IRAN 3 DOC PARA ENTENDER LA FIRMA DEL DRAF del Jueves 2

IRAN 3 DOC PARA ENTENDER LA FIRMA DEL DRAF del Jueves 2 

 

INTRODUCTION  by Hugo Adan. April 2, 2015

This is a preliminary note.

Besides the DOC that I released today from zero-hedge,  we have here the US FACT SHEET RELEASED BY THE WHITE HOUSE  for US media and possible speech this night by Obama. (DOC 2) This doc contradict and contain many points not considered in the zero-hedge doc. Perhaps the intention is to portray the idea that Obama is the winner in the so called dial, that in fact is not a dial, only a draft to the deal schedule for June 30s. Obama is the winner but not in the interest of the US Nation, he is serving the interest of Netanyahu who before mock on him.

DOC 3 contains ZARIF, ROUHANI view on the  PRELIMINARY IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL, where it is stressed that this draft is just a draft so it will be submitted to debate inside IRAN and the final decision on this draft will be reached in June 30.  

The doc 1 & 4 have similar content: It is clear in both that the main concern of Iranians is the removal of economic sanctions that are preventing their development and is the cause of impoverishment of the entire nation. We will see in doc 1-4 that the main condition for a deal is the lifting of those sanctions, otherwise, a deal should not be signed.  In fact the draft was not signed at the moment of the release of the US FACT Sheet to the Press. Even if signed later on, it has temporary validity, maximum 3 months, up to June 30. 

In the Doc released by zero hedge and in doc 2 (here) is clear that the concern of the US was only the potential military uses of nuclear facilities in the region. From 42 points contained in the drat released by zero hedge only 8 deal with the Iranian concern, all the rest has to do with preventing any nuclear attack of Iran on Israel, although the fact that is Israel the one who possess nuclear bombs and nuclear missiles, and is threatening Iran with war. 

There were two contradictory objectives during this diplomatic talking, the military one emphatized by the US and the economic one (sanctions) in the part of IRAN. This explains the delays and more importantly the why they went to these dialogues (or war diplomacy, if you like). One conclussion can be reached so far: besides economic sanctions -that wont be lifted if the full draft impossed by Obama is respected- Iran is suffering the military blackmail contained in the zero-hedge Doc and in the Doc2 below. I hope Iran submit this draft to a referendum & decide on it. There is time to do it up to June 30.  

The question is if the same type of deal will be imposed on Israel. The UNSC should make clear this petition to Israel before June 30, otherwise the current draft will be sided and international security will be placed at risk if Israel uses their nuclear capacity on Iran. 

The draft should be considered so far as one step forward in the process of dismantling nuclear arms, starting with less developing countries and move forward to the big ones.

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Note:  compare this Doc below with the Doc that I published before and the Doc 2 here .. you will notice that Iran deal went from bad to worse.

IRANIAN CONSERVATIVES SAY THEY'RE GETTING A BAD DEAL. Author: Arash Karami Posted March 30, 2015 http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/03/iran-nuclear-deal-pmd-shariatmadari.html

http://nd-hugoadan.blogspot.com/2015_03_01_archive.html  

 

SUMMARY : One of Iran's well-connected conservative editors  - Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hard-line Kayhan newspaper, with close relationship with Ayatollah Ali Khameneni- said that the nuclear deal being negotiated could end Iran's ballistic missile program. That is a very bad deal because ““We will be facing a major tragedy and we will be losing one of the foundations of our military strength, which is our ballistic missiles.” 

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Six concerns have been raised by this editor to the attention of the Ayatollah Khamenei:

“First , only some of the sanctions are being removed for a nuclear [suspension] while all the sanctions should have been removed.
 
Second, [for] the Security Council sanctions remain in place.
 
Third, the suspended sanctions last an interval of six [months] to one year and the continuation of the suspension is dependent on later conditions.
 
Fourth, the Security Council resolution, which is supposed to guarantee the agreement and commitments of both sides, will fall under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, whose deals with threats to world peace and security. Accepting the resolution of Chapter 7 means that Iran accepts that its nuclear program is and was a threat against international peace and security.
 
Fifth, the deal that has been mentioned, contrary to expectations and what has been emphasized, is a two- or multi-step deal, and the responsibilities of those details have not been made clear.
Sixth, Iran’s commitments are irreversible while the P5+1 commitments are reversible.”

ONE MORE CONCERN:  

Seventh: the nuclear deal includes a new round of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) within the framework of possible military dimensions (PMD) of its nuclear program. If we accept the issue PMD means that “we have to allow IAEA inspectors to inspect our missile industry.” So, under this agreement, Iran could be asked to suspend parts of its missile program. “We will be facing a major tragedy and we will be losing one of the foundations of our military strength, which is our ballistic missiles.”  Shariatmadari suggested that later Kerry will demand the Iran be subordinated to the IAEA on PMD, that is “ a new and dangerous trap"

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IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS PRODUCE HISTORIC BREAKTHROUGH

Comprehensive deal would severely restrict Iran’s ability to make nuclear weapons for more than a decade

by Barbara Slavin. April 2, 2015

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/4/2/Iran-nuclear-talks-produce-historic-breakthrough.html

After the gloom and doom of previous days, in which negotiators blew through a March 31 deadline for a political framework imposed by the Obama administration, Thursday’s breakthrough seemed all the more sweet.

Negotiators must still finalize the provisions of the deal by June 30, when an interim accord that has been twice extended expires.

The United States, emphasized the restrictions on the Iranian NUCLEAR program while Iran stressed relief of sanctions that have crippled the Iranian economy and soured the mood of the long-suffering Iranian people.

According to A US FACT SHEET RELEASED BY THE WHITE HOUSE, Iran has agreed to:

A-cut its installed centrifuges — the machines that spin and enrich uranium — by two-thirds from about 19,000 to about 6,000, of which only 5,060 will be allowed to operate for the next 10 years.

B-Iran also agreed not to use more advanced centrifuge models for a decade.

C-For 15 years, it will not enrich uranium beyond a low level and

D-will restrict its stockpile of low-enriched uranium to 300 kilograms — not enough for a single weapon.

The fact sheet did not say how Iran would do this — whether by sending its stockpile to another country or blending it into a less risky form.

E- Iran also agreed not to enrich uranium at its facility at Fordow for 15 years, although the underground plant can be used for peaceful purposes such as making medical isotopes.

F- The Iranians, according to the fact sheet, will shut off another potential pathway to a bomb by ripping out the core of a heavy water reactor under construction at Arak and replacing it with technology that yields a smaller amount of plutonium. Iran has promised to send out spent fuel from Arak and not to build a plant to reprocess it, effectively preventing Tehran from using the method to build weapons that North Korea employed when it quit the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2003.

G-The Iranians have also agreed to intrusive inspections including access to uranium mines and mills for 25 years, and to centrifuge production sites for 20 years.

H- It accepted the Additional Protocol of the NPT — which allows for short-notice inspections — in perpetuity. These measures should make it difficult for Iran to sneak out and build a nuclear weapon covertly.

It was left to Iran’s U.S.-educated foreign minister, Javad Zarif, to lay out 

What Iran gets in return.

Switching effortlessly from Farsi to English, Zarif told a horde of exhausted journalists in Switzerland that all previous United Nations Security Council resolutions condemning the Iranian program and imposing sanctions on Tehran would be lifted, along with European Union sanctions and U.S. so-called secondary sanctions that inhibit other countries from normal trade with Iran.

I- The U.S. fact sheet said a new U.N. resolution would be passed that maintains restrictions on conventional arms transfers to Iran, including sanctions related to ballistic missiles.

J- U.S. officials said sanctions relief would be phased in as Iran implements its part of the deal.

K- Among the issues not discussed in detail on Thursday was how Iran would satisfy the international community’s concerns about possible past military-related dimensions of its program, and how that might be tied to full sanctions relief.

Zarif called the framework a win-win deal that had “stopped a cycle that was not in the interest of anyone.”

President Barack Obama, speaking from the White House Rose Garden on a lovely spring afternoon, pronounced the framework “a good deal” that would make the world — including nervous U.S. allies in the Middle East — safer.

Now both sides will have to convince critics inside and outside their countries that they are right. That will not be an easy task.

Netanyahu has infuriated Obama by campaigning relentlessly against what the Israeli leader has called a bad deal that threatens Israel’s security.

As for Congress, it is on a Passover-Easter break, giving the administration time to make its case to individual members before April 14, when the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is scheduled to vote on legislation that would give the House of Representatives and Senate the ability to block an Iran agreement. Obama promised on Thursday to brief Congress thoroughly on the details of the framework, but initial reaction from Republicans was skeptical.

Nuclear experts who have been skeptical of the negotiations sounded more positive on Thursday. Gary Samore, an expert at Harvard University’s Belfer Center, told Al Jazeera that the framework was “better than expected but still many important details [need] to be resolved, especially on the inspection and monitoring mechanisms.”

Perhaps the most enthusiastic response came from ordinary Iranians who listened to Obama’s comments broadcast live on local television: a first in a country that has been estranged from the U.S. since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Tehranis, who were celebrating the last day of their two-week New Year holiday, honked horns and sent each other congratulatory text messages including this one: “The winter is over.”

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BREAKING: ZARIF, ROUHANI ANNOUNCE PRELIMINARY IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/04/breaking-iran-deal-announced-lausanne-nuclear.html

By Laura Rozen reports on foreign policy from Washington, DC, for Al-Monitor's Back Channel.

LAUSANNE, Switzerland — Iran Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif announced that "solutions have been found" to reach a political understanding with six world powers, and drafting would get underway immediately on a final Iran nuclear deal due by the end of June.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also jumped on Twitter to proclaim agreement parameters for a deal, writing, "Solutions on key parameters of Iran nuclear case reached. Drafting to start immediately, to finish by June 30th. #IranTalks"

European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini also tweeted "Good news" at the negotiations, ahead of a joint press conference with Zarif.

Iranian journalist Abas Aslani posted alleged details that he said were from an agreed  possible "Summary of Solutions." MEANWHILE None of Iran's nuclear facilities or activities will not be suspended or shut down.

Among them were that Iran could use 5,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium to 3.5%, would implement the Additional Protocol, convert the Fordow enrichment site to an advanced nuclear and physics research center and continue some research and development on advanced centrifuges. The alleged details could not be immediately confirmed.

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DOES IRAN REALLY WANT ALL SANCTIONS REMOVED IMMEDIATELY?

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/04/iran-nuclear-sanctions-remove.html

by Arash Karami Posted April 1, 2015

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader who has final say on the nuclear program, has previously said that all sanctions on Iran must be removed and that the deal will not be a multistep deal. Members of parliament and other officials have also stated this. Presumably, this means that once a deal is signed, in June, all nuclear-related sanctions on Iran will be removed.

Speaking from Lausanne to Iranian reporters April 1, Araghchi said: “We cannot have an agreement that does not contain the removal of sanctions. Certainly all the sanctions must be removed but the topics and issues of sanctions are very diverse. The types of sanctions and the issuer of sanctions are diverse: the Security Council, the European Union and America. These have to be separated and it has to become clear in what order it will take place.”

Araghchi continued: “We insist that in the first step of the agreement all the financial, banking and oil sanctions be removed and find a clear framework for the removal of sanctions that are possibly associated with other parts. Either way, without a completely clear and precise outlook for the removal of sanctions, certainly we will not have an agreement.”

The official deadline for these nuclear talks is the end of June, though by the end of March there was supposed to be an announcement of a political framework agreement.

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