jueves, 10 de octubre de 2019

ND OCT 9 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  OCT 9  19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


Trump is incompetent to make deals with another power nation.. HE IS USELESS

"They have made no progress."

According to the report, the deputy-level negotiators, led on the Chinese side by vice-minister for finance Liao Min, spent the time focusing on only two areas: agricultural purchases and intellectual property protection. This apparently was not enough.

And confirming that the week's entire negotiation was a fiasco from the start, the SCMP reports that the Chinese delegation is planning to leave Washington on Thursday - one day early - and after just one day of principal-level talks, the SCMP source noted. Beijing’s negotiating team, headed by Vice-Premier Liu He, had previously planned to leave Washington late on Friday, allowing for up to two full days of talks.

Wednesday's announcement that the US would block visa of various Chinese officials did not help.

In any case, with any hopes of even a modest, or mini, trade deal now seemingly collapsed, so have futures, which are puking after hours... (Dow futures -320 points)
See  Chart:


See Chart:
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"...the Fed is monetizing more debt not doing QE than when they were doing QE, which means they are doing it and they are going to have to do more of it...this is a gigantic time bomb; we just have to make sure that the fuse is longer. "

So, what is the next move by central bankers? Schiff says, “It’s more politically expedient to take the printing route, especially because nobody believes they are going to destroy the currency..."

"They think they are going to print enough money to reduce the value of the debt enough to make everything go away. It’s like trying to get a little bit pregnant, which is impossible to do. So, once they start monetizing debt in that way, then that’s it. The dollar is going to get killed. That’s where we are headed. That’s the only thing that hasn’t happened yet. Gold has broken out. Gold is over $1,500 per ounce, and it is hitting record highs in most currencies. Not in the dollar, yet. The dollar is still relatively strong against other fiat currencies, but the fact it is this weak against gold shows you there is a lot of underlying weakness in the dollar that has yet to manifest . . . but that is going to happen. When the dollar starts to fall, that’s going to take the bond market down with it. Long term interest rates are ultimately going to rise when the dollar tanks.”
See Chart:


Schiff predicts President Trump will not get re-elected but not because of impeachment, but the failing economy. Schiff says, “The trade deficits are bigger than they have ever been. They are bigger than they were under Obama..."
"Manufacturing is already in recession, and it will be deeper in recession by the time the election comes. The numbers are the worst they have been since 2009.

Most blue collar voters who voted for Trump in 2016 will be worse off in 2020. They will have more debt, and they will have lower real wages if they even have jobs.

Now, who are they going to take a chance on, some socialist Democrat who is promising to punish the rich and take their money and give it to them?
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RELATED:

"...situations have turned negative." 

Some of the hardest-hit companies in the loan space in the last three months have been Amneal Pharmaceuticals, whose $2.7 billion loan due 2025 plunged about 80 cents on the dollar, and Seadrill Operating whose $2.6 billion loan maturing in 2021 only commands 53 cents on the dollar, said Bloomberg. 

See Chart:


Another of the hardest-hit sectors in the loan market is energy, with $12 billion of loans falling more than ten cents on the dollar. Consumer and health care sectors are next, with collectively $13 billion in loans outstanding that are starting to become distressed. 
See Chart:


With cracks developing in the loan space, the current meltdown is going unrecognized by most of Wall Street (which didn't end well in 2008 or 2015 for stocks).
See Chart:


The accumulation of excessive leverage and high exposure to loans of non-financial companies adds to the uncertainties that corporate America, as highly leveraged as it is, could see an epic implosion as the next recession could arrive as early as 2020.
[[ that is: before elections; SO Trump has no chances for re-election.. better quit now ]]
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TO DECET YOU:  Trade deal odds had lifted...
See Chart:
Market – Implied odds of a US_China trade deal


BUT, despite ‘gains today’, US majors remain red on the week...
See Chart:


Volume overall was notably weak - around 30% below average...
See Chart:


Treasury yields were all higher across the curve.. BUT ended below 0.0421
See Chart:


Finally, the median stock is trading at a key trendline level...
See Chart:
Value Line Geometric Composite Index


And don't forget, it's all about fun-durr-mentals... below -3.90
See Chart:


Is it time for another quant-quake?
See Chart:
Market-Neutral Momentum

Sad to see it.. but THE NEOLIBERAL COLLAPSE IS REAL
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Here a claim to be skeptical on all findings show below..Does it deserve to be read?


...a closer examination of a new NEW YORK TIMES ARTICLE TAKING AIM AT TRUMP'S TAX-CUTS, provides several clear signs that something fishy is going on with the underlying numbers....

Does this Picture reveals all  or nothing?  You decide!:

While supporters of wealth taxation quickly claimed vindication for their cause in these findings, a closer examination provides several clear signs that something fishy is going on with the underlying numbers.

Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, two UC-Berkeley economists who are also currently advising the Elizabeth Warren campaign for president show that the overall tax burden (federal, state, and local) on the ultrarich, defined as the top 400 earners, has now fallen below the rate paid by even the poorest decile. As the chart below implies, these findings also represent a long-term regressive shift in taxation over the past 70 years.

See Chart:
Total Tax Rate (Federal, State and Local)


The rich always pay & have who can defend them:

The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) maintains a separate estimate of the average state and local tax burden across the income quintiles found in the CBO series. According to ITEP’s most recent numbers, the top 1 percent currently pays an effective state and local tax rate of about 7.4 percent. The bottom quintile pays about 11.4 percent. These numbers confirm the moderate regressivity of state and local taxation, but they are also far short of being able to reverse the more pronounced progressivity of federal taxation.

Jason Furman, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama, combined the CBO and ITEP estimates in response to the New York Times report. His main figure appears below, and it confirms that the overall tax distribution for the most recent available year in both series (2016) is clearly progressive. Even though state and local taxes do increase the burden on the poor, the wealthiest earners still pay a much higher tax share. 

See Chart below
Average Tax Rates by before-Tax Income distribution, 2016 


As of this writing, neither economist has offered a clear answer save to note that their methods will be included in their forthcoming book release on the subject. Zucman has hinted in his comments since the Times article that their 2018 estimates work around the IRS release by using available totals of corporate tax revenue, and distributing it across the top 400 earners to get their results.

Since all above researchers  didn’t provide additional details of the exact assumptions that went into the 2018 estimate, their approach seems both premature and empirically dodgy. [[ Why? because you can’t take a position on key matters of life?]]

Saez and Zucman released their new findings by providing privileged access to a friendly newspaper’s editorial page. Rather than shedding light upon important questions of scholarly inquiry, the result is a splashy story designed to capitalize on the news cycle and lend support to partisan electoral politicking. More analysis is needed, rooted in established methods and publicly available sources since the CBO and ITEP  story is also likely wrong.
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Along with being Amazon'd, the big box retailers are adopting automation at a light-speed pace and havecut over 42k jobs in the last 12 months.
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio



"This is a significant shift in the factual timeline."
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"This is unprecedented in terms of what all of us are facing as a community. We are doing everything we can to minimize the impact on our customers’ lives."
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Trump paid propaganda against E Warren may her stronger

"From predominantly black neighborhoods in Detroit to Navajo communities in the southwest...
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Trump has ZERO credibility in our nation. His lies are easy to decipher-uncover. Trump already owes money to our Nation for his campaign : Trump Owes More Than $840,000 in Security Costs for Campaign Rallies  
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo



...it’s no secret, all across the Global South, that under the cover of a benign umbrella promoting democracy and human rights, the NED works as a soft-power mechanism actively interfering in politics and society...
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XENOPHOBIA AGAIN .. this is idiotic

"It is outrageous that the Chinese Communist Party is using its economic power to suppress the speech of Americans... we urge you to suspend NBA activities in China until govt-controlled broadcasters end their boycott" [shut your ass idiot]
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[[ China has nothing to do with the economic disaster we suffer.. this is total responsibility of Trump: the bad & incompetent administration we have.. worse even than Nixon’ who had the decency of quit before election. IF someone has to go to concentration camps, run by Dems, is Trump. We don’t have to send it to China.. they don’t accept any type of US pork. ]]
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FALSE FLAG AGAIN:  it is with the complicity of Trump that Turks’re bombing Syria

Turkey will pay a "big economic price" if the Syria operation is done "unfairly" ?? Trump said; meanwhile at least 8 ?? Syrian civilians have been killed in the opening hours of the assault. 
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This also counts with the complicity of RU whose oil business is at stake. RU should have sent the proper weapons to Syria to defend themselve
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They believe ‘stupidity’ is the rule in our time:

The Fed rhetoric that implies end of cycle is being confirmed by the continued data deterioration. The Fed got behind the curve, and now they are now attempting to catch up.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


- Erdogan Expresses Hope to Discuss F-35 Exports With US Despite Trump's Threats So, Trump is not falling in his trap.. nor Erd-trap. He is supporting Erdogan attack to Syria
- Turkish Defence Min Outlines Reasons Behind Its 'Operation Peace Spring' in Syria  The only real “operation peace” for Syria will be the bombing of Turkish towns
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

Opin: Evitaremos la catástrofe mundial?  Felipe Portales
BOLIV:  Bolivia en una encrucijada  Jeffery R. Webber
ECOL:  LAS MARIONETAS  Gustavo Duch 
FEM:  Globalización e "Ideología de Género"  Juan Carlos Pinto
Ecuad:  paquetazos  No son medidas, es un modelo  Napoleón Saltos  
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ALAI ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

-Syria - Turkey Again Invades  By Moon Of Alabama
- Betraying Kurds is the American Way  By Finian Cunningham
- Reheating the Cold War   By André Vltchek and Ross Ashcroft
- Lost wars can bring down empires  By Lawrence Wilkerson
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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