miércoles, 24 de junio de 2015

JUN 24 SIT EC y POL



JUN 24 SIT EC y POL

ZERO HEDGE



Needless to say, not everyone is particularly enamored with US foreign policy under the Obama administration...

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"Washington broke arms and heads to get that 60th vote—not one to spare—to impose on the American people a plan which imperils their jobs, wages, and control over their own affairs. It is remarkable that so much energy has been expended on advancing the things Americans oppose, and preventing the things Americans want. The same routine plays out over and again. We are told a massive bill must be passed, all the business lobbyists and leaders tell how grand it will be, but that it must be rushed through before the voters spoil the plan. And when ordinary Americans who never asked for the plan, who don’t want the plan, who want no part of the plan, resist, they are scorned, mocked, and heaped with condescension."
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Investors Sue Wall Street, Markit For Conspiring To Monopolize CDS Market. S- by Tyler Durden on 06/24/2015
With a DoJ probe having predictably gone nowhere, a group of pensioners and retirement funds are suing Wall Street and Markit for colluding to monopolize the CDS market. Amusingly, Citadel has been subpoenaed to discuss how it was shut out of creating a CDS trading platform by the "oligopolistic" activities of TBTF banks, even as the firm looks set to dominate the market for IR swaps.
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Echoing the era of McCarthyism, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) files obtained by Judicial Watch reveal that the dad, maternal grandpa and father-in-law of President Obama’s trusted senior advisor, Valerie Jarrett, were hardcore Communists under investigation by the U.S. government.
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We suspect this will be the last time billionaire investor Carl Icahn is invited on CNBC. Having sold CNBC darling NFLX, he crushed the two main memes of CNBC's raison d'etre - buy stocks, because where else are you going to put your money - "what's better - making 2% or losing 30% as people did in 2008...right now it's an extremely dangerous time;" and the next leg of this bull market will come from an improving real economy - "the economy is not picking up, it is artificial due to low interest rates." The market has way over-estmated how long this will last, Icahn concludes, "keep your powder dry - why do have to own anything risky? It's just nonsensical."
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So much for a Greek deal getting "done" today, as the market had priced in for the nth countless time on Monday. Here is what happened moments ago according to Bloomberg and Reuters:
  • GREEK DELEGATION LEAVES EU COMMISSION
  • SCHAEUBLE SEES INSUFFICIENT PROGRESS FOR GREECE DEAL TODAY
  • SCHAEUBLE SAYS HE DOESN'T HAVE MUCH NEW TO SAY ON GREECE
And so on, until the next round of buying ahead of the next rumor, until the next denial launches stocks even higher, ahead of more hopes of an imminent deal launches even more buying program, until the next round of rumors leds to new all time highs and so on, and so on...
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The renewed optimism that's surrounded Greek debt negotiations since Monday evening evaporated like deposits on a hot summer day in Athens this morning as the IMF has indicated it will stick to its "red lines" on pension cuts and the VAT, meaning PM Alexis Tsipras will either surrender unconditionally or embrace an EMU exit.
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“There are three things that matter in the bond market these days: liquidity, liquidity and liquidity. When the unwind comes, like we’ve seen in the past few months, it comes abruptly and sharply as the exit door is tiny"...
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CEOs are not the most trustworthy figures in society. They will lay off thousands of employees to beat analysts' estimates, and yet they have no trouble looting the stock to pay themselves millions while the company loses money. However, one theme that keeps coming up is that unethical behavior has a price tag. With this in mind, consider the implications when the New York Fed tells us that economic activity declined because of the weather. Now that it's summer, it's not clear how cold weather is interfering. Perhaps the Fed has a South Pole subsidiary? When will the market crash and the Fed be replaced for lying about poor performance?
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Angry and embarrassed, France summoned the U.S. ambassador Wednesday to respond to the revelations by WikiLeaks that the U.S. National Security Agency eavesdropped on three successive French presidents and other top officials. Prime Minister Manuel Valls said the U.S. must do everything it can, and quickly, to "repair the damage". France will not tolerate any action threatening its security and fundamental interests."
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"Nailed It". Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/24/2015.
Presented with little comment aside to ask - why does anyone listen to these idiots anyway?
Bloomberg  on Q1 2015  US-GDP growth. Consensus  Estimate
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"We've won a few months' respite but the problem will come back," France's Marine Le Pen said of Greece... "Today we're talking about Grexit, tomorrow it will be Brexit, and the day after tomorrow it will be Frexit." We shouldn’t need Le Pen to voice the obvious. But that no other ‘leader’, save for Nigel Farage, puts it into these crystal clear terms, does tell us a lot about all other European leaders. And unfortunately that includes Alexis Tsipras. Though we hold out some hope for him yet. Here’s hoping he will not sign that deal, whichever it may be in the end, and thereby set in motion the disintegration of the unholy Union.
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If one excludes just three items: Obamacare, the "harsh winter", and near record inventory re-stocking in anticipation of a spending deluge that never comes, Q1 GDP would have tumbled nearly 2.0%.
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We had wondered at the relative lack of response by Russia to extended sanctions and asset freezes in Europe and now we see the first major move. Having confirmed new counter-sanctions this morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin just threw The IMF (US taxpayers), and Ukraine's 'American' finance minister under the bus... "Moscow can no longer give Ukraine gas discounts due to the current drop in oil prices." The price must be on level of other countries like Poland, he added.
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Just as consensus had expected, after printing at -0.7% in the first revision to Q1 GDP, the final revised GDP print for the March 31-ended quarter came in at -0.2%, confirming the third negative GDP quarter in one recovery cycle since 2011 (all of which have come in the first quarter of the year as global winter cooling fans will have you know)- the first time this has happened since the 1950s.
[ Still everything is OK ?..  to whom? .. to big Corporation and bank owners of course ]
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"Even if a deal between Greece and its creditors is struck, the problem isn't solved," warns Saxobank CIO Steen Jakobsen, which leaves the door open to a snap election being called shortly and a referendum on continued membership of the EU just weeks later. Debt refinancing will be the first issue, with the country needing a significant discount. But how can the country secure that, asks Jakobsen, when the government is unwilling to bring in significant reforms?
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Collapse is not an event, it is a process. As a result, systemic collapse doesn't lend itself to statistical calculations of probability. Processes are driven by dynamics, not odds.

If debt and leverage expand while collateral and income decrease, the system becomes systemically more fragile and prone to destabilization. The financial system is dynamic and has multiple inputs; on its current setting, the system will become increasingly fragile. If alternative policies were put in place, it could become increasingly resilient.
 
Systems with no conceptual or practical pathway to contraction and reduced complexity/fixed costs are more at risk of collapse than systems with institutional pathways for successful reductions in debt, credit, income, fixed costs and complexity.
 
How many institutions have proven pathways for becoming smaller, leaner, and flatter in organizational structure? Very few, as the default setting for the past 60 years has been expansion and more of everythingLess of everything does not compute.
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/24/2015 - 07:37
  • Greece Handed New Terms as Tsipras Approaches Decision Time (BBG)
  • As U.S. Probes $12.7 Trillion Treasury Market, Trader Talk Is a Good Place to Start (BBG)
  • Signs Swedish QE Backfiring as Liquidity Evaporates (BBG)
  • ECB approves ELA funding requested by Greece- banking source (Reuters)
  • Greek Millennials Can't Find Work But Actually Want to Keep the Euro (BBG)
  • Greek deal or not, the euro is now a different beast (Reuters)
  • Promoter’s Arrest Sheds Light on Cynk’s $6 Billion Surge (BBG)
  • The World's Biggest Economies Are About to Feel the Impact of China's Slowdown (BBG)
  • Senate Clears Trade Bill’s Way to Passage (WSJ)
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And it started off all so well: the market, blissfully ignoring what we wrote just yesterday in Why The IMF Will Reject The Latest Greek Proposal In Just Two Numbers, was in full blown levitation mode overnight when it sent Japanese stocks to their highest close since 1996 (pre dot com) and with the Chinese central bank doing its best to keep levitating local stocks away from the abyss, pushing the SHCOMP up another 2.5%. Euro Stoxx 50 went from flat to down 1% and is bouncing. As BBG's Richard Breslow adds, predictably, the market is taking this as a ploy, not an end game. Of course, this is precisely the "Bear Stearns is fine" conventional wisdom that Cramer was spewing days before Bear failed because nobody could fathom how anyone can conceive of a worst case scenario. Only it isn't nobody: we reported before of a Goldman's "Conspiracy Theory" Stunner: A Greek Default Is Precisely What The ECB Wants. 
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Who could have possibly foreseen that the IMF would throw up all over the Greek "proposal"... aside from this post here "Why The IMF Will Reject The Latest Greek Proposal In Just Two Numbers" yesterday afternoon of course. In any event, moments ago Bloomberg reported that just as we wrote here yesterday afternoon, there is no deal and that Greek PM Alexis Tsipras told his associates that creditors not accepting equivalent fiscal measures has never happened before, according to a Greek govt official, who asked not to be named in line with policy. Creditors “not accepting parametric measures has never happened before. Neither in Ireland, nor in Portugal, nor anywhere. This strange stance can hide two scenarios; they either don’t want an agreement or serve specific interests in Greece.”
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WASHINGTON BLOG

And Why Sierra Club, Greenpeace, Etc., Were Silent About It
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Here are the nine dynamics of decay that lead to collapse:
1. complacency and intellectual laziness
2. profound political disunity
3. rise of unproductive complexity
4. those bearing the sacrifices opt out/quit
5. decay of effective leadership
6. rise of bread and circuses social welfare and entertainment to distract/placate restive citizenry
7. decline of wealth-producing capacity–status quo living off financial trickery
8. sclerosis–status quo controlled by vested interests
9. resource depletion/environmental damage
All of these dynamics are currently in play around the globe.
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE

ISIS Video Shows Horrific Murder Of 16 People . Video  In the first round of executions, five terrified men can be seen being lowered into the water while locked in a cage together. 
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The West’s Moral Panic Behind The Threat Of Radical Islam. By Scott Burchill. Governments contrive moral panics to consolidate domestic political support. An alleged “existential” foreign threat is particularly useful.
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NOTICIAS EN SPANISH

Hay tres millones de desplazados en Irak. Gustavo Gerrtner. La cifra llegará a los 10 millones, casi un tercio de la población, hacia fin de año
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Club Bilderberg. Esta es la verdadera estrategia. Carlos Santamaria
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Vuelta del año Mapuche De pie y en lucha, celebrando la vida. Darío Aranda
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El regreso del activismo militante. Pepe Gutiérrez-Álvarez
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Siria.  Objetivos de una gran guerra "proxy". Nazanin Armanian
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RT-SPUTNIK & LATEST SHOWS

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PRESS TV

Russia militants vow allegiance to ISIL. Wed Jun 24, 2015 Takfiri militants in four regions of Russia's Caucasus pledge allegiance to ISIL.
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Syria forces secure oil field vicinity. Wed Jun 24, 2015 The Syrian Army and pro-government forces secure the area surrounding an oil field near the ancient city of Palmyra.
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‘Up to 2k Russians fighting for ISIL’. Wed Jun 24, 2015 An official says up to 2,000 Russians are fighting in the ranks of the ISIL terrorist group.
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