jueves, 14 de enero de 2016

JAN 14 16 SIT EC y POL



JAN 14 16 SIT EC y POL

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ZERO HEDGE

ECONOMICS



by Dmitry Orlov via Club Orlov blog,  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2016.
A financial oligarchy has seized control of the country, and, since it can't control its own appetites, is running it into the ground. Thus, it would make sense for it to have some sort of back-up plan for when the whole financial house of cards falls apart. Ideally, this plan would effectively put down any chance of revolt of the downtrodden masses, and allow the oligarchy to maintain security and hold onto its wealth. Peacetime is fine for as long as it can placate the populace with bread and circuses, but when a financial calamity causes the economy to crater and bread and circuses turn scarce, a handy fallback is war. http://www.zerohedge.com OPEN: FINANCIAL COLLAPSE LEADS TO WAR. http://nd-hugoadan.blogspot.com/2016/01/financial-collapse-leads-to-war.html
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Alberta Freezes Government Salaries As Canada's Oil Patch Enters Second Year Of Recession. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2016: "The Alberta Public Service is made up of hard working and dedicated women and men who do valuable work each and every day in the service of Albertans. However, to maintain stability and protect jobs within the public service, we must deal with the economic realities we’re facing.”
[US hike-rates is accelerating the 2nd WORLD DEPRESSION after the one in 1930s .. CANADA our neighbor  is falling apart .. it is sad, but it is real ]
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"Markets Crash When They're Oversold". Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2016. : When markets begin a "bear" cycle, they can remain in an oversold condition for extended periods. There is an important 'truism' to remember - "Markets crash when they’re oversold."

[ Tantos no se pueden equivocar … todo indica que nuestro sistema neoliberal se está yendo a la merda. ]
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The "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund" Crushed It In 2015. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/16.: "Your fund made 5.6% net last month, to finish the year up 20.45% net. Gains came from the short book.... Your fund remains long bonds, short equities."
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The 'Real' Price Of Oil Is Below $17. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2016. “Bloomberg notes, while oil prices flashing across traders' terminals are at the lowest in a decade, in real terms the collapse is considerably deeper. .. Saudi Light Crude is trading at below $17 (in 1998 dollar terms) - the lowest since the 1980s...”
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 [ HE AQUÍ UNA DISTOPIA DE CONEJOS

Estamos atrapados en una trampa de la que jamás podremos salir, se nos dice en este art. El “hike-rate” ha creado un black-hole, una trampa para conejos que no tiene fondo, trampa que la controla “Mr Global” : las grandes mafias financieras. Quiza podemos regresar al zero-interest-rate para retornar un poco de estabilidad al sistema neoliberal, pero esto solo si es lo que más conviene a un sector de las mafias que controlan el poder; es decir, ni siquiera el regreso al zero-interest-rate  depende de la Nacion  (las capas medias, las clases trabajadoras ni de los pobres). Lo deciden ellos, los que controlan la finacializacion neoliberal mediante el FED. Es cierto que están divididos. Pero los  banksters, y los duenios de hedge funds, private equity funds and VC’s siempre estarán unidos cuando se trate de aplastar la subversión de sus esclavos o conejos. Eso es lo que se plantea en este Art.

Sin embargo, lo cierto es que siempre hubo niveles de polarización social como el de ahora y que los pueblos se organizaron, estallaron e hicieron trizas el sistema opresor. Esta vez la Rev no tendrá que ser violenta, ni será tan pacifica como el Mov de Lutter King. Sera si una rev político-democrática y directamente articulada inicialmente al fenómeno electoral. Pero con capacidad de ir mas allá de las elecciones si se logra armar un FRENTE independiente con lo mejor de ambos partidos (dems y reps) . Con ese Frente y con referéndums podremos obligar a los electos a gobernar obedeciendo al pueblo.  De eso se trata.

Por lo pronto hay que evitar que estalle la 3ra guerra mundial que apunta a apoderarse del territorio Ruso-Chino. Esa guerra destruiría todo escenario de paz mundial. Si los elefantes caen, el grass no crecerá bajo su peso y si nace nueva vida, será de seres deformados horrendamente por la radiación nuclear. Nuestra tarea es por tanto avanzar el programa político evitando que suban al poder war-mongers como Hillary Clinton y Donald Tramp. Si perdemos esta batalla política, no quedara otra alternativa que armar la guerra de clases ..  si estas existen luego de la 3ra guerra mundial..  que es lo 1ro que hay que evitar. Hugo Adan. Enero 14, 2016]
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EXTRACTS FROM THIS ART:

A very successful tech CEO once asked his economics prof during a lecture on interest rates in his university days “could interest rates ever go negative?”. The professor’s answer was: “No.”, “it has to be a positive number….”.
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However lately I have been hearing and reading things that put this comfortable  expectation of central bankster boots stomping on my face forever, into doubt. It might end up being a lot worse than that.
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People are lot smarter than I think that rates can not be normalized in our lifetimes.  Kyle Bass for instance .  Listen him https://youtu.be/dY-F-aGFyt4  It could be that once a financial market hits the zero bound in interest rates, it’s like crossing the event horizon of a black hole – there is no going back, not even light can escape it.
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When I looked at the chart of the Fed funds rate, I was struck with the foreboding flatline pattern that is ZIRP:


Looking at Japan (who’s been trying to suppress interest rates and inflate their way out of this for 30+ years) it looks the same (just longer):


And for artistic symmetry, here’s an echo-cardiogram of a patient who died on the operating table (He was a computer programmer that realized he’d coded a divide-by-zero error into the firmware for a nuclear reactor near his home town).


Notice the similarities?  The “financial pulse” of the economy (that being the price of money) has flatlined. Notwithstanding the faux-rate-hike of December, since the market reactions since then make it clear:

  • The Fed cannot undertake four more rate hikes this year
  • As Zerohedge reported, odds are favouring a rate cut at the next meeting on Jan 27th are currently implied at 8% – with the accompanying odds of another hike come at …zero.
Now it’s time to examine how these policies go beyond being mere economic abstractions and impact us in the real world:
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#1 Financialization Trumps Real Economic Activity
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The reality is all gains are made through financialization and thus the participants in those gains are confined to those who are in a position to play that game: well connected banksters, hedge funds, private equity funds and VC’s.
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The ostensible reason to own a publicly traded equity historically was to participate in a share of the profits, traditionally distributed via dividends.
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Such companies aren’t in business to actually earn anything. They create value for their backers and shareholders via serial funding rounds, doing whatever it takes to gobble up market share, including operating at a loss for extended periods, if not their entire lifespans.
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Last year, both Amazon and Google entered our market as direct competitors as well. Do I feel massively outgunned? I do. So does everybody. Everybody that is, who isn’t relying on hot money and participating in the manic game of liquidity-events-as-a-business-model.
Which brings us to:
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#2 Absolute Dependence on Intervention
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Now it’s all about “The Fed Put” and the utterances of central bankers. .. Market participants don’t do fundamental analysis anymore. Why bother? It doesn’t matter what the fundamentals are because if a microscopic number of appointed committee members (a few dozen worldwide?) decide that the fundamentals (a.k.a “reality”) won’t suit the agenda, they’ll simply issue some policy to override it. That’s why we’re here in the rabbit hole.

#3 War on Cash
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After the current round of central bank initiatives fail, the next logical step will be to target money velocity and discourage any uninvested bank balances. This would imply that negative rates won’t just be a matter between the money center banks and the Fed window, it’ll creep into depositor accounts (which has already started happening in Europe)
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Is the war on cash real? Aside from getting perp-walked for withdrawing it (above) or having any cash on your possession confiscated by police under civil asset forfeiture debacles, I notice a couple of data points that have me wondering if Big Institutional Money (Inc.) also sees the writing on the wall…
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One of the largest ATM manufacturers in the world (NCR) has been trying in vein to sell itself off, finally securing an investment from Blackstone ($820M in preferred shares) to “accelerate the company’s transformation into an integrated software and services company. ” Translation: “We’re pivoting the hell out of ATMs”.
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Thus any form of currency which can preserve it’s buying power and has no counter-party risk will be anathema to the central planners.

#4 Result: The Two-Tier Society

Any independent businesses, who choose eschew financialization find themselves at a competitive disadvantage, unable to operate at the same scale as the consolidated giants, many of which don’t even have to earn actual operating profits in order to reward their backers (mainly investment banks and various funds), it’s a pretty lopsided fight.
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The scenario unfolding is one where wealth is increasingly sucked from the wider base of an economy and society (formerly known as “the middle class” and “small business”) into what I call “the capstone class”, that much smaller, well connected cabal on top that directly benefits from credit creation and enjoys the fruits of the market distortions now playing out.
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The “benefits of capitalism” are extolled from the top, but the aforementioned dynamics insulate them from the vagaries of true competition, meanwhile the base of the pyramid is increasingly entrained with a perverse disenchantment of so-called “free markets” that is making soft-socialism increasingly palatable.
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This is understandable: the game is hopelessly rigged against the middle class, and the blame is unfailingly laid at the feet of “runaway free markets”. It’s no wonder the masses will repudiate so-called “capitalism” and seek to band together under various collectivist mechanisms as a survival mechanism.
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Being “rich” will be disdained and redistribution applauded. .. In other words, it’ll be “capitalism at the top / socialism for the serfs” – a bifurcated society where the “haves” are the equity holders of all the wealth and the have nots end up holding the bag with all the debt.
More on the unfolding two-tier society (a.k.a “The Great Bifurcation”) in another post.
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Now What?
“What can I do?” which are fairly consistent:
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Get out of debt
But, if interest rates are truly trapped below at or near zero bound, why would you? Unless you were being punished for saving the money, then maybe it does make sense to liquidate your debt after all. 
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Own gold.
Precious metals would not escape a “war on cash”. Americans are up in arms because “Obama wants your guns”. I think what’s more likely to happen is that Hillary, will come after your gold. And nobody will care. .. 
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The only staples of advice I could offer is:
  • Kick any addictions you might have
  • Watch less television, read more books
  • Diversify geopolitically – own land, businesses and passports in different localities.
Everybody is being forced to play a game against “Mr Global” (not my phrase). If somebody comes up with a defense mechanism that preserves wealth under negative rates, cash verbotten, no gold, capital-controlled zero-yield economy, that sidesteps the game, they will simply change the rules to make whatever that is unprofitable or retroactively illegal. That’s where we’re at. Sorry.
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FANGs, Dow Enter Correction, Tesla Tumbles. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/16: But they said "never sell" - FANTAsy stocks are in trouble with FANGs down 11.5% year-to-date and Tesla plunging over 17% since the holidays... the last pillar of US equity market strength has officially broken...
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Sell The F*… Rip: Day 4. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2016: The market is open, and we are selling.


Why has STFR become the new BTFD? Thank JPM: [La mas grande mafia especuladora responde..]
Our view is that the risk-reward for equities has worsened materially. In contrast to the past 7 years, when we advocated using the dips as buying opportunities, we believe the regime has transitioned to one of selling any rally. Yes, stocks had a rough time most recently, and some of the tactical indicators, such as Bull-Bear at -16 which is at the bottom of its trading range, argue for a short-term respite. Clearly, equities are unlikely to keep falling in a straight line, with periodic rebounds likely. However, we believe that one should be using any bounces as selling opportunities.
[ Lo que yo quiero ver es el sorbete que le romperá la joroba al camello. O en spanglish:  la gota que derramará el agua del vaso. Ya están jorobando demasiado.. y no quieren beber del vaso que polucionaron o envenenaron. Que se vayan todos ..los de las finanzas mafiosas .. o al paredón.]
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More Strategists Throw In The Towel: "Things Will Only Get Worse". Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2016.:  As Bloomberg notes this morning, citing independent Treasury strategist Marty Mitchell, "our concern is that things will only get worse (effects of commodity super-cycle, bankruptcies, debt defaults, hedge fund redemption/failures, global economic slowdown, equity weakness, global debt deleveraging, etc, etc) before they get better."
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 'Slumlord' Buffett's "Disturbing Business Model" To Be Probed By Feds. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2016. :  In response to a question about an earlier Seattle Times story saying that Clayton trapped borrowers into unaffordable loans on depreciating homes. Well it seems the billionaire will need to send some more donations in as yesterday, four members of Congress sent a joint letter demanding an investigation into predatory practices at Warren Buffett’s mobile home unit Clayton Homes.

[ Hace tiempo debieron investigar y poner en la cárcel a estos grandes billonarios mafiosos.]
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Frontrunning: January 14. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2016
  • Islamic State launches militant assault on Indonesia's capital (Reuters)
  • Three winners emerge in $1.6 billion Powerball jackpot (Reuters)
  • European Stocks Tumble, Credit Markets Weaken on Growth Concern (BBG)
  • Stocks and commodity currencies floored by new oil plunge (Reuters)
  • China Bear Market Looms as PBOC Fails to Stop Flight to Safety (BBG)
  • Anxious phone calls, tense moments before Iran's Supreme Leader okayed U.S. sailors' release (Reuters)
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"Fundamentals Don't Matter Right Now, It's Panic On The Way Down," Trader Warns. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2016: We’re experiencing wealth-destruction due to asset-price dynamics alone. The negative moves will stop only when excess leverage is trimmed and not just when prices return to “fair value.”
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Global Markets Slide, US Futures Wipe Out Overnight Gains In Volatile Session. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2016: European shares tumbled, wiping out gains from a two-day rally, Asian stocks slid and the cost of insuring corporate debt rose as investor concern over global growth prospects resurfaced. U.S. equity-index futures pared gains of as much as 0.9 percent. Government bonds rose, with yields falling to records in Japan and China amid anxiety over the world economy. U.S. crude prices stabilized after dropping below $30 a barrel on Tuesday to touch the lowest since 2003 as Iran moved closer to boosting exports.
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POLITICS

EMAILS PROVE HILLARY KNEW LIBYAN REBELS WERE CONDUCTING ETHNIC CLEANSING, SUPPORTED THEM ANYWAY Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2016. The tragic irony of all this is that Hillary Clinton led the charge for a war in Libya based on a claim of a potential massacre in Benghazi. The massacre in Benghazi never occurred (and was likely overblown), but real ethnic cleansing and massacres did occur when the US and NATO empowered the Libyan rebels to overthrow Gaddafi and use their weapons beyond the war zone. Today, Libya is a failed state infested with the Islamic State and other Islamic terrorist groups thanks to Clinton and friends. Quite a liberation. [ Hilary’s immoral inefficiency  ]
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Ron Paul Warns: "Watch The Petrodollar". Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2016: "The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros. The sooner the better."
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"Willing Idiots" & Geopolitical Instability. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2016. : Periods of transition between “rising powers” and “declining powers” have been described in terms of the so-called Thucydides Trap, when fear within a static or declining power (historically, Athens) of a rising power (historically, Sparta) makes war seemingly inevitable. The phenomenon today applies not only to the China-U.S. dynamic - as has been widely remarked - but to the Middle Eastern imbalance, the “north-south” imbalance, and so on. Accompanying this sliding vertical scale of strategic power balance is the sliding horizontal scale of population volatility and movement, characterized by the breakdown of the Westphalian nation-state concept.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH


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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH


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EE.UU. Lágrimas. David Brooks
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ALC. Una nueva mediática para la Unión Suramericana. Víctor Pablo Castellanos
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ARG. No llores por ti, Argentina. Eduardo Montes de Oca
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PRESS TV


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US, Saudi ties remain strong: Kerry  [ Este no les vende discursos .. vende logos.. how much he gets? .. I guess more than Hillary. ]
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