viernes, 10 de julio de 2020

JUL 9 20 ND SIT EC y POL



JUL 9 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

After the US reported more than 60k new cases on Tuesday for the first time, the country repeated that feat on Wednesday...
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ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Another day, another dip-buying panic to rescue the Nasdaq from the terrible outcome of a down-day, instead another record high.
Overnight was the standard slow and steady rally and then these events hit, taking the shine off the gains
But as soon as Europe closed, US stocks were magically bid once again, with only Nasdaq back in the green...
See Chart:

We note that Biden gave an economic speech in the last hour and appeared to spook stocks with these
  • 1520ET *BIDEN: ENDING THE ERA OF 'SHAREHOLDER CAPITALISM' IS OVERDUE
  • 1530ET *CHINA IPHONE JUNE SELL-IN DATA WEAKER THAN EXPECTED: NOMURA
and then this sent stocks vertical...
See Chart:

Is someone "meddling with the primal forces of nature..."?
And bear in mind that while Nasdaq roars to record-er and record-er highs, the rest of the major US equity indices all topped a month ago...
See Chart:

FANG stocks soared to a new record high, reaching the most overbought since the February peak...
See Chart:

Virus 'Fear' rose notably today...
See Chart:

It's different this time...
See Chart:
Nasdaq 100 vs S&P500

And don't forget, China stock market capitalization  is exploding too..
See Chart:
Treasury yields tumbling on the day with considerable flattening (30Y -9bps, 2Y -1bp)...
See Chart:

The yield curve is now at its flattest in two months...
See Chart:

The DXY dollar index rallied today after making a death cross on Wednesday...
See Chart:

WTI tumbled early on the headlines above, was ramped back to tag $40... then fell back...
See Chart:

Finally, there's the total decoupling between stocks and bonds...
See Chart:
Nasdaq  vs 30Y Yield

What could go wrong?
See Chart:
So to sum the day up... Dow down, S&P down, Small Caps down, Transports down, Crude down, Bond yields down... but Nasdaq up thanks to FANG new record highs.
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"Recessions don’t usually result in personal income soaring, but this one has thanks to government support around the world."
SEE CHART: 
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Billionaires teach art of getting easy money (scam) from common people Is it legal?
 Trump: advertiser of stock market.. Is it a dirty ‘speculative business” of Trump?.
"They encourage people to go from training wheels to driving motorcycles."
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It certainly doesn't help when President Trump, overlooks the downturn in the economy, nevertheless permanent job loss and deep economic scarring, by tweeting out to the tens of millions, just how well the stock market is doing. 
As the Nasdaq soars to record highs Sentiment Trader shows Trump's tweeting about the stocks increases. 
SEE CHART
The Trumps Nasdaq stock Market Tweet –or- meter

Trump is an advertiser of the stock market - tens of millions see him tweeting about how wonderful it is - and as human nature shows, there's been a massive increase in Robinhood accounts of people who want to join the party on Wall Street with zero-commission trades
Actually, the type of people coming to the party get sloppy and make mistakes. 
Richard Dobatse, a Navy medic in San Diego, is one of those inexperienced day traders who lost big. Just how big? Well, he lost $860,000 in March
Dobatse was buying and selling stocks on Robinhood. He funded his account with $15,000 in credit card advances - even took out two $30,000 home equity loans to trade the most speculative stocks and options, with hopes to pay off his debts. At one point earlier this year, his account had $1 million - now in freefall, the account is worth $6,956, reported The New York Times
When he is doing his trading, he won't want to eat," said his wife, Tashika Dobatse, with whom he has three children. "He would have nightmares."
This has led to enormous losses for people like Richard Dobatse, a Navy medic who took out two home equity loans then watched his portfolio fall from over $1m to around $7k over the last few months. His wife told us the economic and psychological consequences have been dire.
— Nathaniel Popper (@nathanielpopper) July 8, 2020
'Stocks only go up,' as Barstool's David Portnoy has said - Americans during the pandemic, with no sports to watch, started day trading with their Trump stimulus checks on Robinhood. It was perfect timing to "BTFD" as the Federal Reserve printed trillions of dollars, with some of that money finding a home in equity markets, creating one of the largest and quickest speculative rallies in history. 
ELECTRONIC SPECUL: THE FASTEST SCAM IN THE MARKET= trumpist ‘art’?
The Times said in 1Q20, "Robinhood users traded nine times as many shares as E-Trade customers, and 40 times as many shares as Charles Schwab customers, per dollar in the average customer account in the most recent quarter. They also bought and sold 88 times as many risky options contracts as Schwab customers, relative to the average account size." 
SEE CHART
Velocity of Options Trading at Leading Retail brokers

PATH TO SUICIDE:  love for money vs. love for the family
The dangers, shown in the Dobatse's horror story - were nationally recognized when a young ROBINHOOD USER COMMITTED SUICIDE after logging into the app and seeing his speculative trades blown-up, with a balance of negative $730,000.
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"If bond yields cant rise on strong data, it beggars the question as to what will happen when the economic surprise indicator begins to turn down again - as it will surely do."
SEE CHART:
Historically in US  Nominal GDP Growth closely tracked Money Supply  growth
See More interesting charts at:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

His infrastructure plan will be released next week...
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"...ending the era of shareholder capitalism is overdude..."
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We wanted.. we go it.  How much the US is going to lose with T military blackmails? 
Pretty soon, the world will be divided between
the yuan-sphere, and a dollar-sphere.
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Hysteria or big business for Pharma & other profiting from COVID?
“Look, it’s gonna end very badly...”
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NATURAL DISASTER vs HUMAN DISASTER  can we PREVENTED
Hugo Adan
7/11/2020
My premise is : If we know they are coming then we can prevent their effects
This is my reaction to the art below.  I will skip all chart & maps (see source)
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...and what lessons learned from Wave 1 should you apply to Wave 2?
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First we have to distinguish  between “Another crisis  that could be a human creation like war from  natural disaster”  like hurracains, floods ++. They are  totally  different things. SO, If we define them correctly  we can prevent both of them.  
The east coast’s hurricane season runs June 1 through November 30. Already there have been four named storms (out of 13 to 19 predicted), and more hurricanes than normal are expected this year. Peak activity should happen between late August and early October:
See Chart

In the west, fires have been getting worse for years; and this year’s season is predicted to be “above normal”:
See MAP

The floods  Wave 2 were to hit in late winter/early Spring 2021, these are the US regions at greatest risk of experiencing floods during that time:
See Chart:
So, what would happen if a covid-19 Wave 2 requiring a serious lockdown gets disrupted by one or more of these natural disasters? Where hundreds of thousands to millions of people suddenly have to evacuate to parts unknown when a health quarantine is supposed to be in place?
The short [WRONG] answer is: Nothing good, said the author of Art.  BUT
If we know Time and Place we can do many thing to prevent/aliviate  the prob.

HERE THE RIGHT ANSWER:
First, identify your bug-out destination should you be forced to relocate under these conditions. 
Second, prepare your bug-out checklist and make sure you maintain all needed supplies in reserve should you need to leave home in a hurry. If low, head out now to fill any gaps.
And third, make sure you’re as prepared as possible for successfully dealing with a second covid-19 wave.
Regarding HUMAN DISASTERS like WARS or WW3
1-      Don’t look  for any conflict during natural disaster described above
2-      Today there is not small enemy. All countries can have nuke missiles
3-      WW3 is a global disaster that we should avoid by all means.
The 1st one is dismantling nuclear weapons world-wide.  
The 2nd is closing big Corp that  manufacture weapons of mass destruction.  The 3rd is dismantling world  Institutions like PENTA-NATO  and their similar in RU-China.
4-      People consciousness against WARS & WW3 plus MOVILIZATION of the NATION to streets is a very important factor to prevent WW3
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BIDEN is not the problem, THE PROBLEM IS TRUMP
Hugo Adan
7/9/2020

This is my reaction to 2 articles:
1-
Change will only come if voters decide
to elect a new Administration and Congress.
SEE CHART:
2-
"I don’t know what’s in Biden’s University of Delaware papers but he really doesn’t want people seeing them."
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BIDEN is not the problem, THE PROBLEM IS TRUMP
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Apparently T is above the Law on Tax evasion. But T has to transfer power to VP Pence and ASAP. By Law trump  can’t use the Presidency  to make political propaganda for elections.
THEN any Court in the US  -if the Supreme don’t ACT – can demand Trump  total  resignation to Power and suspend his participation in Election.
That will ignite the whole Nation rebellion Agst Trump  with serious effects on his candidacy.
Then the Supreme Court may negotiate with T the cut of any Jail process on him if he respect the 2 conditions above (resign to the Presid & quit from election participation)  but with totally different argument:
1-      Trump is driving the Nation to a civil war with predictable effects on the FED Union. 
2-      Trump is putting the life of the whole nation at risk with WW3. T was instigating WAR 3 Agst China-RU.
They are allies and they will respond together.
Our Nation will be hit & MAD will be the most sure effect.  Not winners
To avoid this human catastrophe the Supreme Court  may publicly demand his resignation to Power & will nominate  Pence as transitory President. 
IF Pence don’t accepted, THE Supreme Court will nominate one independent Senator as interim President. 
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"My sources tell me there's a lot of activity..."
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"I won the Mueller Witch Hunt, and others, and now I have to keep fighting in a politically corrupt New York."
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

Another imperialist aggression on VEN
"...detected an aircraft with a US hull number intruding Venezuelan airspace overnight 8 July and neutralized it with military jets..." 
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US-PENTA’ OPIUM DREAM:
Troubling relations with the West in general and the U.S. in particular are increasingly driving Beijing and Moscow into each other's arms...
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China stock market is regulated: it won’t create the speculative business of US
"...it appears that the boom-bust was one effective way for the poor to be robbed by the rich..."
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Is it fair for productive capital such regulation? You have to ask this QT to many Americans  that went to China & never came back.
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“I’m confident that I’ll be able to exit just before the market slump,” he said. “You can do that as long as you’re not too greedy...”
SEE CHART:
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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THE REST FOR TOMORROW

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