martes, 7 de julio de 2020

JUL 7 20 ND SIT EC y POL



JUL 7 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Lost in the headlines about Amazon or Tesla or Nasdaq or whatever the latest Robinhood-er is chasing higher today, is the fact that gold prices continue to rise, with futures topping $1800 once again... (some chaotic swings recently)
See Chart:

And spot gold prices back to their highest since Sept 2011...
See Chart:

And at the same time, so-called 'Safe Haven' from the virus have screamed higher at or near record bubble valuations...
See Chart:

As Bloomberg's Michael Regan notes, the trailing price-to earnings ratio of the S&P 500 Information Technology Index is about one decent rally away from cracking the 30 level, while the same ratio for consumer-discretionary stocks is fast approaching 40, in large part thanks to a record rally in Amazon.com Inc. With rising virus cases threatening to stymie the reopenings of various state economies and uncertainty over future stimulus packages, July is setting up to be a month of serious headline risk that could put to the test the Federal Reserve’s magic spell on the market, especially the most richly valued sectors.
Can the spell continue? Or will retail chasers get burned?
CHART BLOCKED

The longest win streak of the year appears to be over despite the best efforts of the pumpers to BTFD at the cash open in the Nasdaq...Today's selling started at the European close. There was also a notable puke in the last 10 minutes on a significant sell MoC imbalance...
See Chart:

Small Caps are down 1% from Thursday's close...
See Chart:

July's long momo, short value factor trade continues to gather pace...
See Chart:

Treasury yields were lower across the curve today with the long-end most notably (30Y -5bps)
See Chart:

Pushing 30Y Yields back below 1.40%...
See Chart:
UST 30Y Yield

The B-dollar Index was stronger today after some weakness overnight (thanks to yuan gains)...
See Chart:

Offshore Yuan held on to gains from Monday..
See Chart:

Finally, it's fun-durr-mentals, stupid!
See Chart:
Nasdaq vs Nasdaq Consensus 12m Fwd EPS

And the good news is that COVID deaths continue to trend notably lower (which may explain why today's vaccine investment headlines didn't juice the market 1000s of points higher)...
See Chart:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

"How history will judge the lockdown response to Covid-19, given its much more limited impact on workers in the economy"
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As Larsen further predicted, "if fatalities don’t spike early in July, then people will conclude that it’s probably spreading amongst a part of the population that is not as sensitive, or that it is a resulted of increased testing or that the virus has become less deadly as we move into the summer months. Governors in Texas, California and Florida seem to have concluded that the below correlation holds, but the jury is still out."
His conclusion was that "the next 6-10 days will be crucial."
Well, one week later, we decided to follow up on the current status and... there is still no spike in fatalities at either the federal level...
See Chart:
CV confirmed positive cases vs CV confirmed Deaths

... or even state level as can be seen in the Florida cases vs deaths chart below:
See Chart:
Florida Confirmed cases  vs. Confirmed Deaths

As in several states, not only are deaths not inflecting higher but are at the lowest level since March.
So were most experts wrong that the surge in cases would also lead to a spike in deaths?
While we are debating that question, here's another one: back in late March and early April, consensus emerged that unless the first coronavirus wave is contained, it would result in an even more acute and deadly second wave. Why? Because both professional and armchair epidemiologists were using the Spanish flu as a case study as shown in the following chart from JPMorgan.
See Chart:
N. of deaths during 1918  Spanish Flu Pandemic

Now, according to Deutsche Bank, it appears that this comparison to the 1918 Spanish Flu may have also been terribly wrong.
However, a major difference between Spanish flu and Covid-19 is the age distribution of fatalities, as shown in the chart below.
See Chart:
United States Death rates (per 100,000)

For Covid-19, the elderly have been overwhelmingly the worst hit. For the Spanish flu of 1918, the young working-age population were severely affected too. In fact, the death rate from pneumonia and influenza that year among 25-34 year olds in the United States was more than 50% higher than that for 65-74 year olds, "a remarkable difference to Covid-19."
This, as the strategist then notes, therefore begs the question of how history will judge the lockdown response to Covid-19, given its much more limited impact on workers in the economy. In short, we have an interesting situation at the moment, where rapidly rising cases in the US are slowing reopenings (negative) but the death rate is falling (positive).
ConclusionThe overall mortality rate as measured by weekly deaths/ weekly new cases (2 weeks lead) is about 1/3rd of the level observed in the second half of April
Results:
  • 1-The hospitalization rate has declined to ~20% by 10-15pp since the second half The hospitalization mortality rate halved to ~10% (last week's results scaled from daily to weekly deaths) since the second half of April.
  •  2- The hospitalization mortality rate halved to ~10% (last week's results scaled from daily to weekly deaths) since the second half of April.
  • 3- The overall mortality rate (deaths over lagged new cases) is the product of the previous two calculations. Since the second half of April, it has declined by about 2/3rd from 6.5% to 2%.
  • 4- For the three largest states with hospitalization data CA/NY/TX, the respective current levels are as follows. Hospitalization rate: 18.1%, 18.7%, 19.4%. Hospitalization mortality rate: 7.8%, 6.9%, 5.2%. Overall mortality rate: 1.7%, 1.5%, 1.0%.

Meanwhile daily tests in the US hit a new all time high every single day.
See Chart:
Increase in testing may be leading to milder cases being detected

CAN THE FAILED WW3 BE RE-STARTED?
Hugo Adan   7/7/20
This is my reaction to the article:
"How history will judge the lockdown response to Covid-19, given its much more limited impact on workers in the economy"
As DB concludes, "this may eventually give us more faith that we are now better at living with the virus."
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That is not good intention, that is dystopia
The key QT IS  why we lie to our Nation: why  we said that all deaths during pandemia-time are ‘officially’ pandemia-effects? . Why  to manipulate the Nation with false data on deaths?  Why to terrorize with fear?
Why to locked-down inside houses most of our NATION and destroy the business of middle entrepreneurs while the big corp were profiting from the privatization of the health system? .
Of course the FED has to compensate all those business now in bankruptcy.  BUT what was the intention of this terrorist manipulation of fear in AMERICA.
I guess there was a hidden intention that only the top level of the military in PENTA-NATO can confirm: the intention was to implement the failed pre-pandemia plan of re- initiating the WW3 (they  encircled RU & China with 48 Thousand soldiers ready to invade those countries after the rain OF MEGA NUKES launched on RU-Ch.)  
The pandemia stop them from WW3 and immediately  Trump  accused China of creating this pandemia.
Hypothesis 1: What soldiers ate? Does NATO soldiers ate the infested porks send by the US to soldiers & to China fisrt? The case is that CH lockdown the city infested  with the pandemia & in 3 months  their scientist solve the problem. The planned WW3 massacre on China-RU failed.  
Hypothesis 2: war drills (nuke radiation infestation)  expanded the pandemic in Europe. Italian soldiers infested with COVID-19  were sent back to their country and not to hospitals for recovery as happen with US soldiers, they were disseminated in  Italy & they disseminate the pandemia  in Europe. 
We didn’t have the WW3 before the pand as planed. BUT we still want to retake the planned WW3. That is why we lockdown our NATION & kill the middle classes business while big corp profit from the pri vatization of Health Sys in America.
So, there are still chances of going back to the planned WW3: The RU-phobia and Xenophobia is in full display nowadays. An ‘just in case’ we already bought 90%  of the best vaccine against CV & promise to buy same amount at the end of this Month. It is a very expensive vaccine but with the manipulation of fear they will sell it and the Pharma greed will be satisfied. ]
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"Look over your shoulder, Joe. Watch your back. Donald Trump is not your most threatening problem..."
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The Democratic Party is, to use a highly politically incorrect phrase, “on the war path” against the nation’s history if it is not interpreted pursuant to their dogma.
Biden  defeated their patron saints, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and E Warren, and thus they demand that he have as his cohort an acceptable socialist/ progressive who is fervent about the cause.
This is about power.
All major elections are.
The socialist/progressives understand this as well as any political movement does.
Since their goal is power and their purpose pure, why should they wait?
The path to total control is clearly there once they have the vice presidency.
It is the 25th Amendment
Thus the socialist/progressive wing of the Democratic Party is now center stage — and insisting one of their own be Biden’s vice presidential candidate.
Options:  could be Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) or Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) or any number of lesser-known advocates for the far left.
[ IF E-Warren get the VP many ABSTENTIONIST will vote Biden, that is for sure]
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"Thousands of employees" likely transmitted the disease, state claims
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Who received how much taxpayer money through the program? Now, you can find out yourself, zip code by zip code, with this interactive tool.
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... list of demands for California State University that it says will provide "redress for systemic anti-Black racism in the CSU.”
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

Puppet regime with xenophobic attitude :
Travel advisory update has outraged Beijing in wake of broad Hong Kong security law & new fears of "hostage diplomacy".
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Last week, at a meeting in Gilan province, former Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad alluded to some of the secret parts of this deal in public for the first time...
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After a short break, the military confrontation between the Libyan National Army mainly backed up by Egypt and the UAE and the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord has once again entered an open phase..
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While admitting that there are many pushing back against the idea, Bloomberg is reporting that the Trump administration is escalating its plans to hold China accountable for its recent global pandemic chaos and Hong Kong freedom oppression.
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Institutionalizing  xenophobia?:
"The stakes could not be higher..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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 NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

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 VOLTAIRE NET ORG   https://www.voltairenet.org/en

If Covid-19 is indeed a respiratory virus, then it should be deduced that it can only be transmitted by aerosol like all other viral respiratory diseases. In such a case, it is absurd to be cleaning door handles, absolutely useless to wear masks or to slip on a jumpsuit, and utterly ridiculous to keep social distancing. The only prevention is to ventilate as much as possible.
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Confirmed cases of Bubonic plague (or “Black Death”) have been detected in China and Mongolia. Seven cases of Bubonic plague are detected in the US every year. RT America’s Alex Mihailovich reports on the world’s continued struggle against COVID-19 and efforts to keep the new Bubonic plague outbreak under control. Then microbiology expert Dr. Dean Hart joins Rick Sanchez to discuss the latest findings about the novel coronavirus and how they’re likely to impact the global response to the pandemic.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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