NUEVA RECESSION MUNDIAL
ACECHA
"Deleveraging? What Deleveraging?"
No, that's not the
title of a Zero Hedge article from 2011, 2012, 2013 and so on (because we have
written on the concept of global "deleveraging" simply because there
has been none).
It is, however, the
title of the 16th Geneva Report on the world economy, released this morning by the Center for
Economic Policy Research,
which merely confirms, once again, everything we have said, namely that while
the Fed's liquidity injections have boosted the stock market, everyone else has
been levering up as much as possible, with corporations once again in debt to record
levels using easy debt
proceeds to buy-back their own stock (and push their equity-linked exec comp
into the stratosphere), while consumers have loaded up on term debt, mostly in
the form of student loans, to pay for their increasingly unaffordable lifestyle
(and certainly not for tuition or textbooks), while defaulting, not deleveraging, on mortgages. That's what we call it.
The Geneva Report
has far harsher words.
A “poisonous combination” of record debt and slowing
growth suggest the global economy could be heading for another crisis, a
hard-hitting report will warn on Monday. It warns of a “poisonous combination of high and rising global debt and
slowing nominal GDP [gross domestic product], driven by both slowing real
growth and falling inflation”.
The total burden of
world debt, private and public, has risen from 160 per cent of national income
in 2001 to almost 200 per cent after the crisis struck in 2009 and 215 per cent
in 2013.
“Contrary to widely held beliefs, the world has not yet begun to delever
and the global debt to GDP ratio is still growing, breaking new highs,” the
report said.
Luigi Buttiglione,
one of the report’s authors and head of global strategy at hedge fund Brevan Howard,
said:
“Over my career I have seen many so-called miracle economies – Italy in
the 1960s, Japan, the Asian tigers, Ireland, Spain and now perhaps China – and
they all ended after a build-up of debt.”
RELATED ARTICLE
Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 09/28/2014
"I should be clear that market peaks often go through
several months of top formation, so the near-term remains uncertain. Still, it
has become urgent for investors to carefully examine all risk exposures. When
extreme valuations on historically reliable measures, lopsided bullishness, and
compressed risk premiums are joined by deteriorating market internals, widening
credit spreads, and a breakdown in trend uniformity, it’s advisable to make
certain that the long position you have is the long position you want
over the remainder of the market cycle. As conditions stand, we currently observe the ingredients of a market crash."
By John Hussman. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-28/ingredients-market-crash-john-hussman-explains-why-take-concerns-permabear-seriously
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