jueves, 30 de julio de 2020

JUL 29 20 ND SIT EC y POL



JUL 29  20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


"We're partying too much, social gatherings are too large..."
====


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


And the real shocker: new taxpayer capital will come in junior to the existing insolvent debt. One really can't make this shit up anymore.

Well, with everyone and everything else getting a bailout, may as well go all the way.

Two months after we reported that the state of California is trying to turn centuries of finance on its head by allowing businesses to walk away from commercial leases - in other words to make commercial debt non-recourse - a move the California Business Properties Association said "could cause a financial collapse", attempts to bail out commercial lenders have reached the Federal level, with the WSJ reporting that lawmakers have introduced a bill to provide cash to struggling hotels and shopping centers that weren’t able to pause mortgage payments after the coronavirus shut down the U.S. economy.

To be sure, the commercial real estate market is implodingand as we reported at the start of the month, some 10% of loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities were 30 or more days delinquent at the end of June, including nearly a quarter of loans tied to the hard-hit hotel industry, according to Trepp LLC.
SEE Chart
Percentage of CMBS market as 30+ days delinquent


"The numbers are getting more dire and the projections are getting more stern," said Rep. Van Taylor (R., Texas), who is sponsoring the bill alongside Rep. Al Lawson (D., Fla.).
Under the proposal, banks would extend money to help these borrowers and the facility would provide a Treasury Department guarantee that banks are repaid. 

The funding would come from a $454 billion pot set aside for distressed businesses in the earlier stimulus bill.
The proposed facility would instead structure the cash infusions as preferred equity, which isn’t subject to the debt restrictions."

While it is unclear if this bill will pass - at this point there is literally money flying out of helicopters and the  

US deficit is exploding by hundreds of billions every month so who really gives a shit if a few more billionaires are bailed out by taxpayers - should this happen, well readers may want to close out the trade we called the "The Next Big Short", namely CMBX 9, whose outlier exposure to hotels which had emerged as the most impacted sector from the pandemic.
See Charts :


Alternatively, those who wish to piggyback on this latest egregious abuse of taxpayer funds, this crucifxion of capitalism and latest glorification of moral hazard, and make some cash in the process should do the opposite of the "Next Big Short" and buy up the BBB- (or any other deeply impaired) tranche of the CMBX Series 9, which will quickly soar to par if this bailout is ever voted through.
See Chart:
CMBX S9  BBB-
….
----
----


As one would expect, markets were dominated today by Powell's words with gold and stocks rising after the FOMC statement:
See Chart:


Powell initially promised The Fed will "do whatever it takes for as long as it takesand stocks and gold spiked.

Everything was fine until Powell reiterated a statement on the pace of recovery slowing and everything reversed.

But then Powell promised to "adjust forward guidance and asset-buying if neededand the market assumed that if the recovery is slowing that can only mean MOAR!!!!

And stocks rallied back to their highs with Small Caps dramatically outperforming (as The Dow lagged)...
See Chart:


Expectations were high.. and met for now... but watch the next few days...

“The market was operating under the assumption that the Fed will do whatever it has to do to support the market” and policy makers “didn’t disappoint on that front,” said Phil Toews, chief executive and lead portfolio manager of New York-based Toews Corp., which manages $1.9 billion.

“If markets falter over the coming months, the ability of the Fed to act as a put under the markets will be tested,” Toews said via email; "if markets begin to fall despite the Fed’s bond-buying power, it would be a tipping point that would be a huge sell indicator."

Despite the sudden spike on Powell's "slowing" comments, the Dollar ended lower on the day (the 8th down day of the last 9)...
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar Index


Spot Gold spiked back up to record highs (Dec Futs near $2000)...
See Chart:

Treasuries were bid and are now all lower on the week led by the belly of the curve...
See Chart

with UST 10Y Yield dropping back to its 2nd lowest yield close in history...
See Chart:

And UST 5Y yields tumbled to new record low...
See Chart:

And 10Y real rates plunged to record lows (-96bps)...
See Chart:

While stocks remain near record highs...
See Chart:
Nasdaq  vs  10Y Yield

Gold surged as real yields tumbled...
See Chart:

Finally, it's all about fun-durr-mentals, right?

Source: Bloomberg
Oh and there's this...
See Chart:

Pretty much sums it all up really.
….
----
----


With a debt burden of $192 billion US, Germany's auto giant Volkswagen Group is the most heavily indebted enterprise in the world.

Submitted by KryptoSzene

With a debt burden of $192 billion US, Germany's auto giant Volkswagen Group is the most heavily indebted enterprise in the world. This can be seen in a new infographic from Kryptoszene.de. 

As the "Corporate Debt Index" data show, two other German groups, in addition to Volkswagen, are among the ten companies with the highest debt burden: Daimler and BMW have debt of $151 and $114 billion US respectively

An analysis of financial data from the 900 largest companies by market capitalization reveals that US companies carry the largest debt burden overall, while Germany and companies based there rank second.
SEE CHARTS AT: 
----
----


Euro: 12 year old downtrend line narrowly broken
Ending the third week of July, euro closed at 1.1656 which is above its weekly closing resistance line at 1.1644 (a small bullish breakout). 
See Chart:


DXY: Getting close to a breakdown
See Chart:


BBDXY: Marginal bearish breakdown
Should this be true, the next medium term support is the Fibonacci retracement at 1144 and the 2018 lows at 1120.
See Chart:


Gold: Highest weekly close on record, now what?
At the risk of over simplifying, a chart that is smiling should be bought and held.  Our target range from over a year ago is $2114-2296 however using the below we can calculate a few more levels to be aware of including 2379 and possibly 2691.
See Chart:

$/JPY: 106 sort of mattered but not as much as this

This was the same weekly closing value in March 2020 and in August 2019. In March 2018 it closed at 104.74. So there is still some support nearby and is probably why $/JPY hasn't sold off more from a technical view on the break of 106.  

A descending triangle pattern (unconfirmed until a break happens) implies a break lower could follow with 100.72 and 94.85 possible.
See Chart:
….
----
----


US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


I WILL GET THIS plus a police uniform.. can Dr Fauci suggest me the best Bank to visit?
"If you have goggles or an eye shield, you should use it...but if you really want to be complete, you should probably use it if you can..."
….
Agree with the intention.. hay que impedir que a los bancos los asalte el CV-19
====

"...a devastating policy error..."
====

What? Florida infested by flatulent bombs from British Queen? Si apestan esos pedos
"...a significant leak."
….
De tanto oler las inmundicias de su reina los ingleses se volvieron dementes
====

I want a list of recipients of QEs & Bailouts, I want to stimulate them with my FAL-16
These benefits are not a "life preserver," but a job-killer...
…..
I want to stimulate them  and tax evaders too. Rich Putos don’t pay taxes. Hay que despacharlos al infierno cantándoles the melody  ‘GOD BLESS KKKA’
====

78,064 Public Employees With $100,000+ Paychecks
Cost Taxpayers $12 Billion.
====

Unfortunately, the truth is that all of the things that once made America so great are slipping away from us a little bit more with each passing day...
====


US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


“We are on alert, conducting surveillance, patrolling to avoid an incident...”
====

Global Times issues hugely provocative tweet & report: "Rumors say the US could launch attacks on Chinese islands and reefs in the South China Sea..."
====


"The key requirements for a vaccine are its proven effectiveness and safety so everything needs to be done very carefully and accurately..."
====


SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


----
----


NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

RT EN ESPAÑOL

Acusan de "monopolio" a Zuckerberg por decir Facebook "podría comprar cualquier 'startup' compet"  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361545-acusar-monopolio-zuckerberg-correos-facebook-comprar-competencia
Trump acusa a Berlín de ser "muy delincuente" en pagos a OTAN, tras retiro de tropas de Alem   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361549-trump-acusar-berlin-delincuente-pagos
Trump firma un decreto que permite exportar el crudo de Texas a México   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361537-trump-anunciar-firmar-decreto-permitir-exportar-crudo
US indica que el incremento de casos de CV empieza a "pesar" sobre la econ nac   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361547-reserva-federal-eeuu-coronavirus-economia
Un hombre pasa 64 días en un hospital  pierde casi todos los dedos por el covid-19   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361523-hombre-perder-dedos-pasar-64-dias-hospital-covid19
Maduro confirma reunión con Noruega sobre un posible diálogo con la oposición  https://actualidad.rt.com/video/361558-maduro-confirma-reunion-noruega-tratar-dialogo
Incendios en Brasil arrasan los humedales más grandes del mundo    https://actualidad.rt.com/video/361544-fuertes-incendios-arrasan-humedales-grandes
US registra casi 1.600 muertos diarios por covid-19 y el total supera los 150.000   https://actualidad.rt.com/video/361529-eeuu-registra-1600-muertos-diarios
----
----


INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

- US Arrogance is a Gas  By Finian Cunningham
- America’s Social Hell   By Chris Hedges
----
----


VOLTAIRE NET ORG   https://www.voltairenet.org/en

The temperature in some Iraqi cities, usually around 45° C in the shade during the summer, has hit a dramatic new high this year. Several cities have recorded averages above 50° C in the shade for more than 30 days, with the temperature failing to drop below 30° C at night.
----
----

DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

====
====

No hay comentarios:

Publicar un comentario