JUL
13 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
WHO's Tedros says
the global pandemic could get "worse and worse and worse" but big-tech stocks keep going "higher and
higher and higher"... until Dallas Fed's Kaplan pooped in the
punchbowl and virus news from California didn't help...
See Chart:
This was
Nasdaq's worst day since 6/26 and a major 4%-plus reversal intraday
For a brief few
minutes, the S&P 500 got back into the green for the year (above
3230.78)...
But could
not hold it...
See Chart:
The early
Short-Squeeze evaporated...
See Chart:
“Most
Shorted” Stocks
AMZN lost
$120 billion in market cap today from top to bottom...
See Chart:
And then
there's TSLA which soared out of the gate to almost $1800 before tumbling back
to try and cling to unchanged...
See Chart:
And today saw a
massive reversal in MTUM...
And Value soared...
VIX soared
back above 32 - its highest since June...
See Chart:
Treasury
yields ended the day lower (after rising into the cash equity open)...
See Chart:
But bonds
never played along with the early exuberance in stocks...
See Chart:
Nasdaq vs
10Y Yield
The
B-dollar index spiked back into the green as stocks began to dive...
See Chart:
EM FX
tumbled as the selling began (led by BRL and MXN)...
See Chart:
Emerging
Markets EM Index
Finally, Bloomberg's Richard Breslow summed up the
farcical, fantasy world of dissonance in which we are living rather well today:
"It does seem a tad mean-spirited to see
all of this equity green, oodles of stories talking about optimism over global
growth, and just not feel all warm and fuzzy. I wonder if
it is on purpose or subconscious that for all the upbeat verbiage there is a
noticeable dearth of the words “risk-on” in market
commentaries. Somehow that strikes me as oddly appropriate.
Probably, a better term for today’s price
action would be “Fed-up,” because we should accept the fact that we are here
for only one reason. The global economy has certainly bounced off the lows.
But it’s hard to express optimism when it’s
taken for granted that it can’t, by any measure, be expected to thrive without
continuing life support."
Nothing
else matters...
See Chart:
Dow vs Fed
Balance Sheet
Election factor: We
do note, however, since The Fed balance sheet
flattened, the market has largely gone sideways as the prediction markets price
in a Democrat sweep of White House, Congress, & Senate...
See Chart:
Prediction
Market: Senate spread. In July
Dems & Reps fall
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...people all around the world are watching
the price of gold steadily hit record highs measured in their own
currency. Or, alternatively, they’reseeing the purchasing power of their own
currency hitting all-time record lows...
We’re seeing our purchasing power
decline. Americans can buy less gold with their
dollars today than they could a week ago, a month ago, a year ago, two years
ago, five years ago, It’s just that it’s not at an all-time record low —
yet.”
See Chart:
USD vs Fiat and USD vs GOLD
The only thing propping up the greenback at
this point is its status s the reserve currency. But
Peter asks the operative question: how long will it
maintain that privilege if the US continues to flood the world with dollars?
In this podcast, Peter also talks about the
trade relationship between the US and China and
products that confiscatory taxation is coming down the pike.
….
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For the US, the last bit
of demographic driven momentum concluded in 2018but the US went to ZIRP
a decade earlier in the demographic cycle ('09) than Japan...
Today, just some comparisons of the Japanese
and American demographic driven zero interest rate policy kickoffs, resulting
in debt explosions, ongoing collapses in births, and declining energy
consumption...yet (thus far) resulting in divergent
asset depreciation/appreciation.
For Japan, 1991 was the conclusion of the last
bit of demographic driven demand growth.
For the US, the last bit of demographic driven
momentum concluded in 2018 but
the US went to ZIRP a decade earlier in the demographic cycle ('09) than
Japan.
Annual Change Working
Age/Elderly, Discount Interest Rate, Debt/GDP, Equities
JAPAN
See Chart:
US
See Chart:
DEMOGRAPHICS & ENERGY
CONSUMPTION
To round out the picture, I show the
correlation of demographics in energy consumption. Charts below are total
primary energy consumption (oil, coal, renewable, nat. gas, etc) blue line,
year over year change in energy consumption (red columns), year over year
change in 20 to 60 year old population (green columns), and the central bank
set discount interest rate (black dashed line).
JAPAN
See Chart
US
See Chart:
Make of
this data what you will and invest accordingly.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/demographics-debt-disappointment-japanifation-americas-economy
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"A
number of those actions were necessary. The key is what we do from here. How
long does this need to go on for?"
Sarcasm aside, and clearly unaware
of the reflexivity behind the market and the Fed's balance sheet, Kaplan said
that "I think it’s wise for us to be telegraphing
as the economy improves we’ll be appropriate in showing restraint and pulling
back some of these programs."
Of course, the moments the Fed
"telegraphs" the economy is improving and
does in fact "pull back" on some of these programs which are charted
below..
See Chart:
Fed’s
Market supporting 13 (3) facilities
... is the moment stocks will
plunge, as by now even 10 year old Robinhood traders know that without the Fed propping up risk assets every single day,
stocks will plunge until such time as the Fed resumes these emergency programs.
In fact, one can argue that today's swoon in Tesla and the broader Nasdaq, which has
since affected the broader market, took place just after Kaplan warned
that the Fed's market support won't last forever,
to which markets made it clear that the support better last forever, or
the Fed will have another crash on its hands in no time.
See Chart:
And speaking of Tesla, - TSLA shares have plunged almost $300 from record highs hit
just a few hours earlier...
See Chart:
.. and the
Nasdaq is suddenly rolling over hard, leading the rest of the market lower...
And
suddenly, 400,000 Robinhood'rs were silenced...
See chart:
Robinhood TSLA holders
Especially
the 40,000 or so that added today
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Forecast on Ec-Pol is an illusion.. Let’s see what happen in Oct. If keep it T win re-elect
...as if it
never happened!
…..
Could happen now if bankers, QEs
& Bail-Outs work.. piece of cake for T team.
But the Nation has to see it & feel
it too. So far abstention is
growing fast:
See Prediction Market: Senate spread. Since July Dems & Reps fall https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm7F89.jpg?itok=WIyDGoil
Even though T can decree ZERO DEBT for Univ graduates from middle & working classes.
Tiene el sarten por el mango. Trump has power & he can do it. Pero si ataca
VEN se jodio. VEN is Trump’ Aquiles heel . 12 Mill latinos in US vs T
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
- Democrats want to extend benefits.
- Republicans, led by Trump seek aback-to work bonus.
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...that would render any vaccine almost
completely useless... and if these findings are confirmed, we can pretty much forget about ever achieving “herd immunity”...
Over the past several months, there has been a tremendous amount of
debate about almost every aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic. One thing that
everyone could pretty much agree on is that eventually this pandemic would end.
Virtually all of us assumed that
one way or another eventually most of the population
would develop COVID-19 antibodies and that once we got to that point the
pandemic would fizzle out. Unfortunately, it
appears that was not a safe assumption to make.
Recently a healthy 37-year-old man, got the virus and took him down. Meaning:
it can take anyone down.
The most advanced scientist in China & Spain still fighting to get
100% accuracy.
At this point –said the
author of this art- the outlook for
fighting this virus is exceedingly bleak, and scientists assure us that it is
just a matter of time before a new pandemic that is even worse comes along.
[ I do believe in Science and I’m
pretty sure they will create the
anti-virus. The worse thing that could happen today is WW3: the level of contamination and
the new type of pandemias to come is impossible to predict. Instead of disseminating FEAR to the current pandemic, we should mobilize people to streets against the
profiteers of wars. That is the urgent task now: ACTION. If we don’t ARM
the PEACE, the profiteers of WAR will kill the whole humanity. ]
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PARENTS
ARE PAYING $50,000 TO RESERVE SPOTS AT NYC PRIVATE SCHOOLS EVEN THOUGH KIDS MAY
NEVER ATTEND
Meanwhile, “schools don’t
even know
if they’re officially going to be coming back.”
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Not only has it spread slower than we were told it would but
the fatality rate is far lower than many "experts"
predicted. Still, this inconsistent beast holds society confused and paralyzed
with fear.
As time goes by covid-19 has proven not to be
the hammer or tsunami we feared. Not only has it spread slower than we
were told it would but the fatality rate is far lower than many
"experts" predicted. Still, this
inconsistent beast holds society confused and paralyzed with fear.
CONTINUE READING AT:
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Government regulators are demanding
banks must not "abandon our cities"...
Many bank branches were temporarily closed for months due to
virus-related shutdowns. Customers heavily relied on online services, and
bankers told FT they hope the pandemic will allow
them to "accelerate branch closures."
Brooks said national banks preparing to shrink branch footprint
must inform OCC three months in advance along with a detailed explanation
of the reasoning.
The latest Federal Deposit
Insurance Corporation (FDIC) data shows 6%, or 4,500 bank branches, have closed
in the last decade.
See Chart:
Brooks said banks must not "abandon
our cities" - after the pandemic, there will be consequences for
these actions.
….
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"It
seems inconceivable to me that the Fed and other central bank balance sheets
will do anything other than explode over the next decade and perhaps
beyond." - Jim Reid
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ASIA FOR ASIATIC POWERS… similar
to ‘America para los Americanos’
"China’s
maritime claims pose the single greatest threat to the freedom of the seas in
modern history..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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THE REST FOR TOMORROW
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