sábado, 25 de julio de 2020

JUL 25 20 ND SIT EC y POL



JUL 25  20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Instead of 'managing' the cycle of bank credit, more recently central banks have now resorted to outright monetary inflation, as nations attempt to defray the economic consequences of the COVID-19 panic...

Explaining The Credit Cycle
This article summarises why the credit cycle leads to alternate booms and slumps. It is only with this in mind that they can be properly understood as current economic conditions evolve.

The reader is taken through three monetary models: a fixed money economy, one governed by changes in bank credit, and finally the consequences of central bank intervention.

The theory, embodied in the division of labour, eludedKeynes, who was determined to justify an interventionist role in the economy for the state.

This is the Holy Grail for interest rate policy. Assuming interest is the price of money, there should therefore be a correlation between changes in interest rates and changes in the general price level. In other words, managing interest rates should allow a central bank to manage the general level of prices, and therefore, so it is said, influence the level of consumer demand. 

But empirical evidence denies this. The little-known Gibson’s paradox proves that there has been no such correlation, and instead, it is the price level and nominal interest rates that correlate, as shown in Figure 1 below, which is of Britain’s experience, covering a period of 225 years of relatively free markets.

SEE CHART: 
Gibson ‘ Paradox

The bond yield is of Consols undated stock, which with little variation acts as an effective proxy for wholesale borrowing costs, since it lacks the pull of a gross redemption yield.

Contrast the correlation in Figure 1 with the lack of correlation in Figure 2, which shows no correlation between wholesale borrowing costs and the rate of price inflation.
SEE Chart:

Keynes, no less, named the phenomenon as a paradox in 1930, confirming the observations of Thomas Tooke in 1844 and then the eponymous Alfred Gibson, who wrote about it in an article for Banker’s Magazine in 1923. But because no one, including luminaries such as Keynes himself, Irving Fisher, Milton Friedman, and even Knut Wicksell, the Swedish economist who is remembered for his pioneering work on interest rates, managed to crack the paradox.

The solution of Gibson’s paradox turns out to be very simpleand I wrote a paper on it for Goldmoney in 2015. 

A businessman, allocating capital for the manufacture of a product, in his calculations had an important point of reference that could not be ignored: the price for which he might expect to sell his product. If the price was trending higher, he could afford to pay a higher rate of interest, the converse also being true.
CONTINUE READING AT:
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Increasingly reality is challenging the narratives of hope, optimism and even momentum...

This as earnings reports of big tech heavy weights such as $MSFT and $TSLA failed to inspire new buying but rather saw selling which spilled into the entire tech sector culminating in its breaking the up trend off of the March lows:
SEE CHART:

A rally driven by optimism, hope and liquidity suddenly finds itself reversing even with more hope, optimism and liquidity right at the point of another foray toward record valuations inside a recession:
Yesterday markets closed at 155.3% market cap vs GDP with negative earnings growth no less
The largest financial bubble ever.pic.twitter.com/6ETTPMzVAk
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) July 23, 2020
Perhaps valuations mean something after all.
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COMEX  de NY is now the largest Future contract for metals (gold ++) bye bye UK banks
Three elements cause physical delivery on the COMEX to have reached record highs this year: strong demand for futures in New York, a persisting spread between the price of futures in New York versus spot gold in London.

Submitted by Jan Nieuwenhuijs of Voima Gold

An important change in the global gold market occurred on March 23, 2020. On that day the price of gold futures in New York started drifting higher than the price for spot gold in London. Ever since, the spread has persisted, though it continuously widens and narrows. The reason for this disturbance in the market can be read in my previous article “What Caused the New York vs. London Gold Price Spread and Why it Persists.”

Physical delivery on the largest gold futures exchange in the world, the COMEX in New York, has reached all time highs this year. 

In June more than 170 tonnes were physically delivered (5.5 million ounces). Usually, delivery is “neglectable.” What has changed?

SEE CHART:
COMEX GOLD:  DELIEVERIES

What arbitragers currently do to profit from the spread is buy spot, sell futures, fly the metal to New York, and physically deliver the gold

This is how the profit is locked in. If the spread between spot and futures is $40 per ounce, the arbitrager’s profit is $40 minus costs for transport, insurance, storage, etc.

Now you can see why the persistent spread between New York and London has increased physical delivery on the COMEX through arbitrage.

CONCLUSION

Physical delivery on the COMEX is elevated because of the current unusual situation in the global gold market. The gold delivered in New York has been imported from spot markets such as SingaporeSwitzerland and Australia. U.S. imports directly from the U.K. are rare, because in London 400-ounce bars are traded and the main futures contract in New York requires smaller bars for delivery

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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

Seattle nor the Nation  need  police with  impunity  to kill  disarmed  people in streets.
"We cannot enforce the law. You are on your own."
               
Killing disarmed people protesting in streets  has nothing to do with  ‘enforcing law’, that  is  murder  and all murders has to be punished by real LAW.  All  democratic nation has the right to protest against their Govt.  Defending the Law has nothing to do with defending tirany or dictatorship.  Trump has the right  to create his own private team to protect  his security, but he has not right to use the public police. IF HE USED, IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MURDER.
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PRIVATIZING  the School system:  other EFFECT of the stupid lockdown
Millions of parents, after homeschooling their children for months are seriously considering homeschooling because of the dystopian guidelines issued by The CDC and being followed by most school districts...
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It's time to be our own heroes, because those in charge sure won't be
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

Indians’ ignorance about the geography of their own country, their irrationality, superstitions and bigotry have been fertile ground in these days of COVID-19...
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Fighter aircraft, armored vehicles, air defense systems & supplies...
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Massive security presence in Chengdu, China as a US consulate emblem taken down and staff seen moving out Saturday...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

RT EN ESPAÑOL

Policía de Seattle declara una revuelta contra  manifestantes https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361134-eeuu-seattle-revuelta-disturbios
"Urgencia máxima" en Corea del Norte tras primer caso sospechoso de covid-19 https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361124-corea-norte-primer-caso-sospechoso-coronavirus
BOL. "¡Daremos un golpe a quien nos dé la gana!": Musk . Y Morales le responde .   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361112-musk-golpe-bolivia-litio-morales
FMI: un "evento explosivo" podría hacer colapsar el mercado del dólar    https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361095-evento-explosivo-colapsar-dolar-fmi 
Alto funcionario alemán: "La segunda ola de coronavirus ya está aquí"   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361120-oficial-aleman-segunda-ola-coronavirus
VEN apela fallo británico  que le denegó acceso a su oro depositado en Londres  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361103-caracas-obtiene-derecho-apelar-acceso-oro
ONU: arrestos arbitrarios y uso "discriminatorio" de fuerza contra manif y periodistas en US.  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361077-onu-denuncia-uso-fuerza-protestas-eeuu
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Max and Stacy discuss the ongoing stampede into bankrupt or near-bankrupt companies, as retail investors believe a 90% fall in the stock price represents some sort of discount. In the meantime, a similar stampede into negative interest rate bearing bonds has been happening amongst sophisticated investors for even longer.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


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