miércoles, 20 de enero de 2016

JAN 19 16 SIT EC y POL



JAN 19 16 SIT EC y POL

NOTICE: ATTEMPT TO RESTORE THE MISSING FILE OF JAN 19
SORRY: THE GRAPHICS WERE DELETED BY MOZILA firefox

ZERO HEDGE



10Y Treasury Yields are plunging back below 2.00% (lowest in 3 months), WTI crude front-month (March) has just tumbled to a $28 handle, and Dow futures are now down over 500 points from this morning's exuberant stimulus hope highs...
Crude has collaped back below $29...

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Clinton Vs. Sanders - What Does Google Say... And The Facts. S- by Tyler Durden on 01/19/16 : As Liberty Blitizkrieg's Mike Krieger notes, the following "suggested searches" from Google pretty much sums up how the general public feels about the two leading candidates for the Democratic nomination...

The new poll, mostly conducted before Sunday night's debate, found Sanders' support has grown by 10 points since a late-November/early December CNN/WMUR poll, which found Sanders holding 50% to Clinton's 40%.

And here are the facts, as dissected by Politifact:

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The 21st Century: An Era Of Fraud. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016: In “freedom and democracy” America, the government and the economy serve interests totally removed from the interests of the American people. The sellout of the American people is protected by a huge canopy of propaganda provided by free market economists and financial presstitutes paid to lie for their living. It is unclear that the US economy can be revived.
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When Correlation Is Causation - The Most Important Chart In The World If You're A Realtor In London Or NYC. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016 : If ever there was any doubts about the narrative of freedom-seeking China capital outflows driving the irrationally exuberant prices of homes in some of the world's largest cities to record highs, the following two charts will extinguish them entirely. As China continues to strengthen (as quietly as possible) its capital controls to slow the leak of money from the devaluing currency nation, and US authorities clamp-down on the anonymity of cash-only transactions, realtors in NYC, Miami, and London better hope that correlation is not causation.

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Crude Oil Slides Below $28, Lowest Since 2003, Dragging US Equity Futures Lower. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016 : Traders had some hope that they could take at least a brief nap ahead of the China open before all risk hell broke loose in the latest evening session, however either some liquidating algo or the Iranian oil trading desk had different plans, and moments ago WTI dipped below $28 per barrel, sliding as low as $27.92, doing so only for the first time since 2003, a new 12 year low.
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Canada Set To Unleash Negative Rates As Oil Patch Dies, Depression Deepens Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016 : Canada’s oil “dream” is dying thanks to the inexorable slide in crude prices and as the IEA made clear earlier today, the pain is set to persist for the foreseeable future as the world “drowns in oversupply.” Now, the Bank of Canada must make a choice: cut to support the economy and the country's dying oil patch, or hold to shore up the plunging loonie.
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The Market Stubbornly Refuses To Believe A Crash May Be Coming: Here's Why. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016 : The fabric of the market is showing signs of fracturing, as 9 years of declining policy rates and 6 years of QEs failed to kick-off growth, while, as Fasanara Capital's Francesco Filia notes, further easing has a visibly decreasing marginal effectiveness. It is end-of-cycle-type policymaking and market responsiveness and while some markets and sentiment reflect the concerns of a tail-risk-like collapse, stocks remain dissonant in the medium-term to the ongoing rioting against monetary activism and market manipulation by global Central Banks.
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62 People Have More Wealth Than Half The World, Top 1% Have More Than Everyone Else. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016 : The global inequality crisis is reaching new extremes. The richest 1% now have more wealth than the rest of the world combined. Power and privilege is being used to skew the economic system to increase the gap between the richest and the rest," Oxfam asserts, adding that "the current system did not come about by accident, humanity can do better than this."
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IMF Slashes Global Growth Outlook Again, Warning "Of Great Challenges" In Year Ahead. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016 : A sharper than expected downturn in China, a soaring USD, sudden bouts of global risk aversion, and escalating geopolitical tensions will conspire to make 2016 a "bumpy ride," the IMF says, on the way to cutting its forecast for global growth for the fifth time in fifteen months.

EXTRACTS & GRAPHICS
“This coming year is going to be a year of great challenges and policymakers should be thinking about short-term resilience and the ways they can bolster it, but also about the longer-term growth prospects,” Maurice Obstfeld, IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, said in the Fund's latest world economic outlook.

The strong dollar is weighing on the US manufacturing sector, while emerging markets are “now confronting a new reality of lower growth,” the Fund says, adding that “the risks are tilted to the downside.”

What risks, you ask? These risks:
  • A sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, which could bring more international spillovers through trade, commodity prices, and waning confidence.
  • A further appreciation of the dollar and tighter global financing conditions which could raise vulnerabilities in emerging markets, possibly creating adverse effects on corporate balance sheets and raising funding challenges for those with high dollar exposures.
  • A sudden bout of global risk aversion, regardless of the trigger, could lead to sharp further depreciations and possible financial strains in vulnerable emerging market economies.
  • An escalation of ongoing geopolitical tensions in a number of regions, which could affect confidence and disrupt global trade, financial flows, and tourism. New economic or political shocks in countries currently in economic distress which could also derail the projected pickup in activity.
  • Commodity markets pose two-sided risks. On the downside, further declines in commodity prices would worsen the outlook for already-fragile commodity producers, and widening yields on energy sector debt threaten a broader tightening of credit conditions.
    • On the upside, the recent decline in oil prices may provide a stronger boost to demand in oil importers, including through consumers’ possible perception that prices will remain lower for longer.

“All in all, there is a lot of uncertainty out there, and I think that contributes to the volatility,” said Obstfeld. “We may be in for a bumpy ride this year, especially in the emerging and developing world."

Yes, we "may", especially considering the fact that all of the "risks" the IMF outlines aren't really "risks" but rather realities. That is, we're already seeing a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, a soaring dollar, a sudden bout of global risk aversion, and escalating geopolitical tensions. 

In any event, here are the latest projections from the Fund which include a downward revision of 0.2% for both the US and the world, and a sharply lower outlook for depression-stricken Brazil.

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Frontrunning: January 19. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016 - 08:20
  • Spot the common thread: China's growth hits quarter-century low, raising hopes of more stimulus (Reuters)
  • And here: China stocks climb on hopes for new economic stimulus (Reuters)
  • Welcome to the Crisis Economy, Where Tumult Reigns (WSJ)
  • IEA Sees Risk of World Drowning in Oil (BBG)
  • IEA Sees Iran's Return Intensifying Battle for Europe Oil Market (BBG)
  • China 2015 power, steel output drop for first time in decades (Reuters)
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Equities Soar, Oil Back Over $30 On Hopes For More Stimulus Following Disturbing Chinese Data. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016: Last night's Chinese data deluge can only be classified with one word: bad. So if bad news was again bad news as many claim, both commodities (read oil), and US equity futures should be tumbling right now... but just the opposite is happening and in fact both Brent and WTI have already jumped over $30 this morning. Simple: the following Bloomberg headline summarizes it: "Brent Rallies More Than $1 as China GDP Spurs Stimulus Bets," and where Brent goes, so goes risk, and the S&P.
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MIDDLE EAST

Stocks Slump After Saudis Threaten Nukes Against "Nefarious" Iran. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016 : "While Iran claims its top foreign policy priority is friendship, its behavior shows the opposite is true. Iran is the single-most-belligerent-actor in the region, and its actions display both a commitment to regional hegemony and a deeply held view that conciliatory gestures signal weakness either on Iran’s part or on the part of its adversaries. Saudi Arabia will not allow Iran to undermine our security or the security of our allies. We will push back against attempts to do so."
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GLOBAL RESEARCH


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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE


Planet of Fear . By Pepe Escobar. The Masters of the Universe – just like the Russians – have realized their oil manipulation cannot last.
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European Civilization Stands at the Precipice. By Alexander Prokhanov. Flooded by foreigners and having disowned its roots, are we witnessing the end of Europe?
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Is Iran Taking the China Road?. By Patrick J. Buchanan. Is the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, a RINO – a revolutionary in name only?
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No, The Nuclear Sanctions On Iran Did Not Work. By Moon Of Alabama. Sanctions did not work in the case of the nuclear issue with Iran. Sanctions will also not work one Iran's ballistic missile program
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Meet Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s First-Ever Primary Challenger. By Glenn Greenwald. Wasserman Schultz is the living, breathing embodiment of everything rotted and corrupt about the Democratic Party.
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The 21st Century: An Era Of Fraud. By Paul Craig Roberts. In America today there are no free financial markets.  All the markets are rigged by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.
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The Fed’s Role in the Stock Market Slide. By Mike Whitney. It certainly appears that Wall Street and the Fed are edging ever closer to their inevitable day of reckoning.
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Sailing Through a Meltwater Pulse . By Dmitry Orlov. There are all those who, whenever I publish something that mentions climate change, crawl out of the woodwork and gnash their exoskeletal mandibles at me.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH


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Perú.  Entre la luz y la esperanza. Gustavo Espinoza M.
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PRESS TV


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