jueves, 31 de octubre de 2019

ND OCT 31 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  OCT  31 19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


US ECON MORE TRICK than TREAT

October ended with the most disappointing macro-economic data since April 2017...
SEE Chart :
US MACRO Surprise Index: -38.30

But stocks were holding up well until China blew it...
China chundered in the trade-deal punchbowl overnight
See Chart:
Market implied odds of a US-China trade-deal .. DOWN to 42.8

And that crushed the gains in stocks that Powell had created...
See Chart:

All major US Stock indices were higher in October, led by Nasdaq (Dow was a laggard) but the last few days has seen selling...
See Chart:

NOTE that US, Europe, and China all saw stocks rise once China returned from Golden Week
US equity gains came on the back of an almost non-stop short-squeeze...
See Chart:
“Most Shorted”  Stocks  DOWN  .. Accodng  RUSSELL 2000

Dow Jones US down . October just in the red, after a big slide intramonth...

Financials outperformed on the month but started to fall back in line with the yield curve in the last few days...
See Chart:

Equity and credit protection costs collapsed in October...
See Chart:

The Dollar Index dived in October (after 3 straight months higher), the worst month since Jan 2018, and back in the red for 2019 (back below 200DMA)...
See Chart:
Down to 1195

While the rest of the world appears to be weakening vs the dollar, the dollar itself is losing notable ground against 'money'...
See Chart:
Dollar (fiat) vs. Dollar (gold)

Finally:  today's vote to formalize the public phase of the House's impeachment inquiry, odds of Trump being impeached by the House have risen to 79% BUT the odds of him completing his first term (i.e. a bet that the Senate will reject impeachment) is at 70%...
See Chart:

The global economic data in October was the worst month since May 2018...
See Chart:
Global Macro Surprise Index: DOWN

And what happens next.. IF THE TREND GOES DOWN
Could happen, especially given the stock market's decoupling from Fed expectations...
See Chart:
DOW  vs. # of rate cuts priced in by end 2020
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Where is the line between "working class" and "middle class"? Maybe there isn't any...
See Chart:
The ever-widening wage gap


Where is the line between "working class" and "middle class"? Maybe there isn't any.
Defining the "middle class" has devolved to a pundit parlor game, so let's get real for a moment (if we dare): the "middle class" is no longer defined by the traditional metrics of income or job type (blue collar, white collar), but by an entirely different set of metrics:

1. Household indebtedness, i.e. how much of the income is devoted to debt service, and
2. How much of the household spending is funded by debt.
3. The ability of the household to set aside substantial savings / capital investment.
4. The security of the households' employment.
5. The dependence of the household wealth on speculative asset bubbles inflated by central bank policies.
6. The percentage of the household income that is unearned, i.e. derived not from labor but from productive assets.
7. The exposure of the households' employment to automation, AI or offshoring.
8. How much of the household income is government transfers: benefits, subsidies, etc.
Continue reading  and see more Charts at;
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Even though the federal government spent more money (estimated to be $300 billion for various programs) and reduced taxes for businesses and individuals the underlying growth rate of the economy did not change one iota.
See Chart:
US GDP QoQ %
See More charts at:
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When the Fed was caught napping in mid-September, the bank treasury side of one of the largest US banks basically took a line from the 1990 Martin Scorsese film “Goodfellas” and told the bank’s capital markets side: “Fuck you, pay me.
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...who cares if we don't get any yield, at least we are signaling just how virtuous we are...

While still small, sustainable financing is growing. There’s been $165 billion of so-called "GREEN"-BOND  issuance from companies and countries this year - more than double 2016’s total - according to data compiled by Bloomberg
See Chart:
Gaining Steam

Of course, as most are aware, "green"-bonds are largely a marketing gimmick, and if central banks really do escalate their buying, then you don't need a crystal ball to forecast that there will be a rise in companies' "Greenwashing" their issuance – using green labels to spend on not so green things!
Nevertheless, The San Francisco Fed is quick to explain the 'benefits' of these "Green bonds"
Continua reading at:
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THE SCARY NEOLIBERAL END:

Governments and central banks have a scary problem in trying to keep public debt under control in this new world...


Financial markets can be a scary place for investors. The US economy is now in its longest expansion on record, the world is seeing record level of total debt and now even some corporate bonds have negative yields.

Take a look at the Bond Vigilantes team’s 2019 Scary Charts.

High YIELS : beware of tourists
See Chart:

Watch out: when there has been the slightest sign of trouble in some large household names this year, these high yield tourists have wanted out at any price. Some high yield bonds have taken a plunge this year, even where the bonds have not defaulted.

So if you’re dipping your toes into high yield, make sure it’s based on a deep understanding of issuers and that there’s nothing lurking in the depths...
See Chart:

If you thought that bonds were the safe and boring part of your portfolio, think again. Take a look at these two bonds, the Argentina 8.75% 2024 and Austria 2.1% 2117.

After Argentina’s relatively market-friendly President Macri was trounced in the primary elections by populist Fernandez, Argentinian bonds were decapitated, with more than half their value chopped off. They now trade at around $40 per $100 par value.

Meanwhile, investors in Austria’s AA-rated 2117 bond this year will be patting themselves on the back for the trade of a lifetime. With a duration of over 50 years, downward pressure on bond yields this year saw the bond almost double in value.
See Chart:
Market suffering from Trade war fatigue


While current IMF figures estimate that the US-China trade war has shaved 0.8% from global growth, with 0.5% added back by global monetary easing, could even more protectionism and larger potential tariffs in the future leave investors wishing for the days of Trump?
See Chart:
How does it take to get a positive real Yield?


Equities are for growth and bonds for income, right? Not in Germany, France, Japan and the UK, where real yields are negative even up to 30 years. In Italy you need to invest for seven years to get a positive real yield.
No wonder investors are looking to emerging market debt in search of yield. Brazil and Mexico provide positive real yields, as does Turkey – but beware an upside surprise to inflation.

This is a scary measure of how far investors are being pushed just to get a positive yield.
See Chart:
Negative Yields spreading to corporate Debts

If you’ve seen enough negative-yielding government debt by now not to be spooked by it, take a look at this next chart.

Even many corporate bonds are now negative yielding. This chart shows the face value of negative-yielding debt in the ICE BofAML Euro Corporate index: now as high as €1 trillion!

Most of this negative-yielding corporate debt is actually in the lower end of investment grade, namely A and BBB.
See Chart:
A Scary World

Governments and central banks have a scary problem in trying to keep public debt under control in this new world.
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Well that de-escalated quickly...
See Chart:
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"It’s complete bulls*** on both counts..."
See Chart:
See more interesting Charts at
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“The FED didn’t just ‘save’ the US financial system, it altered the flow of capital everywhere...” 
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The cryptocurrency’s appreciation thus stands at a staggering 304033233%...
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


"...the Fed puts us at a competitive disadvantage. China is not our problem, the Federal Reserve is! We will win anyway."
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With 232 votes for and 196 against, largely along party lines, the House approved a resolution that puts Trump on the path toward impeachment.
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Make no mistake: taxing the rich is only a speed bump on the road to higher taxes for everyone. The only way to avoid higher taxes is to stop enabling Democrats by raising taxes every time Democrats yell “Boo!”
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


New ISIS message threatens: "America, don't you realize that the Islamic State is now at the forefront of Europe and West Africa?"
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Tensions high after major incident on Israeli-Lebanese border...
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why cut at all instead of turning the taps all the way back to maximum production?
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Rather than their power base diminishing, they are instead working hand in hand with private developers to ensure that they remain the arbiters of the global financial system. So far, they are succeeding...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

-Twitter’s Ban on Political Ads Can’t Address Corporate Money’s Influence on Policy   covering  electoral fraud  coming: buying elections
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION  . Bienvenido el regreso

Chile    ¡CHAO PIÑERA!   Manuel Cabieses Donoso
US:  El retorno del sindicalismo  Phillipe Fournier
PAL-OP:  El pánico al BDS alcanza el punto álgido  Barry Trachtenberg
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ALAI ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

-The plot to destroy Trump presidency By L Johnson  Dems paid by Deep State
-NY Times Hopes the Deep State Wins   By P Craig Roberts                         
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

Jeffrey Sommers   The Poverty of Politics
Nick Pemberton   Bernie, Liz, and Rosa
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team


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