viernes, 4 de octubre de 2019

ND OCT 3 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  OCT 3  19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

 ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


This is the worst start to Q3 in US equity markets since 2008...
See Chart:
Dow Q3 Performance

It seems THE STOCK MARKET IS PLAYING CHICKEN WITH THE FED - sell off to force dovish bias that The Fed would be loathe to disappoint BUT rally back to front-run The Fed's dovish bias and you remove The Fed's need to be dovish...
See Chart:
Dow Futures
Source: Bloomberg

NOTE - the moment the market priced in another 25bps of cuts, stocks soared back.
"the hard part about playing chicken is knowing when to flinch."
China remains closed for Golden Week.
European stocks were lower (with FTSE worst) but chopped around on US ISM before the EU Close (Germany closed today
US markets were just comical - crashing on the dismal ISM data, then exploding higher (on no news) as the funds market priced in more rate-cuts - Nasdaq ended up over 1%!!! (after being down 1% in the morning)

On the week, all US majors remain red, with Trannies the biggest laggards...
See Charts:

And while today's big drop was bid (as we noted above on the back of market pricing in more easing), Gold remains the biggest winner since ISM Manufacturing tumbled...Gold is up 3%, S&P is down 3%
See Chart:

"Most Shorted" Stocks soared on yet another short-squeeze...
See Chart:

1987 again?
See  Chart:
S&P Index Oct 3 2019  vs. S&P Index 1987

Treasury yields all tumbled today but the short-end dropped dramatically (2Y -10bps, 30Y -5bps)
See Chart:

Bloomberg Dollar fell out of bed on the ISM miss and never filled gap (into the red for the week)...
See Chart:

With China on holiday all week, offshore yuan is strengthening...
See Chart:

Gold futures tested up to $1525, legging higher on the ISM Services data
And WTI Futures traded briefly with a $50 handle intraday.
See Chart:

Finally, we will take a brief victory lap as we warned the end of the surge in US macro data would come after the government fiscal year spendfest ended... and indeed, since the end of September, data has collapsed...
See Chart:
Use it vs Lose it

While top-down is not pretty, bottom-up is getting ugly too...
See Chart:

And just in case you weren't nervous about tomorrow's payrolls data... ISM Employment data suggests, you should be!
See Chart:
ISM JOBS  vs.  US Emploees on non-farm payrole total:  49.82
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Officially recession is a decline of GDP production for 2 consecutive quarters..  IF you check GDP in the last 3 months you will see that pumping of USD from thin air (QEs + Bail outs + buying-selling same staff by same Comp & bankers since 2010) got the fake miracle of getting inside the border of 49-50% zig-zag of GPP. I don’t see real growth of GDP. We are inflating this fake miracle at the cost of our future: huge debt is that take out IMF from business. We have now huge Economic Blocs totally independent from IMF. ARG & VEN  are the ones in south America, Peru is next. In Asia, Afr & middle east there ’re more. The chances of creating one single currency from a basket of major currencies for banking & trade world wide are remote. IF happens it won’t include USA  (unless they are ready to covert  USD into gold = paying the dept). Officially we are not in recession but in fact we are in it. Que el borracho se drogue mas with same alcohol won’t make him a sober person. Que duerma y despierte sober no lo convierte en NO alcoholico. His DNA blood is trash. The oficial reports on US GDP growth  are trash too.
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RELATED 1:  QE BY ANY OTHER NAME 
...the Fed measures to calm funding markets, although superficially effective, may not address a bigger underlying set of issues that could reappear.
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RELATED 2.   DOUBLE TOP?  
...tick, tock!
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Since ISM manufacturing disappointed, The Dow has plummeted 1300 points to its lowest since August...
See Chart:
See more charts at:
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"... inflows of new business have almost stalled... firms report a net drop in headcounts for the first time since 2010...weakest back-to-back expansions of business activity since 2009..."
See  Chart:
See more interesting charts at:
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"...at some point, you have to pay the piper."
As Peter Schiff put it in his podcastif the first trading day of the fourth quarter was a sign of things to come, bulls on Wall Street are in for a rough end to the year. In fact, Peter said the party is over and you don’t want to be the last one to leave.
LISTEN VIDEO: 

US manufacturing dove to a 10-year low. The ISM index of national factory activity dropped 1.3 points to 47.8 in September. That was the lowest number since June 2009 – as the US economy was emerging from the Great Recession. A reading below 50 signals manufacturing is contracting. The weak September number follows on the heels of a 49.1 print in August. Analysts had expected a bounce-back to 50.
Yet Donald Trump wants us to believe we have the greatest economy ever. How do we have the greatest economy ever when we have one of the worst manufacturing economies ever? Especially when it was manufacturing that was supposed to ‘Make America Great Again.'”

[ZH: Things just got worse as ISM Services tumbled also, sparking selling across the board]
See Chart:

This was a great party while the party lasted but the party is now over.”
Where did all of this malinvestment come from?
Artificially low interest rates, cheap money sloshing around causing non-economically viable businesses to exist and to thrive.”
As Peter said, at some point, you have to pay the piper.
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"We are starting to see the forward estimates come down now for the mid caps and small caps which have been leading the S&P 500 lower in this earnings recession."
See Chart:
See more interesting charts at:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

GOOD NEWS:
"[Campaign] operations are continuing as usual and he will be at the debate."
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The DEBATE  is scheduled to take place on Oct. 15 in Ohio. No se lo pierda.
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Donald Trump’s supporters are racist“, or “uneducated”, or “unenlightened”, or (fill_In_The_Blank)...  This hate-filled sentiment is clear within the latest corrupt and targeted impeachment attack against the office of the President...
The awakened American middle-class insurgency, led by Donald Trump, is an existential threat to the professional political class and every entity who lives in/around the professional political class. Their entire political apparatus is threatened by our insurgency. The political industry, all of corrupt governance, is threatened by our support through Donald Trump.
Donald Trump is an existential threat to the existence of a corrupt DC system we have exposed to his disinfecting sunlight. Donald Trump is the existential threat to every entity who benefits from that corrupt and vile system.
Who fuels that furnace?
…..US !
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The White House is preparing for a court fight and arguing to the public that its resistance to Congress' requests is justified.
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 US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

There is a strong current of change affecting the international political arena. It is the beginning of a revolution brought on by the transition from a unipolar to multipolar world order...
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The combination of the three obstacles listed above constitutes a grave problem with no easy fix...
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"Even a limited military conflict could evolve into a nuclear war..."
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El military Pakistani que reproduce esta alarma guerrerista es al parecer un infiltrado de la CIA que recibió entrenamiento de agencias del US. Pakistan y la India son los que menos quieren una guerra como la que promueve el US. Solo hay que sacar a ese militar  Pakistani  y el agua de la PAZ vuelve a correr.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
BRA:  Carta al pueblo brasileño  Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Prensa:  La propaganda no es periodismo  Atilio A. Boron
Opin:  Para qué una Europa-potencia?   Bernard Cassen
BRA:  Y Lula dice no a la trampa  Eric Nepomuceno
COL:  El fracking que fractura Colombia  Omaira Sáchica
VEN:  Venezuela se respeta  Lidia Falcón  La verdad es siempre Rev
US: Impeachment a Trump  Nadie sabe para quién trabaja  R Bueno
Ecuad:  Las medidas solo miden al pueblo  A A y  R P
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ALAI ORG
Ya tuvimos AS Const en 1979: La lidero VR Haya de la Torre y la traiciono el aprista Alan Garcia.  Tenemos Constitución y hay que empezar por re-instalarla. Si algo hay que cambiar, para eso seria la Nueva AS-Const. Hay 2 estudios comparat de las Const del 79 y la actual dada el 93 por Fujimori luego del asalto a la democracia el 92. Ambos estudios concluyeron que la mejor Constit fue la de 1979. Quedo claro desde entonces que quienes crearon esas constituciones fueron los 1ros en violarla. De lo que se trata ahora es de crear un Frente Rev de Izquierdas que 1ro derrote a las mafias del APRA y el Fujimorismo y que avance a la creación de una alianza Latina anti-imperialista  que cree  nueva moneda, que decrete la deuda zero en US dólares y plantee la inmediata nacionalización del oro peruano. Tenemos que volver al proyecto que traiciono Garcia de unir los paises del pacifico y atlántico del sur latino con via ferrea y carretera. Esto si nos debe preocupar hoy. El oro peruano y el petróleo VEN serviria para crear una nueva moneda en el sur y unir a los pueblos latinos. China podría  implementar este proyecto. A esto debemos apuntar y la constitución del 79 miro el panorama desde esa perspectiva futurista. Hay que re-instalar la Constitucion del 79. Pero ojo, la Ley mayor es solo un medio, un instrumento para el cambio de la historia. La Ley Constit no cambia la historia, quienes la cambian son los poderes políticos que usan ese instrumento. Hay que unir al labor, a las clases medias y al empresario de sectores productivos (no especuladores) en un solo frente anti-imperialista. Esto nos debe preocupar hoy. Por que? Porque es el imperialismo el obstáculo mayor  al desarrollo de nuestros pueblos. Volveré sobre esto.
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Continuemos con ALAI ORG..
Ya comente este art en mi reporte de ayer y lo dicho arriba lo complementa
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

Charles Davis   ‘It’s Gotta Be Bernie
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies
 
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..

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