JUL 12 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
Prediction
market probability that Dems will control following 2020 Election
See Chart:
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Bad news:
It was
only to be expected that in an
already brutal year, the summer of 2020 was going to be the absolute
worst.
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
"Consensus forecasts S&P 500
EPS will decline by 44% year/year in 2Q, but we believe earnings will fall by
60% in the quarter... Management commentary will prove more valuable than
backward-looking results."
While Morgan Stanley continues
to cheerlead some imaginary V-shaped recovery that is increasingly
just in the heads of its research analysts who are running out of time to
convince the bank's clients to buy everything the bank's prop desks have to
sell (while pointing to the market's surge as if
central bank manipulation in the form of trillions of money printed is somehow
equivalent todiscounting the future, something which the market
used to do before central banks took over "price
discovery")
Goldman has increasingly become the bearish foil to Stanley's
mind-numbing cheerleading, and in his latest note, Goldman's chief equity
strategist David Kostin looks at Q2 earnings, writing that "investors seek answers about the size of the downturn and the
scope for recovery", and warns that the
earnings reality about to be revealed will be far uglier than even the
pessimists expect.
Which is why, unlike consensus which expects an already
catastrophic 44% drop in Q2 EPS Y/Y, Goldman is even more downbeat with Kostin
predicting that "earnings
will fall by 60% in the quarter", the worst
print since the financial crisis
See Chart:
Consensus expects S&P 500 earnings will decline by 44% in
2Q, but aggregate results will mask wide dispersion by sector. Equity analysts
forecast S&P 500 sales will decline by 12% and net profit margins will
contract by 400 bp to 6.8%. If realized, 2Q 2020 EPS growth would be the weakest since 4Q 2009
(-65%).
See Chart:
Energy and Consumer Discretionary are expected to post
outright losses in the quarter due to the sharp decline in oil prices and
direct impact from coronavirus shutdowns. Financials results will also be weak as Banks build
additional reserves ahead of an expected surge in bankruptcies and
nonperforming loans. Goldman's Banks team
expects earnings to decline by
69%.
Goldman's 2021 EPS forecast is 4% above realized 2019 EPS,
while in 2020, Goldman assumes average annual US GDP growth of -4.6%, average
Brent crude oil price of $41/bbl (-35% year/year), and a 5% stronger
trade-weighted US dollar relative to 2019.
The bank's 2021 and 2022 forecasts incorporate expectations
of modestly higher oil prices, a weaker USD, and US real economic growth that
averages +5.8% in 2021 and +3.5% in 2022. The bank's
economists also expect slack to persist in the labor market through 2022,
providing additional flexibility for corporate profit margins.
See Chart:
According to Kostin, "more of the 2020 decline in earnings is driven by margin contraction than
by a drop in sales" as many companies have adjusted their revenue
models (e.g., online, curbside) but are experiencing increased costs to reopen
safely. Excluding Financials and Utilities, Goldman
forecasts S&P 500 sales growth
of -8% in 2020, +13% in 2021, and +7% in 2022, and net profit margins of 8.6%
(-205 bp) in 2020, 11.1% (+250 bp) in 2021, and 11.5% (+40 bp) in 2022.
What if Goldman is - as usual - wrong about everything? Well,
in a downside scenario,
Kostin expects that S&P 500 EPS would equal just $105 in 2020, $135 in
2021, and $160 in 2022, with the downside estimates implying EPS growth of -36% in 2020, +29% in
2021, and +19% in 2022, meaning 2022 EPS would remain 3% below 2019 levels.
See Chart:
The election wildcard:
The 2020 elections add to the earnings uncertainty created by the coronavirus. The odds of a Democratic sweep in November have increased substantially
since February and now stand above 50%.
See Chart:
Prediction market probability that Dems have control
following 2020 Elect
If enacted, the Biden tax plan would
reduce our S&P 500 earnings estimate for 2021 by $20 per share, from $170
to $150.
See Chart:
Tax reform can reduce S&P500 EPS
by 12%
This estimate includes raising the statutory federal tax rate
on domestic income from 21% to 28%, doubling the GILTI tax rate on
certain foreign income, imposing a minimum tax rate of 15%, adding an
additional payroll tax on high earners, and a drag on US GDP of a similar
magnitude to the boost the TCJA created in 2018.
Outside of tax reform, Goldman sees regulation,
infrastructure, and trade policy represent potential upside and downside risk
to S&P 500 EPS. It's not just bad news from a Biden beat: Kostin reminds us
that this week, Biden outlined a $700 bn economic plan focused on fiscal
stimulus. Large fiscal expansion would likely provide a
tailwind to economic growth and S&P 500 EPS. Meanwhile, JPMOrgan has
published a matrix showing that no matter if Trump or Biden wins, the outcome will
be bullish for stocks in either case.
See Chart:
….
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Short
news:
The next
two decades of U.S. growth would look
like the last two decades in Japan. Not a collapse, just a slow, prolonged stagnation. This is
the economic reality we are facing... And neither monetary policy nor fiscal policy will change that.
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So far,
the current economic situation, and the governmental response,compares with the run-in to the depression of
the 1930s. Yet to come in the repetitious credit cycle is the collapse in financial asset values
and a banking crisis.
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
IT IS UP to our NATION TO TAKE STREETS against
WW3 derived from ‘China Conflict’
The only thing uniting Americans is a
belief that China is an adversary. Now Bannon says we’re building a case that
Covid was caused by a lab leak. "Trump just chose to double down on a
culture war."
….
….
IT IS NOW up to the SUPREME COURT to demand TRUMP
RESIGNATION for creating both problems. That historical decision will be applaud by US forever
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The greater fools still partying in the
first-class lounge are in denial that even the greatest, most
technologically advanced ship can sink...
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But the
authors don’t want the study to be retracted because their findings were
wrong...
….
Rather, the authors of the
study now feel that it is being used improperly in the debate about police
killings. They don’t
like that people are using their study to discredit the Black Lives Matter
narrative.
What this means:
We are all for police reform.
We’ve discussed many of the needed reforms: ending
qualified immunity, reigning in police unions, ending civil asset
forfeiture, ending the drug war, and so on. But we’ve
always been skeptical of the argument that the way police behave is all about
race.
[ if NOT RACISM who to explain the white-police love to kill
blacks again & ..]
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DONDE
ESTAMOS y ADONDE VAMOS
Hugo Adan
This is my reaction to:
====
...what Pritzker didn’t tell Congress: Illinois
has suffered 42% more deaths per capita than America as a whole...
Given that record so far, nobody
should be telling Congress that Illinois provides the model for
others to follow.
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Trump teach a bad lesson to
them: he didn’t use mask & US-Reps people follow him
BASES
FOR LOCKED DOWN AS COVID-19 OUTBREAK
GROWS; FLORIDA SMASHES US SINGLE-DAY RECORD: LIVE UPDATES
The highlight from Sunday's session
was the record jump in new cases out
of Florida
The authors of a study which found no racial bias in police
shootings asked
for the study to be retracted. The main findings were:
“1) As the
proportion of Black or Hispanic officers in a [fatal officer-involved
shootings] increases, a person shot is more likely to be Black or Hispanic than
White, a disparity explained by county demographics;
2)
race-specific county-level violent crime strongly predicts the race of the
civilian shot…”
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"The
free exchange of information and ideas,
the lifeblood of a liberal
society, is daily becoming more constricted..."
150 prominent intellectuals and Ivy League academics of leftish
persuasion have signed a letter
in Harper’s protesting the breakdown in civilized debate and
imposition of ideological conformity.
The signatories to the letter do not understand that time has passed
them by. Free speech is no longer a value. Free
speach is an ally of oppression because it permits charges against Western civilization
and the white racist oppressors to be answered, and facts are not welcome.
The signatories do not understand that today there is only one side. In place of debate there is denunciation,
the purpose of which is to impose ideological conformity.
CONTINUE READING AT:
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US-WORLD
ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D
rest in limbo
FALSE EXCUSE FOR WW3 IS A SIGN OF STUPIDITY
The art of the deal...
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Political mercenaries abound,
like jijadist for war. Agst China they may wk free now
"The
thing was built with French help, so don’t think that there aren’t some
monitoring devices in there..."
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The fact is that
Chinese scientist solve the CV-19 in 3 months. And they continue working on new
pandemics . They are at the top of science on pandemics. It is good to have them in US, even those f
Wuhan Ctry ago. If FBI collect them.. they may have special love for Dinos,
perhaps new ‘Zoo type’. Welcome to
America .. the land for “free thinkers”
don’t matter nationality.
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"There’s
going to be a scramble for market share, and the trick is how the low cost
producers assert themselves without crashing the oil price."
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Turkey too much a player in the conflict, Russia argues in
key UN vote
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
RT IN ESPAÑOL
Ensayos
clínicos confirman la seguridad de una vacuna rusa contra el covid-19 https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/359642-rusia-completar-ensayos-clinicos-vacuna-coronavirus
Rusia: Infectólogo
"La segunda ola de covid-19 depende de tres factores" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/359662-infeccionista-jefe-rusia-segunda-ola-factores
Trump
propuso "vender" la isla de Puerto Rico tras ser azotada por el
huracán María https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/359625-trump-vender-puerto-rico-huracan-maria
OMS : récord
mundial de casos de CV tras registrarse
más de 230.000 contagios https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/359675-oms-aumento-diario-record-casos-coronavirus
Relación
entre Rusia y EE.UU. está "en el punto más bajo", según el Kremlin https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/359667-relaciones-rusia-eeuu-punto-bajo
Colombia,
el ariete de Donald Trump para derrocar a Nicolás Maduro https://actualidad.rt.com/opinion/luis-gonzalo-segura/359367-colombia-ariete-donald-trump-derrocar-maduro
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VOLTAIRE
NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
by Thierry Meyssan
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por Thierry Meyssan
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CROSS
TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
CrossTalk,:
NO TRUST
We live in an age of disbelief. The
people don’t trust governments and governments don’t trust the people. How did
it come to such a lack of mutual recognition? And, more importantly, is there a
way out? Is dialogue possible?
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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