JUL 11 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
"The
economy is grinding, slowing down, we’re lurching in and out of Covid, yet the
tech market makes new highs every day. That’s a classic speculative
bubble."
Echoing what BofA CIO Michael
Hartnett said on Friday, when he cautioned that the disconnect
between macro and markets has never been greater, which however is to be
expected now that "government and corporate bonds
have been fixed ("nationalized") by central banks, so why would anyone expect markets to connect
with macro, why should credit & stocks price rationally",
Novogratz - like Stan Druckenmiller and David Tepper - has been sounding alarms
about the stock market for months, yet the S&P 500 index has inched higher,
erasing losses spurred by the coronavirus pandemic and notching its best
quarter since 1998.
While so
far Novogratz' warnings have fallen on deaf ears, with Robinhooders clearly
chasing momentum in such mega-bubble stocks as Tesla...
SEE CHART
Robin Hood
TSLA holders
... whose
market cap is now greater than that of Ford + GM + BMW + Daimler + Volkswagen combined...
See Chart:
TSLA vs.
All other automakers
Of course,
there is the possibility that Novogratz is merely talking his book, admitting
to Bloomberg that he largely missed out on the tech-stock rally, and has been
investing instead in gold and Bitcoin, which are also benefiting from the
liquidity propping up the stock market.
Then again, with gold the best
performing asset of 2020 we won't begrudge him for being right.
"We’re
at really dangerous valuations on the growth side, on the tech side,” he said.
“If it’s Zoom or Tesla or Beyond Meat, whatever stock has a story, everyone’s
rushing in. That gets me worried."
Watch the full interview below:
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/FfjB_9UvIDE
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"...to seek out more information, to question conventional thinking and
to continually refine your judgments and understanding that difference between certainty and likelihood can make
all the difference..."
Twice In One Year
At that time, I tweeted the following
chart, which compared the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 index.
The bands on both charts are 2-standard deviations of the
200-WEEK moving average. there are a couple of things which should jump out
immediately:
1. The near-vertical price acceleration in the
markets has been a historical hallmark of late-stage cycle advances, also known
as a “melt-up” phase.
2. When
markets get more than 2-standard deviations above their long-term moving
average, reversions to the mean have tended to follow shortly after that.
SEE CHART:
’$SPX S&P500. Large cap index
As I warned then, not only has the
price of the Nasdaq gone
parabolic, this time it is pushing 3-standard
deviations of the 200-dma.
Fundamentally Detached
The divergence is particularly
notable when you consider the economic and fundamental differences between now
and then. (While we are
discussing the Nasdaq, to maintain consistency with previous reports, I am
using earnings estimates for the S&P 500 to show the relative change.)
SEE TABLE:
When looking at the acceleration in
the price of the Nasdaq, and particularly within the small group of stocks
driving that advance, you can begin to fathom our concerns.
Furthermore, the divergence between the Nasdaq and the
S&P 500 index is emulating the late 90’s. (The horizontal red line is where the ratio was last Friday just for
perspective.)
See Chart:
Optimism in
the Nasdaq 100 has also reached levels of exuberance seen only once previously
in the last 25 years. Yep…the late 90’s.
See Chart:
NASDAQ 100 Index
vs Optimism Index 3 months average
Yes, “THIS
IS NUTS.”
For the second time in a single
year, we have begun the profit-taking process within our most profitable
names. Apple, Microsoft, Netflix,
Amazon, Costco, PG, and in Communications and Technology ETF’s.
As
discussed in this week’s #MacroView
(below), the “bearish case” does
have “teeth” and should not be summarily dismissed. As Doug
Kass noted this past Monday:
“Several key labor-intensive
industries – education, lodging, entertainment (Broadway events, concerts,
movie theaters, sporting events), restaurant, travel, retail, non-residential
real estate, etc. – face an existential threat to their core. For these
industries, they simply cannot survive the conditions they face. For these gutted industries, we face, at best, an 80% to 85% recovery in the years to come.
It should be emphasized that Covid-19 just sped up what was already a secular
decline.”
See Chart:
The V
start to roll over
Morning consult Index of Consumer
Sentiment
See Chart:
When the market historically becomes this detached from the underlying
fundamentals, reversions tend to happen fairly quickly.
A Very Narrow Market
In our subscriber service (RIAPro – 30-Day Free Trial) we
recently added a new service with institutional money manager Jeffrey Marcus of Turning Point Analytics
(TPA). One of his latest notes to subscribers drove home the point
we are discussing now. To wit:
“It seems like we have dodged a
bullet, yet a look under the surface reveals a much sicker market. The
relative performance chart below shows that while the S&P 500 is still down
1.88%, but TPA’s BIGTECH Index (the
top 8 stock in the NASDAQ 100 by market cap)is up an astonishing 48.99% year to
date (YTD).
See Chart:
The table below shows that these 8-stocks
represent $8 trillion in market cap, which is 29% of the market cap of the
S&P 500 ($27.3 trillion). TPA ran the numbers to see just what effect these 8 stocks have had on
an index of 500 stocks. The
BIGTECH effect has been to add 8.71% of performance to the S&P 500 YTD.
See Table:
Just A Handful Of Stocks
Here is a visual of what Jeff is talking about.
See Chart:
S&P 500 more concentrated in the 5 largest stocks than ever
Throughout history, whenever there seems to be a “Can’t Lose
Bet” in the financial markets, you are essentially guaranteed
to “Lose Money.”
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"We seek a free flow of information... we are not afraid to entrust the American people with unpleasant facts,
foreign ideas, alien philosophies, and competitive values." – John F. Kennedy, February 1962
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Even though Islamabad houses one of the largest DEA offices in Asia, no action was ever taken by the DEAagents
against any of these operations...
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There's
even a pool and shooting range.
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...even though you didn’t create the fraud in the financial system, and
were forced to close down your business, you will now be used as tax cattle to pay for this giant fustercluck.
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The last
time this happened it was the Great Depression.
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Exhibit A in the corruption
of science...
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Over 1,500
buildings were damaged by fires,
looting and vandalism...
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"The U.S. is getting a
dose of the scarcity economy, and we don’t like it."
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
US looks for VEN OIL and UK for VEN GOLD both super-power
must be resp by RU-Ch
Kim Yo Jong also strangely expressed curiosity for “obtaining DVDs of U.S. Independence Day
events... I’ve gotten approval from the chairman for that.”
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TRUMP IS STARTING WW3 IN VEN: WHY?
Hugo Adan
7/11/20
LET’S start by answering the WHY
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Russian church leader decries: “A threat to
Hagia Sophia is a threat to the entire
Christian civilization.”
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
- Robert
Mueller Supports Stone's Conviction, Says Russia Investigation Was 'of
Paramount Importance' For Trump the Dems
type of Rusofobia RU-GATE Is a felony. Both (dems & Reps) want to attack
RU-CH but is T who decided. Perhaps China 1st.
- Howie
Hawkins Becomes Green Party’s Presidential Candidate. Adorning Dem? What we need is a PEOPLE FRONT, NO
adornments to fake democracy. ABSTENTION
is better
- Erdogan
Says Conversion of Hagia Sophia Into Mosque Step To Make Turkey Great. La mosqueta to CERDOGUN: He also suffer schizophrenia & delusional disorder &
is armed, so dangeroux
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
RT EN ESPAÑOL
Trump: "algo va a pasar con VEN" y asegura
que US estará "muy involucrado" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/359601-trump-pasar-algo-venezuela-eeuu-involucrado Hoy supimos que VEN está bien armado.
Trump se llevara la sorpresa
Países Latinos
serán los primeros en recibir el medicamento ruso contra el covid-19 https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/359597-paises-latinoamerica-primeros-medicamento-ruso-covid
U. registra por primera vez más de 71.000 nuevos
casos de covid-19 en un día https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/359618-eeuu-registra-primera-vez-mas-71000-coronavirus Esta
noticia de Bloomberg no ha sido confirmada en fuentes oficiales.
Trump por 1ra vez usa en público mascarilla mientras
el US bate récord de contagios https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/359621-trump-muestra-mascarilla-primera-vez-publico AL no usarla desdijo la validez de su propio
Gob sobre la pandemia.
Científicos registran aumento del 'síndrome corazón
roto' durante el CV-19 https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/359573-cientificos-aumento-sindrome-corazon-roto-pandemia
Bosnia y Herzegovina recuerda a las víctimas de la
masacre de Srebrenica https://actualidad.rt.com/video/359612-bosnia-herzegovina-recuerda-victimas-masacre
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VOLTAIRE NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
The United
States Army addressed an email to all of its civilian and military staff
denouncing white supremacism.
The email was sent by the Army’s
Equity and Inclusion Agency as part of its Operation Inclusion, and was signed
by Casey Wardynski (photo), Assistant Secretary of the Army in charge of
Manpower and Reserve Affairs.
The email
contravenes the Hatch Act which bounds all federal employees to a
confidentiality obligation and prohibits any form of political engagement.
The Pentagon assured that the email
was sent by mistake and retracted it.
Representative
(Republican, Alabama) Mr Brooks referred the matter to Attoney-General William
Barr.
According to polling organizations,
in the 2016 presidential elections, US senior military staff officers voted
overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton, while rank-and-file soldiers voted just as
overwhelmingly for Donald Trump.
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
On this
episode of Going Underground, we firstly speak to Prof. Adrian Owen,
world-renowned neuroscientist and CEO of Cambridge Brain Sciences. He discusses
the findings of studies on recovered coronavirus patients which show the
development of neurological problems such as worsened concentration ability and
damage to senses such as smell.
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Max and
Stacy discuss post-1971 psychology in which laws of physics can, indeed, be
suspended – if even just momentarily. We are at another one of these moments as
stock markets defy all the data in the real economy in which unemployment
claims remain historically high. In the second half, Max Interviews bitcoin
developer, Jimmy Song, about ‘A Declaration of Monetary Independence.’
SOURCE: https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/494376-bitcoin-monetary-independence-declaration/
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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