ND OCT 7 19 SIT
EC y POL
ND denounce
Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO
HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
It's a dangerous
game for equity investors to be playing but maybe the negative yielding bonds
are creating perverse behaviour nobody could think of just 10 years ago.
See Chart:
See more
charts at
….
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The Fed's nearly free money for financiers policies in
support of the Super-Rich do not exist in a vacuum -the disastrous consequences are already baked in.
What's holding up the U.S. stock
market? The facile answer is the
Federal Reserve ("the Fed has our back," "don't fight the
Fed," etc.) but this doesn't actually describe the mechanisms in play or
the consequences of a market that levitates ever higher on the promise of more
Fed money-for-nothing injected into the diseased veins of the financial system.
As Gordon T.
Long and I discuss in our latest half-hour video program, What's Holding the Market Up? (34
minutes), the primary
prop under stock valuations are corporate buybacks, which total in
the trillions of dollars since the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown and the
Fed's "rescue of the rich," which continues to this day.
Rather than risk capital in
productive investments, U.S. corporations have borrowed trillions of dollars
and used the cash to buy back their own shares. The Fed's suppression of interest rates has incentivized
stock buybacks in several ways:
1. When it's
cheap to borrow billions, the biggest bang for the buck is to use the borrowed
bucks to buy back shares, which creates an illusion of growth as
per-share sales and earnings both rise as shares are withdrawn from the public
market.
2. If a
corporation piles up cash, it becomes an attractive target for acquisition. The
way to avoid being taken over is to pile up debt (borrow money or sell
corporate bonds, swapping debt for equity) and use the funds to buy back
shares. As the corporation's remaining shares soar in value, the company can
use its own shares to acquire rivals.
These perverse incentives are the
heart of the Federal Reserve's policies, as depicted here: as real economic growth has slowed, the Fed's
largesse of cheap money has flowed into corporate buybacks because that's
what's incentivized.
See Chart:
The Fed's nearly free money
for financiers policies in support of the Super-Rich do not exist in a
vacuum--the disastrous consequences are already baked in. As Gordon's chart shows, Fed policies
effectively replace capitalism (investing capital productively and accepting
risk) with creditism, a debt-dependent speculative system that
transfers risk to the Fed and the taxpayers (i.e. profits are private,
losses are socialized).
See Chart:
Needless to say, this doesn't end
well, as expanding
credit and borrowing to fund speculation and consumption inevitably ends in a
currency crisis that devalues the currency for everyone, rich and poor alike.
There's much
more in our video discussion:
….
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An ugly open
overnight - on limited China trade deal - was auto-bid my the machines to make
things look a little better as US trader walked in this morning. But three
notable events triggered swings in stocks (as underlying it all was
Washington chaos).
First,
Fed repo demand picked up again – not what was expected after month-/quarter-end.
See Chart:
Second, Larry Kudlow commented that
delisting China stocks was "off the table" - igniting momentum and sending stocks back to
unchanged.
Third, China made headlines
confirming nothing but what it said over the weekend that a partial deal was
possible, sparking another impulse higher (despite Navarro and Trump
dismissing it as potentially a deal).
It feels like
desperation to keep stocks higher...
A look at
futures (ignoring Friday's bad-is-good squeeze fest for a second) shows the
pump and dumps
Thanks to two short-squeezes...
See Chart:
US equities
chopped around all day but ended with an ugly close in the red... S&P was weakest on the day
See Chart:
All the US majors ended below critical technical levels...
See Chart:
And we note that Small Caps (Russell 2000) confirmed a death
cross (50DMA crossing below the 200DMA)...
See Chart:
The yield curve flattened...
See Chart:
The dollar ended marginally higher on the day, but remained
in a tight range...
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar Index
PMs were lower on the day, oil pumped'n'dumped...
See Chart:
WTI managed to tag a $54 handle before tumbling back to unch...
See Chart:
And don't forget, Golden Week is almost over...
See
Charts: SABOTAGED
but you can see it in the source at the end
Finally, some are starting to wonder if this is having an
impact on stocks...
And here's why that is overall negative for stocks... disregard the stupidity added
See Chart:
Which really shouldn't be a huge surprise as money has been
leaning that way for a while - OR..
See Chart:
Who will win the 2020
Dem Presidential Nomination? E
WARREN of course!
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-chop-repo-ramp-kudlow-comments-trade-trouble-warren-woosh
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The critical point here is that QE and rate reductions have the MOST effect when the economy, markets,
and investors have been “blown out,” deviations from the “norm” are
negatively extended, confidence is hugely negative...
This week, we
are going to review each of the major sectors as compared to the chart patterns
above to determine where money is likely going to, where it is coming from, and
what we need to be on the watch out for.
Let’s start with the UGLY
See Chart:
Current Positioning In Portfolios: No Sector
Holdings, 1/2 weight NSC
Not BAD, More OKAY-ish
See Chart:
Current Positioning In Portfolios: No
Holdings
The Good
See
Chart:
The Hope Of Q.E.
As noted, this “hope” has
kept the bull market narrative alive despite weakening earnings growth and
estimates. In fact, for 2019, the entirety of the
increase this year has been valuation expansion, or rather, investors betting
on “hope” versus the fundamentals.
See Chart:
Will Q.E. Work Next Time?
There are certainly growing indications,
as discussed
previously, the U.S. economy maybe be heading
towards the next recession.
Interestingly, David compared three policy approaches to offset the next recession.
- Fed funds goes into negative territory but there is no breakdown in the structure of economic relationships.
- Fed funds returns to zero and keeps it there long enough for unemployment to return to baseline.
- Fed funds returns to zero and the FOMC augments it with additional $2-4 Trillion of QE and forward guidance.
In other words, the Fed is already factoring
in a scenario in which a shock to the economy
leads to additional QE of either $2 trillion, or in a worst case scenario, $4
trillion, effectively doubling the current size of the Fed’s balance sheet.
The Fly In The Ointment
The effectiveness of QE, and zero
interest rates, is based on the point at which you apply these measures.
The table below compares a variety of
financial and economic factors from 2009 to present.
See Table:
The critical point here is that QE
and rate reductions have the MOST effect when the economy, markets, and
investors have been “blown out,” deviations from the “norm” are
negatively extended, confidence is hugely negative.
In 2009: The extremely negative
environment that existed, particularly in the asset markets, provided a fertile
starting point for monetary interventions. Today, the
backdrop could not be more diametrically opposed.
This suggests that the Fed’s ability to stem
the decline of the next recession may be much more limited than the Fed, and
investors, currently believe.
If more “QE” works,
great. However, as investors, with our retirement savings at risk, what if
it doesn’t?
….
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
"Ultimately we
think Corporate America and US equity investors would learn to adapt to new
political leadership, as they always do."
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Usual
distortion:
...the war goes on in the latest reckless campaign of “whistleblowers” who are no such thing, but
rather agents provocateurs of the Central Intelligence Agency...
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One more
distortion.. SOFT?
“A cage is a cage is a cage. And
humans don’t belong in them.”
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...a vast array of government interference in
individuals’ voluntary exchange relationships substitutes lies for the truth that would otherwise be revealed...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo
Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global
depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
American forces have now moved away from the Turkish border with northern Syria.
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[[ WHAT ABOUT TURKEY?
Does RU want to hide that USA are behind them? And what about the protection to
KURDs .. they are a SYRIAN minority. And why RU didn’t mention ISR, they are in to Golan heights, part of Syria too.
RU only mention the Americans, the biggest liars & and main profiteers of wars. Business is Bss ah! Here a missed detail that could count for RU’
honesty: TURKs & ISR has 48 H to get out Syria ]]
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"Given strained relations with the US, China needs a hedge against its large
holdings of the dollar, and gold serves that function,"
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"I was elected
on getting out of these ridiculous endless wars, where our great Military
functions as a policing operation to the benefit of people who don’t even like
the USA."
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“This is an Isis city – 70,000 people cannot
be controlled,” an SDF spokesman said of
the giant Al Hol prison camp.
====
This despite the
Pentagon claiming to have effectively shut down Northern Syria airspace to
Turkey.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n
GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion
via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search
f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
ALAI ORG
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
- EE.UU. retira sus tropas de la frontera sirio-turca: ¿qué sucede ahora y qué consecuencias se esperan?
- Reportan un ataque de la aviación turca contra una base militar kurda en la frontera siria
- Maduro extiende la "alerta naranja" en la frontera con Colombia
- La "revolución de los zánganos" intensifica protestas en Ecuador contra el 'paquetazo' de Lenín Moreno
- Trump promete a Erdogan "grandes problemas" si algún miembro del personal USA resulta herido en operación turca en Siria Bla bla para salvar al Turko
- Tropas de US abandonan Siria ante inminente operación turca T aplaude oper
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the
US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
- US impeachment escalates with claim of 2nd
whistleblower By P Martin
- The ‘Whistleblower’ Probably Isn’t By Matt Taibbi
- CIA Whistleblower is John
Brennan Hack – A Prop, a Plant and Stooge By Col Jim Waurishuk, USAF (Ret.)
- Will the Russians Ever Learn? By Paul Craig Roberts
- John Lennon vs. Deep State: One Man Against
the ‘Monster’ By JW.
Whitehead
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on
US Politics & Geopolitics
Patrick Cockburn Iraq is in Revolt
John Feffer The New
Age of Protest
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics
& Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
Turkey’s
Safe-zone and Refugee Peace-corridor in Syria Is a Cover for Encroachment and
Territorial Expansion By Sarah Abed
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy
Goodman’ team
-“We
Have to Mass Mobilize”: Laverne Cox & Chase Strangio Sound the Alarm on
Major LGBTQ SCOTUS Cases
- “A
Backlash Against Our Existence”: Laverne Cox Speaks Out on Violence Against
Trans Women of Color
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PRESS TV
Resume of
Global News described by Iranian observers..
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