF podría salvar el dólar con el SDR.. pero
es tarde .. TOO LATE AND TOO BIG TO BE SAVED.. THE
WHALE IS ALREADY IN DECOMPOSITION!!. ]
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Saudi Arabia’s Phony War on Terror.
By Brahma Chellaney. Like a drug cartel
claiming to have launched a counternarcotics drive, the Saudi-led “anti-terror”
coalition includes all the world’s terror sponsors.
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Saudi
Execution Aimed at Provoking Regional Bloodbath . By Finian Cunningham. The unadulterated
madness of the slaying betrays an altogether pathological calculation aimed at
inciting mayhem in the region
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The
“Dictator Problem”. By Daniel Larison. How far should the U.S. should
go to bring down pariah or hostile regimes by proxy or through direct
intervention
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The
American Empire: Murder Inc. By Chris Hedges. There are very few journalists who have covered
empire with more courage, tenacity and integrity than Allan Nairn.
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US Military
Leadership Resisted Obama's Bid for Regime Change in Syria, Libya. By Gareth Porter.
The CIA operation used ostensibly independent companies in Libya to ship arms from
Libyan government warehouses to Syria and southern Turkey.
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Study
Proves Maidan Snipers Were Western-Backed Opposition’s False Flag. By Sputnik News. The killings of protestors were organized by far
right paramilitary groups and allied political parties, not the former
government’s Berkut riot police
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The
Survival of Humanity. Economic Warfare Against The World. By Peter Koenig. US/ NATO instigated conflicts, wars
and proxy or mercenary wars in the last 15 years have left
behind a death toll of 10 to 12 million people.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
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ALC. “La obsesión por el crecimiento es
un disparate”. Fundación Decide. Chile.
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PRESS TV
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'New bans, defense curbs wreck JCPOA' About
sanctions on Tehran
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Government named top US problem .Polit conflicts: main US prob. Accord to Gallup Poll
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