lunes, 22 de junio de 2015

JUN 22 SIT EC y POL



JUN 22 SIT EC y POL

ZERO HEDGE



Under pressure from all sides (and most importantly from Mario Draghi who holds the fate of the Greek banking sector in his hands) Greece looks to have folded and is now set to accept an extension of its current bailout program. PM Alexis Tsipras now faces an uphill battle to unite Syriza around what is likely to be an unpopular agreement. If he fails, the country could plunge into political and social turmoil. 
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Wherever government officials sense a credible threat to their power, they invariably take every opportunity to crush it by any means necessary: this is the first principle of how governments function, and every libertarian is all too familiar with it. this latest tragedy, you can be sure, will be used to accomplish the same anti-libertarian ends: the calls to investigate “hate groups,” and even to ban “hate speech,” are already being heard. Of course, who and what constitutes a “hate group,” and who is hating whom are subjective evaluations that no government official is qualified to make...
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In a remarkable document, which is not posted at the English version of the website of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine, but which is widely reported outside the United States, including Russia, Poroshenko, in Ukrainian (not in English), has petitioned the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (as it is being widely quoted in English):  "I ask the court to acknowledge that the law ‘on the removal of the presidential title from Viktor Yanukovych' as unconstitutional.”
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“The real problem is the following: we have paleolithic emotions; medieval institutions; and god-like technology. And it is terrifically dangerous, and it is now approaching a point of crisis overall.”
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Over the past several months, tensions between Russia and the West have escalated meaningfully. While it’s certainly true that, since Crimea, US-Russia relations have deteriorated steadily (baskets of potatoes notwithstanding), recent events suggests the situation may come to a head more quickly than either side cares to admit. In the latest provocation, Europe has extended economic sanctions against Moscow for another six months or, until the Kremlin agrees to abide by the terms of the Minsk agreement which Europe, on the word of Kiev, assumes Moscow is violating. Meanwhile, US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter blasts Russian "nuclear saber rattling."
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In the latest populist act of America's largest retailer, minimum-wage-raising, mysterious store-closing Wal-Mart has decided to remove all Confederate Flag merchandise from its stores. Apparently it will continue to stock handguns, rifles, crossbows, ammunition, and other land-of-the-free-to-choose merchandise.
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If the United States and China are supposed to be such “great friends”, why are both sides acting as if war is in our future? There were years of diplomatic troubles before Japan finally made the decision to launch a “surprise” attack on Pearl Harbor. Right now, it appears we are moving into a similar period of diplomatic trouble with China.
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Despite the market's exuberant hope that everything will be contained and business-as-usual will resume shortly in Europe, the message from the wealthiest Greeks is very different... As The FT reports, not since the nation's civil war has Greek society been riven by deep divisions between left and right as Greece's financial plight reopens old wounds. "The government are incompetent and are ruining the country because they are communists and do not understand reality," said Maria, a banker. "But there has to be a deal. The EU has to save us," she said, fingering her golden necklace. "Right?"
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"Over the entire period from 1978 to 2014, CEO compensation increased about 997 percent," The Economic Policy Institute notes. Meanwhile, thanks in part to a stock market rally corporate management teams helped to engineer, the CEO-to-worker comp ratio is now back near its all-time high.
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Stock markets in the US and Europe are in for a correction, while the euro is set to rise, according to Saxo Bank’s Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen, nomatter what happens between Greece and its creditors. Steen also looks at the impact a rate hike from the US Federal Reserve would have on USD and what currencies could gain once the Fed decides to move on rates, noting that "the consensus has it wrong on the timing of US rate hike," as the credit cycle topped in June 2014. He believes that commodities and metals in particular offer opportunities for investors.
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Net of the latest ELA increase, when adding some €38 billion in collateralized EFSF bonds and other collateral usage, we find that we have not only reached parity but crossed it: as of this moment Greek deposits, which are generously estimated at €120 billion but in reality are lower, are less than the total ECB claims on Greek banks and the Bank of Greece, amounting to €126 billion. And with that the possibility of a Greek bail-in which could amount to up to 100% of total Greek deposits, becomes all too real.
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Description: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/fp_thumb/images/user3303/imageroot/20150622_NIMBY.jpg
The phenomenon of homeowners objecting to new development is called NIMBYism, which stands for "Not In My Back Yard." The premise behind this is that homeowners don't want to risk any changes that could adversely affect their living space or the value of their property. However, it's easy to see another motive behind NIMBYism: greed. As an investor of a highly leveraged asset, the average homeowner has every reason to inflate the price of their home as much as they can. NIMBYism also contributes to inequality... and perpetuates the two-class society that we see today.
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Collapse, Part 1: Greece. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/22/2015

When systems are broke and broken, collapse is the only way forward.
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Goldman's "Conspiracy Theory" Stunner: A Greek Default Is Precisely What The ECB Wants. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/22/2015
"... the immediate aftermath of such a non-payment will be to push bond yields up across the periphery. This rise in the fiscal risk premium (Exhibit 3) will of course be limited, because the ECB will likely accelerate QE, including via the Bundesbank. That will push rate differentials, especially longer-dated ones, against EUR/$. We estimate that the initial fiscal risk premium effect could be three big figures, while the subsequent QE effect could be worth around seven big figures"
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It would appear, whether by plan or unintended consequence, Obama's dream of a single-payer socialized healthcare is getting closer by the day, and as WSJ reports, drastically increasing the risk that ObamaCare is creating oligopolies, with the predictable results of higher costs, lower quality and less innovation. The five largest commercial health insurers in the U.S. have contracted merger fever, and if the logic of ObamaCare prevails, this exercise will conclude with all five fusing into one monster conglomerate.
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Early hope began to fade as nothing appeared to be settled... and then The BBC unleahed the ultimate "Greece is rescued" quote from an EU Minister. Bond risk is now collapsing (PORTUG -55bps!) as Bunds & TSYs are dumped, Greek stocks are up 9%, and all European Bourses are surging as even EURUSD is rallying (breaking its earlier correlation)...
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"Greece Is Rescued", Economy Minister Tells BBC. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/22/2015. While we have seen countless such reports in recent weeks and months, and take each and every one with a mine of salt, the reason ES algos just took out overnight highs was due to a BBC interview - which will be broadcast "shortly" - in which BBC economic editor Robert Peston was told by the Greek economic minister George Stathakis that "he believes Greece's new proposals to balance the government's books have broken the deadlock with its creditors." He said he expects eurozone government heads to issue a communique later today that will say there is now a basis for a formal agreement with Athens to complete the current bailout programme and release €7.2bn of vital funds.
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"A commercial banker said about €400m had been withdrawn via ATMs over the weekend, bringing total outflows to €2bn between Friday and Sunday, a number confirmed by a central bank official. Greek banks have imposed an unofficial ceiling of €3,000 on walk-in withdrawals, the commercial banker added."
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Senior Russian officials said Kremlin lawyers are studying France and Belgium’s seizure of Russian government assets in the two countries as part of a court settlement to compensate shareholders of Yukos, the privately owned oil company that was shut down by Moscow.
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Speculation is rife as the Eurogroup announces a much earlier than expected press conference. The exuberant expectations "priced in" to markets are fading fast as traders fear the short nature of the meeting combined with dysphoria from Schaeuble suggest no deal is close and new Greek proposals remain far from adequate for its European "partners." Local reports suggest this brings into doubt whether this evening's EU leaders' meeting will go ahead.
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Today will go down in history as one of the worst times in history to be invested in the stock market. Virtually no one believes this statement. That is why it will prove to be true. Every valuation method known to mankind is flashing red. A crash is baked in the cake. Will the trigger be Greek default, a Chinese market crash, a Fed rate increase, a derivative bet going boom, a Middle East event, someone doing something stupid in the South China Sea, a Ukrainian eruption, or a butterfly flapping its wings? When greed turns to fear, for whatever reason, the house of cards will collapse for the 3rd time in 15 years. Thank the “brilliant” bankers at the Federal Reserve.
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/22/2015 - 07:47
  • Mood brightens after latest Greek offer to creditors (Reuters)
  • ECB's Nowotny - Greek banks have funding extension for today (Reuters)
  • Any Greece deal must match party manifesto, minister says (Reuters)
  • Greece says now up to lenders to move on an agreement (Reuters)
  • Greece sends wrong documents to monitors... Again (FT)
  • U.S. won't let Russia 'drag us back to the past': Pentagon chief (Reuters)
  • Belgium unblocks part of Russian diplomatic missions’ frozen accounts (Tass)
  • Fed Scoop Heralded Era of Closed Doors for $100,000 Newsletters (BBG)
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today is Friday taken to the nth degree, with the markets having already declared if not victory then the death of all Greek "contagion" leverage, following news that a new Greek proposal was sent yesterday (which as we summarized does not include any of the demanded by the Troika pension cuts), ignoring news that Greece had again sent Belgium the wrong proposal which the market has taken as a sign of capitulation by Tsipras, and as a result futures are surging higher by nearly 1%, the German DAX is up a whopping 3.1%, on track for the biggest one day gain in three years, Greek stocks up over 8%, German and US Treasurys sliding while Greek and peripheral bonds are surging.
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WASHINGTON BLOG

The theme this week is collapse. It’s a big, complex topic because there are as many types of collapse as there are systems. Some systems appear stable on the surface but collapse suddenly; others visibly decay for decades before finally slipping beneath the waves of history, and some go through stages of collapse.
Which brings us to Greece.
I have written extensively about Greece and the doomed financial arrangement known as the euro for many years–for example: Greece, Please Do The Right Thing: Default Now (June 1, 2011).
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NOTICIAS EN SPANISH

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