JUL
14 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
"This
is not a normal recession. The recessionary part of this you’re going to see
down the road. You will see the effect of this recession. You’re just not going
to see it right away because of all the stimulus."
Once again we were right, because
as the first three reporting banks revealed today, the economic situation - as
observed by the same banks that have the bird's eye view over the economy and
what is coming, in the form of non-payment on their existing loans - is about to get far worse, and as shown in the chart below,
Q2 loss provisions surged from Q1 - just as we said they wold.
SEE CHART:
Just as unfortunately, as we
discussed earlier, Wells is about to suffer much
more pain, as the bank has taken just 2.2% allowance for credit losses on its
$935BN in loans outstanding as of June 30.
See Chart:
The above is also why we are 100%
certain that we will again be right in predicting that we
have not yet seen the peak of loss
reserves by the big banks.
Wells
Fargo’s nonperforming assets jumped 22% from the first quarter, largely driven
by loans to the oil and gas and commercial real estate industries.
SEE CHART
And it
would have been far, far worse had the Fed not nationalized the bond market,
allowing banks such as JPM to literally print money by issuing hundreds of
billions in risk-free bonds and stocks.
SEE Chart:
But the biggest reason why credit
losses are about to soar is that paradoxically, US consumers have actually been
quite well off, and have so far avoided massive personal losses for one simple
reason: personal income at the individual and household
level has soared thanks to massive government handouts, making this the "strangest
recession in history."
SEE CHART:
Personal
Income have surge since the start of the recession
All of this is about to reverse in
August once most of the government stimulus programs end. Until then, however,
things are better than expected: Citigroup’s
non-accrual consumer loans fell 7% from a year earlier. JPMorgan’s total net
charge-offs were almost half what was expected.
“It’s fair to say right now, given
where we are in the crisis, that the relationship
between the business cycle and the health of the business sector and the health
of the household sector IS BROKEN,” JPMorgan CFO Jennifer Piepszak said.
She is right, but that linkage is about to reinstitute itself with a bang in August and
September, when a new wave of covid will lead to millions more in unemployed,
coupled with a sharp collapse in government stimulus payments and
benefits. THAT'S WHEN
THE REAL CRISIS WILL HIT.
"We’re
just guessing,” Dimon concluded in today's earnings call. “We are prepared for the worst case.”
NO JAMIE, YOU'RE NOT.
….
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"74% say long US tech
stocks most 'crowded trade',
highest reading in FMS history."
SEE CHART:
Of course, having learned from our
previous observations that there is a flawed reflexivity in the BofA Fund
Manager Survey, some - such as Bloomberg's Ye Xie - were skeptical that there
is a convergence between perception and reality, and that it wasn't actually
the case that everyone is "all in" tech stocks; to justify their skepticism, they pointed out another chart
from the same BofA poll which showed that tech stocks were only modestly above
historical average z-scores in terms of positioning.
SEE CHART:
Of course, BofA
observing that everyone is long tech is hardly a shock. After all, as BofA points
out in another research report published today, without tech, S&P gains
over the past five years would be 50% lower.
SEE CHART:
Tech &
e-commerce= 78% of gains
So yes, whatever works will
continue to work, until there is a reason for it not to work. And since the Fed is now effectively punishing growth stocks (which
is just another name for bank and energy stocks, by keeping rates at record
lows), the growth to value outperformance will continue
until there are no more value investors left.
SEE CHART:
Growth up
vs Value down
Which is not to say that since it
has worked so far, it will always work. Indeed, as BofA CIO Michael Hartnett
notes, if one wants to be a true contrarian, "the
best short is tech stocks given positioning and stretched performance."
Just make sure to have a massive
balance sheet if putting this short on as the likelihood of repeat margin calls
before it finally does work is directly proportional to
the likelihood that the Fed's balance sheet will continue to grow by about one
trillion dollars every month or so, JUST TO AVOID A COMPLETE COLLAPSE OF THE
ENTIRE FINANCIAL SYSTEM.
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Membership
in the U.S. Congress is an exclusive club that comes with lucrative,
taxpayer-funded privileges. Retirement perks include a lifetime pension and a taxpayer-matched savings plan with
taxpayer-paid contributions of up to five percent of salary.
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
A powerful
former diplomat and party insider earlier this month shocked other officials
by laying out a grim & extreme 'walling off' scenario...
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USD & EXPLOSIVE INEQUALITY
Hugo Adan
7/14/20
Trump’ China policy made me thinks
on the fate of USD
Waste of time.. and If affect China Economy .. they will be
severe on tit for tat.
We expect
most of the questions will focus on
the
administration's domestic issues...
….
This won’t
stop China decoupling from USD in all financial transaction at regional and
global level. Yuan will be easily converted into the 1st or 2nd
mayor currency for international banking and world trade.
This plus
de ZERO SOVEREINGN DEBT from Latin
American & other regions ..
will force the USD conversion to GOLD –base, as it was before 1971. Then the US
Economy will survive, otherwise the currents USD will be trashed.
We have to
create a new USD-G (G for based on Gold). The aims are: 1- to respect
differences among americans, and 2-to eradicate
the explosive inequality we have now. The only way to achieve both aims is to immediately favor industrial production & dismantle the sources of
nasty speculation we have today.
Wall Street
has to be dissolved or used by investors in real industrial production competition
(not speculations but honest competition among investors.).
The NEW DEALS or Econ project will make
obsolete the QEs and Bailouts. Some billionaires will be forced to return the money that they misused against the public need
(specially health & Education) or in favor of wars and genocide abroad.
The
confiscation of billionaires money by FDR did it may apply this time too.
The USD-G will compete with other currencies based on gold at international
level for banking & trade.
Most of the
USD now is in the hands of billionaires
running Banks & huge Corp and they may want to convert all their USD
into new USD-G. It won’t
happen since the aim of new USD-G is to eliminate explosive inequality.
How to? By limiting
class difference in terms of money to a rate from 10 to 100 of minimum salaries.
More than 100 minimum
salary will not be tolerated.
A
billionaire may want to convert all his money into new USD-G, but it will be prohibited. Most of their
money has to be transfer to FED for best State- health and Education system for all.
IF not
minimum salaries, we can use PARETO
optimum point: It means that the current supply-demand for basic basket of items need for Americans to survive monthly with
a family of 5 in the new system.
The optimum
point is a quasi middle point between supply-demand prices for the set
of commodities need for a family to survive a month. The middle point doesn’t depend on 2
variables (X & Y) there are other
variables intervening, so we can’t
exactly define the middle point but an OPTIMUM.
All Americans will have the right to have new USD-G , either
based on minimum salaries , or based on price for a basket of minimum items to survive a
month with 5 members of a family.
The new USD-G is a subject to be
discussed by econ & sociologists ++. The important
thing is to respect differences and eliminating the explosive inequality.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
- Tommy
Tuberville Wins Alabama GOP Senate Primary Runoff Against Ex-US Attorney
General Jeff Sessions
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist
imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI NET ORG
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
-Would-be führer: Trump steps up coup plotting By Patrick Martin
How to spot a fuuhrer dictator? See Graph: http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/trump-dictator-3.JPG
- Grown-Ups Like Us By Caitlin Johnstone Children don’t even know how to hate
until we teach them, that’s how stupid they are.
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VOLTAIRE NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
by Thierry Meyssan
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por Thierry
Meyssan
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par Thierry
Meyssan
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
Max and
Stacy discuss the TikTok generation targeting Trump with coordinated trolling
campaigns as teens rebel against his politics and his plans to ban their
favorite platform. They also discuss the exorbitant privilege of the US dollar
driving migration, as well as the ‘chart of truth’ suggesting this privilege
will soon end. Max interviews entrepreneur Sunny Ray, co-founder
of UnoCoin.com.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
- Syria: Hope Is Gone, Evil Has Taken Over, We Are at War with
the Western Leaders By
Father Daniel,
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
- We
Are Not Your Mascots: Washington NFL Team Removes Racist Name After Years of
Indigenous Protests
- Trump’s
Fox Fave Tucker Carlson Goes Fishing After Lead Writer Resigns over Racist
Online Comments
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