ND
OCT 27 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social +
Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented
with graphics
The long-overdue adjustment process for the most expensive
secular growth stocks is under way and will continue until valuations become so
cheap that they discount a more achievable outcome on growth and/or the risk of
economic recession.
See Chart:
US Recession
….
See more charts at:
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“The tech industry is the largest source of demand for office
space in the country at this time.”
See Chart:
cash spending - including spending on CapEx as well as buybacks and
dividends - in Q2 plunged 13% Y/Y. It's is hardly a
coincidence that that's when WeWork's troubles first emerged, and when its
bankers scrambled to take the company public.
See Chart:
Cash expending plunged 13% during 2Q 2919
Incidentally, for those wondering just what made this historic
divergence possible, look no further than the companies themselves: in the past
two years, thanks to Trump's tax repatriation holiday, tech companies unleashed
a historic stock buyback spree that makes everything else pale by comparison. It is this furious stock repurchasing by tech companies
that allowed their stock prices to diverge so massively from their underlying
fundamentals.
See Chart:
S&P 500
buyback by sector
Of course, as demands has surged, so have prices, and while overall the
success of tech companies has been good for the labor market, the surge in
rents has been painful for smaller companies. Ten
markets, including the San Francisco Bay Area, Atlanta, and Portland, Oregon,
posted double-digit rent hikes in the last two years.
See Chart:
“We
don’t really see any severe downside scenario.
Ben Bernanke responded
simply:
I guess I don't buy your premise.
It's a pretty unlikely possibility. We've never had a decline in house prices
on a nationwide basis. So
what I think is more likely is that house prices will
slow, maybe stabilize: might slow consumption spending a bit. I don't think
it's going to drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.
That's precisely what the CBRE's head researcher said now.
As for Bernanke, not only was he catastrophically wrong, but his
mistake could not have been greater: just over two
years later, the US economy suffered the biggest financial crisis as a result
of the housing bubble - which was created only thanks to the Fed's easy
monetary policy in the aftermath of the dot com bubble - bursting, and not a
single central banker was ready for that "unlikely possibility.
….
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"beneath the veneer of relative spread resilience
and muted realized defaults, the weak links in the leveraged credit markets are coming under pressure."
See Chart:
US Leveraged loans : ratio of dawn-grades to upgrades
see more charts at:
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..."more consumers than
usual" are now defaulting within
the first few months of borrowing.
See Chart:
Falling behind
see more charts at
….
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There
is a limit to just how many bonds the Fed
can buy, and a deep recession will
likely find the Fed powerless to offset much of the negative effects...
While the bulls were able to string together a decent rally last week, they were unable to capture new highs for the market.
See Charts:
However, between now and the end of the year, there is still room for
an advance. This is why we are suggesting adding exposure “selectively” and “opportunistically” on
pullbacks. As shown below, the market is now trading
below its previous bullish trendline advance which provides resistance to a
further advance to about 3100-3300
currently.
See Charts:
Playing
The Fed’s QE (Not QE)
On Thursday, the Fed announced that they will nearly double the daily
repo liquidity operations to $120 billion, as well they said the sizing of the
14-day term repo programs would rise from $30 billion to $45 billion. For the
most part these daily and term repo operations have been oversubscribed,
meaning there is more demand than liquidity being offered by the Fed. This
growing problem is a reason for the recent announcement of QE (not QE).
(For more on “Repo”
read this.)
As noted by Zerohedge on Thursday morning:
“In
a statement published at 1515ET, precisely when the S&P ramp started (on
Wednesday), the New York Fed confirmed it would dramatically increase
both its overnight and term liquidity provisions beginning tomorrow through November 14th.
‘The Desk has released an update to the
schedule of repurchase agreement (repo) operations for the current monthly
period. Consistent with the most recent FOMC
directive, to ensure that the
supply of reserves remains ample even during periods of sharp increases in
non-reserve liabilities, and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures
that could adversely affect policy implementation'”
See Table:
This is a massive 60% increase in the overnight repo liquidity availability (from
$75 billion to $120 billion) and a 28% jump in the term repo
provision (from $35 billion to $45 billion).
Clearly, the Fed is concerned about something other than the impact of “Trump’s Trade War” on the
economy.
See Chart:
Balance sheet growth overtime based on growth of the Economy
Funding
The Deficit
Every morning, at RIAPro.net, we
post commentary as to what is moving the markets. On Thursday we pointed out a
dynamic in the funding of the U.S. Treasury that few are following despite the
implications it has on monetary policy.
On Thursday, we posted the following:
“Today’s
Chart of the Day is probably one of the most important macro charts to
understand, yet is so underappreciated. The chart highlights that net purchases of
U.S. Treasury debt by foreign investors (central banks, governments,
corporations, and citizens) have been negative over the last two years. This is
occurring as deficits topple the $1 trillion mark. In other words, not
only are trillion dollar deficits being entirely funded with domestic funds,
but domestic funds must also absorb the foreign net selling. To better understand the implications of this new
dynamic, we suggest reading an article we wrote in June titled Who is
Funding Uncle Sam?“
See Chart:
The problem is something we have discussed previously, which is a “dollar
funding shortage.” In other words, the Treasury needs to sell bonds to
cover deficit spending. If there is a “shortage” of buyers,
then the Treasury can’t “raise the money” it needs to meet spending
demands.
Hence the need for the Fed to step into to monetize existing debt so
domestic issuers can take up new issues. We believe the funding situation
is one causes of the overnight funding issues, and the sudden introduction of
QE. As shown, despite deficits not being as large as in
the last recession, the amount of domestic funds required to fund the Treasury
deficit is now larger.
See Chart:
Deficit adjusted for Domestic Purchase
requirement
Continue reading this amazing article at:
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ENTER THE
SELLING ZONE 2.0 MUST READ!
The tectonic plates of the global international economic order are breaking
apart and moving in the wrong direction and valuations are at historic
extremes...
See Chart:
See more interesting charts at:
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"...some experts
have downplayed the recent chaotic behaviour but I take it far more
seriously because it indicates to me that liquidity has become tight"
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds &
corruption. Urge cambio
Tulsi Gabbard seems to be the only politician with the INTELLIGENCE AND
INTEGRITY TO TELL AMERICANS THE TRUTH...
….
What we need to
stop are wars abroad and to do it, we
need to dismantle PENTA and the big Corp profiteering from wars abroad,
starting with the Military Industrial Complex and
others. Then a new GDP MODEL has to be designed
instead of the Keynesian who said that spending drive growth, not savings nor Interest rates. F Hayek recognized that “To
combat the depression by a forced credit expansion is to attempt to cure the
evil by the very same means which brought it about; because WE ARE
SUFFERING FROM A MISDIRECTION OF PRODUCTION”
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"I'm confident that when the american people see the
picture of why we did what we did, their confidence in the institution will be
maintained, restored and protected."
….
We hope so… but this
requires Trump impeachment be
successful. .. and the best defense is a calculated attack.. just like chess game, plan at least
4 moves
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"Reeker was unaware in the June-August period of the
possibility Trump may have withheld the aid..."
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QUID PRO QUO (dar algo para recibir
algo) es un pacto (usualmente secreto o under the table) que puede implicar corrupción (de esto se lo acusa hoy a Trump). La RECIPROCIDAD -en cambio- es un acto ético y no
necesariamente público por quien lo practica,
eso solo brinda confort interno a
quien lo da. Nadie lucha por la paz o contra la guerra por un premio nobel o un puñado de dólares. LA RECIPROCIDAD ES LO
OPUESTO AL QUID PRO QUO. Mucho de lo que practica SOROS es Quid Pro Quo, aunque también hay actos que
entran en lo que se llama pura ética FILANTROPICA (dar
sin esperar nada a cambio, en lo que incluyo el apoyo a Amy Goodman para
Democracy now). El no espera que ella lo ataque, pero estoy seguro que Soros respetaría su opinión si lo hace,
no la consideraría su ‘enemiga’. Soros si tiene enemigos
porque practica el Quid Pro Quo, y diría que si tiene muchos enemigos de peso a quien les teme (por eso dijo ayer que no les
tiene miedo). En realidad si les tiene
miedo, pero Soros es un Zorro con los leones y las
hienas, como lo quería Nicolo Machiavello.
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HOW could SF be a third-world
city if it was so wealthy?
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Because
in San Fco the private greed is more voracious +un-ruled than others
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Soñar que el
gato es de 3 patas sabiendo que tiene 4: A la pedo H no se reza Milagros, si ella entra a política del
Dems party es porque eso es fuente de corrupción: su arte.
Is Bill Maher a 'Russian asset'
too?
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I
don’t think so: he is just a clown in a circus that is in bankruptcy
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A talk with Oleg Tsarev reveals
the alleged identity of the
"Trump/Ukraine Whistleblower"...
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"Chile is not the same
as it was yesterday."
….
Ayer Chile sufrió la
vergüenza de la Democ USAna con del Plan Condor, Pinochet y sus asesinos. Hoy Chile está limpiando esa
vergüenza.
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“We need to make sure that noncitizens are acutely aware
what the rules are for voting, where they might be asked about voting
and how they should say no.”
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US-WORLD
ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D
rest in limbo
The ISIS leader has been killed (again) while trying to flee
into Turkey, and this time we assume he will stay dead.
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Russia's Defense Ministry said no definitive proof of "yet
another elimination" of the terror leader...
….
We said before that we
win Viet Nam (big FF) this one is
bandanna false-flag
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"The American people are no longer partners of government...We are subjects..."
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In a major development brewing for sometime now, India and US
have officially suspended Defense Cooperation after Americans refused to give
India high-end jet-engine technology.
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The ground reality
on why it makes no sense...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on
neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist
imperial chaos
RT EN
ESPAÑOL
- Fernández celebra el triunfo en Argentina y pide a la oposición que ayude "a reconstruir el país de las cenizas que han dejado"
- Resultados preliminares indican que la Presidencia de Uruguay se decidirá en segunda vuelta
- Piñera levanta el estado de emergencia en Chile
- Banco Central de Argentina limita a 200 dólares al mes la compra de divisas tras las elecciones
- Las elecciones en Argentina terminan con la victoria de Alberto Fernández en primera vuelta
- Manifestantes se enfrentan a los carabineros en una nueva jornada de protestas en Chile
- VIDEO: La operación que acabó con la vida de Al Baghdadi
- "Los humillamos en tierra, mar y aire": Comandante iraní promete no permitir la menor agresión contra su país tras las amenazas de Trump
- Keiser Report China vive una economía en "fase de desarrollo" mientras que EE.UU. "avanza en círculos hacia la extinción"
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from
US-NATO allies
-How
Effective is Iran’s Air Defense Sytem? Fending Off US-Israeli Missile and Drone
Attack By South Front,
- UN
as an “Instrument of War”: The
Russia-China Veto Has Protected Syria from Obliteration. What Comes Next? By Carla Stea
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