martes, 31 de marzo de 2020

Mar 31 ND SIT EC y POL



Mar 31  ND   SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


Sufri un sabotaje en el fechaje de mis envíos al Journal: alguien no quiere mis envíos
Los dos anteriores mensajes enviados pertenecen al dia 30 de Marzo
El Journal de hoy corresponde al dia 31. El anterior dice 31 pero es del dia 30.
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ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

It's Official...
Mad World Remix of Mobi VIDEO:

Here's a chart that no one suspected would happen (most of all not the media and the democrats)... as stocks crashed by record amounts in March, President Trump's approval rating has soared to the highest of his presidency...
See Chart:

So how bad was Q1?
Q1 was the world's biggest quarterly capitalization loss (in bonds and stocks) ever...
See Chart:
Quarterly Capitalization Change of Global Stocks & Bonds

With bonds adding a modest $1.1 trillion while stocks lost a record-smashing 19.6 trillion...
See Chart:

This was The Dow's worst Q1 ever...
See Chart:

...and worst overall quarter since Q4 1987...
See Chart:
Dow Quarterly Performance (%)

This was The S&P's worst Q1 since 1938 (and worst overall quarter since Q4 2008) and March was worst month for S&P since Oct 2008.
See Chart:

Additionally, stocks suffered the first back-to-back-to-back monthly losses since Oct 2016.
30Y Yields fell in all three months in Q1. This is the biggest Q1 crash in 30Y Yields since 1986 (and biggest quarterly decline in yields since Q3 2011). 2Y Yields plunged 136bps in Q1 (down 6 quarters in a row) - the biggest yield drop since Q1 2008.
See Chart:

This is the 6th straight quarter of gains for gold (and up 12 of the last 14 Q1s)
See Chart:
Gold Q1 Performance (%)

Oil prices plunged all three months in Q1. Q1's 66% crash in WTI is the worst quarter ever (worse than the 60% oil glut crash in Q1 1986).
See Chart:

But apart from that, Q1 was awesome!!
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The Russell 2000 is the biggest (major) index loser in Q1 (down around 31%) and the Nasdaq the relative winner...
See Chart:

So much for the month-/quarter-end rebalancing flows?
See Chart:
Nasdaq vs UST 10Y Yield

The Virus-Fear Trade - long food, short leisure - has started to deteriorate again this week suggesting all is not well...
See Chart:

Bank stocks suffered their second worst quarter ever, crashing 41% (Q1 2009 was -44%) with Citi and Wells Fargo worst...
See Chart:

VIX quarterly change. Q1 also saw the biggest quarterly spike in VIX ever...
See Chart:

And realized volatility in stocks has only been higher during the Black Mondays in 1987 and 1929...
See Chart:

Credit markets collapsed at a record pace in Q1 with IG taking the brunt (relatively speaking) until The Fed bailed them out...
See Chart:

High Yield was ugly though...
See Chart:

Bond yields collapsed in Q1 led by the short-end (2Y -135bps, 30Y -105bps)...
See Chart:

2Y Yields are once again back below The Fed Funds rate (even after the massive cuts this quarter)...  good graft
See Chart:

he Dollar surged in Q1 (its biggest quarter since Q4 2016)
While oil stole all the headlines in Q1 with its record-breaking crash, gold managed solid gains..
While some (heavier) crudes actually traded with negative prices in Q1 (Wyoming Asphalt Sour), WTI traded down to a $19 handle at its lows... for now...
See Chart:
WTE Crude

Finally, what happens next? Who knows? But Nomura's Charlie McElligott has run the historical seasonals and this is what the 'odds' say

Global index performance for the next 4 weeks, the outperformers are in Eurostoxx 
See Tables

However, the question is - do we replay 2008 after this bounce?
See Chart:

Remember, it's about the fun-durr-mentals again..  very bad
See  Chart:

And top-down macro is even worse...
See Chart:

As The Feds favorites (and only) tool seems to have stopped working...
See Chart:
Fed Balance Sheet  vs. S&P
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

The guidelines are going to call for people to shelter in place until the end of April...possibly even longer...
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We are not at war. Sailors do not need to die. If we do not act now, we are failing to properly take care of our most trusted asset — our Sailors.”
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Illinois pols have constantly over promised pension benefits, passed unbalanced budgets and hiked spending, all of which have left the state with a chronic bill backlog...
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Most Americans are blaming “hoarders”for the current mess, but it is actuallymuch more complicated than that...
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Subir los precios y bajar la demanda no es solución.. agravaría el problema
A variable import fee on United States imported oil or products with a floor price of $50.00 will set the U. S. price and hence the world price at $50.00. This would provide a stabilizing effect on the U. S. oil industry...
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Es la recesión, no el CV. Recess is natural in neolib Sys n is global because this Sys is G

“The whole world is turned upside down right now.”
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All booms come with their bust & if this affect key sector of the world Econ  like: A-wrong State investment (weapons & wars instead of health, salaries & jobs ). B- wrong sources of energy (still fosil  fuels) .. C-wrong uses of huge over accumulated Capital & D : evil-corrupt regimes in big countries. The rest you name it...all that affect the reproduction of neoliberal  system.. then we have a global recession like in 1929-36.. The current one could last more & be more devastated if we added WW3, that is in US-PENTA & NATO plans.. The 40,000 NATO troops to borders of RU-Chi  show this risk. Evil US generals want to use the stupid  arsenal we’ve accumulated in the destruction of RU-Chi will . They respond with similar ferocity to the heart of US and NATO power. Result: MAD. Effect: nuclear infestation at global level with new pandemias & huge ecological disaster due to global rotation-dislocation & new-worse climate changes. The nuclear WW3 could be the end of human history.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

NOTAS desde la cárcel: La discriminación del saber   C  León
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ALAI  ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

Avión militar ruso con ayuda médica contra el coronavirus parte hacia EE.UU.   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/348385-avion-militar-ruso-ayuda-medica-covid-eeuu
Slavoj Zizek: "El CV nos obliga a elegir entre el comunismo global o la ley de la jungla" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/348318-slavoj-zizek-coronavirus-comunismo-jungla
Trump: el US enfrentará "dos semanas muy, muy dolorosas" por el brote de  CV   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/348365-trump-eeuu-semanas-dolorosas-coronavirus
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

-Get Ready for World Money  By James Rickards
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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POR QUE TRUMP NO LIQUIDA LOS PARASITOS FINANCIEROS?



POR QUE TRUMP NO LIQUIDA LOS PARASITOS FINANCIEROS?
Hugo Adan Marzo 31 2020

 This is my reaction to:

The energy sector has lost extraordinarily $1.15trn in market value this year as oil prices have plunged to almost unimaginable levels...
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Hay especuladores que retiraron su sobre acumulación de capital del Mercado financiero interno  (sea por alta volatitidad y en espera de un mejor momento ..que no llego,  o sea porque el CV también  los afecto, alegan)

En realidad, los super-billonarios no fueron afectados ni por el CV ni por la dinámica Keynesiana. De este sistema recibieron los bailouts y los QEs, ellos prefirieron dormir sobre sus billones que invertirlos  para aligerar la explosiva  desigualdad  que crearon.

Dos economistas dijeron que la recesión es el momento preciso para liquidarlos, de lo contrario son ellos quienes liquidarían a Trump. Hayes indico que es la recesión lo que permite liquidarlos, es lo único positivo de una recesión.

Fue lo que Keynes sugirió a FDR y este lo hizo, les confisco no solo su oro, tambien confisco a algunos evasores de impuestos  su Capital acumulado en bancos del país, indico un estudioso del tema FDR.

Krugman dijo que el daño de estos super billonarios fue desmontar la dinámica del spending que sugirió Keynes ( el spending the labor o consumidor de pueblo, el spending del inversor productivo y el del mismo Estado) Ese spending es el eje del sistema Keynesiano que hoy usamos.

A la suma de estos spending Keynes le llamo ‘agregated demand’ Y la demanda agregada es la clave del crecimiento económico para Keynes, y es lo que da vida y fueza al crecimiento del GDP. 

La unica razón por la que Trump no liquida esos parásitos  es porque él podría ser cómplice o ser parte de ese ‘scam’.  Si no le es, esperamos los afecte porque no habría  tanto dinero como lo reclama el empresario de arriba. La super deuda ya acumulada va a afectar seriamente la existencia del USD dentro del proyecto de crear una sola moneda con las más fuertes de una región o del mundo entero a fin de facilitar depósitos bancarios y comercio internacional.
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MAR 31 ND SIT EC y POL



MAR 31  ND   SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Pareciera que la Economía funciona, pero las apariencias engañan

Amid an ever-escalating guess at the size of pension fund re-allocations funds (latest we saw was $150 billion) into month-end, both bonds and stocks were bid early on today, but as the day wore on, bonds weakened as stocks gained (driven by record IG issuance-driven rate-locks)...
See Chart:
Nasdaq  vs 10Y Yield

But while some are rebalancing into stocks, the scramble for cash among average Americans has almost never been more panicky...
See Chart:
US Currency Circulation week after week change

Just as notably, crude oil prices crashed to multi-decade lows today, completely decoupling from stocks (correlation crashed).
See Chart:

The question is - how long will the bounce last? If it's month-end, then 2008 is still in play...
See Chart:

Maybe it's better not to play... con las apariencias
And most of all, some context shows that today's ramp merely unwinds the carnage from the last 30 minutes of Friday... (note this was a 1300 points rally off overnight lows)
See Chart:

S&P and Nasdaq managed to erase that late-day plunge...(Note the Dow ended perfectly unch from Friday highs)
See Chart:

Breadth was very weak with declining volume dominating advancing volume for most of the day...
See Chart:

The Dow pushed back above the Dec 2008 lows today...
See Chart:
S&P 500 down

US IG credit has dramatically outperformed Europe since The Fed promise to start buying...  pero nadie cree en promesas
See Chart:

Treasuries were bid overnight but selling pressure accelerated as the US day session wore on (month-end rebalance and record IG issuance-driven rate-locks U.S. companies borrowed a record $109 billion, which was met with $550 billion of demand, in what one dealer called a “food fight” for new bonds, according to Bloomberg)
See Chart:
La linea verde indica que estamos de caida

Intraday, 10Y Yields fell back to a 59bps handle before the US session sell-off..
See Chart:
UST 10 Y Yield

Mission Accomplished for The Fed as Agency MBS dislocations have corrected...
See Chart:  Dawn

The B-Dollar Index managed little gains today (the first in 5 days and best in 7 days)...
See Chart
La caida es obvia, los little gains no la compensan

Commodities were all lower today led by crude's carnage...

WTI broke down to $19.27 at its lows (before bouncing back above $20.00 on the settle)...
See Chart:
Huele a massacre:  Lazaro se levanta.. pero el muerto siguió muriendo

And finally, as the oil market struggles with an unprecedented hit to demand caused by the coronavirus, its main measure of supply and demand is screaming that a historic glut is emerging.
See Chart
Hay supply pero solo para los de arriba

As Bloomberg details, Brent crude futures for May are now trading at an incredible $13.30 a barrel discount to November prices, a deeper and more bearish super-contango than the market saw even in the depths of the 2008-09 global financial crisis. 

Consultants say that, as things currently stand, the world is just a few months from running out of places to stash crude.
And we note that the 'Virus Fear'-trade started to pick up again today..
See Chart:
‘Virus Fear’ Trade :  SE promete liquidez para todos.. pero hay temor y poca fe
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The cyclically adjusted primary fiscal deficit to rise to 14% of GDP in 2020 (assuming stimulus of US$2.0 trillion) compared with 7% of GDP in 2009 – the highest level since the 1930s. The headline fiscal deficit will rise to around 18% of GDP in 2020.

The headline fiscal deficit will rise to around 18% of GDP in 2020.
See Chart:
US: Headline Fiscal Balance  (% of GDP)

With the help of this extraordinary policy action, and assuming an April/May Covid-19 peak, we expect the global economy to be on the mend from 3Q20 onwards.
See Chart:
Global Real GDP growth, %Y
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"Don’t look now but you’ve been screwed again... They will run patriotic commercials, while sticking a red white and blue dildo up your ass..."
 Those in charge never let a crisis go to waste. 9/11 was used to pass the Patriot Act and initiate nineteen years of declared and undeclared wars in the Middle East to create chaos, empower Israel, and abscond with the oil of sovereign countries.
The 2008/2009 crisis, created by the Fed and their Wall Street banker proprietors, was used by the powers that be to abscond with trillions in national wealth, while further enslaving senior citizens in poverty and forcing the working middle class further into debt servitude. Bernanke, Yellen, Geithner and a myriad of other banker flunkies have been richly rewarded for their traitorous actions by their Wall Street brethren, with tens of millions in compensation for their duty and honor to the cabal.
The men who created the 2008/2009 global financial collapse through their mortgage fraud scheme, used fear and panic in the markets to force the feckless pathetic bought off congress apparatchiks to pass TARP and dozens of other ridiculous “bailout bankers” schemes to provide a façade of recovery. There was never a recovery. The unpayable debt was papered over with trillions more of unpayable debt, until something snapped in September 2019.
 The first half of this twenty year, or so, Fourth Turning was ushered in by the 2008/2009 financial collapse and the subsequent disastrous solutions implemented by the ruling class in order to preserve their wealth, power and control. The taxpayer bailout of Wall Street should have been called NO BANKER LEFT BEHIND. 
The masses have been indoctrinated through government schools and propagandized by the captured corporate media to such an extent, they have been convinced abnormality and pillaging by the ruling class are both normal and acceptable. The world added $90 trillion of debt between 2000 and 2008, over a 100% increase. Bernanke, Yellen, Powell and their other central bank co-conspirators said hold my beer and added another $90 trillion since the first debt created crisis. 
 The Himalayan mountain of debt now stands at $253 trillion, or 322% of global GDP. Rogoff and Reinhart proved countries whose debt surpass 90% of GDP always proceed towards crisis and currency debasement.
See Chart:
GLOBAL DEBT HITS A RECORD HIGH
 Our very own CDC “experts” tell us the country has already experienced 38 to 54 million flu infections since October, with a half million hospitalizations, and at least 24,000 deaths, so why weren’t our hospitals overwhelmed? I know this is a serious virus, but the scare tactics being utilized by our overseers, corrupt politicians and their corporate media propaganda outlets is beyond excessive, and reveals a far more nefarious purpose.
See Charts:
About the CV and Health situation of Americans  
 Did we need to purposely create a global depression in order to defeat this virus? Will the benefits outweigh the cost? Is this health crisis being used by the monied interest swine to again gorge themselves at the taxpayer trough, robbing the public, while persuading them it’s for their advantage? The “conspiracy theorists” among us, who have been proven correct time after time over the last decade, know the answers to these questions:  
This is a controlled demolition by the powers that be as cover for their fraud, criminal schemes, and looting of the national treasure.
See Graphic:
Recovery!!  … FOR US!
“To rob the public, we must first deceive it. The trick consists in persuading the public that the theft is for its advantage; and by this means inducing it to accept, in exchange for its property, services which are fictitious, and often worse.”
 – Frederic Bastiat
 Only in a suicide cult, which our country has become, would the majority support and cheer for a corporate lobbyist written $2.2 trillion 873-page windfall to bankers, connected mega-corporations, and every special interest imaginable.  
 This doesn’t even account for the $4 trillion of secret payoffs and behind the scenes shenanigans of the Federal Reserve, as they do their part to support their banker owners once again. And just to make sure none of their despicable acts will see the light of day, the ruling class slipped in little clause titled:
SEC. 4009. TEMPORARY GOVERNMENT IN THE SUNSHINE ACT RELIEF. 
 We’ve shirked responsibility for our own lives by believing the very same people who didn’t see the crisis coming, weren’t prepared, and have failed miserably to centrally control the situation. We’ve given them the power over our lives and we are being led towards the slaughterhouse. It was our choice. We let fear overcome reason and courage. 
NATION OF SHEEP..  RULED BY WOLVES.. OWNED BY PIGS
Burning Platform
And to:
Nueva Democracia:  https://nd-hugoadan.blogspot.com/
Hugo Adan Zegarra: 314 Ophelia St. Pittsburgh PA 15213
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SHORT ECONOMIC NEWS
"This change has been made to ensure the Desk has sufficient time to obtain all bids from eligible counterparties on quarter end in light of remote working arrangements of eligible counterparties" 
The chart below demonstrates the collapse in TSY submissions to the Fed's repo operations ever since QE Unlimited was launched, which also meant that instead of parking their bonds at the Fed for up to 3 turbulent months, with an avalanche of new debt coming down the pipe, Dealers could just sell them to the Fed instead.  SEE CHART:
"Why on Earth you would tie something up for three months in repo with the Fed buying," .. "I think people are getting wise to the fact that an absolute tsunami of global sovereign debt issuance is on its way. Best to sell it all to the fed NOW probably."
Meanwhile, instead of worrying about the repo - which thanks to Unlimited QE is now irrelevant - the Fed shoudl be much more focused on what is going on with uptake of its reverse repo operation.. SEE CHART:
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The memo said suspending rebalancing
during extreme periods of volatility is prudent.
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The energy sector has lost extraordinarily $1.15trn in market value this year as oil prices have plunged to almost unimaginable levels...
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Hay especuladores que retiraron su sobre acumulación de capital del Mercado financiero interno  (sea por alta volatitidad y en espera de un mejor momento ..que no llego,  o sea por el CV tambien  los afecto) En realidad, los super-billonarios no fueron afectados ni por el CV ni por la dinámica Keynesiana. De este sistema recibieron los bailouts y los QEs, ellos prefirieron dormir sobre sus billones que invertirlos  para aligerar la explosiva  desigualdad  que crearon. 
Dos economistas dijeron que la recession es el momento preciso para liquidarlos, de lo contrario son ellos quienes liquidarían a Trump. Hayes indico que es la recesión lo que permite liquidarlos, es lo único positivo de una recesión. 
Fue lo que Keynes sugirió a FDR y este lo hizo, les confisco no solo su oro, a algunos evasores de impuestos les confisco su Capital acumulado en bancos del pais.
 Krugman dijo que el daño de estos super billonarios fue desmontar la dinámica del spending que sugirió Keynes ( el spending the labor o consumidor de pueblo, el spending del inversor productivo y el del mismo Estado, a estos spending Keynes le llamo ‘agregated demand’) Y la demanda agregada es la clave del crecimiento económico, y es lo que da fueza al GDP. 
La unica razón por la que Trump no los liquidaría es porque él es cómplice o parte de ese Fraude.   
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

The silver lining is that this next crisis could finally demolish the Keynesian welfare-warfare state and the fiat money system...
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DoD leaders "worried adversaries could exploit such information, especially if the data showed the outbreak impacted U.S. nuclear forces or other critical units."
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Despite an observable urge for the regulatory agencies to crush the culture of vitamins and erase their history, it’s leaking out into the mainstream that intravenous (IV) vitamin C in high doses is effectiveagainst COVID-19...
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"I hope it works"...
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The Treasury has taken decisive action and is literally flooding the market with T-Bills to satisfy the market's panicked need for cash-equivalent paper.
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"It could never happen again..."
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"You do not matter. The imperial statedoesn’t care about you. Oligarchs don’t care about you. Mega corporations don’t care about you..."
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Congratulations America, you were just bought by a group of anonymous bankers with your own elected politicians making it possible.
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...here's where the $2 trillion will be spent...
See Chart:

Broadly speaking, there are five components to the COVID-19 stimulus bill:
See Chart:
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As we wait for scientists to develop a vaccine for COVID-19, there is another, more readily available tool at our disposal. Social distancing is the first line of defense for containing an infectious disease...  See Chart
Theoretical Potential
Using a summation formula makes it possible to estimate the number of new infections over a 30 day period, across three scenarios.  See Chart
The results, for a community of 30,000 people and an epidemic with R=2.5, are charted below. We can define the final illness attack rate as the share of people from an at risk population who ultimately catch the disease.  See Chart
Results showed that when no action was taken, 65% of the population contracted the disease. However, if a combination of all four distancing measures were implemented instead, the attack rates were:
45% (distancing begins after a 4 week delay)
21% (distancing begins after a 3 week delay)
7% (distancing begins after a 2 week delay)
SOURCE: 
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They're going to need to ramp up production of these drugs...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

Human beings fear what they do not understand and that fear causes them to behave in irrational and destructive ways. The current Covid-19 pandemic is a perfect example of that...
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TIT for TAT: Trump accused China of causing CV and now comes the boomerang
"Do you think the Americans came to Wuhan to buy soy sauce?"
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Rather, obnoxiously, I would suggest, you give some consideration to thepossibility that there is no reasonable side to the Saudis - not as it would pertain to our interests...
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"Brazil cannot stop or we'll turn into Venezuela..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

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ALAI ORG

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EL RESTO PARA MAÑANA
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