lunes, 27 de julio de 2020

JUL 27 20 ND SIT EC y POL



JUL 27  20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics



B-Dollar Index:  Things just "escalated quickly" in dollar-land as the greenback was clubbed like a baby seal to its lowest level since Sept 2018 today...
See Chart:

Breaking a key up-trendline...
See Chart:

Creating the so-called "death cross"...
See Chart:

And as the dollar collapsed, gold soared...
See Chart:
Spot gold  vs Bloomberg Dollar Index

And Silver soared-ever..
To its highest since August 2013...
See Chart:

Bitcoin was also bid back up near $11,000...
The highest level for this crypto since Sept 2019...
See Chart:

Stocks were also higher on stimulus hopes (but note the massive outperformance of big tech as The Dow lagged)... Stocks were sinking into the European close then took off as soon as it closed...
See Chart:

Nasdaq surged back up to a somewhat key level (right before its massive squeeze higher last week)...
See Chart:

As FANG Stocks continued their rebound off Friday's opening gap down...
See Chart:

Banks were mostly dumped today )GS outperformed)...
See Chart:

As the dollar was dumped today, so were bonds...
See Chart:

With 10Y yield pushing back above 60bps (up only 2bps though)_...
See Chart:
UST 10 Y Yield

Big roundtrip in oil prices today as stimulus bill hopes picked up, bouncing off $40..
See Chart:

Finally, is Trump's tumbling approval rating signaling more pain for the dollar to come?
See Chart:
USD Index vs. Trump approval (3 mo lead)

As the collapse of real yields lifts precious metals...
Is the second wave over?
See Chart:
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Outlooks remain cautious, but transcripts suggest lots of optimism. Div/buyback cuts/suspensions likely largely behind us.

Heading into second quarter earnings season, it wasn't a question of if it would be bad - we knew the Y/Y earnings collapse of more than -40% would be the worst since the financial crisis - but what hints management teams would give on the outlook to at least give the impression that things are getting better.
SEE CHARTS:
2Q EXPECTATIONS BOTTOMING


And that's precisely what is taking place: according to BofA, not only has there been a prevalence of top and bottom-line beats, but when it comes to the future, management teams have never been more optimistic... literally.

Here are the facts: Through this weekend, 127 S&P 500 companies (40% of EPS) have reported, with another 37% set to report this week.
See Chart:


Results are tracking 2% above analysts' expectations at the start of July, and 2Q EPS is now $23.71 (-43% y/y) after bottoming at $23. More notably, 61% of companies have beaten on EPS and sales, well above the 40% post-Week-2 average. Health Care and Tech lead in beats, but Tech is lower since earnings season began. 

Upward revisions last week were driven by better-than expected results in Health Care and Tech. Overall, 77% of companies have beaten on EPS, 73% have beaten on sales and 61% have beaten on both - well above average, where typically 40% have positively surprised on both metrics following Week 2.
See Charts:


With earnings generally better than "macheted" expectations, sales are also beating by a modest 1%. 

According to BofA, bottom-up sales expectations have risen across most sectors by more than 1% since the start of July, with analysts expecting sales -10% y/y (with declines across all sectors except Health Care and Tech). Meanwhile, FX was a ~1ppt headwind to YoY growth, similar to last quarter.  

Excluding FX/oil impacts, constant-currency sales growth for the S&P 500 ex. Fins. & Energy is expected to be -6% % YoY 5), vs. +3% YoY in 1Q.
See Charts:


That's the good news. Now the not so good news:

So far, margins are coming in slightly (~20-30bp) ahead of expectations earlier this month (true for the Tech sector as well), but still slated to decline substantially both sequentially and y/y.

While margins are slated to collapse, the offset may be job cuts (not that that's a positive): profit margins, one of the most important factors on watch this quarterare tracking a hair above expectations, but are still slated to collapse 350bp y/y, led by Energy and Retail, with commentary around employment indicates potential for more cuts: Paychex: ".   "...if [a client] had 20 or 30 employees, they might have 15 or 20 now"; others are, offering "voluntary separations" etc.

OPTIMISM IS SOARINGIndeed, as the chart below shows, management has never been more optimistic about the future, suggestive of a the expected improvement in profits in subsequent quarters - mentions of optimism on earnings calls are so far tracking at the highest levels in BofA data history
See Charts:


Tied to this optimism - whether justified or not - BofA concludes that the buyback and dividend suspensions and cuts is likely largely behind us: "Announced buyback programs have dropped off significantly within the S&P 500, with aggregate announced buybacks in 2Q20 the lowest since 4Q17 (Chart 17) and announcements in July so far nearly non-existent."
See Chart: 
Big drop-off in announced buyback programs


But buyback suspensions have also slowed down significantly since last earnings season, with barely any announcements in June/July Overall just under 100 S&P 500 companies suspended buybacks since the start of March, dominated by Consumer Discretionary and Financials (Chart 16).
See Charts:


BofA also thinks S&P 500 dividend cuts are largely behind us, where 64 companies in the index have cut dividends since March, 40% of which are in Consumer Discretionary, but only of those cuts occurred in June/July.
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


"We are on the precipice of several cliffs."
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“Debate”  betw Reps & Dems getting worse. When the rich shoot: Nation put d deaths
It’s a real-time exercise in psy-ops. It’s gaslighting writ large. But they believe you’re dumb enough to believe it...
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Best title : 10 BIG REASONS FOR ABSTENTION and  REV as designed by PARETO
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The problem is that the magic money tree does not exist...
Authored by Daniel Lacalle,        MUST READ!

The dramatic economic decline due to the Covid-19 crisis and the unprecedented recovery spending plans approved by President Trump will drive the fiscal 2020 United States budget deficit to a record $3.8 trillion, or 18.7% of U.S. gross domestic product, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB). 

According to the same estimates, the fiscal 2021 deficit would reach $2.1 trillion in 2021, and average $1.3 trillion through 2025 as the economy recovers from the impact of the forced shutdowns.
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NO ONE WANTS THE PEST  DEMS-REPS. They auto-sabotage the fake-democracy

"It is no one's preference, of course, but as we have seen firsthand, much can change in nine weeks."
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This is "life in wartime," where the battles are waged in narratives, confidence and magical thinking...

The foundations are collapsing, but by all means, please keep your eye on the decaying corpses: didn't an eyelid flicker in that one? I could swear that one moved its foot...
SEE CHART: 
The rising wedge model of BREAK DOWN

This is "life in wartime," where the battles are waged in narratives, confidence and magical thinking.
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

If some Congress members get their way, the Federal Reserve may soon be able totrack many of your purchases in real time and share that information with government agencies...
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MORE XENOPHOBIA:
"Its zealous data collection, use of Chinese infrastructure, and its parent company’s close ties to the Chinese Communist Party make it a perfect tool for massive surveillance and data collection by the Chinese government."
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The Fed may need to add up to $12 trillion to its balance sheet over the next few years to reach the equivalent to a shadow Fed Funds rate of -5% to fill the policy gap.
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Where Germs are going get the oil with 20% discount as offered by RU?
Trump previously blasted the “very outdated group of countries” 
related to the issue...
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Nuevas migas con viejos aliados que nunca funcionaron bien. RU los aplastó.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

 
SINCE DATED  27/7 TO OLD SENDINGS  I CUT THIS INFO
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ALAI NET ORG

SAME PROBLEM.. ABOVE
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

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VOLTAIRE NET ORG   https://www.voltairenet.org/en

News in Brief:
On 24 July 2020, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reconverted the former cathedral of the Eastern Roman Empire into a mosque.
While the purpose assigned to the building is exclusively a Turkish matter, the mosque inauguration ceremony constituted a belligerent message to the world, thus bringing to an end the “United Nations Alliance of Civilizations” project launched in 2006 by Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan himself.
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A Twitter fight erupted between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and ousted Bolivian President Evo Morales when the latter linked the coup to Musk’s access to the country’s lithium rich mines. Author and Professor of International Human Rights Dan Kovalik shares his expertise.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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