martes, 13 de octubre de 2015

OCT 12 SIT EC y POL



OCT 12 SIT EC y POL


ZERO HEDGE  


8 Cities That Have Replaced Columbus Day With Indigenous Peoples Day. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/12/2015  [ This is the America that I love .. my America ]

Here’s the rundown of U.S. cities that decided a brutal imperialist might not be an appropriate figure to celebrate:
1. Albuquerque, New Mexico
2. Lawrence, Kansas
3. Portland, Oregon
4. St. Paul, Minnesota
5. Bexar County, Texas
6. Anadarko, Oklahoma
7. Olympia, Washington
8. Alpena, Michigan

These eight cities follow Minneapolis and Seattle in creating official recognition for Indigenous Peoples Day. Oklahoma City attempted to pass a similar measure unsuccessfully in September, but plan to try again on October 13th — the day after Columbus Day.
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The world is beginning to realize that a seachange in world affairs occured on September 28 when President Putin of Russia stated in his UN speech that Russia can no longer tolerate Washington’s vicious, stupid, and failed policies that have unleashed chaos, which is engulfing the Middle East and now Europe. Simply put, Washington’s impulsive use of power is a danger to America and to the world.
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The US is in decline. The US government is overloaded with debt. The US financial system is losing is dominance. And even the banking institutions themselves are losing relevance. This isn’t bad news. It’s tremendously exciting.
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Saudi Arabia Bombs Second Yemeni Wedding In A Week - At Least 23 Dead Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/12/2015

[Uk-US ashamed of appointing Saudis in the UN committee of Human Rights ]
Saudi Arabia, the recently crowned head of a UN human rights panel and close U.S. government ally, has now bombed two wedding parties in Yemen in just over a week. Yes, you read that right.
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"Now Is Not The Time To Raise Rates" China Demands The Fed Live Up To Its "Global Responsibilities". Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/12/2015 [ Rate-hike will be a US war declaration against the world ]

PBOC strengthens Yuan by most since Nov 2014
The message from China was heard loud and clear from the IMF meetings in Lima: The United States [Fed] "should assume its global responsibilities" given the dollar's status as reserve currency; "now is not the time to raise rates."
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The Monetary Policy Dead-End. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/12/2015
[ Mas claro ni el agua. “raising interest rates could have the same effect as pressing the nuclear button” . It will be irresponsible in the part of US .. it will raise sovereign debt . Emerging markets will react immediately  .. declaring it over & move away from the dollar ]

“The Fed is aware that raising interest rates too fast and too high could have the same effect as pressing the nuclear button. The whole system could collapse and it cannot be taken for granted that the central banks would be able to extinguish the fire this time.”
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/12/2015 - 07:47
  • Central Bankers Urge Fed to Get On With Interest-Rate Increase (WSJ)
  • Bond Market Casualties Leading Biggest S&P 500 Revival Since '11 (BBG)... on hopes of more easing
  • U.S. Patrols to Test China’s Pledge on South China Sea Islands (WSJ)
  • Merkel Under Fire: German Conservatives Deeply Split over Refugees (Spiegel)
  • Assault Weapons Ban Before U.S. Supreme Court (NBC)
  • Hedge Funds Are Playing 'Dangerous Game' With Copper (BBG)
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Because the "train and equip" program was such a public embarrassment, the Pentagon had to come up with a new idea to assist Syria’s “freedom fighters” now that they are fleeing under bombardment by the Russian air force only to be cut down by Hezbollah. The newest plan: helicopter ammo. No, really. The US has now resorted to dropping "tons" of ammo into the middle of nowhere and hoping the “right” people find it.

[  It doesn’t matter the amount Ammo the US give to them … there won’t be a jihadist to pick it up .. snipers & bombs are waiting for them .. Everything the US does in this conflict is simply ridiculous.. Thanks for the bait-trap .. said one Russian .. The US should stop these stupidities & get out of the zone ]
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[ La carabina de Ambrosio esta lista para hacer ruido –un pedo más cielo- ( “don’t throw stones to a glass ceiling -no tires piedras al techo de vidrio” nor stinky furts in a closed room.. , dicen los refranes populares).  Lo que busca Obama es levantar la moral caída de la mafia Clinton en el proceso eleccionario actual .. sigue perdiendo adeptos en favor de Bernie Sanders .. IF BERNIE ANNOUNCE IN THE DEBATE TOMORROW THAT BEN CARSON IS HIS POSSIBLE PARTNER.. la mafia Clinbton will be completely buried . Asi visto el panorama, la propuesta OB que ya fracaso antes ..seguirá fracasando ]

.. the ubiquitous call for gun control/prohibition:  the Supreme Court's decision this week on whether it will hear a challenge to a suburban Chicago law banning firearms commonly known as assault weapons seems more critical than ever. As NBC News notes, if the court agrees to hear the case, it would cast a shadow over similar bans in seven states; but declining to take it up would boost efforts to impose such bans elsewhere.
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As RT and others report, "a major fire broke out in a deposit in the Chinese city of Tianjin. The fire was caused by a leak of alcohol"  [ leak of alcohol ?? .. come on.. that is a fairy tale .. To me this is either:..]

[ Fire-time .. OR mercenaries ?.  .. If the 1st.. we’re learning what to do with crook companies …  If ISIS mercen.. paid by CIA.. burned them too .. cuando llueve todos se mojan y más si no hay paraguas ]
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[ EL IMF en el G20 de Lima decidió buscarle 5 patas al gato : the hidden debt to China.. Todo el mundo sabe que el problema deuda .. es fundamentamente la deuda soberana comprada y vendida al mejor postor por el capital buitre (or vulture capital) que el Gbno americano apoya .. Ellos son los que crearon el problema deuda en Argentina y en todos los pueblos del sur … Ese es el gato de 4 patas que hay que investigar …Desviar la atención a China y la deflación global –que ellos no crearon y sépase además que China no es la economía que está cayendo, como se sugiere aquí, es la del US la que se va de pique. China es en cambio un mercado que podría dinamizar el Mdo mundial si se lo limpia de la corrupción financiera del Oeste- . Por qué el IMF distorsiona la verdad y lanza un velo de impunidad al fraude de las mafias financieras del norte. Por qué hace esto Ms Lagarde? .. solo hay 2 explicaciones:  1ro, porque es sirvienta del Imperio americano, siempre lo fue  .. evidencias sobran .. y 2do, porque quizá también está envuelta en este negocio sucio.. Hay que investigarla.. hay que obligarla a abrir sus cuentas bancarias.. de donde salieron los millones que tiene? .. no le cayeron del cielo, es cierto.. ni del infierno por las donaciones del diablillo Soros. .. Es posible que tampoco vengan de su “honesto” trabajo en el IMF. ]


Here a brief extract from this art from http://www.zerohedge.com/

As central bankers and finance ministers from around the globe gather for the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings here in Peru, the emerging world is rife with symptoms of increasing economic vulnerability. Gone are the days when IMF meetings were monopolized by the problems of the advanced economies struggling to recover from the 2008 financial crisis. Now, the discussion has shifted back toward emerging economies, which face the risk of financial crises of their own.

While no two financial crises are identical, all tend to share some telltale symptoms: a significant slowdown in economic growth and exports, the unwinding of asset-price booms, growing current-account and fiscal deficits, rising leverage, and a reduction or outright reversal in capital inflows. To varying degrees, emerging economies are now exhibiting all of them.

The turning point came in 2013, when the expectation of rising interest rates in the United States and falling global commodity prices brought an end to a multi-year capital-inflow bonanza that had been supporting emerging economies’ growth. China’s recent slowdown, by fueling turbulence in global capital markets and weakening commodity prices further, has exacerbated the downturn throughout the emerging world.
These challenges, while difficult to address, are at least discernible. But emerging economies may also be experiencing another common symptom of an impending crisis, one that is much tougher to detect and measure: hidden debts.  So the great question today is where emerging-economy debts are hiding. ]
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TWO STORIES ON INFLATION OR DEFLATION IN RECESSION: basics

KEY TERMS:
Recession  A recession is a general downturn in any economy. A recession is associated with high unemployment, slowing gross domestic product, and high inflation. 
Inflation  means a sustained increase in the aggregate or general price level in an economy. Los precios suben y los salarios o ingresos no. Hay productos en el Mdo pero el dinero no alcanza para comprarlos.
Deflation  is characterized by a contraction or shrinking purchasing power. It is a condition where prices are falling but there is a corresponding decrease in employment, total output, and thus income. Los precios pueden ser los mismos, incluso bajar pero no hay capacidad de compra porque no hay empleos ni ingresos ni ahorros. A general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit. Deflation can be caused also by a decrease in government, personal or investment spending.
Difference between inflation & deflation . Inflation means that the value of money decreases, whereas deflation means that the value of money increases.  Inflation occurs when the price of goods and services rise, while deflation occurs when those prices decrease. The balance between the two economic conditions is delicate, and an economy can quickly swing from one situation to the other.
Stagflation is an economic cycle in which there is a high rate of both inflation and stagnation. Inflation occurs when the general level of prices in an economy increases. Stagnation occurs when the production of goods and services in an economy slows down or even starts to decline. Los mercados empiezan a estar  vacíos y los bolsillos también.
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STORY # 1  FROM  THE BANK OF AMERICA


THE FED (leading all reflexivity nightmares), is realizing the trap it has set for itself with 7 year of ZIRP and QE, two policies which on their own would have boosted much needed inflation (because a world drowning in $200 trillion in debt can only survive if the debt is inflated away, otherwise mass defaults are imminent), and yet has seen inflation expectations recently tumble to lows not seen since the financial crisis.
The reason for this pervasive global deflationary tide was explained by Bank of America in very simple terms, or rather letters, as follows: Deflation = Debt plus Disruption plus Demographics.
To wit: The cyclical fallout from the Great Financial Crisis and the secular deflationary “D’s” of excess Debt, tech Disruption, aging Demographics have been the major catalysts for deflation.
  • Disruption: Technological innovation and disruption are driving many goods & service sector prices lower (rent & health care are two important exceptions); extending human life and the propensity to save; fostering wage and job insecurity.
  • Demographics: The size of the working population of the developed world peaked in 2011 and will fall from 833 million to 799 million by 2025, putting downward pressure on potential growth and inflation (Chart 3). And by 2050, the world’s “Silver Generation” will increase by 885 million people, many of whom will save more in anticipation of old age.
  • And of course record Debt: "Minimal deleveraging since the GFC and a large debt overhang remain impediments to nominal growth; global debt as a % of GDP actually rose from 162% in 2001 to 211% in 2013, an all-time high."
Incidentally, it is the last bullet, runaway debt, which has been the most insidious outcome of global "all out" QE. Over the weekend Macquarie explained the implications of this vicious loop very simply:
  • The declining velocity of money requires an ever rising level of monetary stimulus, which further depresses velocity of money, and requiring even further QEs. Also as countries compete in a diminishing pool by discounting currencies, global demand compresses, as current account surpluses in these countries rise not because of exports growing faster than imports but because imports decline faster than exports. This implies less demand for the global economy.
Putting all this together with the failure of central banks to generate stable and benign inflation using existing "unconventional" means, is precisely why over the weekend BofA also made a call for a "massive policy shift in 2016", which in not so many words, was just the latest call for helicopter money, joining other banks such as Citigroup and Deutsche Bank asking for the same.
Finally, what does the end of QE and the start of something "bigger" mean?
We believe that the path of least resistance would be to effectively ban capitalism and by-pass banking and capital markets altogether. We gave this policy change several names (such as “Cuba alternative”, “British Leyland”) but the essence of the new form of QE would be using central banks and public instrumentalities to directly inject “heroin into blood stream” rather than relying on system of incentives to drive investor behaviour
And with that, the methadone clinic has officially given up, and is about to tell the long-suffering drug-addict that time to mainline "monetary and fiscal heroin" has come.  We expect the mainstream media narrative to shortly shift to one of managing terminal expectations.
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Author: Gervaise Heddle, heddle@bletchleyeconomics.com

  • The conventional view held by most economists and market commentators is that the rate of inflation falls in a recession. In this week’s post we will challenge the conventional view and discuss the circumstances that could lead to accelerating rates of inflation during a period of recession.
  • At the end of this article, we will discuss why inflation, not deflation, might be the surprise outcome of the next recession in the United States.
  • Intuitively, the notion that inflation falls during a recession seems quite reasonable. After all, the first lesson we learn in microeconomics is that if demand for a good weakens, then the price of that good will fall. So why not extrapolate this idea to macroeconomics? Why can’t we simply assume that inflation will slow if the economy begins to contract?
  • The problem is that a microeconomic level, basic supply and demand analysis assumes that the market value of money is constant. At a macroeconomic level, we simply can not make this assumption. Rather, we need to think about the impact a recession has on expectations regarding the long-term future of society and how changes in those expectations impact the value of money.
  • In a recession there are two opposing forces that act upon the price level, one is deflationary in nature, the other is inflationary.
  • The deflationary force is the impact of the recession on aggregate demand and the resultant fall in the market value of goods.
  • Note the use of the term “market value”, not “price”. The price level is a relativemeasure of market value: just because the market value of the basket of goods falls does not mean that the price of the basket of goods falls.
  • The inflationary force is the potential negative impact of the recession on long-term expectations and, consequently, a fall in the market value of money.
  • Typically, a recession is accompanied by some moderation in expectations regarding the long-term economic future of society. If people become more pessimistic about the long-term prospects of society, then the market value of money will fall and, all else remaining equal, the price level will rise.
  • While the nature of the deflationary force is simple and obvious, the nature of the inflationary force is far more nuanced and complex. The final outcome in a recession depends upon whether the deflationary force is stronger or weaker than the inflationary force.
  • If the deflationary force is stronger (if the market value of goods falls by more than the market value of money) then the rate of inflation will moderate. For example, if people believe that the recession is just a “bump in the road” that won’t damage the economy over the long term, then it is likely that the rate of inflation will fall.
  • However, if a recession badly damages confidence in the long-term prospects of society, then any decline in the market value of goods can be more than offset by a decline in the market value of money. In this scenario, the rate of inflation can accelerate markedly, particularly as economic activity begins to stabilize at lower levels.

CONCLUSION:

So, what will happen to long-term confidence and, consequently, the value of money in the next recession?
Clearly, we cannot say for certain. However, we can speculate on issues that might arise should a recession occur in the next few months.

First, it is likely that some of the structural problems that were exposed in the last recession will become issues of greater concern in the next recession.
The US government has made no progress in reducing government debt as a percentage of GDP (government debt now stands at over 100% of GDP versus only 65% at the beginning of the last recession).
Perhaps more importantly, the US government has made no progress on entitlement reform. Indeed, the CBO projects that fiscal deficits will climb as a percentage of GDP over the next twenty years, even if the US economy continues to grow at a reasonable pace.

While these structural issues remain largely unresolved, the view of The Money Enigma is that the bigger test during the next recession will be the markets confidence in the ability of policy makers to stabilize the economy.

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE US ECONOMY ENTERED RECESSION TODAY.

What would be the likely response from the Federal Reserve? Short-term interest rates are already at zero. Moreover, the Fed has made no attempt to unwind the monetary base that has quintupled since the last recession began.

The likely response from the Federal Reserve would be to embark on a new program of quantitative easing, thereby expanding the monetary base from its already unprecedented level. But would this next round of quantitative easing have the same impact as previous rounds? The law of diminishing marginal returns would suggest that it probably wouldn’t.

If the markets begin to feel that Congress and the Federal Reserve have lost control of the situation, then confidence regarding the long-term prospects of the United States could decline sharply. If this were to occur, then it is likely that the value of money would decline sharply, leading to a sudden rise in all prices as expressed in money terms and an acceleration in the rate of inflation.

THE SUBTITLES THAT FOLLOW THIS INTROD ARE:

The Price Level is a Relative Measure of Market Value
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The Impact of a Recession on the Market Value of Money
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Will the Rate of Inflation Accelerate in the Next Recession?
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SO, What will happen to long-term confidence and, consequently, the value of money in the next recession?
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Chinese Regulator Proposes Ban On High-Frequency Trading. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/12/2015 [ Regresamos al cuento de quien invento la pólvora. Y que fue 1ro el huevo o la gallina ] 

It appears Chinese authorities want to be the monopoly manipulator of their stock markets… China's Securities Regulator Commission (CSRC) has proposed limiting the use of automated trading programs in the stock market. We assume CSRC only wants to ban "selling" algos and not "spoofers" pushing stocks higher. [ Wrong  assumption : China wants to sell .. but rid of the Mafioso-"spoofers" first ]
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.. [ (Does)  the system of individual freedom and free enterprise has failed? … These critics have insisted that it is unbridled capitalism, set loose on the world, which is the source of all of our personal and society misfortunes. The political and economic crises through which the world suffers is not the crisis or failure of the free market. No, it is the crisis and failure of the interventionist-welfare state, and its anti-free market capitalist ideology.

[ If this horse has not bridle.. it cannot be controlled .. not by one man, The President..not by the entire elected figures.. why not? .. because all of them belong to the system that released the bridle to this crazy horse in the Consensus bet Demos & Rep called Washington Consensus (1985).. so THE CRAZY HORSE (REPRESENTED BY THE MAFIAS WHO PROFIT FROM FRAUD & FINANCIAL SPECULATION) IS FREE TO CREATE THE MESS WE ARE IN..THANKS TO THE SUPPORT OF THE NEOLIBERAL STATE & ITS IDEOLOGY IN FAVOR OF VULTURE CAPITALISM   THE only one who manage to put the bridle on, was FDR in 1936.. How he do it? by using the corrupted machine known as “bossism” to dismantle the previous corrupted “cronyism” in power.. In Spanish we describe this tactic as “a new nail can be used to take out the loosy, rusted & useless nail” , un clavo nuevo saca el clavo viejo que falsea en la tabla, sin afectarla. That was that FDR did in the middle of the 1st great recesssion  (1936) . His team selected from each pooling district the men that knew the voters and their problems. This “boss system” is in the nature of the American “democracy” and it was dominant from 1880s to 1940s. During this time a huge flood of immigrants came form Europa. They didn’t speak nor read English but they wanted to be represented in their towns. They didn’t like the anglo-saxon protestant “wasps”  & they select the Irish bosses, they can speak & read English but they don’t belong to the dominant culture. This boss-machine helped the different ethnic groups from Europe to get naturalization & thus mad them voters. This “boss system” known also as “spoils-system” was replaced by specialized bureaucrats when the huge immigration ended & most ethnic groups was intergrated to the system –with the exception of blacks & latinos, still ethnic minorities up to the 1950s. That was the key in the success of FDR policies against the unbridle craze horse:   the mafias who profit from fraud & financial speculation. The Glass-Stegall Act was enacted and imposed. Today this “boss-system”  known is Spanish as “clientelism” and “patronage” is a corrupted & anti-democratic way of doing politics. That is that we called “cronyism” in our time. How this system operates nowasays?   In a similar way as the “boss-system” but with emphasis in private money-making and close-doors secrecy: the super-packs. In this systema we have 3 players: (1) the owner of the money;  (2)  the agent who hide representing (1) interest but serve them openly once in power ; and (3)   the organized client inside communities, labor organizations & ethic groups. Of course independent workers matter too as voters & donors of small amounts ($500 or less).  The main public actor in this “crony-system” is the party & its leader. Is the leader –She or he- who receives the hidden donations from actor 1, and as leader is the one in charge of making fake promises to their clients & general voters, when acting as candidate. The other main public actor is the “client”, the organized voter whose “bosses” at district level  work like a “mercenary-machine” to pool  voters to the ballot box. The money received by the party-leader goes to them, to this “bossy-machine of mercenaries” and to the presstitute  that organize party debate & launch their propaganda . This is the way of buying elections in America. BUYING ELECTIONS IS WHAT IS CALLED CRONYISM, it is the opposite to democracy  and has been banned in different European countries and in India.  ] 
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[ What we are doing in the borders of China? .. defending our allies?.. We do not have allies.. we have servants & pawns to be discarded after using them …  they are not going to pay for reconstructing  America if our  country is destroyed in a nuke-war .. What is the point of bulling China?.. What if they move a destroyer or warship to our borders? .. All this doesn’t make any sense … other than spending money in the military.. money that we need to solve many problems inside. Point of departure: there won’t be nuke war between RU-China & the US-NATO .. they do not want to destroy America & we should not try to do so, it will be a MAD .. If we really plan the 1st strike, just consider 1st, that satellite-war-machine from RU-China  will respond immediately & masivelly before our missiles arrive there .. 2nd if we plan the 1st strike just start moving back our soldiers from 135 military stations abroad & bring back the staff from US embassies world-wide .. There will be a huge reaction against America worldwide, and they are easy targets. So, we should not sacrifice them.. 3rd you named .. ]
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Protests Erupt In Turkey As Government Accused Of False Flag In Weekend Suicide Blast. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/12/2015.  [No comment.. everybody  knows the role of Turkey in ISIS game ]

"There were too many wounded, tens of dead, body pieces scattered around, and people screaming. The state wasn’t able to prevent a massacre right in the middle of Ankara. Instead, it enabled it."
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Ben Carson Upsets Mainstream Media: Openly Questions Fiat Money.  by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/12/2015

 [ Ben Carson is the black swan in the dirty waters of GOP .. He should focus on black poverty & repression to them .. He should create analogies with M.L King pacifism against war & violence … If a people FRONT against the dirty couple DEMs & GOP is build .. he is a serious option to be the partner of Bernie Sanders in the aim of creating the independent option .. for real democracy in America ]

Here brief extracts of this article
Neurosurgeon-turned-Presidential candidate Ben Carson has been under attack this week by our PC-enforcers in the media. While most of the media scorn has been directed at Carson’s defense of gun ownership following last week’s shooting in Oregon – Matt O’Brien of the Washington Post slapped at Carson for flirting with the gold standard.
In an article on Friday criticizing Jeb Bush for not condemning the gold standard harshly enough (Bush only offered a timid "I don't think so" when asked whether the US should make such a move), O’Brien highlighted some surprisingly sound comments Dr. Carson made earlier this week during an interview with NPR. While discussing the nation’s current debt, Carson said:
"[T]he only reason that we can sustain that kind of debt is because of our artificial ability to print money, to create what we think is wealth, but it is not wealth, because it's based upon our faith and credit. You know, we decoupled it from the domestic gold standard in 1933, and from the international gold standard in 1971, and since that time, it's not based on anything. Why would we be continuing to do that?”
Because of views like this, O’Brien dismisses Carson as not being a “candidate of serious policy.”

[O’Brien believe himself to be the queen in the American presstitute.. he is really a simple mercenary, his voice doesn’t count in serious politics ]
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NEWS IN SPANISH


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Turquía. Atentado en Ankara, terror de Estado. Emre Öngün
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EE.UU.. Delincuentes. David Brooks.
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PRESS TV


Russian FM urges all to join info center. Tue Oct 13, 2015 The Russian foreign minister calls on all interested parties to join the Baghdad information center.
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Another US city abolishes Columbus Day. Mon Oct 12, 2015 Albuquerque has joined several other US cities to abolish Columbus Day and replace it with Indigenous Peoples Day.
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Turkey funerals turn into protest. Mon Oct 12, 2015 The funerals for the recent bombings victims in Turkey turn into anti-government protest.
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Israel behind JFK hit: American scholar. Mon Oct 12, 2015 Israel was likely one of the sponsors of the assassination of former US President John F. Kennedy, says James Henry Fetzer.
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