TUES
JULY 31 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
Econ debacle in the US: Crude and Yield
Curve Collapse
This seemed to sum up the month
rather well...
July high- (and
low-) lights
·
China CHINEXT down for 4th straight month to lowest since Jan 2015
·
Shanghai Composite best month since Jan 2018
·
DAX best month since Sept 2017
·
Trannies best month since Nov 2016 (US election)
·
Dow, S&P's best month since January 2018
·
Small Caps up for 5th month in a row
·
Nasdaq up for 4th month
in a row
·
FANG
Stocks worst month since Nov 2016 (US election)
·
TWTR worst month...ever
·
FB worst month since Aug
2012
·
NFLX worst month since
Jan 2016
·
TSLA worst month since
March
·
UST Yield Curve flattened for 5th straight month
to Aug 2007 flats
·
The Dollar Index fell on the month - first drop in 4 months
·
Offshore
Yuan dumped for 4th straight month to 13-month lows
·
Emerging Market FX had
first monthly gain since Jan 2018
·
Bitcoin's
best month since April
·
Gold fell for the 4th
month in a row (lowest monthly close since Jan 2017)
·
Copper's worst month since Dec 2016
·
WTI Crude's worst month since July 2016
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China stocks were mixed for the
month with CHINEXT (China 'Nasdaq') worst..
See Chart:
All major European indices green for
July...
See Chart:
US: Semiconductor
stocks continue to be a bright spot in an earnings season that has taken its
toll on technology investors.
KLA-Tencor Corp. led the group higher Tuesday, climbing as
much as 15 percent for the biggest gain in almost three years, after its
fourth-quarter results topped the highest expectations. The report echoed a theme of strong demand just days after heavyweights
like Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Xilinx Inc. crushed expectations.
See Chart:
The
strength in chip stocks has been magnified as tech investors slammed the sell
button for tech darlings in the FANG bloc. The
megacap group has stumbled through a rocky earnings season that pushed the FANG
Index down 9.3 percent over a three-day slump following Facebook Inc.’s record
meltdown. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 1.9 percent Thursday,
defying the Facebook-led rout, and added another 1.3 percent on Tuesday.
Value
stocks outperformed growth for the first month since March
SEE Chart:
Global bond prices fell on the month
thanks to BoJ rumors (but barely bounced back on BoJ non-news)...
See Chart:
The Yield curve flattened for the
5th month in a row (and 14th of last 16) to its lowest monthly close since Aug
07...
See Chart:
All eyes were on The BoJ last
night - who disappointed - sending the yield curve tumbling back to pre-rumor
levels (and for now, bank stocks haven't caught all the way down)...
See Chart:
The Dollar had its first monthly
drop in 4 months.
See Chart:
Notably, Yuan spiked today after
headlines implied some potential progress on the US-China trade waR...
See Chart:
And the Dollar also spiked at the
same time...
See Chart:
Emerging Markets FX managed its
first monthly gain since January
See Chart:
Despite Dollar weakness, commodities
lower across the board in July with Crude down most since July 2016...
See Chart:
…
…
See all charts in this source:
…
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In my view
1-The TRADE WAR IS HITTING BOTH
THE US AND CHINA
Fact 1.1 US selling-buying of stocks were magnified
artificially to recycle USD, the fact is that Value stocks outperformed growth for the
first month since March see chart above
See Also: The Dollar had its first monthly drop in 4 months.. see
above chart above:
F 1.2. China case: See
chart: China stocks were mixed for the
month with CHINEXT (China 'Nasdaq') worst..
F1.3. US case: The Yield curve flattened for the 5th
month in a row (and 14th of last 16) to its lowest
monthly close since Aug 07...see chart above
2- When furious lions fight
like cannibals.. those who don’t fight get benefits:
See chart: All major European
indices green for July...
3- When China-US get PEACE in trade war both
benefit
See Notably, Yuan spiked today after
headlines implied some potential progress on the US-China trade waR... see
chart above
See Also: And the Dollar also spiked
at the same time...
4- However, the GODS of the poor celebrate the cannibal fight and bless the
poor
See On the month of
July, the Mexican Peso was the strongest against the dollar see graph: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-07-31_8-00-40_0.jpg?itok=p-iBituz
Real Gods, IF exist, are sided with the
poor.
My final observation:
Africans
use to SAY “ cuando los elefantes pelean,
quien sufre es el grass: los de abajo sufren. En el TRADE-WAR de hoy ocurre lo inverso: son los “inversionistas de arriba” los que más pierden y es
el imperio mayor el que también pierde más.
Y no solo ellos pierden, también
la gran iglesia cristiana pierde adeptos. El GOD BLESS AMERICA va
quedando obsoleto por bendecir dictaduras. Si no lo creen, pregúntele al Papa y
su bendición a la dictad ARG del plan Condor, after Allende kill in Chile.
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WORLD RECESSION IS ON.. Stop
supporting fake “financiers”.. pay attent to middle & work-class.. Rememb:
during 1930’ Rec.. COOPS & worker unions
save Educ. In school not closed: alivio a crisis
"We can dress up the wider flexibility of the yield-curve control
policy, but it is really mostly
just more of the same."
See Chart:
[ One more chart: check similarit with US ] The Bank of
Japan disappointed last night as East Coast traders had to wait for the longest
time since 2016 for Kuroda to do practically nothing, creating an unwind of last week's anxiety-driven spike in
bond yields.
See Chart:
…
[
La caída del US va a
ser igual o peor, JA solo siguió nuestro ejemplo y cayo 1ro. Cuando el mal es de todos, se requiere solidarid..
no celebrar la caída de otros ni culparlos de efectos mundiales que todo el
West creo, inclusión aparte la de Russia
and China. It is Time to stop Neoliberal Economy.
The rich who got the money (QEs) is egoistic, narcissist & insane.. We
have to stop their gluttony. They deserve Tobin Tax to save middle product
Com & Working classes .. otherwise all Politica
Gob & their democ will fall one by one. We can see this instability
starting now.. AVOID THE WORSE! At least, our RU-Chi & Iran phobias is getting off. Mr Presid
Trump: Give them a good hit and bye-bye to hillarian war mongers. And go Moscow
to get a deal to save d World and then go to China and Iran too. So far. You Mr. Presid Trump did THE BEST by hitting Koch brothers. YOU ARE REAL PRESID
NOW. Hugo Adan ]
…
…
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-31/japanic-over-traders-high-hopes-crushed-nothing-new
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WHAT
ARE FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS TELLING THEIR CLIENTS ABOUT "INVESTING FOR THE
LONG RUN"? Stupid news
.. but anyway .. the charts has some value
"Achieving 'growth' among an indefinitely shrinking pie is a fools errand which will only
have progressively worse
consequences."
See Chart: High Income Country
Population 1959-2050
See more charts related at:
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"The
next large QT-weekly reduction ironically enough is happening in an
action-packed week, where on 1 Aug
the Fed’s UST holdings will decline by $24bn."
See Chart:
See other interesting Charts at
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Use of this financial instrument has
ballooned. No
one knows to what extent because there’s no disclosure. But it was a “key contributor” to the sudden collapse of
outsourcing giant Carillion...
READ THIS:
As regulators and stiffed creditors were poking through the
debris of collapsed
outsourcing giant Carillion – once employing 43,000 people worldwide –
they found that the UK company had hidden much of its debts. And Fitch Ratings warned
that this “technique” – a “debt loophole” – may be “widespread” in the US and
Europe.
Carillion provided services to governments. It didn’t manufacture
anything, didn’t have a lot of assets, and didn’t have a lot of debt – at least
not disclosed on its books. Net debt on its balance sheet amounted to £219 million. But Fitch
estimates that it had an additional financial debt of £400
million to £500 million.
This debt was hidden by a “technique commonly referred to as reverse
factoring,” Fitch says. And it was “a key contributor to
Carillion’s liquidation.”
But this
was financial debt owed to banks – not trade accounts payable.
Any disclosure?
Cash
obtained via reverse factoring is particularly fragile because when this
company gets into financial distress, the bank simple cancels the reverse
factoring program, and the company will have to come up with funding to pay
down its accounts payable to the terms agreed to with suppliers.
To use our example
above, the buyer would have to come up with $66.7 million to pay down its
payables from 180 days to 60 days – and this would happen as the buyer is
already under financial stress, just when it can no longer borrow money at
survivable rates. This is how reverse factoring
increases the likelihood of a sudden default and Carillion-style collapse.
“Sectors that are large users of reverse factoring include consumer
packaged goods, telecommunications, chemicals, retail, and aerospace,” Fitch says.
GM,
Fiat Chrysler, and Ford all got ugly in unison, in one day, something we
haven’t seen since the Financial Crisis. Read… Carmageddon
in Detroit
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"... there can be no denying that so far, I am wrong and the yield curve keeps going
down faster than the plate of drinks at the end of David Hasselhoff’s table after
a taping of Britain’s Got Talent."
Yet there can be no denying that so far, I am wrong and the yield curve keeps going down faster than the plate of
drinks at the end of David Hasselhoff’s table after a taping of Britain’s Got
Talent.
See Chart:
Much to my surprise, there were more people googling “yield
curve” in 2005 than today. Would have never guessed
that.
My take? All the “real” bond
traders will become even more frustrated in the coming months as yield curve
talk continues to dominate the airwaves. Watch for even
more “yield-curve-disaster-in-the-making” articles.
Markets
never set up so neatly
Let’s have a look at why so many seem obsessed with watching
the yield curve. During the past three recessions, the
2-10 year US Treasury yield spread went negative about a year before the onset
of the economic slowdown.
See Chart:
I admit
it - I’m a yield curve apologist
One of my favourite fixed-income strategists is
Janney’s Guy LeBas. Lately I have
been having a good laugh at Guy’s labeling of pundits as
“yield-curve-apologists.” If I may paraphrase his argument, Guy believes the world’s largest market’s collective wisdom
is the best signal out there and for those that somehow find a way to convince
themselves they know better than the market are arrogant beyond belief. Yeah, I
get it. We all know the most expensive four words in the history of investing
Guy has little time for the central banking academic sect
who warn the yield curve might no longer be a reliable
economic signal, ironically, due to the quantitative easing programs central
banks themselves instituted. From the FT:
See picture with BERNAKE warning
But
what if the Fed is influencing the yield curve in another way?
As I have mentioned before, I believe the exponentially growing amount of
sovereign debt and government’s willingness to inflate it away will eventually
cause the yield curve to hit all-time wides.I
find it perplexing that often those market participants most worried
about the growing government debt are the very same ones advocating owning
long-dated “supposedly safe” sovereign bonds. The more debt that is created, I believe the more
likely it will be inflated away.
Falling natural
level of interest
This R* or the natural level of
interest has been falling for quite some time.
See Chart:
Yet what I
am even more sure of is that at major turning points in market cycles, old
paradigms die hard. Did the bond
market would kill inflation? Not a chance. Even when he cranked short-term
rates, markets assumed inflation would continue rising
aggressively. So where was the “collective wisdom” of that market reaction?
My suspicion is that
the yield curve will get increasingly more volatile as
we progress through this next change from a dis-inflationary to inflationary
environment.
Now I have to run. LeBas wants to scold me on twitter for my idiocy of
joining the #yieldcurveapologists…
Bernanke favorite quote
Madness is
rare in individuals
But in
groups, parties Nations and ages
It is the
rule Friedrich Nietzsche
…
Read the full article at:
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
If true.. the BEST move of
Trump .. Koch Brothers have kill many farmers in US & envormt too
"Their
network is highly overrated, I have beaten them at every turn. They want to
protect their companies outside the U.S. from being taxed, I’m for America
First & the American Worker - a puppet for no one."
[[Koch
Brothers have damaged US Econ more than trade-war so far.. they deserved
T-policy]]
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"This is a pretty strong
reminder of how low governments will sink when they become
financially desperate..."
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"Our research has found virtually no public safety rationale for the ongoing arrest
and prosecution of marijuana smoking"
[[
La marihuana no crea
adicción ni daña el cerebro de nadie.. El adictivo le es
agregado y no solo eso, tambien se le agrega el veneno llamado crack (pasta
básica) para darle fuerza a la marih criada en las terrazas de una casa.. La
marih orgánica solo estimula los sentidos al max.. Yo
fume el moño rojo de la selva amazónica cercana al Cusco y Machu Pichu desde
entonces lo use para ir a conciertos y mirar exposiciones de arte. Y lo vendí
tambien a los turistas que visitan Machu Pichu, para eso vienen (luego los lleve
a Quillabamba, el paraíso de los turistas). La marihuana debe ser criada bajo
el Sol, es cuando le nace la flor roja en el top. Un pitillo de 2-3 hojas vasta
para volar por 2 o 3 horas y su efecto no es inmediato ni crashing. Uno lo
puede fumar en casa e ir luego al concierto o al museo de arte. La Marih
NO es un alucinógeno, no altera los sentidos, se puede
manejar carro con ella, aunque no es recomendable hacerlo. El alucinógeno que
fuman los chamanes viene de la corteza del “palo santo” un árbol lleno de
hormigas al que hay que saberlo tajear. Ese “Te” si altera los sentidos, pero
no mata a nadie tampoco. Lo bebí cuando un Chaman de la aldea Ashaninka le
rescato el alma que se le fue a mi amigo cuando ayudo a entrar logs a la cabaña
por temor al lluvion que venía. Sin darse cuenta levanto una culebra no
venenosa que se protegia dentro esos logs. En la noche mi amigo no podía
dormir.. se despertaba gritando CULEBRA. Tuvimos que llamar al Chaman que nos
hizo danzar con él para rescatarle el alma. Fue entonces que bebi el
alucinógeno. A mi amigo le dio otra bebida que lo dejo dormido como bebe
mientras nosotros danzábamos a su alrededor. Masticar la hoja de coca tampoco mata a
nadie, restaura energía y mata el hambre, para eso la
mastican o chakchan los quechuas y nativos. Su sabor no es agradable pero hoy
se vende en NY el mate o te de coca, que es muy popular en Cusco y en todo
Latino América. Ese mate elimina el mal
sabor del masticado y tiene efecto diría lejano a la coca que se mastica;
efecto cercano, dicen los enamorados. Pero para el amor yo prefiero el “te” de
un ichu llamado * que es el alimento favorito de las alpacas y es además el
ingrediente básico del *. Su efecto es también suave como la marihuana y sin
sabor alguno. Se de 1 COL que se hizo millonario en Francia vendiendo moño
rojo, así como la empresa Pfizer lo logró con el *. La marih estimula el amor y si es de
selva: eleva el placer hedonista. Los que le
agregan crack son los que asesinan los beneficios de marih y los que matan
neuronas de gente desinformada ]]
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AMERICANS
TO PAY 4% MORE FOR DIAPERS, TISSUES AND TOILET PAPER for every thing
P&G
unveiled that the cost of Pampers will go up by an average of 4%; Other
paper staples, such as Bounty, Charmin and Puffs will see 5% price increases on
average.
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“It’s a constitutional right to bear arms and when you are asking the court to deprive
somebody of that right we need to make sure we are making good decisions, right
decisions and the circumstances warrant it...”
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global
depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest
in limbo
Contradiction in Washington: Trump,
Pompeo at odds over preconditions for talks with Iran
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
US inside GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
Is Riyadh or ISR?: No Peace Plan Without East Jerusalem as
Palestine Capital – Report
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RELATED
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Too bad.. este no leyo el art
de Bernanke above.. los QEs
son el nicho donde ira la Econ USA
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SIGAR: Trump Strategy to Exploit Afghan
Minerals Fails después
de los bomb-USA.. imposible
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Se debe
negoc 1ro con RU, luego Chi y luego Iran .. No ponerse la botas 1ro y luego las
medias
Es lo que
hace el US.. la estrategia con Iran la negocio ya con Israel.. Lo
inverso huele “stinky”
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El
ex-asesor de Trump devino millonario.. Se acercan las elecciones.. todo
fraude vale?
RELATED:
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Que
contradictoria es la política de Trump.. será cierto que todo es “false flag”? Veremos..
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Son
estos lo que tienen el Gob de Trump bajo la guillotina? Como se la puede
colocar a ellos?
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RT
SHOWS
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Keiser
Report Episode
1260 When so many rich people
think the apocalypse is coming and they are preparing for it with doomsday
shelters, Jeff Bezos is gaining $275
million per day
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am NEW FOCUS: alternat to neo-fascist regimes, breaks to
HR, Peace & support to US-terrorism
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BRA: mortalid infant aumenta por 1ra vez
desde 1990 Andrés Alsina
Chile: MOV FEM se potencia mientras Iglesia Catól se desmorona LL
Chile: MOV FEM se potencia mientras Iglesia Catól se desmorona LL
COL:
-¿Repite Uribe la saga
de Fujimori? Horacio Duque
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--"Money, money,
money" Jorge Majfud
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CONTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Dean
Baker Trump’s
“Amazing” Economy
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Joseph Essertier Brutal
Billionaires’ Big Border Bucks
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Stefano
Galieni South
Africa Today: a Poor Country Based on Neoliberalism
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Focus on Trump policies & the Econ & Pol crisis he
creates
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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