ND OCT 28
19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
"We're in a more fragile situation where
consumers are more skittish."
We're beginning to see more
evidence that suggests the consumer is the next domino to fall.
Cracks
are developing across the auto loan spectrum as subprime
defaults accelerate at rates not seen since the
dark days of 2008.
See Chart:
Growing
Delinquencies in auto loans
Consumer
Cracks Emerge in Debt Markets
Wall Street has overlooked the
cyclical downshift in employment, which started in January
2019, has caught many analysts off guard, despite the stock market hitting new
all-time highs thanks to President Trump's tweeting.
See Chart:
Job
Growth downturn
The downshift in employment
could spook analysts later this week and through year-end. This alarming trend has forced companies in the last several
months to stop hiring and halt wage increases.
See Chart:
US
NOFARM PAY ROLL
Wall Street's massive bet on
the consumer this late in the cycle is a fool's errand, that is because the consumer has already cracked, and it's the recent
explosion of serious auto delinquencies has marked the death of the US consumer
as the economic downturn is expected to broaden through 2020.
See Chart:
NY FED
CREDIT PANEL: Students debts per capita & Credit card Balance
The big
trend to unfold through 2020 is the implosion of the consumer and a broadening
economic downturn.
….
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Conventional wisdom nowadays says
deficits don’t matter, but that ignores the “vulnerability” of the current
business cycle being so dependent on federal deficits.
The decade-long growth cycle
might appear that monetary and fiscal policymakers have become so adroit that
it can offset every potential dip in economic activity and create an endless
and uninterrupted expansion. That
would be a mistake
One area of potential vulnerability has to be the
scale of continuous support from federal deficits to finance public and private
spending.
In 1990s the federal government
budget recorded a surplus. In the fiscal year ending on September 30th, the US
recorded a $984 billion budget deficit (4.6% of GDP), a
clear sign that in its 10th year of expansion the current cycle is still
heavily dependent on support from the federal sector.
See Chart:
Cumulative
Fiscal Budget Deficit
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/monthly%20deficit%20sept%202019_0.jpg?itok=q3QNjBzJ
The question is not whether
these relatively large deficits can continue but what happens if they do? Based
on current policies, the Congressional Budget Office
projects that annual budget deficits will average $1.2 trillion a year over the
next decade, or 4.7% of GDP, essentially the same scale in relation to the
economy of the past decade.
See Chart:
US
deficit as % of GDP
Throughout the post war period fiscal policy has
been reactive at times, but it has never been so accommodating for so long.
Conventional
wisdom nowadays says deficits don’t matter, but that ignores the “vulnerability” of the current business cycle being
so dependent on federal deficits.
It is always difficult to predict
what “shock” could trigger the next recession, but the reliance on federal deficits to
support public and private spending should draw attention to the structural
weakness of the current cycle. At present, the US economy is
vulnerable to any type of shock, and fiscal policy is in a uncertain position
as it cannot reverse course and introduce fiscal drag into an economy so
dependent on budget deficits, nor is it in a position to help moderate the
effects of a shock if one occurs. Policymakers
understand that they cannot prevent every recession, but large budget deficits add instability to a weak economic environment,
raising the odds of a bad outcome.
….
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See the
last charts here + selected one. Go to
source to see the rest
President Trump was correct
when he forecast this morning that "stocks
would have a good day today,"
as despite disappointing economic data, stocks short-squeezed (again) to new
record highs...
"It's not the
economy, it's the liquidity, stupid!"
See Chart:
US MACRO vs. Global Liquidity Proxi &
S&P
Mixed
day for US stocks with Trannies barely able managed gains while Nasdaq and
Small Caps surged...
See Chart:
While
the S&P makes new highs, the median stock is making lower highs..
See Chart:
ValueLine
Geometric Index
PG&E
shares collapsed even further as millions of Californians remain without power..
See Chart:
And
PG&E bonds were a bloodbath...
See Chart:
Treasury
yields were all higher on the day with the long-end notably underperformin
See Chart:
The
yield curve (3m10Y) steepened dramatically today, shifting to the phase of
imminent recession in the past...
See Chart:
The
dollar chopped around into the US open but ended the day lower...
See Chart:
Despite
a drop in the dollar, oil and PMs had an ugly day after Trump promised a good
day for stocks...
See Chart:
Finally
As US economic data continues to disappoint after Q3's "use it or lose
it" government spend-fest surge...
See Chart:
US
MACRO surprise Index
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmA344_0.jpg?itok=V3LHQ-KC
….
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
“The historical amnesia about the dangers of
communism and socialism is on full display in this year’s report...”
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'WE
WILL NOT LEGITIMIZE THE SHAM IMPEACHMENT': HOUSE MINORITY LEADER RESPONDS TO
PELOSI ANNOUNCEMENT
"...there is no constitutional
requirement that the House of Representatives authorize an impeachment inquiry
before one begins."
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NYC taxpayers have shelled out $89 million on rent alone..
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Mataron al muerto que ya murió varias
veces o está vivo en 1 Hospital RU or del
USA, SOLO la CIA y la KGB lo saben.. Lo cierto es que estaba gravemente
enfermo. ‘Me lo das y yo retiro mis tropas’ puede ser el deal: QUID PRO QUO . FACT: no evidence of death
[[
The blast could be evidence of
‘post rescue’ , to cover the operative ]]
The
compounded was obliterated in a massive airstrike in order “to prevent the
site from becoming a shrine to the leader.”
[[ FOR IRAN:
the killing og Budhdadi “NOT A
BIG DEAL” US REMOVED HIM AFTER HIS EXPIRATION DATE”. If
KILED IN US RAID, MAY FUEL ANOTHER CYCLY of VIOLENCE www.rt.com/newsline/472042
: Us has to move troops out of Syri
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Really murio el muerto? Stained
Underwear only tells
that he was severely ill.
"Test results gave certain
immediate and totally positive identification..."
….
WHY TO BE PROUD OF IT?
RU already said that IF US killed Baghdadi
means a great victory against terrorism. Does it means that US won’t use anymore ISIS type of terrorism or other coming from
SAUDIS?.. The intention of claiming
victory may reveal just the opposite: A-that the death is alive & B-that the US will continue using these resource: terrorism. IF
Baghdadi is death: the same + with Saudis consent. [[ This is a nice
story-tell: ‘The underwear that talks’]]
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George Soros: PEAK
POPULISM OR PEAK GLOBALISM?
The real
fatigue in the West today is having to
listen to these tired, shameless specters shout at us while we drag them
kicking and screaming into the light to burn...
The anomalies of Brexit and Donald Trump’s election were about to be
reversed by the force of his beloved
open society.
But is
that the case?
- If so why can’t Brexit be betrayed once and for all?
- Why can’t Trump be removed from office for all of his crimes against decency?
- Why can’t Open Society Foundation operate in places like Hungary, Turkey and Russia?
- Why are populist, anti-immigration parties like Alternative for Germany (AfD) surging, frustrating Soros’ ideal centrist coalitions that have ruled post-war Europe (and nearly destroyed it) for the past seventy years?
Nearly a year ago I published a
piece called, “Have We
Reached Peak Soros?” in which I outline the hurdles that Soros
and his co-conspirators in The Davos Crowd face over the next
two generations. Anne Rice
….
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In short, there isn’t a continent
that isn’t seeing unrest in some form, and as Branko Milanovic notes today, one
wonders if this isn’t all a little 1968-ish.
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
-
Cuban President Diaz-Canel to Meet Russian
President and Prime Minister During His Visit to Russia
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
ECON: Solo nos queda el capitalismo? Michael Roberts
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ALAI ORG
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
- Pobreza, deuda o inflación: la "pesada herencia" que Macri deja a Fernández en Argentina
- Argentina: El macrismo que no pudo y la vuelta del peronismo
- Sebastián Piñera anuncia el nuevo Gabinete
- Las regionales en Colombia: la victoria del centro, la derrota del uribismo y una alcaldía para un exguerrillero
- Bolsonaro dice que Argentina "eligió mal" (pero no cierra las puertas)
- US MANTENDRÁ SUS TROPAS EN SIRIA PARA "PROTEGER" LOS CAMPOS PETROLEROS LOCALES DEL ESTADO ISLÁMICO
- Militares de EE.UU. afirman que el cuerpo de Al Baghdadi ha sido arrojado al mar Que tiraron al mar? Las cenizas de falso muerto o las mentiras del US
- US confirma que se ha deshecho de los restos de Al Baghdadi, líder del Estado Islámico 1ro lo incineraron a bombazos y ahora hay restos. Un terr de acero? Por que no dicen en que Hospital lo tienen y se dejan de mentir al mundo.
- Debate en RT sobre el futuro de Argentina tras el triunfo de Fernández
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
Caliph closure: ‘He died like a dog’ By Pepe Escobar Que evid tienes de q murió?
U.S. loots Syrian oil : Russian MoD By Mazen/Gh.A.Hassoun
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis
that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO
allies
New
War for Oil? Trump to Occupy Oil-Rich Syrian Province with Tank Corps, Asks for
Kurdish Displacement There By Juan Cole
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
- “People
Have Reached the Limit”: Lebanon Joins Wave of Anti-Government Protests Across
Middle East
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