viernes, 20 de noviembre de 2015

NOV 20 15 SIT EC y POL



NOV 20 15 SIT EC y POL






In uncertain times, “cash is king,” but central bankers are systematically moving to eliminate that option. Is it really about stimulating the economy? Or is there some deeper, darker threat afoot?.. [Perhaps..] .. you may soon be paying the bank to hold your funds rather than the reverse. [ The case is that..] Four European central banks – the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank, and Denmark’s Nationalbank – have now imposed negative interest rates on the reserves they hold for commercial banks; and discussion has turned to whether it’s time to pass those costs on to consumers. The Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve are still at ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy), but several Fed officials have also begun calling for NIRP (negative rates).
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The Fed Has Set the Stage For a Stock Market Crash Posted by: Phoenix Capital...
Post date: 11/19/2015 The Fed has conditioned investors to ignore fundamentals, valuations, and the business cycle. As a result, we are in another bubble that will burst as all bubbles do. 
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[ Is this a case of USUAL MANIPULATOR S of the MARKET being MANIPULATED by the FED? ]




ZERO HEDGE



[ Mas claro que el agua, no podría ser. Un nuevo saqueo de los Bancos Centrales del mundo se avecina  con el QE que viene y la elevación de la tasa de intereses por pagarse a deudas contraídas en USD.: “Rather than pretending not to target the exchange rate and pursuing domestic money printing, which distorts domestic asset prices, raises inequality and only indirectly works to weaken the exchange rate, the next stage of the currency war will be direct FX intervention. .. We can't wait, .. just imagine the epic profits that front-running billions in FX trades coming directly from central banks, and no longer disguised via Trust Banks, will lead to”. ]
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“Albert Edwards is not a fan of QE, but even he makes one exception. As he notes in his latest note "Going all in", Japan has no option "as it is fiscally bust." Albert Edwards. www.zerohedge
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Here some extract from this article:

Edwards notes that QE works by driving up financial asset prices; but that, "in practice, seems to have had a limited effect in boosting the real economy ?aside from increasing inequality. Furthermore, the one (price) thing that QE does change and that does make an economic difference is that it enables a lower exchange rate ? but only to beggar thy neighbour."
According to Edwards this means that the currency wars waged over the past 7 years will likely have to be taken to the next level. And to explain what that means Edwards looks at the infamous Ben Bernanke 2002 speech "Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here"

"The Fed can inject money into the economy in still other ways. For example, the Fed has the authority to buy foreign government debt, as well as domestic government debt. Potentially, this class of assets offers huge scope for Fed operations, as the quantity of foreign assets eligible for purchase by the Fed is several times the stock of U.S. government debt.?"

But this is the killer paragraph,
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 “Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it's worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt's 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to +3.4 percent in 1934. The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market. If nothing else, the episode illustrates that monetary actions can have powerful effects on the economy, even when the nominal interest rate is at or near zero, as was the case at the time of Roosevelt's devaluation”.

In other words Bernanke, if circumstances necessitate it, advocates direct foreign exchange intervention as a tried-and-tested route to reviving growth and eliminating deflation. QE has been dressed up by the Fed et al in a pretentious theoretic framework as working through a portfolio balance approach, driving interest rates so low that people are forced out of cash into financial assets, underpinning consumption via wealth effects. Let?s not beat around the monetary bush, one of the main aims of QE is to drive down one currency to gain a competitive advantage without overtly doing so. But, that mask is now lifting, with the ECB?s Draghi openly stating that a weaker euro was one of its main targets in adopting its QE programme.

Rather than pretending not to target the exchange rate and pursuing domestic money printing, which distorts domestic asset prices, raises inequality and only indirectly works to weaken the exchange rate, the next stage of the currency war will be direct FX intervention. China has pursued this course of action, after all, for most of the past decade.

Edwards' conclusion:

So much of what we now accept as routine in financial markets would have been thought impossible prior to the 2008 crisis ?- the next logical stage in the global currency war will be direct F X intervention!

We can't wait, and neither can Virtu: just imagine the epic profits that front-running billions in FX trades coming directly from central banks, and no longer disguised via Citadel or Japanese Trust Banks, will lead to.
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“The sums in play are so staggering (an estimated $11 trillion in emerging market debts denominated in other currencies) that even the Fed won't be able to stop the meltdown.”. www.zerohedge

HERE SOME EXTRACT OF THIS ART:

Currencies are in the midst of multi-year revaluations that will destabilize the tottering towers of debt, leverage and risk that have propped up global growth since 2009. … Though the relative value of currencies is discovered in the global FX market, there are four fundamental factors that influence the value of any currency:

1. Capital flows into and out of the currency (and the nation that issues the currency).
2. Perceived risk, specifically, will this currency preserve my global purchasing power (i.e. capital) or erode it?
3. The yield or interest rate paid on bonds denominated in this currency.
4. The scarcity or over-abundance of the currency.

One proxy for the absolute destruction of commodity-based income streams and assets is the CRB Index. No wonder emerging economies that depend heavily on the export of commodities are cratering, along with the currencies they issue.


Raising interest rates has a brutally negative effect on the domestic economy, as higher rates choke off domestic lending, which then pushes the economy into recession.

It's a no-win double bind, though, for doing nothing and letting one's currency implode drains the nation of capital and makes imports unaffordable. That matters when the imports are energy and/or food. … When those become scarce and unaffordable, social disorder soon follows.

The currency that has benefited from this reversal of capital flows is the U.S. dollar (USD):


Debt/currency crises tend to trigger defaults and weakness in other currencies. We have a recent example of such a crisis: the Asian Contagion of 1997-98. Though that crisis was linked to Thailand's failed bid to support its currency's peg to the U.S. dollar, the current situation is actually far more fragile as the destruction of commodity income and valuation raises the risk of sovereign defaults, corporate bond defaults, and capital flight that deepens already severe emerging-market recessions.

The bone-dry half-dead forest awaiting an igniting lightning strike is the global mountain of debt--debt which is no longer supported by current valuations of commodities and risk….  In effect, a currency crisis is simply the abrupt revaluation of the currency to reflect new realities.

As emerging market currencies decline, the income streams needed to service all the debt denominated in U.S. dollars declines, a self-reinforcing dynamic: as income and valuations fall, capital flees, pushing the relative value of the currency down even more, which further raises the risk premium that then triggers even more capital flight.

The sums in play are so staggering (an estimated $11 trillion in emerging market debts denominated in other currencies) that EVEN THE FED WON'T BE ABLE TO STOP THE MELTDOWN.
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Why would companies hire more people if they’re selling less stuff? The answer is that they probably won’t.  www.zerohedge
Here some extracts of this art

When sales have fallen, companies have responded with less hiring and more firing. But for the past year sales have declined while reported employment has risen.


Unless this relationship no longer holds, one of these lines will have to change course very soon. And since sales are beyond anyone’s control, it’s a safe bet that employment will be the one to give.
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[ Please check carefully in the Video the context & meaning on this statement ]
"At the same time, I love dogs but I'm going to call the humane society and hopefully they can come and take this dog away."  www.zerohedge

[ This title is miss-leading. After checking the tape I realize the true meaning of Carson statement. I didn’t contain any xenophobic attitude as corporate media portrayed in their wish to downplay him and favor the big millionaire- rats: H Clinton & D Trump. What Carson did say is that when a dog run streets with signs of rabies or hydrophobia –or rabia in spanish- is natural that people in fear take precaution and hide. He was describing the effects of terrorism on people in Paris and the whole Europe, now submitted to the experiment of the US Patriot Act. Why the Corp media miss-interpret Carson statement? They are afraid of Carson join Sanders to create a NATIONAL FRONT to rebuilt America and create a 3rd choice by abandoning their current crook parties. Of course the crony Hillary is very afraid of this alliance too. That is why the millionaires in both parties agreed to put down Carson and Sanders. Those parties (Dems & Reps ) are now performing electoral fraud by distorting messages from opposite contender. That is the way electoral fraud works in days previous to the election. This a dishonest way of excluding the contender. It is a mafia style of electoral fraud. We will see more of this now on. The millionaires Hillary and Trump go hand on hand in this dirty tactic. They are both financed by anonymous Super-packs. Trump manage to hide that support, but Hillary cannot do it. Her cronyism is well known & one more lie will bury her. Those super-pack are paying for these  distortion in the corporate media. I suggest to zerohedge managers to be careful with the dirty tactics of the corporate media ]
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Frontrunning: November 20. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/20/2015
  • French, U.S. Troops Enter Mali Hotel as Gunmen Hold Hostages (BBG)
  • Top suspect seen on CCTV in metro during Paris attacks (Reuters)
  • Paris Attacks’ Alleged Ringleader, Now Dead, Had Slipped Into Europe Unchecked (WSJ)
  • Global shares march on as alarm bells ring for metals (Reuters)
  • European Stocks Rise With Asian Shares as Zinc, Ringgit Advance (BBG)
  • World leaders arrive for summit amid heavy security (Reuters)
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How Islamic Extremism Was Born. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2015

[  Is past history used  to hide current brutalities of Saudis, Qatar, Kuwait & Turkey in Syria? ]
“History takes no prisoners. It shows, with absolute lucidity, that the Islamic extremism ravaging the world today was borne out of the Western foreign policy of yesteryear.”  www.zerohedge
[ Certainly history can be converted into prison .. you lie & lie & you create religions, dogms, false myths and other stupid ideological frames that are difficult to cast them off ]
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[  People is not worry.. is happy to stop fraud in China ]
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“The arrests or investigations targeting the finance industry in the aftermath of China’s summer market crash have intensified in recent weeks  according to Bloomberg, creating a climate of fear among China’s finance firms and chilling their investment strategies. As one professor of Chinese economy noted, "some in the political leadership sought to find scapegoats to blame" for the market crash which along with massive intervention "created uncertainty and anxiety that can only undermine the effort to make these markets work better.". www.zerohedge

[ China should fumigate those cockroaches .. not compassion at all to them.. they caused a lot of damage to the economy  and to people from China.. they are not investor.. they are scam speculators, the worse plague of  our time .. fumigate them!  ]
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WASHINGTON BLOG


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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE


In the midst of the Great Depression, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt looked out at the nation and this is what he saw…  He saw tens of millions of its citizens denied the basic necessities of life.
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U.S. spying showed Washington is determined to take control of Venezuela's oil resources.
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Are U.S. operations helping to spawn and spread terror groups? Is the Pentagon inflating the terror threat for its own gain?
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Anti-Syrian Muslim Refugee Rhetoric Mirrors Calls to Reject Jews During Nazi Era: During the 1930s and early 1940s, the United States resisted accepting large numbers of Jewish refugees escaping the Nazi terror sweeping Europe, in large part because of fear mongering by a small but vocal crowd.
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[ THE NEO-NAZI MACHINE OF DISTORTION GOES ON IN AMERICA. The demonization of Ben Carson is an example. The Independent from UK & all the corp media in the US joined this campaign. They pick-up a frase out of its context to portrait Carson as xenophobic. Those who listen the tape will realize that this is a nasty distortion. What Carson mean was: when a dog run streets with signs of rabies or rabia in spanish- is natural that people in fear take precaution and walk away. He was describing the effects of terrorism on people in Paris and the whole Europe, now submitted to “fear” experiment of the US Patriot Act. Why the Corp media miss-interpret Carson statement? They are afraid Carson join Sanders to create a NATIONAL FRONT to rebuilt America –a real democratic 3rd choice-  by abandoning their crook parties. Of course Hillary  -the crony, inefficient, liar & war monger-  is very afraid of this alliance too. .. This is why the millionaires in both parties agreed to put down Carson and Sanders. In doing this nasty campaign (Dems & Reps ) are performing electoral fraud. Distorting messages from opposite contenders is a way of electoral fraud, is the way fraud works in days previous to election. It is a dishonest way of excluding a contender. The millionaires Hillary and Trump go hand on hand in this dirty tactic. They are both financed by anonymous Super-packs (though Trump manage to hide it).  Those super-pack are paying these distortions in the corporate media. It is sad that progressive media –like ICH- joined such dirty distortion. Case in point: Ben Carson Likens Syrian Refugees to 'Rabid Dogs', By Andrew Buncombe ]
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“We had warned about what would happen in Europe, three years ago. We had said, 'Do not take what is happening in Syria lightly, it will be like an earthquake that will spread around the world.”
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[ To me Syria is a sign of collapse of the stupid US strategy known as “regime change” ]
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Washington will take advantage of Russian desire for Western cooperation and will use this desire in order to bring Russia under Western influence, thus reestablishing Washington’s hegemony. [for more on this logic OPEN:  PBS NewsHour Uses Russian Airstrike Footage While Claiming U.S. Airstrike Successes, By Moon Of Alabama. AND Proof U.S. Government Wanted ISIS To Emerge In Syria By Anchor Ben Swann  
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 [ I don’t think Russian are stupid.. so far, whatever US puppets said, RU converted into trap for them .. into a boomerang. .. I guess, they will continue doing so.  ]
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH


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Argentina: Señal de ajuste. Leandro Ziccarelli
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