martes, 13 de octubre de 2015

OCT 13 15 SIT EC Y POL



OCT 13 15 SIT EC Y POL








ZERO HEDGE

Las Vegas is buzzing ahead of tonight's rumble-in-the-jungle between Bernie and The Battle-axe.

[ Referee & # of contenders against Sanders.. definitely a sided debate.. A BATTLE-AXE  that couln’t chop Barnie’s head . HE WON. This event left clear idea on the way democracy works here.. like a gang waiting for their victim in the corner of a streetEven though Sanders won & said to the nation that they wanted to hear from him ... The worse of Hillary was her laugh at the end of the event .. the same laugh that she showed  in Libya when Ghadafy  was brutally killed  by jihadists  .. America no es Libya and we remember her inhuman laugh of hate & stupid supremacism ... this time her laugh kill herself  & buried  her aspiration to the presidency..  We don’t need this type of oligarchs in the White House .. we already have them .. Enough is enough. …The chart below is more valid now: SANDERS  IS THE RIGHT LEADER FOR AMERICA ]  

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Who won?  SANDERS BY A LANDSLIDE...

Check  Polls..   1- Drudge...



ACCORDING TO CNN


IN SEARCHES  & TWITTER .. THE SAME.. SANDER IS THE WINNER OF THE 1ST DEBATE
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[ There  is a possibility for human disaster… I hope MAD prevails over military stupidity ]



The stage is being set for World War III, but most Americans are completely and totally oblivious to all of this because they are so wrapped up in their own little worlds. Most Americans still seem to assume that the Russians and the Chinese are our "friends" and that any type of conflict between major global powers is impossible. Well, the truth is that conflict has already begun in Ukraine and Syria, and tensions are rising with each passing day. It won’t happen next week or next month, but we are on the road to World War III.

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[ FACTS:  1- many of the milennials didn’t finish grad studies, rate of flanking is big, most because tuition raise. 2- Once they finish.. there is not job market for them to use their new knowledge… condemning to wk in poor-pay-part-time jobs.. the most optimistic STAT said that only 40% get access to decent job.. So, to think on their retirement is a way of diverting attention to current problems  ]


As Allianz latest survey notes, 61% of all middle-class Americans, across all income levels included in the survey, admit "they are not sacrificing 'a lot' to save for retirement," which is a major problem as, assuming 2% inflation (the Fed's current target) when millennials enter retirement, they will need to withdraw about $270,000 per year from their retirement plans.
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[ Wrong assumption: Oil is not the main reason for RU to smash the jihadists … if oil were, the focus should be in the one in Iran .. So that is not the reason for RU to support Siria .. the issue is geo-political & specially the uses from NATO of these jihadists mercenaries .. to terrorize the world .. specially Russia since many of them have been recruited ind Islamic states of Russia.. ]

.. now, tensions over Syria threaten to undermine the two countries' energy relationship. Thus, now, tensions over Syria threaten to undermine the two countries' energy relationship. Thus, the Nord Stream line to Germany - the capacity of which is set to double - has now become more important than ever for Gazprom.  to Germany - the capacity of which is set to double - has now become more important than ever for Gazprom. 

 [ Not evidence that the Nord Stream line to Germany  has been affected by RU plane fighters against jihadists. Not evidence that Gazprom want to control such oil. Not even evidence that Germany priority is the oil already in work .. to say that  “now, tensions over Syria threaten to undermine the two countries' energy relationship”.  This is simply anti-RU distortion crusade from the US-UK  ]
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Market Expectations Of A Stock Market Crash Have Never Been Higher.  S- by Tyler Durden on 10/13/2015

With VIX collapsing 10 days straight (for the first time since October 2010), one might be forgiven for thinking "everything is awesome." However, as always, the real news is in the nuance that the mainstream often misses. As VIX has plunged (complacency about 'normal' risk), Skew (which measures extreme tail risk) has exploded to its highest ever...

 [ El “sentanazo” esta cerca, muy cerca. Que hacer?  Comprar un “big frezer” y llenarlo de comida.. o ahorrar los dólares que tenemos? … Cantar la tomada mexicana no alivia nada, pero vale recordarla: “ya se cayó el arbolito donde dormia el pavo real… ahora dormirá en el suelo … como cualquiera animal” .. Todo el mundo va a sufrir “el sentanazo”  y mas aun si hay guerra nuclear “cuando los elefantes se pelean.. es el grass el que sufre.. el pueblo” dice un proverbio africano.. la guerra crearía un inmenso caos .. todos tomarían sus armas para ajustarle cuentas a los ricos .. un pandemonio a escala global .. “everything is awesome.. NO WAY:  everything is ugly .. seria la ley del dia ]
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[ Los “pobres del mundo” los tienen ya en la mira .. adonde huirían los ricos?.. difícil, muy difícil ]

“Credit Suisse is out with the latest edition of its Global Wealth report and although the results are not entirely surprising, they are worth highlighting. Three standouts: i) the rise in the value of financial assets is most certainly contributing to an increase in global inequality, ii) dollar strength led to the first decline in total global wealth (which fell by $12.4 trillion to $250.1 trillion) since 2007-2008, iii) 0.7% of the world's population own nearly half of the world's wealth while the bottom 71% of the population own just 3%.”
ESTA ES LA PIRAMIDE QUE CAUSA  EL CRASH.. o RECESION MUNDIAL:

SOLO LOS POBRES.. ORGANIZADOS.. SABEN COMO INVERTIRLA
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[ Un milagro está  ocurriendo … los ciegos empiezan a ver! .. y no es milagro de dios.. ese ciego no ve ]

Once you understand we’re on a long term downward path, also both in life and in finance, and you’re not exclusively looking at short term gains, it all sort of falls into place. Of course, the entire global economy has been hanging together with strands of duct tape for decades now, but hey, it looks good as long as you don’t take a peek behind the facade, right?
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[ el martillo de la indecencia neoliberal is tormenting  us ]

The NY Fed's Consumer Expectatiopns Survey hamers the nail home that all is not well in America. Away from inflation expectations dropping and earnings expectations tumbling, household spending growth expectations have plunged to record lows.
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[ El “Mal de todos.. es consuelo de tontos” .. el “so what” que importa eso.. esta llegando a su final .. La rebelión de los Mercados Emergentes (EM) se aproxima y rápido si se anuncia el rate-hike]

Here extracts from this article

Welcome to Reflexivity 101.
According to Bank of America clients, while the "tail risk" of a China recession has receded somewhat, the bigger threat of a wholesale EM debt crisis is still out there. Which really is the same trade: a Chinese/EM collapse.

In other words, the threat of an imminent EM crisis is looming in everyone's mind, and yet nobody is really concerned or even short EMs, because they think that "everyone else" is short EM - so it is best to just stay long EM for the inevitable squeeze because everyone knows one has to do the opposite of what the (alleged) herd does.
Meanwhile nobody is actually short Emerging Markets!

And that is why despite the ongoing collapse in emerging markets, and the deterioration in China, stocks today are higher, because while the EM crisis is getting worse, "someone else" will be forced to cover, aka  

[ Is the "someone else" the FED with another QE?.. ah ah  It won’t happen .. as long as the FED say “everything is awesome”. .. If the FED admit the recession.. then public panic will mount & it will be difficult to stop it. The only option the FED have is releasing an undercover & selected (not to crook speculators) type of QE.. severely controlled .. not to damage more the emerging markets.. Perhaps it is happening now ]


[ According to The Coming Emerging-Market Debt Squeeze by Andrés ... The emerging-market debt crises of the recent past could not only happen again today; they could happen on a much larger scale than in the past; said Andres Velasco from  http://www.project-syndicate.org/

“Consider the following scenario, one that has played out time and again in emerging-market countries. Local banks and firms go on a borrowing binge and pile up dollar-denominated debt – debt is considered perfectly sustainable, as long as the local currency is strong. Suddenly, something (an increase in United States interest rates, a drop in commodity prices, a domestic political conflict) causes the local currency to drop in value against the dollar. The debt burden, measured in domestic currency, is now much higher. Some borrowers miss interest payments; others are unable to roll over principal. Financial mayhem ensues. [entonces la mutilación criminal financiera  o crisis” ocurre, se da]

This is how the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, the Mexican Tequila crisis of 1994, the Asian debt crisis of 1997, and the Russian crisis of 1998 unfolded. It was also how the financial crisis of 2008-2009 transmitted itself to emerging markets. Every time, borrowers and lenders claimed to have learned their lesson.

Not only could it happen again today; it could happen on a much larger scale than in the past. Taking advantage of ultra-low interest rates in advanced countries, emerging-market banks and firms have been borrowing like never before. A recent paper by the Bank of International Settlements shows that since the global financial crisis, outstanding dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the US has risen by half, from $6 trillion to $9 trillion.
The bulk of that debt is in Asia, with China alone accounting for approximately $1 trillion. Other big dollar borrowers include Brazil (over $300 billion) and India ($125 billion). Countries such as Malaysia, South Africa, and Turkey, plus Latin America’s more financially open economies, also have rising foreign-currency debts.

Yes, the almighty dollar is not as mighty as it was before the US Federal Reserve surprised markets with a more-dovish-than-expected communiqué earlier this month. But, given the likely interest-rate differential between the US and other advanced economies (particularly the eurozone and Japan), together with a more robust US economic recovery, an era of dollar strength – and, almost by definition, weak emerging-market currencies – is here to stay. 

[ not anymore, the US eco is weak now]

This likely means trouble for the firm that borrowed in dollars to build a shopping mall in São Paulo or Kuala Lumpur, and now must devote a much larger share of its revenues in depreciated real or ringgit to service its debt.

How did we get here? Once upon a time, conventional wisdom  [ whose? ] maintained that curbing governments’ appetite for debt would put an end to over-borrowing, because private agents would know to act prudently and weigh the costs and benefits of one more dollar of debt.

Not even stern University of Chicago economists believe that anymore. The fiscal and debt position of many emerging economies (though not of Argentina, Venezuela, and other poster children for mismanagement) is much stronger than it once was. But private-sector CFOs seem determined to prove that they can borrow as lavishly as their public-sector colleagues once did.
Conventional wisdom also once held that dollar borrowing binges occur only in countries with fixed exchange rates, with the central bank de facto insuring borrowers against currency risk. Today, most emerging-market economies have (or at least pretend to have) floating exchange rates, and yet locals continue to borrow heavily in foreign currency. [CHECK FULL ART IN MY WEB . or press The Coming Emerging-Market Debt Squeeze by Andrés ... ]
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"Global trade is also declining at an alarming pace. According to the latest data available in June the year on year change is -8.4%. To find periods of equivalent declines we only really find recessionary periods. This is an interesting point. On one metric we are already in a recession."

[ Not.. until officially Ms Yellen announced.. then the huge public panic will raise.. She won’t do it ]
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[ This comic title describe the real dilemma of the FED: SAY OR NOT TO SAY IT that we are in recession.  If say, means 2 things:  1- that interest rates will be raised , and 2- a huge revolution will break out worldwide against the raise of sovereign debt . In other words, this financial massacre or “war declaration” will be retaliated by all emerging markets and bye bye the dollar existence & the empire.. & welcome to the radical change of neoliberalism .  So, don’t buy neither the fear nor the horror.. Buy this:  “Peace is not the absence of conflict”  & get ready for it  ]

 
Global central banks have made a Faustian bargain with our economic soul selling our future for a false stability today. At this stage, absent continuous intervention, a large deflationary crash in the global economy is inevitable. The next Lehman brothers will be a country. The real ‘shadow convexity’ will not come from markets but political unrest or war. Peace is not the absence of conflict. Global Central Banks have set up the greatest long volatility trade in history. Buy the fear and you will be protected from the horror.
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As WSJ reports, all of the proverbial fat that can be trimmed has already been trimmed in terms of layoffs and capex. This means further cost savings will have to come from salary cuts because going forward, cutting jobs altogether would imperil companies’ ability to operate.  

[ Don’t cut salaries. Force the companies to compensate well the layout labor. In other words: fry the companies that pollute & kill people’s consumer-water.  Fry it or stew it in his own juice ]
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/13/2015 - 07:48
  • Playboy to Drop Nudity as Internet Fills Demand (NYT)
  • Stock futures fall on weak China trade data (Reuters)
  • Any Hall is down 20% YTD (WSJ)
  • Global Stocks Slide With Metals After Chinese Imports Tumble (BBG)
  • Clinton's tack to the left to be on display in Democratic debate (Reuters)
  • Switzerland Said to Impose 5% Leverage Ratio on Big Banks (BBG)
  • AB InBev, SABMiller brew up $100 billion deal (Reuters)
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[ The recession crash is coming soon. Raise interest rate will make it worse ]

“For the past two weeks, the thinking probably went that if only the biggest short squeeze in history and the most "whiplashy" move since 2009 sends stocks high enough, the global economy will forget it is grinding toward recession with each passing day (and that the Fed are just looking for a 2-handle on the S&P and a 1-handle on the VIX before resuming with the rate hike rhetoric). Unfortunately, that's not how it worked out, and overnight we got abysmal economic data first from China, whose imports imploded, then the UK, which posted its first deflation CPI print since April, and finally from Germany, where the ZEW expectation surve tumbled from 12.1 to barely positive, printing at just 1.9 far below the 6.5 expected.”

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