THE CRASH IS COMING. THE WARNING “BABSON BREAK” is REAL
AN INTRODUCTION to
this topic was written by Jeff Thomas.
Here an extract:
BABSON’S WARNING By Jeff Thomas http://www.internationalman.com/articles/babsons-warning “[A] crash is coming, and it may be
terrific. .... The vicious circle will get in full swing and the result will be
a serious business depression. There may be a stampede for selling which will
exceed anything that the Stock Exchange has ever witnessed. Wise are those
investors who now get out of debt.” The
statements were made by investor Roger
Babson at a speech at the Annual Business Conference in Massachusetts on 5th
September, 1929. News of his speech reached Wall Street by mid-afternoon,
causing the market to retreat about 3%. The sudden decline was named the
“Babson Break.”
FOR AMERICAN ECONOMISTS THE COLLAPSE IS INEVITABLE:
result of deregulation, bailouts to financial speculation fraud, untenable huge
debt, and feudal-parasitic-rentism, plus QEs, those are the formula for implosion.
The days of this economy are counted. To
Michael Hudson: “The Game is Over for
Our Post-Feudalistic Economy”.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bNujtooZos
To him we are trapped in a web of debt and
derivatives, that is a time bomb ready to explode. There Will Be No Economic Recovery. Prepare Yourself Accordingly, said Stefan Molyneux. Winter 2014, will be the last Economic crash,
said Peter Shift, from London. Check
this interview from Max Kaiser to Michael Hudson: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRzJ8rMP-WY
. Check also this debate” Peter "Socialist" Schiff _ Exposed by
MMT's Michael Hudson” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjY5Y-eQZTw
and this one “Michael Hudson: Situation
worse than Piketty describes by kjr63 1”.
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FOR FOREIGN ECONOMISTS LIKE MATHIAS CHANG in http://futurefastforward.com/financial-analysis.html
, the collapse of the US economy is real and is coming soon because is based on
Fraud and Abuse, as Phoenix Capital Research
(12/9/14) stated clearly in It's
Official: The Financial System Is Built On Fraud And Abuse - By Phoenix Capital
Research (12/9/14)
FOR DMITRY ORLOV in “How the Ongoing U.S. Economic Collapse Compares to the
U.S.S.R. Experience” http://www.munknee.com/how-the-ongoing-u-s-economic-collapse-compares-to-the-u-s-s-r-experience-dmitry-orlov/ there are symmetries between the Soviet Union
collapse an the US today, similarities that justify reasoning by analogy. Check
slide 3. Orlov also said that US
faces many of the same problems that contribute to the Soviet collapse. Check slide 5. Here
is stated that many of the problems that sunk the Soviet Union are now
endangering the United States as well such as:
- unwinnable wars (Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Syria –added)
- a huge, well-equipped, very expensive military, with no clear mission, bogged down in fighting Muslim insurgents, and creating an out of control military budget
- declining in production due to energy shortfalls linked to peaking oil production,
- a persistently unfavorable trade balance, resulting in runaway foreign debt and
- a delusional self-image, an inflexible ideology, and an unresponsive political system.
Slide 6: An economic collapse is amazing to observe, and very interesting if described
accurately and in detail. Economies are susceptible to “cascaded failure”
See image location at: http://www.energybulletin.net/image/uploads/23259/MScan6.png
An economic arrangement can continue
for quite some time after it becomes untenable, through sheer inertia but at
some point a tide of broken promises and invalidated assumptions sweeps it all
out to sea.
One such untenable arrangement rests
on the notion that it is possible to perpetually borrow more and more money
from abroad, to pay for more and more energy imports, while the price of these
imports continues to double every few years.
Free money with which to buy energy
equals free energy, and free energy does not occur in nature. This must
therefore be a transient condition. When the flow of energy snaps back toward
equilibrium, much of the US economy will be forced to shut down.
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According to SRSrocco in
“The COLLAPSE OF THE
U.S. ECONOMY IS CLOSER THAN YOU MAY THINK”
http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/08/collapse-of-us-economy-is-closer-than.html
I believe we are much closer to a
collapse of the U.S. economy than most are led to believe. To understand just
how fragile the situation has become, presented below are the 5 stages of collapse from a slide by Dmitry
Orlov:
See image location at” http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IG1WjiDR5N4/TkLHhM4WsgI/AAAAAAAAAlQ/v5SpwJx5xV8/s320/srs1.jpg
The U.S. financial system died in
2008 when Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and AIG went bankrupt. As Jim Willie
stated in one of his articles, “Pumping blood into dead corpses will not revive the system.”
That is not an exact quote…but you get the point. The big banks are basically
dead. This is the full description of a STAGE 1: per Orlov:
STAGE 1: FINANCIAL COLLAPSE. Faith in "business as usual" is lost. The future
is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be
assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become
insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.
If we read the whole description we find that just about everything listed above has occurred except the part where savings are wiped out. The FDIC moving the insured $100,000 amount up to unlimited postponed the inevitable. Risk cannot be assessed correctly anymore as the FASB has allowed the banks to MARK TO MODEL their assets. Thus, if the banks did MARK TO MARKET their assets, they would indeed be insolvent. And lastly, banks are not lending which proves the point that access to capital is for the most part…lost.
This brings us to the next stage which it looks like we are getting ready to enter in very soon. Stage 2 per Orlov:
STAGE 2: COMMERCIAL COLLAPSE. Faith that "the market shall provide" is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.
With the recent S&P downgrade of U.S. debt, the move into stage 2 has been set. Watching the markets in the past few days, there is a sense that “ALL IS NOT RIGHT”. If we look around the world there is this almost frantic effort to pump up banks, stock & bond markets. This is causing extreme volatility as markets act schizophrenically down one day, then up the next.
How close are we into entering stage 2? That’s a good question, but if you just take a good whiff of the air around you…it seems very close. Good barometers of the event are the actions of gold and silver. You can read more about the 5 stages of collapse Click here ...
If we read the whole description we find that just about everything listed above has occurred except the part where savings are wiped out. The FDIC moving the insured $100,000 amount up to unlimited postponed the inevitable. Risk cannot be assessed correctly anymore as the FASB has allowed the banks to MARK TO MODEL their assets. Thus, if the banks did MARK TO MARKET their assets, they would indeed be insolvent. And lastly, banks are not lending which proves the point that access to capital is for the most part…lost.
This brings us to the next stage which it looks like we are getting ready to enter in very soon. Stage 2 per Orlov:
STAGE 2: COMMERCIAL COLLAPSE. Faith that "the market shall provide" is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.
With the recent S&P downgrade of U.S. debt, the move into stage 2 has been set. Watching the markets in the past few days, there is a sense that “ALL IS NOT RIGHT”. If we look around the world there is this almost frantic effort to pump up banks, stock & bond markets. This is causing extreme volatility as markets act schizophrenically down one day, then up the next.
How close are we into entering stage 2? That’s a good question, but if you just take a good whiff of the air around you…it seems very close. Good barometers of the event are the actions of gold and silver. You can read more about the 5 stages of collapse Click here ...
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For WSJ and Zerohedge.com the crash
coming could be certain since our economy have similar symptoms as those studied by Babson in 1931, a prediction
called today "The Babson
Break" warning.
The symptoms referred at that time, applied to our time
are (a) the cozy relation between the Federal and certain Banks + big companies,
and (b) the nasty business on sovereign
debt by speculators “vulture capital” in poor and developing countries like
Argentina, and (c), (d), among others.
The WSJ of Sept 2014
refers the "The Babson Break" under their light of “The Federal Reserve's too cozy relations with Banks”
Here
the WSJ article:
THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S TOO COZY
RELATIONS WITH BANKS.
Working at the Fed shouldn't be an audition for a Wall
Street job. Waiting periods and other reforms are needed.
By Stephen Haber And Ross Levine. Sept. 9, 2014
“One would assume that if the financial media
became aware that the Fed was leaking information to certain key investors,
that this would make major headlines.
After all, the Fed is supposed to be both independent and transparent.
And leaking information to certain individuals ahead of
release would border on abetting insider trading. That would be truly outrageous.”
Of course, perhaps we are assuming too much that anyone
would do anything about the clear evidence that there are leaks. After all, Ben
Bernanke openly lied to Congress about monetizing the debt and nothing happened
to him. So what difference would it make if the Fed was leaking information to
certain well connected groups?
Well, from a market perspective, it would make a HUGE
difference. Markets might be right about the value of close relations with the
Fed. A paper recently presented at the NBER by Anna Cieslak, Adair Morse and
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen —titled "Stock Returns
over the FOMC Cycle"—finds evidence suggesting that the Fed has
been leaking information.
Although the information from
these lesser-known meetings is not released to the public until weeks later,
the authors found that stock prices respond immediately after the meetings,
suggesting that people and financial institutions are trading and possibly
profiting on information contained in those meetings. Source: It's Official: THE
FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS BUILT ON FRAUD AND ABUSE By Phoenix Capital Research
–Zero Hedge http://online.wsj.com/articles/stephen-haber
and-ross-levine-the-federal-reserves-too-cozy-relations-with-banks-1410304778
Of course, it could
be coincidence that the markets react as soon as the Fed finishes its FOMC
meetings (several weeks before the contents of the meetings released to the
public).
It could, of course,
also be coincidence that the stocks for various financial firms rally
when an individual with close relationships to those firms is announced as
Treasury Secretary.
A growing body of
academic research indicates that the stock market values these bank-Fed
connections. A 2013 National Bureau of Economic Research paper by Daron
Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton, "The Value of Connections in Turbulent Times: Evidence from
the United States," provides a case in point.
In November 2008, when it was announced that then-New York Fed President
Timothy Geithner would be nominated for Treasury secretary, the stock prices of
financial firms with which he had close personal connections soared relative to
those of other financial firms. Those same stock prices plummeted when his
nomination briefly ran into problems over his taxes. http://online.wsj.com/articles/stephen-haber-and-ross-levine-the-federal-reserves-too-cozy-relations-with-banks-1410304778
This is why
Capitalism is failing in the US: because not only is it now clear that the US
economy is, for the most part, a rigged game… but that NO
ONE involved in the rigging is punished.
You cannot build a financial system on fraud and cheating,
anymore than you can build a house on a faulty foundation. The structure might hold up for a
while, but eventually it will all come crashing down.
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Published also in www.zerohedge AS : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-11/its-official-financial-system-build-fraud-and-abuse
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RELATED ARTICLES:
THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS BUILT ON
FRAUD AND ABUSE By Phoenix Capital Research –Zero Hedge http://online.wsj.com/articles/stephen-haber
and-ross-levine-the-federal-reserves-too-cozy-relations-with-banks-1410304778
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The
Great Depression | Prepare and Prosper Jul 22, 2011 - Babson was responsible
for the “Babson Break”, a three percent market drop that followed his September
1929 warning. www.prepareandprosper.net How
Did The Crisis Happen?
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Calling
the Crash of '29 - Young Research & Publishing Inc. September 5,
2014
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How
to see into the future - FT.com September 5, 2014
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Babson's
Warning | Zero Hedge September 15, 2014
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prudent
investor newsletters September 17,
2014
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