JUL
27 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
B-Dollar Index: Things just "escalated quickly" in dollar-land as the
greenback was clubbed like a baby seal to its lowest level since Sept 2018
today...
See Chart:
Breaking a key up-trendline...
See Chart:
Creating the so-called "death
cross"...
See Chart:
And as the dollar collapsed, gold
soared...
See Chart:
Spot gold vs Bloomberg Dollar Index
And Silver soared-ever..
To its highest since August 2013...
See Chart:
Bitcoin was also bid back up near $11,000...
The highest level for this crypto
since Sept 2019...
See Chart:
Stocks were also higher on stimulus
hopes (but note the massive outperformance of big tech as The Dow lagged)...
Stocks were sinking into the European close then took off as soon as it closed...
See Chart:
Nasdaq surged back up to a somewhat
key level (right before its massive squeeze higher last week)...
See Chart:
As FANG Stocks continued their
rebound off Friday's opening gap down...
See Chart:
Banks were mostly dumped today )GS
outperformed)...
See Chart:
As the dollar was dumped today, so
were bonds...
See Chart:
With 10Y yield pushing back above
60bps (up only 2bps though)_...
See Chart:
UST 10 Y Yield
Big roundtrip in oil prices today as
stimulus bill hopes picked up, bouncing off $40..
See Chart:
Finally, is Trump's tumbling
approval rating signaling more pain for the dollar to come?
See Chart:
USD Index vs. Trump approval (3 mo
lead)
As the collapse of real yields lifts
precious metals...
Is the second wave over?
See Chart:
….
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Outlooks
remain cautious, but transcripts suggest lots of optimism. Div/buyback
cuts/suspensions likely largely behind us.
Heading into second quarter
earnings season, it wasn't a question of if it would be bad - we knew the
Y/Y earnings collapse of more than -40% would be the worst since the financial
crisis - but what hints management teams would
give on the outlook to at least give the impression that things are getting
better.
SEE CHARTS:
2Q
EXPECTATIONS BOTTOMING
And that's precisely what is taking
place: according to BofA, not only has there been a prevalence of top and
bottom-line beats, but when it comes to the future, management teams have never
been more optimistic... literally.
Here are the facts: Through this weekend, 127 S&P 500 companies (40% of EPS)
have reported, with another 37% set to report this week.
See Chart:
Results are
tracking 2% above analysts' expectations at the start of July, and 2Q EPS is now $23.71 (-43% y/y) after
bottoming at $23. More notably, 61% of companies have beaten on EPS and sales,
well above the 40% post-Week-2 average. Health Care and Tech lead in beats, but
Tech is lower since earnings season began.
Upward revisions last week were
driven by better-than expected results in Health Care and Tech. Overall, 77% of
companies have beaten on EPS, 73% have beaten on sales and 61% have beaten on
both - well above average, where typically 40% have positively
surprised on both metrics following Week 2.
See Charts:
With earnings generally better than
"macheted" expectations, sales are also beating by a
modest 1%.
According to BofA, bottom-up sales
expectations have risen across most sectors by more than 1% since the start of
July, with analysts expecting
sales -10% y/y (with
declines across all sectors except Health Care and Tech). Meanwhile,
FX was a ~1ppt headwind to YoY growth, similar to last quarter.
Excluding FX/oil impacts, constant-currency sales growth for the S&P 500 ex. Fins. & Energy
is expected to be -6% % YoY 5), vs. +3% YoY in 1Q.
See Charts:
That's the
good news. Now the not so good news:
So far, margins are coming in
slightly (~20-30bp) ahead of expectations earlier this month (true for the Tech
sector as well), but still slated
to decline substantially both sequentially and y/y.
While margins are slated to
collapse, the offset may be job cuts (not that that's a positive): profit
margins, one of the most important factors on watch this quarter, are tracking a
hair above expectations, but are still slated to collapse 350bp y/y, led by
Energy and Retail, with commentary around employment indicates
potential for more cuts: Paychex: ". "...if [a
client] had 20 or 30 employees, they might have 15 or 20 now";
others are, offering "voluntary separations"
etc.
OPTIMISM IS
SOARING. Indeed, as
the chart below shows, management has never been more optimistic about the
future, suggestive of a the expected improvement in profits in subsequent
quarters - mentions of
optimism on earnings calls are so far tracking at the highest levels in BofA
data history
See Charts:
Tied to this optimism - whether
justified or not - BofA concludes that the buyback and dividend suspensions and
cuts is likely largely behind us: "Announced
buyback programs have dropped off significantly within the S&P 500, with
aggregate announced buybacks in 2Q20 the lowest since 4Q17 (Chart 17) and
announcements in July so far nearly non-existent."
See Chart:
Big
drop-off in announced buyback programs
But buyback suspensions have also
slowed down significantly since last earnings season, with barely any
announcements in June/July Overall just under 100
S&P 500 companies suspended buybacks since the start of March, dominated by
Consumer Discretionary and Financials (Chart 16).
See Charts:
BofA also
thinks S&P 500 dividend cuts are largely behind us, where 64 companies in
the index have cut dividends since March, 40% of which are in Consumer
Discretionary, but only of those cuts occurred in June/July.
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"We
are on the precipice of several
cliffs."
====
“Debate” betw Reps
& Dems getting worse. When the rich shoot: Nation put d deaths
It’s a real-time exercise
in psy-ops. It’s gaslighting
writ large. But they believe you’re dumb enough to believe it...
….
Best title : 10 BIG REASONS FOR ABSTENTION and REV as
designed by PARETO
READ: OPEN
FASCISM IN US? HOW TO STOP THEM? and
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The problem is that the magic
money tree does not exist...
Authored
by Daniel Lacalle, MUST READ!
The dramatic economic decline due to the
Covid-19 crisis and the unprecedented recovery spending plans approved by
President Trump will drive the fiscal 2020 United States budget deficit to a
record $3.8 trillion, or 18.7% of U.S. gross domestic product, according to the Committee for a Responsible
Federal Budget (CRFB).
According to the same estimates, the fiscal 2021 deficit
would reach $2.1 trillion in 2021, and average $1.3 trillion through 2025 as
the economy recovers from the impact of the forced shutdowns.
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/united-states-will-not-recover-raising-taxes-or-printing-money
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NO ONE
WANTS THE PEST DEMS-REPS. They auto-sabotage the fake-democracy
"It is no one's preference, of course,
but as we have seen firsthand, much can change in nine weeks."
====
This is "life in wartime," where the battles are waged in narratives, confidence and magical thinking...
The foundations are collapsing, but by all
means, please keep your eye on the decaying corpses: didn't an eyelid flicker in
that one? I could swear that one moved its foot...
SEE CHART:
The rising wedge model of BREAK DOWN
This is "life in wartime," where the
battles are waged in narratives, confidence and magical thinking.
….
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
If some Congress members get their way, the Federal Reserve may soon be
able totrack many of your purchases in
real time and share that information with government agencies...
====
MORE XENOPHOBIA:
"Its
zealous data collection, use of Chinese infrastructure, and its parent
company’s close ties to the Chinese
Communist Party make it a perfect tool for massive surveillance and
data collection by the Chinese government."
====
The Fed may
need to add up to $12 trillion to its balance sheet over the next few years to
reach the equivalent to a shadow Fed Funds rate of -5% to fill the policy gap.
====
Where Germs are going get the oil
with 20% discount as offered by RU?
Trump
previously blasted the “very
outdated group of countries”
related to
the issue...
….
Nuevas migas con viejos aliados que nunca funcionaron bien. RU los
aplastó.
====
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
SINCE DATED 27/7 TO OLD SENDINGS I CUT THIS INFO
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ALAI NET ORG
SAME PROBLEM.. ABOVE
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
Trump’s America became unstoppable,
out-of-control bully By
Yonden Lhatoo
Brazil’s money laundering scandal from hell By Pepe Escobar
Biden’s vision for Venezuela is similar to Trump’s By Leonardo Flores
More willful blindness by the media with Obama
administration By Jonathan
Turley
"Most People Don't Realize What's
Coming!" By Peter Schiff
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VOLTAIRE NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
News in Brief:
On 24 July
2020, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reconverted the former cathedral of the
Eastern Roman Empire into a mosque.
While the
purpose assigned to the building is exclusively a Turkish matter, the mosque
inauguration ceremony constituted a belligerent message to the world, thus
bringing to an end the “United Nations Alliance of Civilizations” project
launched in 2006 by Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan himself.
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
A Twitter
fight erupted between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and ousted Bolivian President Evo
Morales when the latter linked the coup to Musk’s access to the country’s
lithium rich mines. Author and Professor of International Human Rights Dan
Kovalik shares his expertise.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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